Ken Condon's Romanised looks Royal Ascot-bound

Two Year Old Watch: Late May 2017

As you will know, geegeez.co.uk carries ratings for all UK flat races (as well as NH races between September and April). These ratings, though referred to as SR, are actually performance ratings. In layman's terms, they consider more factors than 'just' speed or 'just' form: they are a conglomerate figure. And they are attributed to horses and races as the output from a complex neural network program devised by Dr Peter May.

We license the 'master' race figures from Peter, but he has lots of background detail for those wishing to delve further into the numbers via his own subscription service (see this link).

One of the best uses of ratings, arguably at least, is in two-year-old races. Here, typically, inexperienced horses run as fast as they can for as long as they can at sprint distances (in the early part of the season). The numbers then should be revealing.

Peter has kindly allowed me to pull back the curtain (cliché klaxon!) on his latest juvenile ratings and, if you like what you read, we'll make this a periodic addition!

So, here are the top ten performers as of now.

 

Top Ten Juveniles, 24th May 2017

Horse PR[Going,Distance] Trainer
OUT OF THE FLAMES   90[GD5] R HANNON
SANTRY (IRE)   86[SF5] D CARROLL
BLACK ORANGE   85[GD5] MISS GAY KELLEWAY
DRAGONS TAIL (IRE)   84[GD5] TOM DASCOMBE
BROTHER BEAR (IRE)   83[GF6] MRS JOHN HARRINGTON
ALPHA CENTAURI (IRE)   82[GF6] MRS JOHN HARRINGTON
KODITIME (IRE)   82[GF5] C G COX
MOONLIGHT BAY   82[HY5] K M PRENDERGAST
NEOLA   82[GD5] M R CHANNON
ERTIYAD   81[GF5] W J HAGGAS

 

Note that three of the ten are Irish-trained horses; and, perhaps, especially note that Jessica Harrington's Alpha Centauri - about whom the hacks have been raving recently - is not even the best juvenile seen out from the yard so far (according to these ratings at least)! That honour goes to Brother Bear, a decisive winner over six furlongs on debut from a subsequent scorer, and he looks an interesting Coventry Stakes outsider at the Royal meeting.

Top of the shop so far, however, is Richard Hannon's twice-raced Showcasing filly, Out Of The Flames. Owned by Qatar Racing, she went down narrowly in a three-way finish at Ascot on debut. A winner on her only subsequent start, in a fillies' novice event at Windsor, she looks a viable option for something like the Queen Mary Stakes (five furlongs) or Albany Stakes (six furlongs) at Royal Ascot.

But what of the once raced juveniles? Which of those have shown most on racecourse debut? And, based on history, which are most likely to step forward for the experience?

 

Top Ten (and equal) Once Raced Juveniles, 24th May 2017

Horse PR[Going,Distance] Trainer
BROTHER BEAR (IRE)   83[GF6] MRS JOHN HARRINGTON
ERTIYAD   81[GF5] W J HAGGAS
MRS GALLAGHER   81[GF5] W JARVIS
KICK ON KICK ON   79[GD5] C G COX
ROMANISED (IRE)   79[GD6] K J CONDON
BRICK BY BRICK (IRE)   78[GD6] MRS JOHN HARRINGTON
DENAAR (IRE)   78[SF6] R HANNON
LAST VOYAGE (USA)   78[GD5] CHARLIE APPLEBY
ROYAL DIPLOMAT (IRE)   78[HY5] ADRIAN PAUL KEATLEY
AQABAH (USA)   77[GF5] CHARLIE APPLEBY
SOUND AND SILENCE   77[GF5] CHARLIE APPLEBY

 

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Some more interesting things to note. Firstly, Jessica (Mrs John) Harrington, has yet another high figure juvie lurking in this list in the shape of 78-rated Brick By Brick. But that one had to settle for second best behind Ken Condon's Romanised, rated 79, who was talked up as a Coventry candidate by his down-to-earth handler. It was a taking effort, Shane Foley having to manoeuvre his mount for a run a furlong and a half from home, and the son of Holy Roman Emperor quickened right away from Aidan O'Brien's Declarationofpeace (74) before passing Brick By Brick in the final yards.

That Condon's colt is 16/1 and O'Brien's is half those odds would be more to do with the relative strength of the outfits than the merit of those two horses, and you won't need me to stress any further where the value lies. Condon's two-year-olds tend to come on for the run, which is another pointer to this lad's chances.

The domestic once-raced charge is led at this stage by two five-furlong fillies, both trained by William's. William Haggas's Ertiyad was a nose behind William Jarvis's Mrs Gallagher in the Ascot maiden in which the aforementioned Out Of The Flames was a further nostril back in third. That race, run on 12th May, may be one to follow, with the seventh and tenth going close at decent prices (7/1 and 16/1) since, from four subsequent starters (Out Of The Flames won, as mentioned; Cardaw Lily disappointing next time).

Charlie Appleby has three once-raced entries in the top ten (eleven, in fact), all of them at the lower end. But Appleby is a trainer whose juvenile win rate in the last two years steps forward from a very healthy 17% first time out to a leading 29% on second start. All of Last Voyage, Aqabah, and Sound And Silence offer the prospect of marked improvement on their next outings, then.

The last named, whose Newmarket debut win has been very well advertised (2nd, 5th and 9th have all won since), is entered in the Listed National Stakes at Sandown Park tomorrow night.

Clive Cox is another trainer whose horses generally progress for the run. His win strike rate with juvenile debutants in the last two years is 11%, whereas those with the benefit of a run have converted at 20%. Cox's Koditime leapt from a 71 first time out to an 82 on second start, and a similar improvement from the once-raced Kick On Kick On, a four length debut winner at Leicester, will see him go very close in a novice event at Goodwood tomorrow, where he'll face a field of first time starters - any one of which could be well above average, of course.

 

The Tracker

If you want to follow any of these horses, the Geegeez Tracker is your friend. Set it up to receive email notifications either the night before or at the five day declaration stage (or both), and be sure not to miss another one you've spotted again!

Good luck,

Matt

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9 replies
  1. Michael says:

    Hi! Thank you for the insight!! Symbolism symbols. Please explain the numbers and the symbolism? GF5? PR G Distance what is the critical information to know about a horse. Trainer JOcky That is relevant and influences the outcome of a winner getting a place 1,2,3 and getting our $ back? Your place pots selection for example did not show up on the radar in a recipient suggestion from you. You have a computer! I am mainly getting my information from the daily press! Thank you.

    Reply
  2. sondrio2 says:

    Thanks Matt, im a frequent visitor to Peters site, this is very useful and definatly going in my tracker.
    cheers
    george

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi David

      77 for DBH.

      [For info/others, I’ll not be sharing any further figures – the link to Peter’s site is in the post 😉 ]

      Best,
      Matt

      Reply
  3. Bubbles180 says:

    What i have noticed is early 2 yo with top ratings dont seem to perform better later in the season so far from 14 have run again after this date, 32 racesin total, 3 winners, 6 placed and 23 lost.
    Winners SP 5/4, 4/9 and 2/5
    Placed SP 2/1, 5/4, 5/2, 11/4, 4/1, 13/2.

    Reply

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