TV Trends – Sat 8th Oct

Newmarket

Don't Forget the Draw Change at Newmarket This Year......

The Betfred Cesarewitch takes centre stage this Saturday, but did you know 70% of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or older? This trend whittles the 36 runner field down to 18! Andy Newton wades through all eight LIVE C4 races this weekend.......


Newmarket (C4 & RUK) – 10 Year Trends


2.05 - BURJ KHALIFA CHALLENGE STAKES (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £45,368 CH4 Good To Firm 7f

2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
8 of the last 10 ran in either a Group One or Two last time out
9 of the last 10 DIDN’T win their previous race
4 double-figure priced winners
4 of the last 10 ran in a Group One last time out
4 winners aged 3 years-old
4 winners aged 5 years-old
3 winners aged 4 years-old
John Gosden won this in 2006 – MAQAASID
Clive Brittain is only 1 from 45 with his 3 year-olds here - ELSHABAKIYA
Sir Henry Cecil has a 27% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track - CHACHAMAIDEE
Neil Callan is only 2 from 49 when riding 3 year-olds at HQ - ELSHABAKIYA
Tom Queally boasts a +£35 level stakes profit when riding 4+year-olds here - CHACHAMAIDEE


2.35 - EMAAR MIDDLE PARK STAKES (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £92,721 CH4 Good To Firm 6f

ALL 10 recent winners won their last race – REPLY and CASPAR NETSCHER
4 winning favourites, including 3 of the last 5
ALL 10 priced 8/1 or SHORTER in the betting
7 of the last 10 ran in either a Group One or Two last time out - CASPAR NETSCHER
2 of the last 10 won the Mill Reef last time out - CASPAR NETSCHER
The Hills stable won this in 2007 – BALTY BOYS and WEST LEAKE DIMAN
Peter Chapple-Hyam took the prize in 2006 - SAMMINDER
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2001 and 2004 – REPLY and CRUSADE
Kevin Ryan landed the contest in 2005 – BAPAK CHINTA
Richard Hannon has the best level stakes profit (+£34) with his 2 year-olds at the track amongst these trainers - LILBOURNE LAD
Ed Dunlop is only 1 from 45 with his juveniles here - BURWAAZ
Richard Hughes has a +£18 level stakes profit (17% strike-rate) when riding 2 year-olds here – LILBOURNE LAD

Your first 30 days for just £1

 
3.10 - DUBAI DEWHURST STAKES (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £179,771 CH4 Good To Firm 7f

4 of the last 10 went to the favourite
8 of the last ran in either a Group One or Two last time
7 of the last 10 won their previous race
3 of the last 10 ran at Longchamp last time out
4 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
5 of the last 10 renewals went to an Irish-trained horse
The mighty FRANKEL took this 12 months ago
Irish handler Jim Bolger won this in 2006,2007 and 2008 – PARISH HALL
Aidan O’Brien won this race in 2001 and 2009 – POWER
Jockey Kevin Manning won this in 2006, 2007 and 2008 – PARISH HALL
Andrew Balding has a huge +£86 level stakes profit with his juveniles here - SPIRITUAL STAR
Jimmy Fortune has a 19% strike-rate and +£68 level stakes profit when riding 2 year-olds at the track – SPIRITUAL STAR

3.50 – BETFRED CESAREWITCH (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) Winner £99,600 CH4
Good To Firm 2m2f

9 of the last 10 winners were trained in the UK
80% of the last 10 came from stall 18 or higher (Note: with the stall changes this year, a low draw might be favoured now)
7 of the last 10 were won by a horse aged 5 or older
70% were drawn in stall 23 or higher (Note: with the stall changes this year, a low draw might be favoured now)
7 returned at a price between 10/1-16/1
7 of the last 10 carried 9-1 or less
50% were trained by National Hunt trainer
5 of the last 10 were placed in their last race
6 year-olds have won 3 of the last 10
3 of the last 10 ran at Ascot last time out
Nicky Henderson has won the race twice in the last 10 renewals
3 of the last 10 were ridden by a claimer (including last two renewals)
Only 2 winning favourites in the last 10 years
Roger Charlton has a 28% strike-rate (+£34) with his 4+year-olds here - KEYS
Nicky Henderson is 4 from 8 (+£66) with his older horses at the track – VEILED and SENTRY DUTY
Brian Ellison is 0 from 30 with his older horses here – ABERGAVENNY, PALOMAR
Tom Queally boasts a +£35 level stakes profit when riding 4+year-olds here – MY ARCH
Jim Crowley is only 1 from 42 when riding older horses at the course - ASHBRITTLE


York (C4 and RUK) – 10 Year Trends

2.20 - CORAL.CO.UK STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) Winner £6,469 CH4
Good To Firm 5f

9 recent renewals
No winner aged older than 7 years-old
2 of the last 3 went to a 3 year-old
4 year-olds have the best record, winning 4 of the last 9
4 of the last 9 went to the favourite (1 joint)
6 of the last 9 came from stall 13 or HIGHER
8 of the last 10 DIDN’T win last time out
7 of the last 9 returned 9/1 or SHORTER in the betting
Paul Midgley’s HAAJES won this 12 months ago
Richard Price won this in 2006 – TAURUS TWINS
Bryan Smart won this in 2003 – FLASH CITY
Milton Bradley won the prize in 2005 - SOLEMIN
Surprisingly sprint king has not sent out a winner in the last 9 years – STRIKE UP THE BAND, INDIAN TRAIL and CADEAUX PEARL
Dandy Nicholls is 3 from 12 (25%) with his 3 year-olds here - CADEAUX PEARL
Paul Midgley has a 24% (8 from 34, +£71) record with his older horses here - HAAJES
Kevin Ryan is only 3 from 86 with his older horses at the track – LE TOREADOR
Frederik Tylicki has a +£84 level stakes profit on older horses at York - HAAJES


2.50 - GREEN TICK FOR BETTER ODDS AT CORAL.CO.UK STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-100) Winner £12,938 CH4 Good To Firm 1m208y

No previous runnings
William Haggas has a 26% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at York – ELECTRA STAR
Mahmood Al Zarooni has a huge 57% (4 from 7) with this 3 year-olds at the course – SADEEK’S SONG
Mark Johnston is only 3 from 84 with this age group at the track - OCEANWAY
Frederik Tylicki is 3 from 12 (25%) when riding 3 year-olds here – SERGEANT ABLETT


3.25 - CORAL.CO.UK ROCKINGHAM STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £22,684 CH4

Good To Firm 6f

9 previous runnings
2 winning favourites
8 of the last 9 returned 15/2 or SHORTER in the betting
4 of the last 9 winners won their previous race
7 of the last 9 came 4th or better in their previous race
None of these trainers have won the race in the last 9 runnings
Saeed Bin Suroor has a 42% (5 from 12) record with his 2 year-olds here – DESERT GAZELLE
Paul Hanagan has the best strike-rate (18%) on offer amongst these jockeys on 2 year-olds at York – SWISS SPIRIT


4.05 - CORAL SPRINT TROPHY (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) Winner £46,688 CH4

Good 6f

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 9 years
ALL 9 recent winners came from stall 6 or HIGHER
ALL 9 recent winners ran in a handicap last time out
8 of the last 9 winners DIDN’T win their previous race
6 of the last 9 returned a double-figure price
8 of the last 9 aged 4 or OLDER
7 of the last 9 were aged either 4 or 5 years-old
8 of the last 9 carried 9-1 or LESS
KALDOUN KINGDOM won this in 2009
Richard Fahey won this in 2007 and 2009 – CASTLES IN THE AIR, KALDOUN KINGDOM and SIOUX RISING
Robin Bastiman won this in 2005 – SINGEUR
David Barron won this in 2006 – COLONEL MAK

Your first 30 days for just £1