As you'll know, here at geegeez.co.uk, we recognise that it is a case of different strokes for different folks.
Some readers like to be given a strong steer for what to go at, which is where the likes of Stat of the Day (five nice winners from the seven horses last week, so expect some losers this week 😉 ), Well I Declare, Trainer Stats and the Saturday TV Trends come in; and others would rather be pointed towards an idea or promising area, in which they can muck about with a few scenarios themselves.
In other words, some want to learn to fish, and some just want to eat fish... Hmm, I'm not sure that actually explains things better than my original verbose paragraph!
Well anyway, today I want to share with you a couple of excellent angles from a systems building perspective. Both have their bases in simplicity, but neither should be castigated or dismissed for that alone. Indeed, they both have the same underlying logic, which is 'the confidence of connections'.
The first of the two angles, and what that I've used a central pillar of much of my punting and commercial products over the years, is the undeniable certainty that trainers have favourite courses. And identifying who and where is not as hard as you might think. In fact, I've put a little video together to demonstrate this. (Please excuse my nasal tones. I'm suffering from a pesky head cold.)
The second angle I want to share is the market. Here, we're looking at the opinion of connections based on their financial support in the betting markets. Specifically, I'm looking for horses that have been supported in the early betting.
What I'll generally do is log in to the Geegeez odds comparison tool around midday for Winter racing, and a bit later in the summer, and look for the heavy lines of blue. Let me show you what I mean here.
As you can see from some of the results in that video, it's remarkable how well this pans out. When I was tracking this last week, there were a couple of 16/1 winners highlighted as well.
Now what I can't say is whether this second approach has long term merit, because a) I've only been looking at it for a short time, and b) clearly, we're generally missing out on the best prices by siding with horses that have already been supported.
But I'm confident that this is a way to at least assure yourself that today might be the day, if you've identified a fancy by another means.
On another note, a couple of points of admin / update.
Firstly, I've been a little remiss on my Fantasy Football updates, and need to bring things up to speed. With that in mind, congratulations to November's poker-playing (presumably) top of the pops, Stuart Atkinson, and his 6 3 Off Suit. And what a fine hand that is, indeed! 😉
December's prize was plundered by... Stuart Atkinson, with his 6 3 Off Suit. Incredible!
So Stuart, please contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org and we'll arrange your two months' access to the ucantlose arb'ing service.
In the overall reckoning, Stuart still has a fair bit to find to challenge the top spots. Up there in the rarefied air, we have Stewart O'Sullivan's Without A Paddle in third place; MaybeMaybeNot's lucky? in second; and, still a bit clear in first is Bob Gates' Lukaura United, where he's been for much of the season, with a huge 1,166 points so far.
Who can knock Bob off his perch, as we head into the second half of the season?
Incidentally, must try harder mentions for er, yours truly, who is currently languishing in 62nd position, but at least threatening a top fifty finish after a laboured start... and current wooden spooner, John Lennox and his abysmal WeAre United. Come on John, there's still time to turn it around..! 😉
Lastly, it's time for another of those question type poll thingies. As I mentioned at the top of today's post, everything we do here at geegeez is a case of different strokes for different folks. So, of course, I appreciate that not everything we cover will be of interest to all readers.
With that in mind, I'm interested to know whether you might prefer a less frequent email in your box. Or perhaps you'd like a daily update now we have so much content on the site? Heck, maybe you just like things exactly as they are. Well, with the quick question below, you can tell me how you'd prefer us to communicate with you.
Thanks for your time.
And if you thought the videos were instructive, please (please!) click the facebook like and twitter tweet thingies. It's much appreciated.