The day has finally arrived, dear reader, when the fifth annual release of TrainerTrackStats hits the streets. Well, it hits your inbox really, but you know what I mean...
For those of you who are new to Geegeez, or don't know my online history, it all started for me just over four years ago when I launched a cool little betting manual for the jumps season, called... TrainerTrackStats (!)
As it turned out, that report did rather well, and was followed by an updated and fully revised edition for the following season. This too made a tidy profit, fully recorded, and was very popular.
And then things changed... In June 2008, I was offered a job with a chap called Tim Lowe, who is a big shot in the world of direct mail marketing (i.e. sales letters in the post).
I considered it a fine opportunity to learn more about a trade that, hitherto, I was exceedingly green with. But there was a problem... the long and short of it was that in order to accept the role with Tim, I'd have to relinquish my existing business interests which, at the time, were TTS and a blog called Nag Nag Nag.
I could have sold them of course. Both were popular, and both were profitable. But that's not really my way - I'd only sell if I could be sure that the small but loyal group of readers I'd acquired would be looked after. And, at that time, I didn't think that was the case...
So... I approached my very good mate, Gavin Priestley, who I'd known for donkeys' years, and who I'd met through racing and betting, and who was pretty savvy on matters equine, and asked him if he fancied taking over.
Long story a little bit shorter, he accepted and took over my old websites. He's done a brilliant job with both Nag3, and TrainerTrackStats. In fact, regarding the latter, Gavin has continued the profitable curve with two years of 'gravy' for his subscribers to match my two.
And now he's going for a fifth season of profit, and a third for him, starting on Monday. I obviously adore the product, as the original creator, and as it was TTS that started this whole online rideÂ for me way back in 2006. (Way back... yeah, like the dark ages! 2006!)
If you don't know what TTS is, let me explain...
It's essentially a stats-based analysis of trainer patterns, which seeks to find the real heart of a trainer's profits by 'slicing and dicing' the data by such variables as age, obstacle type, distance, time of year... in other words, all the things that affect the form of a trainer's horses during the course of a season.
TTS looks at the last five seasons for trainers, and only when they've had a sufficient number of runners. By also only focusing on horses priced at 14/1 or less, the odds are never skewed by one or two massive priced winners.
And, as with everything in life, the proof of the pudding is in the eating... so what are the numbers since that very first launch?
Well, you can see for yourself from the blue numbers below. These are the full unedited results for each season, as previous / current users will testify:
As you'll note, TrainerTrackStats has... SHOCK... losing runs. Four years and over 3,300 selections will do that. But each year, at the end of the season, when the chips were counted, there were more than at the start.
And, again as existing subscribers will testify, what fun we have along the way. There have been some ridiculous pick-ups from people who use the info in their own way. None more so than Chris H, who now famously caned Ladbrokes for Â£48,886... for a Â£22 bet!
Chris placed a yankee on four TTS runners (just a pound each-way, nothing fancy), and he scooped nearly FIFTY GRAND!
Now then, very clearly, I'm not suggesting you're going to do anything like that. But when the winners come on the same day, as they quite often do, it's incredible.
I actually remember my favourite TTS day... it was only about three weeks into that first season and I'd probably sold about twenty copies by then. Such a shame, because the results were:
21/09/2006 Â Â Â Â Font Â Â Â Irish WhispersÂ 1st Â Â Â Â 12/1
21/09/2006 Â Â Â Font Â Â Â Sonoma Â Â Â Â Â Â 1st Â Â Â 10/1
21/09/2006 Â Â Â Font Â Â Â Eljay's Boy Â Â Â 1st Â Â Â 4/1
21/09/2006 Â Â Â Font Â Â Â Saby Â Â Â Â Â Â 3rd Â Â Â 12/1
21/09/2006 Â Â Â PerthÂ Â Â Glingerbank Â Â Â 1st Â Â Â 4/6
21/09/2006 Â Â Â PerthÂ Â Â Knowhere Â Â Â 1st Â Â Â 2/1
21/09/2006 Â Â Â PerthÂ Â Â Billyandi Â Â Â 1st Â Â Â 11/8
21/09/2006 Â Â Â PerthÂ Â Â Scribano Eile Â Â Â 1st Â Â Â 5/4
21/09/2006 Â Â Â PerthÂ Â Â Thai Vango Â Â Â 1st Â Â Â 11/8
EIGHT out of NINE WON!!! And the one that was third, was in the same race as the 4/1 winner!!!
As long as I live, I will never forget that day. If it happened now, it'd probably make national news due to the number of followers TTS has acquired in the meantime. But back then, it was just me and a handful of (flabbergasted) subscribers.
But the one thing TTS does do, season in, season out, is provide those who love their jumps racing with loads of horses running for trainers who excel in that department... and loads of winners.
The average win strike rate is a little over 22.5%, so just shy of one in four runners win. And the average place strike rate (actually, more correctly, runners placed in the first three - there might not always be enough horses to pay on third place) is over 52%!
These are not dodgy back-fitted numbers. These are the TTS stats.
I hope you can see now why I'm so proud of this little product that changed a couple of people's lives, and made hundreds of people a bit happier through another cold dark winter. 🙂
Anyway, I'm getting all misty-eyed.
I'm also very proud of Gavin for the way he's maintained the momentum and, whilst the expectation grows with every season, this is one product that has done 'what it said on the tin' for four years and looks well placed to make that five.
The nature of the marketing - which, I have to concede, I have been involved in - means that TTS is likely to sell out before the weekend is over and, quite possibly, some time before that (it's selling like hot cakes this morning).
So, please, if you do want to be in on this, the time is now. (gentle and final reminder)
TrainerTrackStats is available for a short time from this link
Just time to add that I've pulled together all of my Breeders Cup info, ahead of my flight tomorrow, and I'll be writing my first report on that for you today and posting it tomorrow. So stay tuned for that, if you've interest in the US horse-y party!
p.s. TTS. It's really good. And you can get it here. 😉