Trainer Stats – 27th Oct

With the flat season winding down and the jumping action hotting up there are plenty of NH handlers starting to appear on Andy Newton’s weekly hot trainers feature, while on the cold list there’s a Grand National-winning yard that have not had success for over 200 days!

 

 

 This Week's Hot Trainers.........

 

JENNIE CANDLISH (4 winners from her last 9 runners, 44% strike-rate): With all 9 of their recent runners finishing fourth or better, including those 4 wins, then the Candlish team, who operate over both codes, are certainly in a rich vein of form at the moment. Okay, so they don’t have many runners and you really need to keep an eye out for their entries, but with those current stats the extra work could pay off. With 6 NH wins already they need just 9 more to equal last season’s tally, while on the flat they need just two more wins to make this their best ever campaign.  Looking ahead their Lucky Lukey, who won at Uttoxeter earlier this month, heads to Stratford on Thursday as the yard look to grab their first-ever with at the track.
Upcoming Entries & 5 Year Track Stats:  Stratford (0 from 11), Uttoxeter (7 from 65, 11%), Wetherby (1 from 8, 13%) & Carlisle (0 from 11)

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CHARLIE LONGSDON (8 winners from his last 24 runners, 33% strike-rate): Yes, the Longsdon team are still holding their own on the ‘hot trainers’ list and with another midweek winner at Chepstow then it’s hard to see any let-up in the near future. That victory was already their 31st of the season and are now just 13 away from overtaking last terms haul of 44 winners! They are also operating at a 33% winning strike-rate with their horses, while, more impressively, of their 94 runners so far a massive 61% have finished fourth or better. They looked to have unearthed a real gem in jockey Kielan Woods and with his 7lb claim then expect them to use him more and more to gain a further edge with their runners.  
Upcoming Entries & 5 Year Track Stats:  Fontwell (4 from 43, 9%), Kempton AW (0-2), Uttoxeter (7 from 32, 22%), Wetherby (3 from 9, 33%), Ascot (1 from 10, 10%), Carlisle (2 from 9, 22%), Huntingdon (11 from 61, 18%).

PAUL NICHOLLS (7 winners from his last 34 runners, 21% strike-rate): Rather like the Hannon team on the flat the Nicholls yard have so many runners each day that their strike-rate can change dramatically by the hour. That said, and despite last Saturday’s disappointment with Master Minded, the stable’s horses seem to be raring to go -backed up with 22 of their last 34 runners finishing third or better. With Ruby openly saying that he won’t be coming over to the UK during midweek unless the new whip rules are reviewed and/or the prize money warrants a visit then the yard’s new number two, Daryl Jacobs, must be licking his lips. Nick Williams’ former jockey has been on all of their last six runners and can be expected to get the bulk of the midweek rides until further notice. At this stage What A Friend looks a possible for Ascot this Saturday, while Poquelin could head to Wetherby for the Charlie Hall. Finally, their midweek Chepstow winner Prospect Wells looked very impressive when winning on his hurdling debut and being a decent flat recruit could be worth following – it looks like he’ll be off to Cheltenham next for a novice event at the Open Meeting next month.
Upcoming Entries & 5 Year Track Stats:  Fontwell (29 from 88, 33%), Stratford (18 from 63, 29%), Uttoxeter (6 from 25, 24%), Wetherby (1 from 7, 14%), Ascot (17 from 90, 19%) & Carlisle (0 from1).

GARY MOORE (8 winners from his last 30 runners, 27% strike-rate): They had their first winner for a week on Wednesday night at Kempton, but in general their horses seem to be in good enough form for them to warrant a mention. Obviously they operate over both codes, but with the flat winding down and the jumps action warming up then they will be focusing more over the sticks from here on in. On the level they are on 35 winners, still 8 short of last season’s 43, while with 8 successes over the jumps they will be targeting last terms final tally of 45 wins.  Son Jamie will be in the plate for most of their jumpers, but also keep an eye out for Joshua Moore too – he’s ridden two winners from his last 3 rides for the yard. Like I’ve mentioned before, it could pay to focus more with their hurdlers, rather than their chasers, as their wins over the smaller obstacles has been far greater in the past 5 seasons.
Upcoming Entries & 5 Year Track Stats:  Fontwell (55 from 271, 20%), Lingfield AW (78 from 578, 13%), Stratford (3 from 42, 7%), Newmarket (1 from 23, 4%), Wolverhampton AW (21 from 107, 20%), Ascot (7 from 61, 11%), Huntingdon (12 from 110, 11%), Plumpton (31 from 178, 17%) & Kempton (11 from 129, 9%)

MARTIN KEIGHLEY (4 winners from his last 17 runners, 24% strike-rate): Based near Cheltenham the Keighley team already need just two more winners to beat last season’s tally of 19, and 10 more to equal their best ever haul. At the moment their horses seem to either win or finished unplaced, so that might be worth noting if you like playing each-way as it might be more profitable to lose the place stake of your bet and just back their horses to win until this trend changes. Interestingly they also had three fallers on the spin on Saturday, and in fact 4 of their last 11 runners have hit the deck – hopefully this is just a bit of bad luck, or it could be a case of some extra schooling for the Keighley and Marston operation.  Looking ahead their Jacko’s Boy didn’t beat much at Plumpton last week, but it’s interesting that he’s entered at both Uttoxeter and Wetherby this Friday, while one of last week’s fallers, Havingotascoobydo, could make amends at Wetherby on Saturday.
Upcoming Entries & 5 Year Track Stats:  Uttoxeter (4 from 49, 8%) Wetherby (3 from 14, 21%), Stratford (3 from 21, 14%) & Ascot (1 from 2, 50%).

EVAN WILLIAMS (6 winners from his last 29 runners, 21% strike-rate): They are another yard that have plenty of runners most days and with only 1 winner this midweek so far then they are only just clinging onto their place in this feature. That said, the winner they did have returned at a decent 8/1 and with 38 victories so far this NH season then we can expect big things from them. Yes, they lack horses at the top end of the scale, but they’ve got plenty of decent ones that can mop up your average midweek race, while I’ve seen a few nice bumper horses already of theirs too. Paul Moloney gets most of their rides, but don’t be put off if you see Adam Wedge’s name next to one of their runners either – he picks up the odd ride, mainly on their second strings, but can pop up with winners at a decent price. It could be significant that their Tiger O’Toole, who fell at the first fence in a beginners’ Chase last time, is entered at Fontwell (Thurs), Uttoxeter (Fri), Wetherby (Sat), Ascot (Sat) & Huntingdon (Sun).
Upcoming Entries & 5 Year Track Stats:  Fontwell (17 from 116, 15%), Stratford (20 from 126, 16%), Uttoxeter (16 from 136, 12%), Wetherby (8 from 39, 21%), Ascot (5 from 29, 17%), Huntingdon (5 from 42, 12%) & Carlisle (0 from 2).

MAHMOOD AL ZAROONI (11 winners from his last 43 runners, 26% strike-rate): It’s certainly no secret which of the two Godolphin operations this season who have won that mini-battle with Al Zarrooni  78 winners compared to Bin Suroors 48. While with over £1million more in total prize money and a +£128 level stakes profit then the newer of the boys in blue has stolen the show. Both yards have an array of exciting juveniles and with that in mind next season looks set to be a big year, but it’s the Al Zarooni yard that’s ending this campaign with a bang. True, they are having plenty of runners at the moment, especially with their 2 year-olds, but they are always ready to go well first time out and Tuesday’s 5 length Yarmouth winner, Swedish Sailor, who beat Frankel’s brother into second, could be a real star of the future.  Finally, keep an eye out for any Godolphin runners on the all weather in the next few months – they like to target this midweek meetings and rarely leave empty handed.
Upcoming Entries & 5 Year Track Stats:  Lingfield AW (5 from 19, 26%), Kempton AW (8 from 58, 14%) & Newmarket (17 from 53, 32%).

ROGER VARIAN (4 winners from his last 21 runners, 19% strike-rate):  It’s been an emotional year for the Varian yard with his mentor Michael Jarvis passing away, but he’s been handed a great legacy and with 52 winners so far then it’s clear he’s more than capable of maintaining the yard’s high standards. Some will look at Jarvis’ haul of 86 winners last season and say that he’s underachieved, but Varian has had far less runners (so far 251 compared to Jarvis’ 349) and the fact he’s operated around the 20% strike-rate mark for most of the season and currently boasts a +£68 level stakes profit  is an excellent achievement. When drilling into his 48 winners this season it’s interesting that only 6 came with his older horses and a massive 34 with his 3 year-olds, while 23% (12) of his 52 juveniles he’s sent to post have won.
Upcoming Entries & 5 Year Track Stats:  Lingfield AW (3 from 6, 50%), Kempton AW (0 from 14) & Newmarket (2 from 13, 15%).

ROGER CHARLTON (4 winners from his last 20 runners, 20% strike-rate): Okay, at first glance the current Charlton stats are not exactly mesmerising, but three of those 4 recent wins have been with their last 12 runners, while three others have been placed. Add in that three of the four winners were priced 8/1, 25/1 and 6/1 (other 6/4) then their followers will be more than ahead at the moment. It’s also worth pointing out that jockey James Doyle has been on three of those recent wins – perhaps suggesting why they were allowed go off at such attractive prices. With 42 wins so far they need 6 more to better last season’s tally, so you can expect them to have that as a goal, and they are also +£24 this year if you’d placed £1 on all of their runners. Finally, they’ve only had 2 all weather winners so far this season, but with a 21% strike-rate at Wolverhampton then should they run anything at the Midlands track in the coming weeks that figure could change.  
Upcoming Entries & 5 Year Track Stats:  Nottingham (12 from 49, 24%) & Newmarket (9 from 57, 16%)


This Week’s Cold Trainers.........

VENETIA WILLIAMS (206 day and 48 runners without a winner): Some could forgive her for not having a winner in the last 6 months due to the large bulk of her stable being jumpers, however, she’s still sent almost 50 horses to post in that time and although I can’t see this drought continuing for much longer it’s still worth being aware of. What’s more of a worry for the Grand National-winning trainer is that only one of her last 10 runners managed to hit the frame (second), while of the 7 that finished their races they were beaten a combined total of approx 200 lengths! Last season they managed 38 winners, but that was their worst tally for 13 years, while they also only managed £264,000 in prize money – again, their worst for 13 years. They are yet to break their duck from 21 runners so far this season and when looking back at last terms figures, and the fact they don’t really have many stable stars, then are the Williams stable going to struggle this season?

Click on a trainer's name to see their full stats and entries

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4 replies
  1. Avatar
    thomas says:

    thanks for all the info its invaluable and has pointed me in the right direction on numerous occasions thanks again t.b

    • Avatar
      Andy Newton says:

      Glad you like it Tom, makes all the hard work worth it and good to know it’s pointed you in the direction of a winner or two!!

    • Avatar
      Rod says:

      Sadly, even tipsters are genteel with the truth as regards trainers like
      Venetia Williams….why her….why trainers in the West Country in particular,
      and Lambourn. Old buildings that like Charlie Swan’s yard lack the benefits
      of the Paul Nicholls pristine environment and stainless steel veterinerary care.
      The VIRUS mate….rotten with it year on year….you could write off the Crowley yard
      for months in Ireland every autumn. Note how Dermot Weld has’nt had the bug for years,
      but Francis Flood has, and still only manages to keep the odd horse in good health.
      When I woke up to the idea that the virus flies in from nearby trees after the summer and inhabits the age old timbers to be found in some of these incessantly damp
      locations, I made their VIRUS record the first criteria in the selection of a home for my
      horses. As I write I recall Richard Price plagued with it for years, such that he had to move
      altogether from Leominster to his present location.

      COLD trainers are not COLD for no reason….and the reason should get more focus
      from your correspondents.

      Rod

      • Avatar
        Matt Bisogno says:

        It’s an interesting point Rod, but a little simplistic, I fear. Venetia trains her horses to be hot in the Spring, and brings them on slowly in the Autumn. It has nothing to do with virus, and everything to do with it being five months until Cheltenham, where she’ll again be looking to nab at least a handicap chase for the yard.

        Matt

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