TV Trends – Sat 27th Aug

3.20 Good - 1 winner aged 6+ since 1967!

If you love applying key trends to your race assessments then be sure to take in Andy Newton’s Saturday TV Stats  - This week he looks at the LIVE C4 races from Newmarket, Goodwood and Beverley.

 

Goodwood (C4 & RUK)

2.15 – WINDFLOWER MARCH STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £17,013 M4 1m6f

5 of the last 10 went to the favourite
Luca Cumani took the prize 12 months ago with DRUNKEN SAILOR and tries again with the same horse
No real age trends with 3,4,5,6,7 and 8 year-olds all winning in the last 10 years
Kieren Fallon took this race in 2002, 2003 and 2010 - DRUNKEN SAILOR
9 of the last 10 recent winners returned 4/1 or SHORTER in the betting
Luca Cumani has a 20% record with his older horses here - DRUNKEN SAILOR
Mark Tompkins is only 2 from 33 when running 4+ year-olds at the track - MYSTERY STAR
Kieren Fallon has a 20% strike-rate when riding 4+ year-olds here - DRUNKEN SAILOR
Paul Hanagan is just 2 from 41 when getting the leg-up on older horses at Goodwood – MYSTERY STAR

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2.50 - Whiteley Clinic Prestige Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £22,684 M4 7f

5 of the last 10 went to the favourite
Only 1 double-figure priced winner
7 of the last 10 returned 4/1 or SHORTER in the betting
John Gosden won this in 2005 and 2007 – QUESTING
Jeremy Noseda (REGAL REALM) and Mahmood Al Zarooni (RAKASA) are both 3 from 11 with their 2 year-olds here
Richard Hughes has a 33% record (+£32) when riding 2 year-olds at the track – MY QUEENIE

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3.20 - BETFAIR CELEBRATION MILE (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £56,710 CH4 1m

9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or younger – Bad news for BEACON LODGE (6), PREMIO LOCO (7) & RIGGINS (7)
30 of the last 43 renewals were won by a 3 year-old – DUBAWI GOLD
Only one horse aged 6 or older has won since 1967
Only 2 winning favourites in the last 10 years
9 of the last 10 winners returned less than 10/1 in the betting
7 of the last 10 were placed in their previous race
8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win their previous race
Frankie Dettori has done winning flying dismounts in 1996, 2006 and 2010 – POET’S VOICE
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won the race in 1996, 1999, 2006 and 2010 – POET’S VOICE
Richard Hannon has just one win in the race – 1993 – DUBAWI GOLD
Chris Wall has a 19% strike-rate with his 4+year-olds at Goodwood – PREMIO LOCO
Jockey George Baker has the best level stakes profit (+£15) when riding 4+year-olds here of the jockeys on show – PREMIO LOCO

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3.50 - BETFAIR SUMMER DOUBLE SECOND LEG STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) Winner £62,250 CH4 7f

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3 winning favourites in the last 10 years (2 joint)
9 of the last 10 winners returned 7/1 or SHORTER in the betting
6 of the last 10 carried 9-2 or MORE
No horse older than 7 years-old has won in the last 10 years – bad news for WEBBOW
8 of the last 10 were 4 or older – slight negatives for CASUAL GLIMPSE (3) & CHILWORTH LAD (3)
50% of the last 10 finished UNPLACED in their previous race
6 of the last 10 were drawn in stalls 1,2 or 3 - *note* - with the stall changes this trend will now favour a high draw
ALL of the last 10 winners came from a single-figure stall - *note* - with the stall changes this trend will now favour a high draw
William Knight won this in 2006 – PALACE MOON
Kieren Fallon won this in 2003 & 2010 – ETON RIFLES
Mick Channon is only 6 from 92 with his 3 year-olds here - CHILWORTH LAD
Richard Fahey is just 3 from 56 with his older horses at the track – BRAVE PROSPECTOR, BRAE HILL & CASTLE IN THE AIR
Mark Johnston has a level stakes profit of (+£27) with his 4+year-olds at Goodwood – BELOW ZERO
Kieren Fallon has a 20% strike-rate (8 from 41) when getting the leg-up on older horses here - ETON RIFLES

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Beverley (C4 & RUK)

3.05 - TOTESCOOP6 HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) Winner £12,938 M4 1m1f

2 winning favourites in the last 8 years
Mark Johnston won this in 2008 and 2009 – MALTHOUSE
3 of the last 8 returned a double-figure price
The last 3 winners carried top-weight of 9-7
6 of the last 8 won with 9-3 or MORE
Mark Johnston has a 22% record with his 3 year-old here - MALTHOUSE
William Haggas has a 36% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track – TROJAN NIGHTS
Jeremy Noseda is 3 from 6 with his 3 year-olds at Beverley – SUD PACIFIQUE
Silvestre De Sousa is 16 from 67 when riding 3 year-olds at the course - MALTHOUSE

 BET HERE

3.35 - TOTEPOOL BEVERLEY BULLET SPRINT STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £17,760 RUK 5f

7 previous runnings
NO winning favourite
The last 4 winners were aged 3 years-old – DINKUM DIAMOND and BATHWICK BEAR
NO winner older than 7 years-old
2 double-figure priced winners
5 of the last 7 winners returned between 7/2 and 7/1 in the betting
3 of the last 7 ran in a Group One last time out
6 of the last 7 finished UNPLACED in their previous race
ALL 7 were draw in a single figure stall *note* with the stall changes a high draw might now be favoured
Dandy Nicholls won the prize in 2009 – TAX FREE
Jockey Tom Eaves took the honours in 2004 and 2005 – TANGERINE TREES
Kevin Ryan has a 20% record with his older horses at the track – BREATHLESS KISS
Bryan Smart has a +£32 level stakes profit with his 4+year-olds here - TANGERINE TREES
Robert Winston has a 24% strike-rate (14 from 58) when riding 4+year-olds at Beverley – GOLDEN DESTINY

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Newmarket (C4 & RUK)

1.55 - NOVAE BLOODSTOCK INSURANCE NURSERY (CLASS 3) (2yo) Winner £7,763 M4 7f

Only 4 previous runnings
2 of the last 4 were won by Richard Hannon – AMAZING STORM
Richard Fahey won the race 12 months ago – BOUNTIFUL GIRL
Mick Channon took the prize in 2007 – ROYAL MAJESTIC
NO winning favourite
Mark Johnston is only 2 from 49 with his 2 year-olds here - CRAVAT
Michael Bell is only 2 from 49 with his 2 year-olds here – RUBY NIGHT
Mick Channon has a +£32 level stakes profit with his juveniles at the track – ROYAL MAJESTIC
Richard Hannon has the best % strike-rate (17%) of these trainers with his 2 year-olds here – AMAZING STORM

BET  HERE
2.30 - £100,000 TATTERSALLS MILLIONS MEDIAN AUCTION STAKES (CLASS 2) (2yo) Winner £54,100 M4 6f

Only 1 previous running
Richard Hannon won the race 12 months ago – JACOB CAT
Richard Hannon has a 17% strike-rate with his 2 year-olds here – JACOB CAT
Andrew Balding is only 1 from 21 with his 2 year-olds here – SWEET LIBERTA
Mick Channon has a +£32 level stakes profit with his 2 year-olds here - SAMITAR
Jockey Shane Kelly is only 1 from 38 with when riding 2 year-olds at the track - MEHDI
Chris Catlin has a +£36 level stakes profit when riding juveniles here - WAHYLAH

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3.30 - CHRIS BLACKWELL MEMORIAL HOPEFUL STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £17,013 CH4 6f

3 of the last 10 runnings went to the favourite
8 of the last 10 returned 9/2 or SHORTER in the betting
8 of the last 10 were won by either a 4 or 5 year-old – SON OF THE CAT (5), MONSIEUR CHEVALIER (4) & MAC’S POWER (5)
Only 1 of the last 10 won their previous race
8 of the last 10 finished UNPLACED in their last race
Richard Hannon won this race in 2008 - MONSIEUR CHEVALIER
Only one 3 year-old winner in the last 10 years – CINDERKAMP, COCHABAMBA & SWISS DREAM
Roger Teal is 2 from 5 with his 3 year-olds at the track - COCHABAMBA
Chris Wall is 6 from 29 (21%) with his older horses here – ROYAL ROCK
Dandy Nicholls is only 1 from 34 with his 4+year-olds at Newmarket - CAPONE
Tom Queally has a +£42 level stakes profit when riding 4 year-olds at the track - CAPONE
Pat Cosgrave has a +£43 level stakes profit when riding 4 year-olds at the track – MAC’S POWER

 BET HERE

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