Andy Newton continues with his weekly look on the yards that are worth keeping on the right side of.
EMMA LAVELLE (5 winners from her last 11 runners, 45% strike-rate): Only had a limited number of runners this month, but with 5 of them going in, including a decent 13/2 winner at Cheltenham on Wednesday, then as we draw to the end of the NH season she could be a trainer to have on your side. With new stable jockey, Noel Fehily, out with a broken leg after his Grand National tumble then there should be some nice spares flying around, but with 41 winners now for the season from just 215 sent to post this is already their best-ever campaign in terms of successes. Looking at their prize money won, however, they are still way off (currently on £258k) their best total of £362k (2008-09), but they are boasting an impressive +£23 level stakes profit with their runners so far this season. They’ve had less runners over fences this term, but do have 20% strike-rates with their runners over both sets of obstacles, while they are just 3 from 27 with their NH Flat runners.
Upcoming Entries and Track Stats: Cheltenham (5 from 51, 10%), Newbury (7 from 76, 9%), Southwell (2 from 15, 13%), Wincanton (9 from 44, 20%), Stratford (7 from 38, 18%)
DAVID SIMCOCK (3 winners from his last 7 runners, 43% strike-rate): Has had 54 runners so far in 2012, but 11 of them have won, while a massive 37 have finished fourth or better. 49 has been their best so far in a season (2010), so they will certainly have the 50 mark as a firm target, but with no Dream Ahead to mop up the leading sprint races this season I think they will do very well indeed to get near the £803k they banked last season. Martin Lane gets the bulk of the stable rides, but look out for when Jamie Spencer is booked too – he was on their easy 5/1 winner on Monday. Upcoming Entries and Track Stats: Newmarket (5 from 56, 9%), Wolverhampton (24 from 172, 14%), Newbury (1 from 19, 5%)
HUGHIE MORRISON (3 winners from his last 7 runners, 43% strike-rate): Does have the odd runner over the sticks to look out for and his Cecily Parsley is on a hat-trick after a recent Towcester double. However, his other two recent winners have been on the level and with the new flat season starting to get going then it looks as if his runners are ready to hit the ground running. Jockey Darryll Holland has been on both of those flat successes, while their Responsive ran well to finish fourth in a hot race at HQ this week. After a decent AW winter campaign that now puts them on 12 winners from just 37 runners (33%, +£46). Last season they fired in 50 winners on the flat, but they will have 57, their best-ever in 2009, as their target. Especially keep a look out for any Southwell runners on the AW – they are 40 from 157 (25%, +£39) at the fibresand track.
Upcoming Entries and Track Stats: Wolverhampton (10 from 88, 11%), Newbury (9 from 106, 8%), Bangor (1 from 2, 50%), Nottingham (5 from 34, 15%)
ED DUNLOP (4 winners from his last 11 runners, 36% strike-rate): Hamdan Al Maktoum’s new jockey, Paul Hanagan, has been on three of their last 4 winners and with the yard looking to have a decent string this season then I’m expecting big things again from the Dunlop team. 74, back in 2001, was their best winners tally for a season, but they have consistently bagged around 40-50 since, but with prize money easily breaking £500,000 in all bar one of the last 13 seasons then they are certainly one of the more reliable yards out there. That said, it doesn’t pay to just back their runners blind as the last year they showed a level stakes profit was back in 1996. If there is one stand out stat from the last 5 seasons it’s to probably avoid their 4+year-olds as they’ve only sent out 26 winners from 289 in that age group since 2008. They do, however, excel with their 3 year-olds, so keep this age group on your side.
Upcoming Entries and Track Stats: Newmarket (4 from 74, 5%), Wolverhampton (30 from 145, 21%), Newbury, Nottingham (8 from 65, 12%)
BILL TURNER (5 winners from his last 14 runners, 36% strike-rate): With 18k banked already this season they are a quarter of the way to making this their best season since 2006 – with £76k to beat. Based in Somerset they always do extremely well with their juveniles each season and with 5 of their 7 winners coming with their youngsters already this term then this pattern looks like continuing. Over the past 5 seasons they’ve won more races with their 2 year-olds and banked more prize money too than any of the other age groups. In terms of sheer numbers they will be eyeing the 24 winners they managed in 2004 as a target and being almost a third of the way there I suspect they might just do it. Do also keep an eye out for the odd runner over the sticks – they are 6 from 85 so far this season.
Upcoming Entries and Track Stats: Fontwell (2 from 34, 6%), Bath (3 from 34, 9%), Wolverhampton (18 from 136, 13%)
KEITH DALGLEISH (3 winners from his last 11 runners, 27% strike-rate): Now in his second season, but with 39 winners in his debut campaign then he’s clearly a trainer going places. Stonefield Flyer, who was runner-up in last season’s Windsor Castle, is their stable star, but he’s done very well with a lot of other trainer’s cast offs and I’m sure it won’t be long before some of the bigger owners come knocking. His old riding colleague, Joe Fanning, gets the bulk of the rides and has been on all three of their recent winners, while with 16 successes already in 2012, from just 77 runners, then I fully expect them to get 50+ winners for the season. Finally, make a note of anything they run up at Ponterfract next Monday – they are currently 3 from 4 runners there!
Upcoming Entries and Track Stats: Newmarket (0 from 1), Thirsk (0 from 2), Nottingham (no runners), Pontefract (3 from 4, 75%)
PAUL NICHOLLS (13 winners from his last 53 runners, 25% strike-rate): Many people thought this season would see Nicky Henderson grab the trainers’ title, and until around 4.30pm on Saturday that still looked the case. However, as we all know the rest is history after the Dicheat handler pulled one last rabbit out of his hat to land the biggest prize of all – the Aintree Grand National. I suspect they will saviour the moment as looking ahead to 2012-13 it will be very hard for them to contain the Henderson camp – but you never know! That GN meant they broke the £3m barrier – something I suspect has never been done before, but with 131 winners they still trail both McCain and Henderson in that respect – not that I’m sure Nicholls is bothered. You can expect to see their runners ease of a tad from here on in, but there is still plenty of jumping action left, not to mention the having the favourite for the Scottish Grand National in Saturday and, of course, the Punchestown Festival, a track they are 4 from 11 at, next week.
Upcoming Entries and Track Stats: Cheltenham (67 from 460, 15%), Ayr (4 from 36, 11%), Fontwell (34 from 100, 34%), Bangor (5 from 28, 18%), Stratford (19 from 65, 29%), Wincanton (60 from 227, 26%), Punchestown (4 from 11, 36%)
JOHN GOSDEN (6 winners from his last 29 runners, 21% strike-rate): Been a regular on here over the winter months due to his 20 AW winners and with the turf campaign hotting up then at least we know the Gosden horses are starting in good nick. In fact a monster 53 of their 77 runners (69%) so far in 2012 have finished third or better and with a big season last year then they will be setting their sights high once again. They’ve only broken the 100 winners in a season mark three times since 1989, with 99 their tally last year, but they did win over £2.5 mill in prize money in 2011 and will be hoping for more of the same with stable jockey, William Buick, looking better each season. Looking ahead to the season anything they send to Brighton (5 from 12), Thirsk (3 from 8) or Ripon ( 3 from 7 ) should be noted.
Upcoming Entries and Track Stats: Newmarket (33 from 216, 15%), Ripon (3 from 7, 43%), Newbury (22 from 128, 17%), Thirsk (3 from 8, 38%), Nottingham (11 from 70, 16%), Wolverhampton (22 from 96, 23%)
This Week’s Cold Trainer..........
Henrietta Knight (82 days and 28 runners without a winner)
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