TNR

Tom Nelson Racing Service Review

Tom Nelson Racing Service Review

Tom Nelson Racing

Tom Nelson Racing

Next in the firing line is Tom Nelson Racing

Tom Nelson Racing send out an email every morning around 10.00am advising you which horses to back at UK race meetings. The email is very clearly and follows the following pattern :

Time & Meeting : Selection
Stake & win or E/W followed by advised odds and bookie(s) to use.

All a Tom Nelson subscriber needs to is place the bet and wait. This service is slightly different from services we've reviewed in the past here at Geegeez, in that it uses variable stakes, based on the author's assessment of the horse's chance of winning.

Stakes range from 1.5pts all the way up to a maximum of 6pts, some bets are win bets and some are E/W selections and it is recommended that you allocate a 200pt betting bank for the Tom Nelson Racing service.

I've been watching this one for a while now and was just waiting for November changeover month to end before bringing it to the site, but historically this one has perfomed well.

Since inception on 15th July of this year until the end of November, Tom Nelson Racing has suggested 329 bets and stakes of 1765pts with profits returned amounting to 285.68pts.

This means an average stake size of 5.36pts and an ROI of 16.2%. There have been 172 (win & e/w combined) winning bets at a strike rate of 52.3%, making for excellent reading and creating a fairly high expectation level.

The cost of receiving the daily selections becomes more affordable with a longer subscription and can be broken down as follows :
Monthly at £29.95 (98.5p per day)
Quarterly at £69.95 (22.1% discount off the monthly price)
Lifetime membership at £149.95 ( just 5 months subs)

All payments are handled by Clickbank, so you've the added security of a full, no-quibble, 60-day money back guarantee if you're not entirely satisfied and if subscribing to Tom Nelson from this review or a link elsewhere on Geegeez, you can have your first month for just £4.95 via this link! (or by clicking the Tom Nelson name anywhere on this page!)

I probably shouldn't be advising this, but my advice would be to take the lifetime sub, pay £4.95 and paper trade. If you're not happy, you can always cancel before the £149.95 is taken.

David Sutton is going to trial Tom Nelson Racing (aka TNR later) for the next 60 days and considering that the average bet size is 5.36pts, he's going to play this at just £2 per point to line the review up with the rest we run.

We'll be using the advised odds/bookies as sent to us in the TNR daily email and making any Rule 4 or Betfair commission deductions as applicable.

Chris Worrall

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Tom Nelson Racing Review Results

TNR Day 1 : 01/12/2014

3.50 Kempton: Pathway To Honour, 5pts @ 5.00 BOG : 2nd at 1.44

Daily Result : 0/1 : -5pts (-£10.00)
Overall : 0/1 (0.00% SR) : -£10.00

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TNR Day 2 : 02/12/2014

1.00 Sedgefield: Mount Haven, 5pts @ 1.57 BOG : u/p at 1.50
3.20 Southwell, North Country Boy, 3pts E/W @ 7.00 BOG : u/p (3rd!) at 8.00

Daily Result : 0/2 : -11pts (-£22.00)
Overall : 0/3 (0.00% SR) : -£32.00

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TNR Day 3 : 03/12/2014

Lingfield - Haines 2pts @ 2.75 (BOG) : 3rd at 1.91
Kempton - Time Check 5pts @ 1.73 (BOG) : 2nd at 1.58
Kempton - Thomas Blossom 3pts ew @ 3.5 (BOG) : Won at 3.25

Daily Result : 1/3 : +2pts (+£4.00)
Overall : 1/6 (16.67% SR) : -£28.00

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TNR Day 4 : 04/12/2014

Wincanton - Ziga Boy 3pts EW @ 3.75 (BOG) : Won at 4
Wincanton - Shy John 1pts EW @ 12 (BOG) : u/p at 5
Kempton - Thecornishcowboy 1pts EW @ 6.5 (BOG) : 3rd at 5

Daily Result : 2/3 : +8.9pts (+£17.80)
Overall : 3/9 (33.33% SR) : -£10.20

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TNR Day 5 : 05/12/2014

Sandown - Vyta Du Roc 3pts @ 2.88 (BOG) : Won at 2.75
Exeter - Flashy Star 5pts EW @ 7.5 (BOG) : 10th at 11

Daily Result : 1/2 : -4.36pts (-£8.72)
Overall : 4/11 (36.36% SR) : -£18.92

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TNR Day 6 : 06/12/2014

Chepstow - Royale Django 2pts @ 3.5 (BOG) : u/p at 5.00
Wetherby - Many Stars 2pts @ 2.25 (BOG) : 2nd at 2.00
Wolverhampton - Baltic Prince 2pts @ 3.1 (BOG) : 2nd at 2.63

Daily Result : 0/3 : -6pts (-£12.00)
Overall : 4/14 (28.57% SR) : -£30.92

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TNR Day 7 : 07/12/2014

No bets today

Daily Result : 0/0
Overall : 4/14 (28.57% SR) : -£30.92

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TNR Day 8 : 08/12/2014

Kempton - New Style 3pts EW @ 7 (BOG) : u/p at 8

Daily Result : 0/1 : -6pts (-£12.00)
Overall : 4/15 (28.57% SR) : -£42.92

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TNR Day 9 : 09/12/2014

2.10 Fontwell: Theatrical Star, 5pt win @ 3.00 BOG : won at 2.25

Daily Result : 1/1 : +10pts (+£20.00)
Overall : 5/16 (31.25% SR) : -£22.92

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TNR Day 10 : 10/12/2014

Hexham - Deep Resolve 5pts @ 2.75 (BOG) : Won at 4.50

Daily Result : 1/1 : +17.50pts (+£35.00)
Overall : 6/17 (35.29% SR) : +£12.08

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TNR Day 11 : 11/12/2014

Newcastle - Trust Thomas 2.5pts @ 2.62 (BOG) : 2nd at 2.25

Daily Result : 0/1 : -2.50pts (-£5.00)
Overall : 6/18 (33.33% SR) : +£7.08

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TNR Day 12 : 12/12/2014

Doncaster - Red Devil Boys 2pts @ 3 (BOG) : BD at 2.2
Wolverhampton - True Course 5pts @ 2.75 (BOG) : Won at 2.75

Daily Result : 1/2 : +6.75pts (+£13.50)
Overall : 7/20 (35.00% SR) : +£20.58

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TNR Day 13 : 13/12/2014

Wolverhampton - Ambitious Boy 0.5pts EW @ 12 (BOG) : u/p at 21
Wolverhampton - Bertie Blue Boy 0.5pts EW @ 15 (BOG) : u/p at 21
Wolverhampton - Star Links 0.5pts EW @ 17 (BOG) : u/p at 26

Daily Result : 0/3 : -3.00pts (-£6.00)
Overall : 7/23 (30.43% SR) : +£14.58

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TNR Day 14 : 14/12/2014

No bets today

Daily Result : 0/0
Overall : 7/23 (30.43% SR) : +£14.58

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TNR Day 15 : 15/12/2014

No bets today

Daily Result : 0/0
Overall : 7/23 (30.43% SR) : +£14.58

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TNR Day 16 : 16/12/2014

Southwell - Thorpe Bay 3pts EW @ 3.5 (BOG) : 3rd at 5.5
Kempton - Habeshia 3pts EW @ 3.5 (BOG) : u/p at 3.5

Daily Result : 1/2 : -6.30pts (-£12.60)
Overall : 8/25 (32.00% SR) : +£1.98

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TNR Day 17 : 17/12/2014

Newbury - Communicator 5pts @ 2.62 (BOG) : u/p at 2.75

Daily Result : 0/1 : -5.00pts (-£10.00)
Overall : 8/26 (30.76% SR) : -£8.02

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TNR Day 18 : 18/12/2014

Southwell - Generous Dream 3pts EW @ 4.5 (BOG) : u/p at 4.5
Towcester - Toot Sweet 5pts @ 3.5 (BOG) : Won at 4
Exeter - Bredon Hill Lad 3pts EW @ 4 (BOG) : Won at 5.5

Daily Result : 2/3 : +25.88pts (+£51.75)
Overall : 10/29 (34.48% SR) : +£43.73

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TNR Day 19 : 19/12/2014

Ascot - Champagne Present 2pts @ 1.8 (BOG) : u/p at 2.25
Ascot - Yanworth 2pts @ 2.62 (BOG) : 2nd at 3

Daily Result : 0/2 : -4.00pts (-£8.00)
Overall : 10/31 (32.26% SR) : +£35.73

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TNR Day 20 : 20/12/2014

Haydock - Sleep Heaven 1pts EW @ 6.5 (BOG) : Won at 5.5
Haydock - Greywell Boy 1pts EW @ 6 (BOG) : 3rd at 4.5
Lingfield - Triple Star 1pts EW @ 7 (BOG) : u/p at 7

Daily Result : 2/3 : +4.60pts (+£9.20)
Overall : 12/34 (35.29% SR) : +£44.93

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TNR Day 21 : 21/12/2014

No bets today

Daily Result : 0/0
Overall : 12/34 (35.29% SR) : +£44.93

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TNR Day 22 : 22/12/2014

Bangor - Restraint Of Trade 3pts @ 1.95 (BOG) : Won at 2.1
Kempton - Brigliadoro 0.5pts EW @ 8 (BOG) : 2nd at 7
Kempton - Secret Asset 0.5pts EW @ 15 (BOG) : 3rd at 8.5

Daily Result : 3/3 : +4.58pts (+£9.15)
Overall : 15/37 (40.54% SR) : +£54.08

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TNR Day 23 : 26/12/2014

Towcester - Obistar 1.5pts @ 4.4 (BOG) : u/p at 4.33
Wincanton - G'Dai Sydney 1.5pts @ 3.5 (BOG) : 3rd at 4.5
Sedgefield - Baraboy 1.5pts @ 4.33 (BOG) : 3rd at 4

Daily Result : 0/3 : -4.5pts (-£9.00)
Overall : 15/40 (37.50% SR) : +£45.08

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TNR Day 24 : 27/12/2014

Southwell - Rita's Boy 5pts @ 1.57 (BOG) : Won at 1.25

Daily Result : 1/1 : +2.85pts (+£5.70)
Overall : 16/41 (39.02% SR) : +£50.78

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TNR Day 25 : 28/12/2014

No bets today

Daily Result : 0/0
Overall : 16/41 (39.02% SR) : +£50.78

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TNR Day 26 : 29/12/2014

Leopardstown - Hurricane Fly 5pts @ 1.83 (BOG) : Won at 1.83

Daily Result : 1/1 : +4.17pts (+£8.33)
Overall : 17/42 (40.47% SR) : +£59.11

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TNR Day 27 : 30/12/2014

Taunton - Tsar Alexandre 1pts EW @ 8 (BOG) : 2nd at 9

Daily Result : 1/1 : +0.80pts (+£1.60)
Overall : 18/43(41.86% SR) : +£60.71

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TNR Day 28 : 31/12/2014

Lingfield - Barchan 2pts EW @ 3 (BOG) : u/p at 2.5

Daily Result : 0/1 : -4.00pts (-£8.00)
Overall : 18/44 (40.91% SR) : +£52.71

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TNR Day 29 : 01/01/2015

Catterick - Kayersberg 5pts @ BSP (BOG) : ur at 1.73
Cheltenham - Ptit Zig 3pts @ 2.38 (BOG) : Won at 2
Cheltenham - Vaniteux 3pts @ 3 (BOG) : 2nd at 2.63

Daily Result : 1/3 : -3.86pts (-£7.72)
Overall : 19/47 (40.42% SR) : +£44.99

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TNR Day 30 : 02/01/2015

Southwell - Deuce Again 5pts @ 1.5 (BOG) : Won at 1.35

Daily Result : 1/1 : +2.50pts (+£5.00)
Overall : 20/48 (41.67% SR) : +£49.99

Your first 30 days for just £1

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TNR Day 31 : 03/01/2015

Sandown - Aurore Destruval 3pts @ 2 (BOG) : Won at 2.5
Sandown - L'Ami Serge 5pts @ 1.5 (BOG) : Won at 1.44

Daily Result : 2/2 : +7.00pts (+£14.00)
Overall : 22/50 (44.00% SR) : +£63.99

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TNR Day 32 : 04/01/2015

No bets today

Daily Result : 0/0
Overall : 22/50 (44.00% SR) : +£63.99

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TNR Day 33 : 05/01/2015

Wolverhampton - Oasis Spirit 1.5pts EW @ 7 (BOG) : 2nd at 5.5
Wolverhampton - Miss Minuty 1.5pts EW @ 3.5 (BOG) : Won at 3.5

Daily Result : 2/2 : +4.80pts (+£9.60)
Overall : 24/52 (46.15% SR) : +£73.59

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TNR Day 34 : 06/01/2015

No bets today

Daily Result : 0/0
Overall : 24/52 (46.15% SR) : +£73.59

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TNR Day 35 : 07/01/2015

Kempton - History Book 3pts EW @ 5.5 (BOG) : 2nd at 6

Daily Result : 1/1 : +0.00pts (+£0.00)
Overall : 25/53 (47.17% SR) : +£73.59

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TNR Day 36 : 08/01/2015

Catterick - Intense Tango 3pts @ 1.57 (BOG) : Won at 1.5
Leicester - Bidourey 3pts @ 1.62 (BOG) : Won at 1.45
Catterick - Verona Opera 3pts @ 1.73 (BOG) : Won at 1.4
Southwell - Quest For Wonder 3pts @ 2.88 (BOG) : Won at 2.25

Daily Result : 4/4 : +11.40pts (+£22.80)
Overall : 29/57 (50.87% SR) : +£96.39

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TNR Day 37 : 09/01/2015

Wolverhampton - Dream Child 2.5pts @ 1.91 (BOG) : Won at 2

Daily Result : 1/1 : +2.50pts (+£5.00)
Overall : 30/58 (51.72% SR) : +£101.39

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TNR Day 38 : 10/01/2015

Kempton - Cocktails At Dawn 1.5pts @ 2.75 (BOG) : u/p at 2.1
Lingfield - Turning Times 1.5pts @ 2.88 (BOG) : u/p at 3.5
Kempton - Open Hearted 1.5pts @ 5 (BOG) : 3rd at 4.5

Daily Result : 0/3 : -4.50pts (-£9.00)
Overall : 30/61 (49.18% SR) : +£92.39

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TNR Day 39 : 11/01/2015

No bets today

Daily Result : 0/0
Overall : 30/61 (49.18% SR) : +£92.39

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TNR Day 40 : 12/01/2015

Wolverhampton - Harwoods Star 5pts @ 1.91 (BOG) : u/p at 1.45

Daily Result : 0/3 : -5.00pts (-£10.00)
Overall : 30/62 (48.38% SR) : +£82.39

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TNR Day 41 : 13/01/2015

Southwell - Queen Of The Skies 3pts EW @ 3.75 (BOG) : u/p at 3.5
Southwell - Scarborough 3pts EW @ 4.5 (BOG) : Won at 2.38
Fakenham - Master Rajeem 5pts @ 2 (BOG) : 2nd at 2.1
Southwell - Carlanda 3pts EW @ 9 (BOG) : u/p at 7.5

Daily Result : 1/4 : -4.40pts (-£18.80)
Overall : 31/66 (46.97% SR) : +£73.59

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TNR Day 42 : 14/01/2015

Lingfield - Dat Il Do 3pts @ 1.91 (BOG) : Won at 3.25
Newbury - Sugar Baron 5pts @ 1.8 (BOG) : Won at 1.67
Lingfield - Nancy Astor 3pts @ 1.73 (BOG) : 2nd at 1.73
Kempton - Thomas Blossom 3pts @ 1.91 (BOG) : 3rd at 1.91

Daily Result : 2/4 : +4.75pts (+£9.50)
Overall : 33/70 (47.14% SR) : +£83.09

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TNR Day 43 : 15/01/2015

Wolverhampton - Boboli Gardens 3pts @ 3.25 (BOG) : Won at 2.5

Daily Result : 1/1 : +6.75pts (+£13.50)
Overall : 34/71 (47.88% SR) : +£96.59

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TNR Day 44 : 16/01/2015

Lingfield - Tavener 1.5pts EW @ 3.25 (BOG) : u/p at 3
Lingfield - Pearl Blue 3pts @ 2.75 (BOG) : u/p at 3
Wolverhampton - Symbolic Star 3pts @ 1.62 (BOG) : Won at 1.44

Daily Result : 1/3 : -4.14pts (-£8.28)
Overall : 35/74 (47.29% SR) : +£88.31

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TNR Day 45 : 17/01/2015

Ascot - Sprinter Sacre 5pts @ 1.91 (BOG) : 2nd at 1.67

Daily Result : 0/1 : -5.00pts (-£10.00)
Overall : 35/75 (46.67% SR) : +£78.31

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TNR Day 46 : 18/01/2015

No bets today

Daily Result : 0/0
Overall : 35/75 (46.67% SR) : +£78.31

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TNR Day 47 : 19/01/2015

Bangor - Mantou 3pts @ (BOG) : N/R
Bangor - Kaki De La Pree 3pts @ (BOG) : N/R
Wolverhampton - Persona Grata 3pts @ 1.91 (BOG) : 2nd at 1.73
Bangor - Mahler Lad 3pts @ (BOG) : N/R

Daily Result : 0/1 : -3.00pts (-£6.00)
Overall : 35/76 (46.05% SR) : +£72.31

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TNR Day 48 : 20/01/2015

Wetherby - Grand Meister 3pts EW @ 13 (BOG) : u/p at 12
Southwell - Thorpe Bay 3pts EW @ 3 (BOG) : Won at 2.63

Daily Result : 1/2 : +1.50pts (+£3.00)
Overall : 36/78 (46.15% SR) : +£75.31

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TNR Day 49 : 21/01/2015

Lingfield - Mr Bossy Boots 5pts @ 2.38 (BOG) : Won at 2.5
Lingfield - Bertie Blue Boy 3pts EW @ 3.5 (BOG) : Won at 2.75

Daily Result : 2/2 : +17.06pts (+£34.13)
Overall : 38/80 (47.50% SR) : +£109.44

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TNR Day 50 : 22/01/2015

Fakenham - Rathlin Rose 3pts @ 1.8 (BOG) : Won at 1.67

Daily Result : 1/1 : +2.40pts (+£4.80)
Overall : 39/81 (48.15% SR) : +£114.24

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TNR Day 51 : 23/01/2015

Lingfield - Honourable Action 1.5pts @ 3.75 (BOG) : 3rd at 3.5
Wolverhampton - Spiritoftomintoul 1.5pts @ 3.5 (BOG) : u/p at 3.5

Daily Result : 0/2 : -3.00pts (-£6.00)
Overall : 39/83 (46.99% SR) : +£108.24

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TNR Day 52 : 24/01/2015

Cheltenham - Robinsfirth 1pts EW @ 9 (BOG) : u/p at 8
Cheltenham - Saphir Du Rheu 2pts @ 3.25 (BOG) : Won at 4
Lingfield - Field Game 2pts @ 4 (BOG) : u/p at 5

Daily Result : 1/3 : +2.00pts (+£4.00)
Overall : 40/86 (46.51% SR) : +£112.24

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TNR Day 53 : 25/01/2015

No bets today

Daily Result : 0/0
Overall : 40/86 (46.51% SR) : +£112.24

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TNR Day 54 : 26/01/2015

Wolverhampton - Smalljohn 1pts EW @ 11 (BOG) : u/p at 8

Daily Result : 0/1 : -2.00pts (-£4.00)
Overall : 40/87 (45.97% SR) : +£108.24

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TNR Day 54 : 27/01/2015

Southwell - Barbs Princess 2.5pts @ 3.05 (BOG) : Won at 3.25

Daily Result : 1/1 : +5.63pts (+£11.25)
Overall : 41/88 (46.59% SR) : +£119.49

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TNR Day 55 : 28/01/2015

Chelmsford - Twin Turbo 1pts @ 2.5 (BOG) : Won at 2.2

Daily Result : 1/1 : +1.50pts (+£3.00)
Overall : 42/89 (47.19% SR) : +£122.49

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TNR Day 56 : 29/01/2015

Wincanton - Brook 2pts @ 2.38 (BOG) : u/p at 3.25

Daily Result : 0/1 : -2.00pts (-£4.00)
Overall : 42/90 (46.67% SR) : +£118.49

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TNR Day 57 : 30/01/2015

No bets today

Daily Result : 0/0
Overall : 42/90 (46.67% SR) : +£118.49

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TNR Day 58 : 31/01/2015

Sandown - Pain Au Chocolat 3pts @ 2.75 (BOG) : Won at 2.25
Sandown - Champagne West 3pts @ 3.5 (BOG) : Fell at 2.88

Daily Result : 1/2 : +2.25pts (+£4.50)
Overall : 43/92 (46.74% SR) : +£122.99

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TNR Day 59 : 01/02/2015

Punchestown - Avant Tout 3pts @ 3.5 (BOG) : u/p at 4

Daily Result : 0/1 : -3.00pts (-£6.00)
Overall : 43/93 (46.23% SR) : +£116.99

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TNR Day 60 : 02/02/2015

Lingfield - Sperrin 3pts EW @ 8 (BOG) : u/p at 5
Wolverhampton - Don't Be 5pts @ 2 (BOG) : Won at 1.8
Lingfield - Kind Invitation 3pts EW @ 4.33 (BOG) : u/p at 5.5
Wolverhampton - Graphic 3pts @ 4.5 (BOG) : Won at 3.75

Daily Result : 2/4 : +3.50pts (+£7.00)
Overall : 45/95 (47.36% SR) : +£123.99

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Simple, concise, reliable and profitable.  Tom Nelson Racing wins the Ronseal "Does What It Says On The Tin" award and a big thumbs up from me.

The numbers are very good for this service but TNR gets extra marks for being so consistent over the 60 day trial.  It took a few days to get going but the general trend is upwards as the graph below illustrates.

chart1 (1)

Both months covered by the trial - December and January - were profitable and even at £2/point, the cost of the service was easily recouped.  It could argued that the £2/point is a bit low and to provide a fairer comparison with other trials at £10 staking, something closer to £3.50 to £4 per point would have been closer to the mark.  It doesn't affect the profitable outcome but the results are much more impressive.

Aside from the bottom line, the A/E stat is also good.  In my calculations, I classify an each way selection as two bets, one for the win and another for the place.  For the trial, TNR gave 53 winners from 135 runners at odds which suggest 'expected winners' of 47.55 therefore, the A/E stat of 1.11 is good.  And Archie?  For the trial, it works out as 0.96 which, I interpret to mean that the service does not rely on luck to achieve these results.

 

Your first 30 days for just £1
7 replies
  1. cyril winter says:

    Sounds good – tempted, but checking the payment form nearly got conned as the next payment is shown on 4/2/15!!! This means that the £4.95 only covers 1 day.

  2. john says:

    For promotional purposes, I decided to try this service. When I joined mid March 2015 they were already 14 points down. Come the close of March another 18.7 points were lost. Yet if you go to the website, they claim a profit of over 17 points for March. Also they are posting the names of incorrect winners. For instance, they claim a 0.5 point win bet on Gabrial for the Lincoln. The tip was in fact for Gabrials Kaka in the same race. On occasion, the tips received and the stake involved smacked of desperation in an attempt to claw back an increasing deficit. Not a service I shall be passing on.

  3. john says:

    hi,

    After I pointed out the various discrepancies to Darren at Betting Gods, my subscription was immediately cancelled without my say so.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi John

      Just to say that we are investigating your claims and, if there’s found to be substance to them, we’ll be withdrawing our support not just for this service, but for all Betting Gods services.

      Matt

      • Matt Bisogno says:

        Having checked in with both yourself and Darren, there was indeed an error in the result reporting which you were kind enough to spot and share. Overall, however, I’m happy that the results have been reported fairly and accurately – that error aside (two Gabrial’s in the same race).

        Tom Nelson service made a small profit in March, and continues to perform well for subscribers. Having looked over the results myself, I disagree that the staking and tips “smack of desperation”. Indeed, the bigger stakes/shorter priced selections performed extremely well, with the 5 point win bets netting 50.9 units profit in the month clear of stakes.

        Matt

  4. Betting Gods (@BettingG0ds) says:

    Just wanted to clarify that yes, Clickbank who handle our payments do indeed use US formatting on the dates.

Comments are closed.