Two Very Promising Angles To Look Into…

Teach a man to fish, and he'll eat forever

Teach a man to fish, and he'll eat forever

As you'll know, here at geegeez.co.uk, we recognise that it is a case of different strokes for different folks.

Some readers like to be given a strong steer for what to go at, which is where the likes of Stat of the Day (five nice winners from the seven horses last week, so expect some losers this week 😉 ), Well I Declare, Trainer Stats and the Saturday TV Trends come in; and others would rather be pointed towards an idea or promising area, in which they can muck about with a few scenarios themselves.

In other words, some want to learn to fish, and some just want to eat fish... Hmm, I'm not sure that actually explains things better than my original verbose paragraph!

Well anyway, today I want to share with you a couple of excellent angles from a systems building perspective. Both have their bases in simplicity, but neither should be castigated or dismissed for that alone. Indeed, they both have the same underlying logic, which is 'the confidence of connections'.

The first of the two angles, and what that I've used a central pillar of much of my punting and commercial products over the years, is the undeniable certainty that trainers have favourite courses. And identifying who and where is not as hard as you might think. In fact, I've put a little video together to demonstrate this. (Please excuse my nasal tones. I'm suffering from a pesky head cold.)

The second angle I want to share is the market. Here, we're looking at the opinion of connections based on their financial support in the betting markets. Specifically, I'm looking for horses that have been supported in the early betting.

What I'll generally do is log in to the Geegeez odds comparison tool around midday for Winter racing, and a bit later in the summer, and look for the heavy lines of blue. Let me show you what I mean here.

As you can see from some of the results in that video, it's remarkable how well this pans out. When I was tracking this last week, there were a couple of 16/1 winners highlighted as well.

Now what I can't say is whether this second approach has long term merit, because a) I've only been looking at it for a short time, and b) clearly, we're generally missing out on the best prices by siding with horses that have already been supported.

Your first 30 days for just £1

But I'm confident that this is a way to at least assure yourself that today might be the day, if you've identified a fancy by another means.

********

On another note, a couple of points of admin / update.

Firstly, I've been a little remiss on my Fantasy Football updates, and need to bring things up to speed. With that in mind, congratulations to November's poker-playing (presumably) top of the pops, Stuart Atkinson, and his 6 3 Off Suit. And what a fine hand that is, indeed! 😉

December's prize was plundered by... Stuart Atkinson, with his 6 3 Off Suit. Incredible!

So Stuart, please contact me at info@geegeez.co.uk and we'll arrange your two months' access to the ucantlose arb'ing service.

In the overall reckoning, Stuart still has a fair bit to find to challenge the top spots. Up there in the rarefied air, we have Stewart O'Sullivan's Without A Paddle in third place; MaybeMaybeNot's lucky? in second; and, still a bit clear in first is Bob Gates' Lukaura United, where he's been for much of the season, with a huge 1,166 points so far.

Who can knock Bob off his perch, as we head into the second half of the season?

Incidentally, must try harder mentions for er, yours truly, who is currently languishing in 62nd position, but at least threatening a top fifty finish after a laboured start... and current wooden spooner, John Lennox and his abysmal WeAre United. Come on John, there's still time to turn it around..! 😉

********

Lastly, it's time for another of those question type poll thingies. As I mentioned at the top of today's post, everything we do here at geegeez is a case of different strokes for different folks. So, of course, I appreciate that not everything we cover will be of interest to all readers.

With that in mind, I'm interested to know whether you might prefer a less frequent email in your box. Or perhaps you'd like a daily update now we have so much content on the site? Heck, maybe you just like things exactly as they are. Well, with the quick question below, you can tell me how you'd prefer us to communicate with you.

[poll id="40"]

Thanks for your time.

And if you thought the videos were instructive, please (please!) click the facebook like and twitter tweet thingies. It's much appreciated.

Matt

Your first 30 days for just £1
11 replies
  1. Ed says:

    Thanks Matt,

    This is very interesting piece of information of trainer and race-track stats combo. Using the Racing post and the trainer/track stat selection hopefully give us punter,s and edge for winning with confidence.

    Again Thanks Matt, for sharing this important piece of information.

    Libertyed 🙂

  2. DAVE YEATES says:

    Thanks Matt. This is an angle I follow. It must be pointed out, however, that many of the price movements are a result of activity by tipsters. Some bookies, I believe, respond to SOME tipsters BEFORE the tipped horse is backed. I have received confirmation of this from a high profile tipping source (not horse-racing, but the point remains).
    What worries me about this approach is that bookies need to stay one step ahead of you, it is expedient for the success of their business. They have been known to chuck in a red herring or three.
    A case in point is Caribbs Leap, a horse which you have pointed out as backed in the 3.10 at Taunton. I received an email tip for this horse from a high profile tipster at 7.47 this morning when you could have taken 11-1.

    Thanks again, keep up the great work.

    Dave Yeates

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      It’s a good point you make, Dave, and of course correct.

      The point is that – occasionally red herring notwithstanding – most horses shortened in the betting are feared results by bookmakers. So following them, despite taking a slightly poorer price than the best early odds, may still prove profitable.

      I’m not certain this is the case, and my sample size is small currently. But using the approach as a starting point (or a finishing point if you’ve already handicapped a race and want to see how the market feels) is likely to yield dividends, in my opinion.

      Best,
      Matt

  3. david says:

    Hi Matt

    Very interesting you highlighted Mr Sheridan at Wolves. I looked at Needwood Ridge and Polemica on my ratings and they almost rated as a bet for me. They do appear to have been slightly out of form lately, however, and this, coupled with NR’s draw, made me a bit tentative. I’m waiting for the first to make my mind up on the second!

    It is a very handy little tool though and often helps turn a “possible” into a “probable”.

    Thanks
    David

  4. Ed says:

    Good advice Matt on both techniques.

    I have been monitoring the market, combined with Trainer strike rates and basic form reading for years now and have had some amazing results. Using your multi bet builder and betting through the card with various doubles and trebles can really boost your bank!

    I agree witt Dave also in that you need to be aware of Mug Punting. What I mean is support from tips rather than connections!

    Anyway keep up the good work and good luck with everyones punting!

    Ed

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks for the comment, Ed, and glad you’re enjoying the multi-bet builder. It really is a great tool for perming up wagers.

      For those that might be interested in that, it’s available inside my HorseRacingExperts site, here: http://www.horseracingexperts.co.uk/

      Best Regards,
      Matt

  5. Kevin says:

    Hi Matt

    interesting stuff Betfair highlight the market movers too at betting.betfair. This make shave a few minutes off the work! you can also back track them since the last few days posts are available. Interesting to know whether the drifters are more profitable or whether a percentage drop is significant? Plenty of research to do on this yet!
    Good luck to all!
    http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/daily-racing-info/betfair-market-movers/afternoon-market-movers-monday-january-9-090112.html

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      That is interesting Kevin, and I have to say I wasn’t aware of that. Obviously, different horses can be supported on the exchanges from those backed with the bookies, but all info of this kind is powerful.

      Like Ed and Dave said though, it is prudent to do some further investigation, to sort the likely ‘jobs’ from the red fish. 😉

      Matt

  6. Craig says:

    Neeedwood Blade close 2nd. Cracking value e/w bet at the 14/1 I took….’Nuff said about how effective this method is Matt. They talk about ‘horses for courses’ but ‘trainers for courses’ is the way to go! 🙂

Comments are closed.