Tix Picks, Wednesday 27/11/24

Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Hereford, Market Rasen and Wetherby.
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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Market Rasen...

And we'll follow the money and head to Lincolnshire and Market Rasen's good to soft/soft ground for six races starting with...

Race 1 @ 12.05...Top-weight Catchim finished 42P423 in PTP races before winning by 2¼ lengths on his debut under Rules at Southwell over a trip of 2m4½f where he jumped pretty well after a clumsy effort at the first. That run will stand him in good stead, of course, but he's carrying a 7lb penalty for that win and has been off the track for 169 days.

I think he's probably still good enough to make the frame, but this race is surely all about Tripoli Flyer, who won a Class 2 bumper at Lingfield in January and was a one-length runner-up to stable mate Horaces Pearl in a Grade 2 bumper at the Aintree Festival with subsequent Grade 2 hurdle winner Valgrand three lengths further back. Tripoli Flyer's hurdling debut saw him finish as a runner-up again at Chepstow three weeks ago after seven months off track. He should come on for the run and it's hard to imagine him not winning this.

Best of the rest are probably the expensive (140,000 Euro) Queens Wish, a 6 lengths winner on her sole PTP run and Bennetshill, who was a well beaten second of four at Southwell twelve days ago, but it's just (6) Tripoli Flyer & (1) Catchim for me here.

Race 2 @ 12.40...This race has somewhat fallen apart overnight with half of the six-runner field being withdrawn. Of the three that do run, Brave Jen brings the best recent form to the table, having finished 231 in her last three, getting off the mark at the fourteenth (!) time of asking at Sedgefield three weeks ago.

The fact that she was 0/13 at the start of the month says how poor this race is. Traveling Soldier was beaten by 53 and 57 lengths in his last two outings and Chief Sunday went down by 26 lengths at Aintree a month ago.

I'm not being caught out in a 3-runner race, though, so all three go on my ticket builder with Brave Jen just about the least worst of the three and Chief Sunday the biggest threat on handicap debut down two classes and three furlongs.

Race 3 @ 1.15...Camino Rocio is 2 from 2 since moving to Jim and Suzi Best's yard and being fitted with a visor and although he's up 6lbs for his win at Huntingdon a fortnight ago, he's surely the one to beat here. Elsewhere Knocknagappagh returns from seven months off hoping to recapture the form that saw her finish as a runner-up three times inside five starts last winter, whilst Sadlers Bay comes back from a 10-month break hoping to pick up where he left with finishes of 34223 in his last five outings.

Stuti makes a chase debut after a win and four places from nine starts in bumper/hurdles races, having made the frame in three of her last four and her yard is 2 from 2 in Market Rasen chases this year. Dunworley returns from a near seven month absence, but the penny seemed to be finally dropping for him last time out when third home at Huntingdon, whilst Goguenard returns from a similar lay-off to make his chase debut. He returned to action last January after a year off the track and finished 1121 in his first four starts after the break, so if adapting tot he bigger obstacles, the time off might not as much of an issue.

That said, this shouldn't be too hard to win and I expect (6) Camino Rocio to complete a one-month hat-trick for the Bests. (3) Sadlers Bay is probably my second choice with (4) Stuti the back-up plan.

Race 4 @ 1.50...I think I'd have been on Skyjack Hijack here to complete a sixth win on the bounce, but both he and in-form West To The Bridge were withdrawn this morning forcing me into a rethink, which has led me initially to (2) Harbour Lake who has 5 wins and 3 places from 14 over hurdles, won by 2.5 lengths after a six month break at Aintree 18 days ago and was a winner here back in October 2022 on his only previous visit. His jockey is 5 from 15 here over the last year and has made the frame in 11 of 23 rides over the last fortnight, whilst the yard's 26 runners in that fortnight have a 50% place strike rate.

Elsewhere, Supreme Gift probably needed the run after 192 days off when 7th of 12 at Cheltenham a month ago, but he had ended his last campaign with results reading 213 all in a visor that he wears again today. What A Johnny is steady if unspectacular and has only failed to finish ion the first three home once in his six efforts over hurdles so far, winning at both Stratford on debut a year ago and at Perth in April. He also looked like needing the run last time out when finishing weakly at Carlisle.

Bottom weight Giovanni Change is interesting, this 9yo has been around the block a few times and on a positive note has 4 wins and 2 places from 11 hurdles races over 2m5f to 3m here at Market Rasen and is the only course and distance winner in the pack. He's also 9lbs lower than his last winning mark and has a 5lb claimer on board too, but he comes here after finishing last of 12 over 2m1f at Carlisle, 20 lengths behind the winner and was only 8th of 9 here over course and distance last time out, beaten by some 68 lengths.

If we get last season's Giovanni Change, then 20/1 price ticket looks massive, but I suspect we'll get this August's runner instead, so I'll take (2) Harbour Lake to beat (8) What A Johnny here with (3) Supreme Gift as the alternate, but don't be afraid of putting Giovanni Change on your tickets, you never know!

Race 5 @ 2.25...Fantastic Lady is joint best-off at the weights and won this race two years ago. She hasn't raced for seven months just as she hadn't when winning here back in 2022 and did land a Grade 2 contest at Sandown last time out. Apple Away was second and then third in Grade 2 chases at the start of the year and landed a Listed event at Perth two starts ago back in April. He probably needed the run after six months off when 4th of 7 at Kelso a month ago and we should remember that he's a Grade 1 hurdle winner.

Marsh Wren is 12113 over fences so far and was a solid third of nine in a Grade 2 at this year's Cheltenham Festival having won a 2m6f Thurles Listed contest three weeks earlier. That 2m6f is the longest she has raced, so she's unproven/untested at 3m+. La Renommee is two from four in handicap chases this year and was a runner-up in back to back Listed chases in December/January last season. She'd be a surprise winner here, I think, but she should be involved in the shake-up.

Sire Nomine's career consists of six Hunter Chase runs, where she has finished 312111, culminating in her landing the Festival Challenge Cup at this year's Cheltenham Festival. She hasn't raced since then and this is a step up in quality, so whilst there's no doubting her ability, she might be one for next time out.

Tough call here, but my 1-2 would be (1) Fantastic Lady & (3) Marsh Wren

Race 6 @ 3.00...Anytrixwilldo has only tackled fences twice so far and looked like he was getting the hang of it last time out when beaten by not much more than teo lengths at Hereford a fortnight ago and a similar run puts him in contention for at least a place here off the same mark. Percy Veering has had a third wind op, but ran really well immediately after each of his previous two including over this course and distance in March 2023. More recently he was a faller at Wincanton in January and well beaten by 36 lengths in a four-runner event at Leicester in March, so massive improvement is needed here.

Sir Rock is two from four over fences, having won back to back races at Plumpton and Fontwell last December/January. A return to Plumpton in March saw him finish second of five, beaten by a neck before a seven month break. Sadly he hasn't been the same this season, going down by 34 lengths over hurdles back at Fontwell before being pulled up 3 out having tailed off in a 2m4f chase there earlier this month. Pats Dream got off the mark at the eighth attempt at Ayr earlier this month, winning a 12-runner handicap by a neck on what was his yard debut for new handlers. He is up 7lbs for that win, which is a little harsh, but he's the 'in-form' runner in a poor looking contest.

My shortlist is completed by (6) Coolmoyne whose form over 3m+ in 2024 reads 24132 and was a creditable second of six at Sedgefield most recently despite coming off a 141-day absence. He runs off the same mark here and whilst more of a place prospect than a winner, should go well and I'll take him as my next best to (5) Pats Dream with (2) Anytrixwilldo the backup option.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (6) Tripoli Flyer & (1) Catchim

Leg 2: (1) Chief Sunday, (3) Brave Jen & (5) Traveling Soldier

Leg 3: (6) Camino Rocio, (3) Sadlers Bay & (4) Stuti

Leg 4: (2) Harbour Lake, (8) What A Johnny & (3) Supreme Gift

Leg 5:  (1) Fantastic Lady & (3) Marsh Wren

Leg 6: (5) Pats Dream, (6) Coolmoyne & (2) Anytrixwilldo

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

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• Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24