Top Trainers And Job Jockeys…

Continuing the week of luvvly jubbly freebie action, dear reader, I've got some more racing personnel to keep on the right side of, plus an update on the super seller system that was published earlier in the week...

First up then, let's take a look at the last quintet of quid-nabbers (not brilliant alliteration, I'll grant you, but it is difficult with Q's!):

Season Last 14 Days
Tom Dascombe 23-106 +£5.20 5-19 +£13.25 Trainer
C E Brittain 21-112 +£37.62 4-16 +£26.50 Trainer
R A Fahey 40-254 +£72.95 12-71 +£12.56 Trainer
A Kirby 31-217 +£5.73 5-30 +£13.90 Jockey
C Gannon 12-133 +£47.88 6-36 +£111.53 Jockey

Some of these chaps have already added to their tally since I ran the numbers on Monday, so my apologies for not getting these out sooner.

Note that Cathy Gannon, who is another excellent lady rider, had an 80/1 winner which skewed her stats. Nevertheless, even accounting for that, she'd still be 31 quid up on the fortnight. Two interesting facts about that 80/1 winner:

1. Gavin's brother, Gary, emailed him and told him he fancied it. Gavin ignored it.

2. It paid over 250/1 on betfair SP, which might be the longest odds winner ever on there!

Regular readers of the blog will know that I often tell you to find lady riders to follow. Here's why:

- people bet with their prejudices

- people assume (possibly correctly) ladies are not as strong as chaps

- most punters are male, and perhaps a tad chauvinist (though not, of course, the extremely well informed readership of this 'ere blog!)

What I am about to say is one of the best pieces of betting advice I've ever given, and I urge you to think about this.

If the majority of the money wagered is based on a fundamental prejudice, this gives the more savvy amongst us a BIG opportunity to collect at value odds.

I am something of a contrarian - that is, I look to angles that other people ignore or turn their nose up at. The favourites in sellers system is a classic example. Even though the horse is favourite, because of the class of the race, it is sent off at a bigger price than it should be, despite being the best horse in the race.

That rarely if ever happens in high grade races.

So look out for the ladies. Look out also for the good up and coming jockeys. William Buick and Freddie Tylicki are excellent prospects.

Your first 30 days for just £1

And look out for up and coming trainers. Everybody knows about Tom Dascombe now, but he was still little known more than a year ago when I posted this on Nag3:

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/2008/04/not-just-any-old-tom-dick-or-harry.html

So keep an eye out for these guys. They'll likely be winning low grade races, but you get paid 4/1 in a seller and a Group 1 race just the same.

********

Ok, to the seller system I put up earlier in the week. Doubtless on the back of a two from two start, people were clamouring to find the next 'golden egg' from this particular systemic goose. Of course, as we all know in our heart of hearts, it doesn't work like that (said in a Northern Nationwide Building Society advert accent). Even if we hope it does. So, by the laws of averages and common sense, expect the next couple to lose.

However... my Flat Racing Profiles man, David Peat, sent me some further research regarding all weather sellers under similar criteria - I've copied his findings below:

Year    Bets    Wins    P/L    Strike Rate
2009    14    8    6.4    57.14%
2008    21    8    -0.78    38.1%
2007    26    10    3.06    38.46%
2006    24    6    -3.27    25%
2005    27    10    3.13    37.04%
2004    24    10    0.07    41.67%
2003    35    16    12.95    45.71%

Table 1
AW Selling Races
Favourite (Clear)
Must have run in a seller last time out

Must have finished 1st 2nd and 3rd

Year    Bets    Wins    P/L    Strike Rate
2009    12    6    0.9    50%
2008    18    8    2.22    44.44%
2007    22    9    2.06    40.91%
2006    21    5    -3.77    23.81%
2005    25    10    5.13    40%
2004    22    10    2.07    45.45%
2003    29    14    9.95    48.28%

Table 2
AW Selling Races
Favourite, Joint Fav, Co Fav
Must have run in a seller last time out
Must have finished 1st 2nd and 3rd

The jolly in the 3.05 Brighton might be of interest for the super seller system. There's no all weather action today.

Look out for those guys at the top of this post and the ones previously mentioned this week, and remember to keep your prejudices away from your betting slips! 😉
Happy Friday,

Matt

9 replies
  1. paul preston says:

    Very useful information thanks.
    Are the A.W. sellers restricted to 4y.o. and over as the turf sellers are?

  2. David says:

    Hi Matt

    Interesting stat that although the jolly didn’t win the 3.05 Brighton, the winner was clear fav in the Racing Post betting forecast, and aged 4.

    Food for thought.

    Regards
    David

  3. Matt Bisogno says:

    Hi David,

    Like I said, they win about 40% of the time, not 100% of the time!

    So after two winners, we should have expected reversal, as per my post above… (there are NO golden geese in horse racing…)

    Best Regards,
    Matt

  4. David says:

    Hi Matt

    No, I realise that, especially after the number of years that I’ve been following racing! All I was suggesting is maybe use the RP forecast fav as they’re never far off the mark.

    Keep up the good work.

    Regards

    David

  5. nikibarton says:

    just a quick question,are you paper trading your systems or using your hard earned cash

    not that it matters

Comments are closed.