TV Trends – Sat 15th October

Crystal Capella

Can Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Capella win the Champions Fillies & Mares’ Stakes for a third time this Saturday? – Andy Newton gives you all the big race trends & stats from Saturday’s LIVE TV races.

 

Ascot (BBC, RUK & ATR)

1.50 - Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) BBC2 Good 2m

6 of the last 10 went to the favourite, including 4 of the last 5
8 of the last 10 returned 9/2 or SHORTER in the betting
4 of the last 10 ran at Longchamp last time out
6 of the last 10 winners contested a Group race in their previous outing
6 of the last 10 were placed in their previous race
4 won their previous race
No real age trend with 3,4,6,7,8,9 & 10 year-olds all winning in the last 10 years
John Dunlop won this in 2004 & 2009 – TIMES UP
Saeed Bin Suroor took the prize in 2008 – DARLEY SUN
John Gosden won the race in 2001 – NEHAAM
Mark Johnston is only 13 from 139 (9%) with his 3 year-olds at Ascot – COLOUR VISION & ETERNAL HEART
Aidan O’Brien is 12 from 36 (33%) with his older horses here – FAME AND GLORY
John Gosden has a 21% (8 from 39, +£39) strike-rate with his older horses here - NEHAAM
John Dunlop is just 1 from 28 with his 4 year-olds + at the track – TIMES UP

*Note: Previously run at Newmarket

 
2.25 - Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) BBC1 Good 6f

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years
7 of the last 10 winners returned 9/1 or LESS in the betting
NO winner in the last 10 years aged older than 5 years-old
4 of the last 5 went to a 3 year-old
2 of the last 3 winners returned a double-figure price
The last 7 winners all failed to win their previous race
3 of the last 5 ran in the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup last time out
6 of the last 10 ran in either a Listed or Group 3 race last time out
Johnny Murtagh has won this race in 2001 & 2005 – DEACON BLUES
Richard Hills rode the winner in 2007 & 2009 – DAFEEF
William Haggas won this race in 2008 – DAFEEF
Richard Hannon is only 5 from 109 with his 3 year-olds here – LIBRANNO
James Fanshawe is 9 from 47 (19%) with his 4 year-olds + at the course – SOCIETY ROCK & DEACON BLUES
Jeremy Gask is 4 from 19 (21%) with his older horses at Ascot – MEDICEAN MAN
William Haggas has a +£50 level stakes profit with his older horses here - DAFEEF
Johnny Murtagh has a 25% record (15 from 59) when riding older horses at Ascot – DEACON BLUES
Neil Callan is only 2 from 66 when riding 4 year-old+ at the course – ROYAL ROCK

*Note – 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

 
3.00 - Qipco British Champions Fillies´ And Mares´ Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) BBC1 Good 1m4f

Only 3 previous runnings
Sir Michael Stoute’s CRYSTAL CAPELLA has won this in 2008 & 2010
Ryan Moore has rode the winner in 2008 & 2010 - CRYSTAL CAPELLA
2 of the last 3 were aged 3 years-old – BANIMPIRE, BIBLE BELT & DANCING RAIN
ALL 3 priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
Jim Bolger is 2 from 8 with his 3 year-olds at the track – BANIMPIRE
John Gosden has a 21% (8 from 39, +£39) strike-rate with his older horses here – GERTRUDE BELL
Johnny Murtagh has a 17% record (7 from 42) when riding 3 year-olds at Ascot – DANCING RAIN
Kieren Fallon is only 1 from 43 when riding older horses at the course – BRUSHING

*Note – Previously run at Newmarket

3.35 - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Sponsored By Qipco (British Champions Mile) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) BBC1 Good 1m

3 of the last 10 went to the favourite
9 of the last 10 returned 7/1 or SHORTER in the betting
9 of the last 10 were placed last time out
4 of the last 6 won their previous race
50% of the last 10 winners ran at Goodwood last time out
9 of the last 10 ran in either a Group 1 or 2 in their previous race
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 10 years
3 year-olds have won 4 of the last 5 renewals – FRANKEL, IMMORTAL VERSE, EXCELEBRATION & DUBAWI GOLD
POET’S VOICE won the race 12 months ago
Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 2001, 2007 & 2010 – POET’S VOICE
Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 2007 & 2010 – POET’S VOICE
Sir Henry Cecil is 6 from 38 (16%) with his 3 year-olds here – FRANKEL
Richard Hannon is only 5 from 109 with his 3 year-olds at the track – DUBAWI GOLD
French jockey Gerald Mosse is 2 from 8 when riding 3 year-olds here – IMMORTAL VERSE

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4.10 - Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £737,230 BBC1 Good 1m2f

2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
4 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
8 of the last 10 winners were aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9 of the last 10 winners were placed last time out
60% of the last 10 won their last race
3 of the last 4 ran at Leopardstown last time out
8 ran in a Group race last time out
Sir Henry Cecil’s Twice Over has won this for the past 2 years
2 of the last 10 went to a French-trained runner – CIRRUS DES AIGLES
The Hills stable won this in 2002 & 2004 – RANSOM NOTE
Aidan O’Brien is 12 from 36 (33%) with his older horses at Ascot – SO YOU THINK
William Haggas has a +£50 level stakes profit with his older horses here – GREEN DESTINY
Aidan O’Brien has never won this race – SO YOU THINK
William Buick has a +£46 level stake profit when riding 3 year-olds here - NATHANIEL

 
*Note – Previously run at Newmarket

 
Cheltenham (C4 & RUK)

2.05 - A P McCoy Autobiography Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+) CH4 Good To Firm 3m1f110y

4 of the last 10 went to the favourite
ALL 10 recent winners returned 9/1 or SHORTER in the betting
ALL 10 recent winners were aged 7 or YOUNGER
5 of the last 10 were aged 5 years-old
Paul Nicholls won this in 2006 & 2010 – ROUND TOM
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2006 & 2010 – ROUND TOM
Henry de Bromhead is 3 from 7 with his hurdlers here - CATCHERINSCRATCHER
Paddy Brennan has a huge +£78 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the course - TRABAJO

 
2.40 - ZEturf.com Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-150) CH4 Good To Firm 2m4f

3 winning favourites in the last 10 years (1 joint)
NO winner aged older than 9 years-old
8 of the last 10 carried 11-0 or MORE
A 6 year-old has won 4 of the last 6 runnings
Paul Webber’s EDGBRIAR won the race 12 months ago
Nigel Twiston-Davies won the race in 2007 – BILLIE MAGERN
Jonjo O’Neill won the prize in 2006 - GILBARRY
AP McCoy rode the winner in 2001, 2003 & 2006 -  GILBARRY
Paul Webber has a 33% (3 from 9) record with his chasers here – EDGBRIAR & MARLEY ROCA


3.15 -
Masterson Holdings Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo) CH4 Good To Firm 2m110y

Only 2 previous runnings
Gordon Elliott has a +£19 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the course – PLAN A
Tim Vaughan is 0 from 19 with his hurdlers here – FIRST FANDANGO
Ruby Walsh has a 28% record (£55 level stakes profit) when riding hurdlers here – TONIC MELLYSSE
Dougie Costello is 0 from 17 when riding hurdlers at Cheltenham - PALAWI

 
3.50 -
ZEturf.com Trophy Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-150) CH4 Good To Firm 3m110y

4 previous runnings
3 of the last 4 runnings went to an 8 year-old
ALL 4 carried 10-8 or MORE
3 of the last 4 carried 11-0 or MORE
Jonjo O’Neill took this race in 2009 – GALAXY ROCK
Philip Hobbs won this prize in 2008 – BALTHAZAR KING
Peter Bowen is only 1 from 28 with his chasers at Cheltenham – NORTH ISLAND

 
Catterick (C4 & RUK)

2.20 - toteplacepot Fillies´ Nursery (CLASS 4) (2yo 0-85) CH4 Soft 7f

3 previous runnings
2 of the 3 carried 9-2 or MORE
All three came from stall 7 or HIGHER
1 winning favourite (joint)
Tim Easterby won the race 12 months ago – ALABANDA, SEE CLEARLY and NEARLY A GIFT
In-form Mark Johnston has a 21% record (13 from 62) with his 2 year-olds here – ALWAYS ENDS WELL
David Evans has a 20% strike-rate with his juveniles at the track - AQUASULIS
Graham Gibbons has a 21% record (6 from 28) with his 2 year-olds here – NEARLY A GIFT


2.55 -
totescoop6 Catterick Dash (Handicap Stakes) (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95) CH4 Soft 5f

Only 1 winning favourite (joint) in the last 10 years
9 of the last 10 winners returned 11/2 or BIGGER in the betting
4 of the last 5 winners were aged 4 years-old
50% of the last 10 winners were aged 4 years-old
7 of the last 10 winners carried 8-10 or MORE
8 of the last 10 came from stall 8 or LOWER
6 of the last 10 ran at either York or Ascot last time out
8 of the last 10 finished unplaced in their last race
JUDGE ‘N JURY won this in 2008
Tim Easterby won the race in 2009 – COCKTAIL CHARLIE & FAVOURITE GIRL
Kevin Ryan won the prize in 2007 – COURAGEOUS & BOLD BIDDER
Jim Goldie trained the winner in 2006 – RASAMAN
Brian Ellison has a 20% strike-rate with his older horses here - PELMANISM
Dandy Nicholls has a +£33 level stakes profit with his 4 year-olds+ at the track - FATHOM FIVE
Adrian Nicholls has a 20% strike-rate when riding older horses at the course - FATHOM FIVE

 
Kelso (C4 & ATR)

3.25 - EDF-ER Fallago Rig Handicap Chase (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-140) CH4 Good To Soft 3m1f

2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
3 of the last 4 returned a double-figure price in the betting
ALL 10 recent winners aged 7 or OLDER
7 of the last 10 winners were aged 9 or OLDER
Lucinda Russell trained the winner in 2007 – BESCOT SPRINGS
Ferdy Murphy won the race in 2006 – HENNESSY
Graham Lee rode the winner in 2001, 2001 & 2006 – HENNESSY
James Ewart is 5 from 25 (20%) with his chasers at Kelso – CAPTAIN AMERICO

 

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2 replies
  1. James says:

    SHOCK FRANKEL DEFEAT AT ASCOT
    If you like your tactics eyes down

    Point 1. Anyone who thinks that Frankel is not the best horse in the 3.35 at Ascot knows nothing about racing.
    Point 2. Anyone who thinks Frankel is a certainity today knows nothing about racing.
    How can I be so contradictory?
    Enter messers Hannon and their tactics to get Frankel beat. Lets face they are desparate to do so.
    The only way they can do it is to get Frankel lit up so he goes for home too early – as in Royal Ascot. Expect Dubawi Gold at some stage in the first half mile to try and get close to Frankel and dare him into a race. Dick turpin will be sitting off the pace waiting. Bullet train is not a pacemaker he is there to try and keep other horses away fro Frankel. Mongan has a tough job as his mount could get lit up and subsequently do the same to Frankel.
    If you are betting Frankel to win with Ladbrokes 1/2. But I would have Dick Turpin ew because Soumillion (should be Hughiesy) will becoming late. Excelebration should also make the 1st 3 on all known form.
    There is a similar plot going on in the next race involving So You
    Think and the Godolphin pair. Good luck if you are punting.

    Jim

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Jim

      Interesting angle – like it! But… Frankel was so relaxed yesterday that the 4/11 did indeed look robust value (for those with very deep pockets). I was lucky enough to be there and it was a fine day all round, marred only by another embarrassing episode for the new whip rules…

      Matt

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