Tortoise and The Hare 11th June 2012

With 14 unplaced bets (8 win, 6 place)yesterday, the current P/L for the week is -30.65 with today and tomorrow to go.

With the two contenders for today having one major thing in common, I thought I'd give some insight into how each was selected. The first is Little Eaglet in the 5 o' clock at Newton Abbott.

Outsider (greater than 10/1 for our purpose) winners of 27 furlong races are invariably aged 8 to 11 years, the youngest of that set scoring most. Our selection is 8y.o. Outsiders winning class 5 hurdles are most likely to do so over Good to Soft. Our selection last ran on soft in Jan 2010, coming a reasonable 9L 4th of 11. What our selection has in common with our second runner is that BOTH won the race they are contesting today last year. In Little Eaglet's case, off 6lb higher than today.

Our second runner is Campbonnais in Roscommon's 8p.m. race. Outsider winners in Irish Chases happen more often in Soft/GS than any other ground. Outsider winners of races of 24.5F are almost always aged 6,7 or 8. Of the four 7y.os in this big field, two are greater than 10/1. Our Victoria has only succeeded over this distance in a pointer, but our choice, Campbonnais, won this race last year. Although 11lbs higher today, he has been prepped for this with a recent run at Kilarney to ensure race-fitness and the significant booking of champion Irish jockey Davy Russell.

N5.00 Little Eaglet 20/1, 28, 6
R8.00 Campbonnais 12/1, 17, 5*

5* = match or cancel at off.

Have fun! 🙂

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