Trainer Stats: 9th May 2012

Ruth Carr's Horses Are Revving....

This week there are a few smaller stables to look out for on Andy Newton's hot trainers list........

 

DENIS COAKLEY (3 winners from his last 5 runners, 60% strike-rate): Not a trainer most punters will know a lot about, but with 7/1, 6/1 and 12/1 winners in the last week or so, from just a handful of runners, then the Coakley stable are certainly making a name for themselves. They have in fact held a licence since 1999, with 14 winners in 2005 the best they’ve managed so far. However, this Berkshire-based outfit have shown a level stakes profit in 4 of the last 8 seasons and with +£20 so far this term then they are on track to improve that record. Jockey Eddie Ahern has ridden 2 of their three recent winners, with Tadhg O’Shea getting the leg-up on the other, while it could be significant that they are 2 from 3 with their 3 year-olds. Yes, being such a small yard it will be almost impossible for them to continue at this rate, but in the short term, and while we know their horses are clearly in good heart then they should be followed. In the coming months keep an eye out for anything they run at Bath – they are +£65 and have a 22% strike-rate there (50% with their older horses), while at Folkestone they are 2 from just 7.
Upcoming Entries and track stats: Yarmouth (0 from 5), Lingfield (1 from 16, 6%)


MARK USHER (4 winners from his last 8 runners, 50% strike-rate):
Another of the smaller stables that are keeping the bank manager at bay at present with six of their last seven runners finishing second or better. They added another 7/1 winner on Bank Holiday Monday to maintain their excellent strike-rate, but it is worth pointing out that their Katmai River (entered again at Lingfield on Friday) has been responsible for two of those 4 recent winners having won twice in a week at Brighton. Jockey David Probert’s stats for the yard in recent weeks read 2-1-1, while they used the promising Racheal Kneller on their Bath winner. That actually puts them on 10 for the season now, and will be gunning to better last season’s tally of 28 – their best-ever. They are also another yard that can go a bit under the radar – backed up by the fact they’ve show a level stakes profit in 3 of the last 4 seasons. If they send anything to Epsom over the coming months take note – they are 2 from 4 at the Surrey venue, while it’s also worth pointing out they do have the odd runner over the sticks too, and were 2 from 16 last season.
Upcoming Entries and track stats: Newton Abbot (0 from 2), Wincanton (0 from 2), Market Rasen (0 from 4), Lingfield (1 from 23, 4%), Nottingham (3 from 31, 10%)


VICTOR DARTNALL (4 winners from his last 9 runners, 44% strike-rate):
Got a mention last week, and with a 16/1 winner at Exeter on Tuesday then they rewarded my confidence. They do also have plenty entered at Newton Abbot and Wincanton on Thursday this week, so hopefully they can continue their good form. Jockey Denis O’Regan has been on two of those recent winners, while they did also have a runner on the flat up at Catterick on Tuesday. They ended last season with 24 winners over the sticks and have now show a level stakes profit in 5 of the last 7 campaigns. In terms of track stats then it could pay to look out for any Market Rasen runners – they are 3 from 6 there, while at Exeter they are 21 from 90 (23%, +£29). Upcoming Entries and track stats: Newton Abbot (4 from 36, 11%), Wincanton (9 from 48, 19%), Warwick (0 from 7), Uttoxeter (8 from 41, 20%)

 

ROBIN BASTIMAN (3 winners from his last 9 runners, 38% strike-rate): It’s actually three winners from his last 7 runners, while 7 of his last 8 runners have finished third or better – all signs the Bastiman yard are worth a second glance at the moment. Best known for training double Nunthorpe winner Borderlescott, who was an excellent second at Chester earlier in the week, the yard seem to have a fair few nice ones to keep them ticking over this season, and one I think you should keep a look out for is Lizzy’s Dream. She’s been an impressive winner of a couple of Wolverhampton  handicaps, but won in the style of a horse to follow and keep an eye on her turning up in some decent handicaps in the coming months. In terms of sheer numbers, yes, they are only on 5 for the new season, but their best ever was last term with 15 winners and then look certain to smash that. You will find most of their runners at the more northern tracks, so if they do send any down south then take note – especially Lingfield (turf) – they are 1-from-1 there, while at Goodwood and Brighton they are 1-from-4. Upcoming Entries and track stats: Hamilton (2 from 17, 12%), Ripon (0 from 20), Thirsk (1 from 20, 5%)

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AIDAN O'BRIEN (8 winners from his last 28 runners, 29% strike-rate):
Had a great weekend landing both Guineas at HQ, but not such a good time with the ill-judged ride his son have St Nicolas Abbey at The Curragh on Monday, but with such a fantastic record at the Chester May Meeting it would have been foolish to leave them out this week. Yes, the Ballydoyle handler is currently 9 from his last 23 runners on the Roodee and despite most of them going off well-fancied he’s actually also showing a nice +£33 level stakes profit at the track too. Keep a special look for anything they run in Thursday’s Chester Vase, having won that in three of the last 6 years, and also Friday’s Dee Stakes – a race they’ve landed in two of the last 7 years. In the UK they are now 3 from just 6 runners, while after a slow start things are starting to fly over in Ireland too with 10 winners now from their 62 sent to post. Looking at their UK figures their best-ever season has been 20 winners (2001, 2005 & 2008), so they will be hoping to better than and the fact they are already 7/2 to land all 5 British Classics (already won 2 of them) then with Chester, Royal Ascot, York and Newmarket to come then you suspect they will go close to bettering that. Upcoming Entries and track stats: Chester (8 from 20, 40%), Cork (13 from 76, 17%), Leopardstown (65 from 375, 17%)


RUTH CARR (6 winners from her last 24 runners, 25% strike-rate):
I remember from last season that when the Ruth Carr horses started to go in then more often than not they tended to have a flurry of winners that followed. At present 10 of their 15 runners have finished third or better, including 4 winners, and in jockey James Sullivan I think they have one of the best up-and-coming pilots on the flat. They ended 2011 with 40 winners, which was their best yet since starting in 2008, and with 8 already are already 20% of the way to bettering that. It’s also worth pointing out that it’s probably best to ignore any 2 year-old runners as in the last 5 seasons they are just 1 from 42 with their juveniles. They do by far the best with their 4+ year-olds, something that is being backed up again this season with 7 of their 8 winners coming in that age bracket.
Upcoming Entries and track stats: Chester (2 from 16, 13%), Hamilton (5 from 53, 9%), Nottingham (1 from 20, 5%), Ripon (12 from 68, 18%), Warwick (1 from 5, 20%), Thirsk (11 from 72, 15%)


J R JENKINS (4 winners from his last 17 runners, 24% strike-rate):
With 13 of their last 17 runners finishing fourth or better, including 4 winners, then this yard are worth keeping on your side at the moment. That puts them on 13 winners already for the season and need just 8 more to equal what they managed for the whole of 2011. 30 in a season is their best yet (2010), but that record looks in danger, while they are another yard that have seemingly recognised the talents of one of the best young jockeys around – Frederik Tylicki – and that will only aid their cause as the season progresses. They do best with their older horses, but it is worth pointing out they are 4 from just 11 with their 3 year-olds so far this term, and did have a 14/1 second at Southwell on Wednesday too. The yard did also have 6 NH winners last season, and at this stage have a few engaged to run down at Plumpton on Sunday.
Upcoming Entries and track stats: Southwell (AW) (28 from 176, 16%), Goodwood (3 from 27, 11%), Yarmouth (5 from 113, 4%), Lingfield (1 from 20, 5%), Nottingham (3 from 42, 7%), Ripon (0 from 1), Warwick (0 from 5), Plumpton (1 from 9, 11%)


SIR MICHAEL STOUTE (5 winners from his last 21 runners, 24% strike-rate):
The 10-times Champion Trainer didn’t exactly have the best of times last season with just 53 winners – his worst tally for over 20 years. However, things have started better this term with 6 winners from just 45 runners, while 20 have finished fourth or better. Yes, I still think the yard lacks the batch of superstars that they can normally go to war with, but as we all know in racing it only takes 1 or 2 seasons of below-par juveniles and it can impact your results for the next few campaigns. I fully expect them to better that tally of 53 last term, but I think they will be hard-press to top the 100 mark – something they’ve not done now since 2007. They are yet to have a 2 year-old runner this season, so a lot will depend on what happens in that age group, with all 6 of their successes this season coming with their 3 year-olds. You might have to be patient, but keep a eye for any runners at Carlisle (2 from 3), Folkestone (6 from 16) or Redcar (3 from 5) – they don’t have many runners at the tracks, but do have excellent records there, while with Chester this week and a 24% strike-rate on the Roodee their runners up there are worth a second glance too. Upcoming Entries and track stats: Goodwood (21 from 102, 21%), Chester (11 from 46, 24%), Yarmouth (18 from 77, 23%), Ascot (17 from 125, 14%), Nottingham (10 from 54, 19%), Lingfield (5 from 24, 21%)

 

This Week’s Cold Trainers...........

David Nicholls (23 days and 38 runners without a winner)

Amanda Perrett (104 days and 21 runners without a winner)

Clive Cox (18 days and 21 runners without a winner)

 

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