Trainer Trends – 15th Sept

Michael Bell

Michael Bell - 42 Runners Without Success

Plenty to shout about from last week’s batch of hot handlers, but none more so than Richard Hannon. Yes, he’s had an army of runners over the last fortnight, but since we mentioned him last week he’s bowled in with 13 more winners – Add in that our main cold trainer, Michael Bell, is now 28 days and 42 runners without success then all is good in ‘trainer trends’ land.


This Week’s Trainers to Note.......


ROBERT EDDERY (3 winners from his last 5 runners, 60% strike-rate) – Currently putting his more famous brother Pat to shame with 3 winners from just his last 5 runners. Before that purple patch the Newmarket-based trainer actually only had one previous winner to his name, but with this being his first year out on his own he’s not doing badly with 10 placed from his 41 runners. For those that don’t know he was a former Champion Apprentice in Ireland, has worked with Sir Henry Cecil and Australia’s Bart Cumming, while he spent 12 years training well-known owner Peter Harris’ 2 year-olds - so has more than a solid base to give the training game a good go. Obviously with his limited string entries are a bit thin on the ground, but they do have one engaged at Newbury on Friday – Buddy Holly, who was actually Robert’s first ever winner back in June.

GEORGE BAKER (5 winners from his last 14 runners, 36% strike-rate) – Everywhere you look these day’s there seems to be a ’George Baker’ of some sorts – I think all that’s left is for a course to be called GB – then we’ll have the clean sweep – The horse George Baker, ridden by, trained by and now running at George Baker Park..........! Anyway, I digress as it’s actually the trainer George Baker that’s hitting the headlines at present with 5 winners from his last 12 runners and some at fancy prices too – 14/1 and a monster 33/1 at Brighton on Monday. Jockey Tony Culhane has been on two of those recent winners and does tend to ride the most for the yard, while the team need just 6 more winners to beat last season’s tally of 40 winners. This term they are also currently operating on a very impressive 20% strike-rate (35 winners from 170 runners), but they do tend to do better with their older horses – they’ve only had three juvenile winners from the 34 they’ve sent to post. Looking ahead they have plenty of engagements, so here are their stats – Yarmouth (9 from 34, 26%), Kempton (5 from 77, 6%), Lingfield (3 from 17, 18%), Newbury (1 from 9, 11%), Newmarket (0 from 4) and Wolverhampton (29 from 164, 18%).

CHRIS WALL (6 winners from his last 17 runners, 35% strike-rate) – Has a very good record with his runners at Yarmouth and that was further backed-up on Tuesday when his Royal Rock won a decent 6f contest there, while he also added a 3/1 winner up at Haydock on the same afternoon too. Before Tuesday the yard were already showing signs that a decent spell was ahead with 14/1, 7/1, 10/1 and 15/8 winners since the backend of last month and with Yarmouth’s three-day festival running through to Thursday then keep an eye out for more entries there. Five year track stats: - Yarmouth (28 from 142, 20% & +£43), Newbury ( 5 from 36, 14%), Lingfield (AW) (6 from 66, 9%), Newmarket (3 from 53, 6%), Wolverhampton (15 from 73, 21%).

SIR MARK PRESCOTT Bt (6 winners from his last 17 runners, 35% strike-rate) – Has been a regular feature on the hot trainers list this season and with three more winners last week from just 10 runners then the Heath House handler is certainly maintaining his strike-rate. Like I mentioned last week they seem to be being a bit more selective with their runners of late, while with their good form (especially at this time of the year) no secret from the bookmakers then you’re not going to get rich backing all their runners. Stevie Donohoe has been onboard two of their last three winners, but obviously the stable’s number one Seb Sanders ride the majority of their runners. Seven of their last 10 to be sent off as favourite have won, while 15 of their last 23 runners have finished third or better. Like most week’s they’ve got plenty of entries, often 2 or 3 for the same horse – here are their 5 year course stats – Ayr (6 from 15, 40%), Yarmouth (15 from 58, 26%), Kempton (27 from 157, 17%), Newbury (0 from 12), Lingfield AW (31 from 154, 20%), Wolverhampton (36 from 169, 21%), Catterick (11 from 38, 29%) and Hamilton (12 from 29, 41%).

JONATHAN PORTMAN (6 winners from his last 20 runners, 30% strike-rate) – I witnessed their Shesha Bear (5/1) romp to her third win this summer at Epsom last Thursday and with another success at Goodwood on Sunday then the yard are already having a great September. With 21 winners so far this season they’ve already blown away last season’s tally of 10 – so no matter what happens now this will be their best ever campaign. Of their 21 winners this season 20 came with their 3 or 4+ year-olds, while it’s worth pointing out they’ve only had one 2 year-old success from 26 runners. The use a variety of pilots, but Stephen Craine is 2 winners from his last 3 rides for the yard. Here’s where their runners might be seen over the next few days – Pontefract (0 from 4), Newbury (5 from 78, 6%), Lingfield (turf) (0 from 18), Wolverhampton (3 from 31, 10%), Ayr (no runners) and Catterick (0 from 2).

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ROGER VARIAN (6 winners from his last 21 runners, 29% strike-rate): Since taking over from Michael Jarvis at the beginning of the season this new name on the racing pages has really made the transition a smooth one. He started off really well and despite a slight lean spell a month or so ago, it looks as if they’ve picked up again and could be in for a big end to the season. The only downside is that a lot of his winners seem to be very short prices with his last six reading – 5/4, 7/2, 2/5, 7/4, 8/15 and 2/5 – so don’t expect to pay off the mortgage just yet by backing his runners. Michael Jarvis managed 86 winners in 2010, so with 42 so far this term he’s not going to cap his first season that way, but on a plus side he’s had nowhere near as many runners and is still operating on a 20% win strike-rate from all his runners this season. I think we can expect to see a few more 2 year-old winners in the closing few months of the turf season, and with a 32% record (8 from 25) with his juveniles then it’s clear they do well with their youngsters. 29 of their 40 winners have been with 3 year-olds, while in contrast they’ve only had 5 winners (from 33 runners) aged 4 or older. Yarmouth (2 from 6, 33%), Kempton (0 from 9), Lingfield (turf) (2 from 3, 67%), Lingfield (AW) (3 from 4, 75%), Newbury (3 from 13, 23%), Wolverhampton (no runners) and Ayr (no runners).

JOHN GOSDEN (10 winners from his last 44 runners, 23% strike-rate) – The yard are probably still celebrating his double Leger win last weekend after taking both the English and Irish versions in the space of 40 minutes. But they added another winner down at Goodwood on Saturday to make it three winners from their 7 runners that day. They are currently on 79 winners for the season, but need a big end to the season if they want to surpass last year’s tally of 105. That said, they might be playing catch-up with the number of winners, but not the prize money won – and that’s really what counts! They have already amassed £450,000 more in total prize money than 2010 and only need (well, I say only) another £430,000 to make this their most profitable season ever, beating their 2008 total of £2,596,896. If they are going to achieve this then they will surely need some luck on Champions Day at Ascot next month or Nathaniel winning the Arc – which is not totally out of the question! Of their 79 winners this season a staggering 50 have been with their 3 year-olds, so keep that in mind, while here are their track stats for the coming days. Yarmouth (23 from 96, 24%), Newbury (23 from 140, 16%), Lingfield (AW) (23 from 127, 18%), Wolverhampton (20 from 89, 22%), Newmarket (36 from 238, 15%).

RICHARD HANNON (26 winners from his last 120 runners, 22% strike-rate) – Because of the sheer number of runners the Hannon team have, especially at this time of the season, then it’s really hard for them to figure on the hot trainers list – so the very fact their current record is around the 20% mark is a feat in itself. Yes, a lot of theirs can go off a bit shorter than perhaps they should, especially if a certain Mr Hughes is riding, but keep an eye if Pat Dobbs is booked – he’s ridden 5 winners from his last 14 mounts for the yard and at fair prices too – 15/8, 11/4, 15/2, 6/1 and 9/1. Due to a monster 66/1 winner a few Saturday’s ago they are currently operating at a huge +£93 level stakes profit for all their runners over the last fortnight, but they are still 50 winners shy of last season’s final win tally of 210. Over half of their 160 winners have come with their juveniles (84), while it’s worth noting that from 133 runners from their 4+year-olds they’ve only bagged 17 successes. Entries and 5 year course stats – Kempton (98 from 737, 13%), Newbury (63 from 571, 11%), Lingfield (turf) (76 from 496, 15%), Ayr (0 from 4), Newmarket (35 from 305, 11%) and Catterick (0 from 2).

WILLIAM MUIR (5 winners from his last 23 runners, 22% strike-rate): Jockey Martin Dwyer, who rides most of theirs, teamed up with the Muir team to land a 505/1 hat-trick at Kempton on Monday and with the yard firing in another 10/1 winner last Friday then I guess the signs were there for all to see. Let’s hope we’ve not missed the boat, but they are well on their way to bettering last season’s tally of 23 winners (currently on 17), however, they did bag 41 (2008) and 46 (2009) winners the two campaigns before so will need a big push over the next 6-7 weeks or so to beat those. They tend to have a lot of runners at the all weather tracks, especially Kempton and Wolverhampton – Here’s where you can see their runners in the coming days – Newbury (1 from 56, 2%), Ayr (1 from 4, 25%), Wolverhampton (23 from 183, 13% & +£29) and Newmarket (2 from 44, 5%).

PAUL MIDGLEY (4 winners from his last 21 runners, 19% strike-rate): The Midgley team did us proud last week when Internationaldebut (7/1) romped away with what looked a competitive sprint at Doncaster last Thursday and although that has been their last winner they did have a 10/1 runner-up at Chester on Saturday and have only had 10 runners since. Russ Kennemore rides the majority of theirs, but it could be significant that Frederik Tylicki has ridden two of their last 3 winners and is actually 2-from-3 for the yard in recent weeks. With 43 winners already this season then the bookies will not be taking bets on them beating their 2009 best ever tally of 45 winners and I suspect that 2012 could be a very big year for the rapidly improving stable. They’ve only had one 2 year-old winner from 25 runs this season, while most of their winners (33) have come with their 4+year-olds. Here’s where you can expect to see their runners over the next few days and despite their good form be slightly wary as they don’t have the best records at these tracks – Ayr (2 from 26, 8%), Wolverhampton (3 from 94, 3%) and Catterick (11 from 135, 8%).

This Week’s Cold Trainers ........

MICHAEL BELL (27 days and 44 runners without a winner) –
We highlighted the Bell team last week as being on the cold list and after another 7 days without a winner and being such a high profile yard then I thought it best to continue to bring their lack of form to your attention. I thought their Set To Music might break their lean spell in the Park Hill last week, but she could only manage second, while Gramercy at 5/4 was well beaten at Yarmouth on Tuesday. Yes, they’ve had 5 seconds from their last 24 runners, but they’ve also had 17 unplaced, those included five on Wednesday, and until they show some signs of a return to form then think carefully before parting with your hard-earned on their runners.

JIM BOYLE (29 days and 24 runners without a winner) – The Epsom –based trainer is now almost a month without a winner and I remember him being on the cold list a few months ago too. He’s another that’s had a few placed (6 from 15), but with only 21 winners this season then they could be heading for their worst season for 5 years unless they turn things around. It’s not just their winners that are down this term, but also their win prize money with just £39k compared to £76k last year and £233k the year before. I really hope they find a few winners as living fairly near Epsom I like to keep an eye on the Surrey-based handlers – so fingers crossed they might find something at Lingfield or Newbury on Friday.

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