With the jumping fixtures extremely thin on the ground over the next few weeks Andy Newton concentrates on the flat handlers that are hot as we enter the final few months of the turf season. Plus he's got two trainers whose runners are not quite running as well as normal....
This Weekâ€™s Trainers to Note.......
JEREMY NOSEDA (7 winners from his last 16 runners, 44% strike-rate): Currently topping the hot trainers list with an eye-catching 7 winners in the last two weeks from just 16 sent to post. Make a special note if one of his goes off favourite as six of his last 7 to go off as the market leader have all bowled in! William Buick, Jamie Spencer and Jimmy Fortune are used the most, but they have also started to use the services of the promising John Fahy â€“ his last three rides for the yard read â€“ 3-1-3. So far this season theyâ€™ve bagged 50 wins and need just 6 to surpass last seasonâ€™s tally, while they need more than 61 for this to be their best-ever campaign. Looking at the breakdown of their 50 winners over half (28) have come with their 3 year-olds, while in addition to their 50 turf winners theyâ€™ve also had 18 on the AW from just 54 runners in 2011. In terms of entries here are their track stats for the coming days â€“ Doncaster (17 from 76, 22%), Wolverhampton (20 from 68, 29%), Bath (1 from 4, 25%), Goodwood (18 from 78, 23%) and the Curragh (2 from 7, 29%).
SIR MARK PRESCOTT (8 winners from his last 21 runners, 38% strike-rate): The Heath House handler has been a regular on the hot trainers list over the summer and with another two winners (4/5 and 9/1) on Saturday and one more on Wednesday then there seems to be no let up as we head into the final few months of the flat turf season. Whatâ€™s been evident over the last few weeks is that they are being extremely selective with their runners and although a lot are well-backed itâ€™s worth noting that when they do go off clear favourite they tend to go in (5 of the last 7 to start favourite have won). Obviously stable jockey Seb Sanders gets the leg-up on most of theirs, but donâ€™t be put off if Stevie Donohoe is used as he steered home a recent 9/1 success at Haydock. They have Kinetica heading to Longchamp on Thursday for a Group 3, while they also have interests at Wolverhampton (Thurs/Fri), Doncaster (Fri) and Chester (Fri), plus too many to mention over the weekend. In terms of strike-rates they have a 4 from 13 (31%) record at Chester, while they currently have a +Â£47 level stakes profit with their runners on the Wolverhampton all weather track. Finally, like I say most weeks with this yard â€“ keep an eye on multiple entries for the same horse.
RICHARD HANNON (7 winners from his last 22 runners, 32%Â strike-rate): Okay, with this powerful yard their strike-rate changes by the minute with the amount of runners they have most days, but the reason I wanted them in this weekâ€™s list is to highlight that they currently have a +Â£54 level stakes profit in the last fortnight. Yes, this was mainly down to Ortac Rock winning at Ascot at a huge 66/1 â€“ but the point Iâ€™m making is that â€“ should any Hannon horses really go off that big? True, if the form is not in the bag, but the facilities his horses have at their disposal can improve a runner bundles from one run to the next. With 151 winners this terms they are still 59 off last yearâ€™s 210 total, so that looks an extremely tall order, but they are still around 300 runners short of last seasonâ€™s total runners of 1,341 and based on their current 15% overall strike-rate then if you do the maths there is a squeak they might pull it off. Two more winners on Wednesday at Doncater got their St Leger meeting off to the perfect start â€“ expect to see plenty more over the next 3 days! Obviously, way too many entries to list them all â€“ donâ€™t forget to click on the trainerâ€™s name to see them all.
PAUL MIDGLEY (10 winners from his last 35 runners, 29% strike-rate): This Northern-based trainer is really making a name for himself this season and has already smashed last seasonâ€™s tally of 27 with 42 winners. They need just 4 more to beat their 2009 total of 45 winners â€“ something that looks long-odds on theyâ€™ll achieve. Internationaldebut, who is entered again at Doncaster on Thursday, rewarded followers at 12/1 last Sunday, and Haajes did the business at 9/1 on the opening day of the Leger meeting on Wednesday. Most of their winners come with their 4+ year-olds (31), butÂ away from Town Moor this week they also have interests at Wolverhampton (3 from 92, 3%), Goodwood (no runners), Chester (0 from 14, 0%) and Kempton (AW) (2 from 33, 6%) â€“ but based on those course records they despite their good form a small word of caution is advised.
HUGHIE MORRISON (7 winners from his last 24 runners, 29% strike-rate): It seems the Berkshire based Morrison team are hitting another one of their purple patches with 7 winners since the end of August, while 13 of their last 24 runners have finished 4th or better. They are currently operating on a 15% overall strike-rate, but are still 16 runners short of equalling last seasonâ€™s tally of 51 winners. Despite their good form itâ€™s worth noting that as we head into the St Leger meeting at Doncaster theyâ€™ve only had 1 winner from 18 runners on Town Moor in the last 5 seasons. They do, however, have a great strike-rate at Chester in recent seasons (3 from 13, 23%) and they have Queen Of Cash heading there on Saturday, while last weekâ€™s Ascot runner-up Valencha has entries at Goodwood on Saturday and Sunday.
MARCUS TREGONING (3 winners from their last 12 runners, 25% strike-rate):Â Had a fairly quiet season with just 17 winners, but the yard will be hoping to end the campaign on a high and with three recent winners (7/2, 2/1 and 2/7) then the signs are good. Despite being classed in the â€˜bigger gunâ€™ category when it comes to yard the best tally for a season theyâ€™ve managed was 56 back in 2003, while the last five terms have read as follows â€“ 27,30,35,34 & 29. That said, they have always been a quality over quantity operation and despite the last few season being average they have broken the Â£1million barrier with total prize three times (2002, 2003 and 2006).Â With Hayley Turner on the sidelines then expect to see some new faces doing the riding, while in terms of the forthcoming meeting where they have expected runners this is their 5 year record at the tracks â€“ Bath (10 from 35, 29%), Sandown (6 from 52, 12%), Chester (0 from 4, 0%), Goodwood (9 from 100, 9%), Kempton (AW) (20 from 157, 13%).
PETER WINKWORTH (3 winners from his last 12 runners, 25% strike-rate): Heâ€™s due to retire at the end of the season, and they way things are going he looks to be aiming to bow out on a high. This underrated yard are certainties to surpass last yearâ€™s tally of 12 wins with 11 already, but might have a bit to do to end with more than their 2008 total of 26 victories. A lot of their runners tend to go under the radar and they are no strangers at tackling the big boys. Only a small yard, so entries are limited, but they do have interests at this stage at Kempton (AW) (12 from 119, 10%, +Â£11), Goodwood (7 from 49, 14%, +Â£29) and Brighton (4 from 24, 17%, +Â£21) â€“ Jockey Luke Morris seems to get the majority of their rides.
HENRY CANDY (4 winners from his last 17 runners, 24% strike-rate): Two or three weeks ago the Henry Candy team were actually on the cold list, but 7/2, 15/8, 3/1 and 7/1 recent winners have transported them from the Antarctic to the Caribbean. Jockeyâ€™s Dane Oâ€™Neill and young Amy Scott are used the most with all bar one of those recent wins coming under one or the other (Fergus Sweeney rode the other). Expect to see most of their runners in action at the more Southern tracks, while with 21 victories (15 were with their 3 year-olds) this season they need just 4 to equal last yearâ€™s total and 12 to beat their 2008 best campaign of 32 winners. Here are their 5 year stats for the coming days â€“ Doncaster (4 from 30, 13%), Sandown (6 from 46, 13%), Goodwood (5 from 74, 8%), Chester (0 from 1, 0%).
EVE JOHNSON HOUGHTON (5 winners from her last 26 runners, 19% strike-rate): A 66/1 treble last Friday has shot this yards stats in the right direction over the last week and although theyâ€™ve not had a winner since I still think their runners are worth a second glance. Sheâ€™s already gained her most ever winners in a season (been operating since 2007) with 23, so anything now is a bonus. Her last two runners at Brighton have both been winners, so with the seaside track racing again on Monday keep a close eye on anything she sends there. Here is their record at the tracks were we should see their runners over the next few days â€“ Kempton (AW) (6 from 117, 5% -Â£82), Chepstow (4 from 33, 12%), Chester (1 from 9, 11%) and Sandown (6 from 52, 12%, +Â£35). Finally, despite not having a winner for them recently jockey Cathy Gannon is the pilot they use the most.
SIR MICHAEL STOUTE (3 winners from his last 25 runners, 12% strike-rate): Have I gone mad, I can hear you say? With a mere 12% current win record what is the Stoute team doing on here? Well, with the St Leger this Saturday and Stoutey having the well-fancied favourite Sea Moon I thought it might be useful to see how theyâ€™ve been fairing of late. The big-gun handler went on record earlier in the week as saying itâ€™s been an â€œappallingâ€ season as far as heâ€™s concerned, but with Workforce mopping up the Derby and Arc last season then I think itâ€™s fair to say that is a hard act to follow. That said, a win for Sea Moon in the Leger, and who knows Workforce could become the first horse since Alleged in 1977/78 to win back-to-back Arcs next month â€“ then what looked a poor season all of a sudden isnâ€™t! Yes, theyâ€™ve only had 3 winners since the 24th August, but a huge 60% of their runners have finished in the top 4 or better, so Iâ€™d say the yard head into the Leger in fair form, and although I think Sea Moonâ€™s price is a bit on the skinny side I certainly wouldnâ€™t discount him on grounds of the stable only having a handful of winners recently. Oh and if past seasons are anything to go by then you can expect September to be a good time for the team.
This Weekâ€™s Cold Trainers.........
MICHAEL BELL (19 days and 24 runners without a win): A couple of recent seconds suggests their stay on the cold list could be a short-lived one, but I still thought itâ€™s worth bringing to your attention that from their last 19 runners they managed just 3 placed finishers â€“ maybe they partied too hard after Margot Didâ€™s recent Nunthorpe win? Hayley Turner, one of their main jockeys with Jamie Spencer, is, of course, recovering from a broken ankle, but if this run of form continues she might be thinking that sheâ€™s not really missing that much. They need just 12 winners to equal last seasonâ€™s tally of 54, but unless they bag a winner or three in the next few weeks then their current 17% overall strike-rate will only go one way. The Queenâ€™s Set To Music at Doncaster in the Pretty Polly Stakes looks their best chance of getting back to winning ways.
WALTER SWINBURN (16 days and 22 runners without a win): Another that is set to bring an end to his 8 year training career at the end of October, but based on his current stats maybe we can see why heâ€™s calling it a day. Ever since Stotsfold sadly departed the yard they have not really developed another horse of his calibre and just mopping up the odd all weather race at Kempton is not going to pay the bills. Yes, they grabbed the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot back in June, so thereâ€™s no doubt the former Derby winning jockey is a capable handler, but it just boils down to our old friend â€˜deceasing prize moneyâ€™ and the lack of quality horses at the Swinburn operation. So far this season they are stuck on 25 winners, a massive 27 shy of last terms tally of 52.Â Â
Â *Don't forget to click on the trainer's name to see all their future entries...