Value Value VALUE
Where to find value...
In the good old days, punters used to talk about 'the three D's'. These were discipline, discipline and discipline. Many of you - like me - will relate to that readily enough, as selectivity is generally the key to success in betting.
But in the modern day betting supermarket, where the exact same product (i.e. a horse in a race, or a team in a match) is offered at often curiously differing prices, depending on the brand (i.e. the bookmaker), the three V's - value, value and value - might be the new maxim for successful betting.
Now, obviously, discipline is still as relevant as it ever was. It will always be a fundamental cornerstone that sets apart those who win from those who don't. But life has become a lot easier with the advent of a) online bookmaker offers, and b) comparison portals. In a second we can see which bookmaker has the best offer on our fancy.
Better yet, if the bookie offers Best Odds Guaranteed, we have the chance of a price drift topping up our odds still further.
What this ultimately means is that you could be, for instance, in the beer aisle, looking at twelve cases of Old Gobhoblin Pale Fizzer. Each case is the same, and seven of them have the same price on them, £9.99. But the other five are different. Two say £10.50, two say £9.49, and the other one says £7.99. You really like Old Gobhoblin Pale Fizzer. Which one do you pick up?
It's a no brainer that you'd pick up the cheapest, right? I mean, that's a 20% difference in price in your favour and, if you drink a case of Pale Fizzer a day, you'll have almost enough money saved to pay for the liver transplant 😉
But here's where it gets better. When you get to the checkout, the cashier says, "Oh, this is on special offer this week. It's only £6.99". Bingo, you've saved another 10%.
This is EXACTLY how shopping around for the best odds, and using Best Odds Guaranteed, works. We're looking for the best bargain every time.
How many of us would knowingly pay 20% more for our shopping than we needed to? Not many, of course. And yet, there are still lots and lots and lots of punters who think it doesn't matter about getting the best price; that a point here or there makes no difference.
It's just weird. I mean, the survey we recently did revealed that most people who visit geegeez bet every day. And yet 42% have five or less chances to get a bargain - in other words, five or less accounts.
Let me just quickly say that if you mainly bet for fun/entertainment/to solve the puzzle, then it maybe doesn't matter. But to anyone who said they bet to win money, and they have just a few accounts, you are making it extremely difficult for yourselves.
OK, sermon over!
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Things you need to know today then...
1. Racebets is the latest bookmaker to offer Best Odds Guaranteed. They are a growing brand in UK and appear in most odds comparison charts these days. They have a dizzying array of money back concessions, and offer a £50 deposit match for new customers. If you use BOG bookies, add this to your set.
2. How about a completely risk free no catch bet? Betbright are offering new customers a £30 no lose bet on the World Cup semi-finals. Here's how it works: you make a bet. If it wins, you get paid out. If it loses, you get your money back. You follow? You must use this link to qualify, as it has a special tracking code associated with it.
3. If you already have a Betbright account, note that they'll be refunding correct score and scorecast bets if a semi-final match ends 0-0. Given that the Dutch and the Argentinians have had real trouble scoring in the knockout phases, and that Brazil could be toothless without Neymar, and that Germany have had two 1-0's in their last three games, this looks a very good safety net if that's your sort of wager.
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Let's talk about another manifestation of value. Tote pools. Not just any old tote pool. Some of them are rancid pools. But some are not. Those with guaranteed pool sizes where the amount of player cash falls short of the guarantee are value. Rollovers are value. Why? Because in both cases, someone else is putting money in the pot for you to potentially take out.
I've had enormous success with Colossus Bets during this World Cup, netting three Pick 4's worth over £3,700. Each of them to a 20p winning stake (though my total bet stake was significantly higher). Colossus is a pool bet on correct scores, and every pool is guaranteed, with many of them not reaching the guarantee figure from player funds. Put another way, the pools are being subsidised.
After my own success (£1,059 for a £36 bet), I formed a little syndicate - seven readers and I each put in £50, to make a pot of £400. On our first attempt, we scooped just over £1,500 (£1,570); and on our second attempt we scooped just under £1,500 (£1,485).
Each of these pools was attractive to me/the syndicate because it had either a rollover or a guaranteed minimum fund that I didn't believe would be matched. That is to say that each time I was helping myself to a spot of someone else's cash. Nice, right?
The last Colossus Bets Pick 4 of the World Cup starts with the first semi-final tonight, and then takes in semi-final 2, the 3rd/4th place match, and the final. Obviously, it involves some conjecture into which teams will make the final, but that's the same for everyone and adds spice to the mix!
Our syndicate has dissolved now, and I'll be having a solo crack at the £50,000 guaranteed pool. At the time of writing, there's just £3,880 in the pool, meaning there is a strong likelihood of the pot being subsidised by Colossus. Which means, of course, that there's free money up for grabs, if we're smart/lucky enough to nail a winning quartet of correct scores.
You can read my review of ColossusBets here. And if you've had a crack at these pools already, leave a comment and let people know what you thought, and how you got on.
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Value, Value, VALUE. How good a value proposition is free? Answer, varying degrees of good.
Most free stuff is free for a reason. It will actually cost you time (and possibly money) to figure out it's no good.
Other free stuff is free for another reason: it showcases the value of a product or service and acts as a potential incentive for users to 'trade up'. It's great content from which the user can benefit, and there's no hard feelings if that user doesn't want to move to a premium level of service.
Welcome to Double Dutch, the daily free tip service on geegeez. It's a service that currently shows a profit of 68.08 points, from just 260 betting days. We bet two points a day, split across two horses in two races - a 2 x 2 double. And the return on stakes is over 13%, which is way better than a majority of premium services.
We love - perhaps I should say, I love - this service, and we're very proud to offer it. But for some reason it only gets around 200 views a day. Again, weird. Anyway, today's selections can be found in various ways:
i. Go to Horse Racing Tips in the top menu
ii. Click the post on the left hand side of the home page, called 'Double Dutch, 8th July 2014'
iii. Click here
And, if you like Double Dutch, then perhaps you'd like to know about our premium level tipping service, Stat of the Day. This is a one a day service, Monday to Saturday, which has been running since November 2011. In that time, it's accumulated £4,194.20 to £20 level stakes (as at end June; July is well in profit too).
Those aren't mythical 'past performance' figures, they're real time figures from a live service. We get amazing feedback on this service, and I really should put a file together because there must be over 200 - maybe more than that - incredible comments. Here are a couple from the last few days:
PauljD said:
Having been out all day this was a “fire and forget” bet so a very pleasant surprise when I got to the results! Very nice drift as well. I note that the DD came in too although I missed that one, got yesterday’s though. Very well done and a big thank you for this week’s tips.
Doshtosh said:
On days like this, and there are so many, I want to write in to thank you, Chris and Matt, for a service, the likes of which I have never seen before, and if I wasn’t involved, thank God I am, I wouldn’t have believed existed. It’s not just the winners and profit, though they are no 1 but so much more on the web site and notifications to our emails. Thanks, so very much and have a great weekend. I hope we meet, someday, even if there will be sore heads the following day…..at my expense, it would be a pleasure.
RonCombo said:
What a brilliant day on Saturday Chris. SoTD with a super drift and DD, all coming in as winners. Then I had De Rigeur (14s) from the Shortlist and Salvatore Fury (9/2) and Sandra’s Diamond (13/2), both from the Tracker system which I bought into. Thank you (yet again) GeeGeez!
And fatboyjim said:
Incredible stuff once again. Got to be the best value out there, I have finally learned how to use the race cards to suit my own style of punting and had some big winners over the weekend.
If anyone remembers the SotD highlighted the Haggas/Hanagan a couple of weeks ago, well they certainly did the job yesterday. Also had Mister Wiseman today using the cards.
Diamond in the service though is the wonderful SotD, brilliant. I use 2% of rolling bank and I am in dreamland.
Those comments related to just one winner on one day. Stat of the Day has had 248 winners from 861 runners as at the end of June, a strike rate of 29% - favourites win at about 30%! - and for a return on investment of a mouth-watering pant-wetting account-threatening 24%.
All from one bet a day.
Best of all? This is just one part of the Geegeez Gold service. Worth way more than £24 a month on its own, it is supported by the racecards, form tools and reports that you will have heard me talk about previously.
Value. Value Value VALUE. It underscores everything we try to do here at geegeez, from offering a tip service to helping people understand the 'easy' ways to get the best chance of winning at betting.
You can try Gold for ten days for free (now that's value!). And if you like it, you can stay on board for 80p a day. You know what the guys above think about it, so perhaps it's time you gave it a whirl. What have you got to lose?
Here's the link if you want to join the hundreds of Gold subscribers whose betting has gone to another level.
Oh, and while I'm at it, the three Gold subscribers below found 33/1 winner Prince Tom yesterday using their Gold subscription. It was a fairly obvious selection for a number of reasons highlighted on Gold. But with form figures of /PB-5P the public totally ignored it. It paid 44.81 Betfair SP.
Comments and tweets yesterday about Geegeez Gold
.
A couple of quite big sites have asked to trial Geegeez Gold, and the first of their reviews is due soon. This site is not known for effusive praise of products and services, and they never go overboard. In fact, subscribers pay specifically for their hard core unbiased reviews. Well, I've seen a draft copy of their Geegeez Gold review and... let's just say they like Gold. A lot!
Click here to take your ten day free trial of Geegeez Gold
Matt
p.s. I'll be back on Thursday with a preview of day one from Newmarket's excellent July Festival meeting.
p.p.s. Have you any thoughts on the above? Value? Colossus? Stat of the Day/Double Dutch? Geegeez Gold? Leave a comment to enlighten those who may not have seen what you've seen, or know what you know. (And thanks!)
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
won £201.61 for stake of £4 on pick3 my first bet on colossus bets,and got my stake refunded using matt’s link.
Good work, Phil, very well played!
Matt
Hi Matt.
Your sermons on using BOGs bookies are both good and valid, but there is a catch that I’ve not seen you address. (That doesn’t mean you haven’t addressed it, but, if you have, it got under my radar). I don’t think this applies to SotD tips, and it definitely doesn’t apply to DD tips, but others?
There was a fine example of it on “The Shortlist” yesterday: Prince Tom in the 15.45 at Newton Abbot. Suggested at 33/1 if I remember rightly, SP 33/1, but Betfair SP almost 44/1! (44.81 to be exact) Even with the 5% commission, that’s a hell of an extra bonus in the pot when it wins. (As Prince Tom duly did, so thanks – I was on it to both win and place at BSP!)
How do you decide when to use Betfair and/or Betfair SP rather than a BOGs bookie’s price? I have my own ideas, but I’d be interested to know yours – they’re more likely to have more thought behind them than my “finger in the air” method!
Hi Stuart
Good point. There’s little science to it in my opinion, but the general rule of thumb is that the further from the top of the market you go, the better off with Betfair SP you are.
However, for horses priced in single figures, which most winning bets will be, it’s usually better to be on at BOG in my experience.
Matt
Thanks again Matt for a brilliant site.
The Gold service is superb and the race analysis is great – personally, I like the short list report (reflection of my laziness!!) which highlights the horses that look good on the race analysis. Easy to follow and looking forward to another good day.
The other value topic you have mentioned in the past is the Irish Tote with their rollovers -there was a typical one at Gowran Park last week with a rollover just short of 100k and just missed out on a 3500 payout.
Good stuff!!
Absolutely, Jim. Same rules apply – lots of OPM (other people’s money!) in that pool before we joined in. Pity we were scuppered by that rogue front runner…
Matt
p.s. The Shortlist report has, as of today, a new place tab, as well as the existing win tab 😀
I do all my betting on exchanges to allow me to request the odds I feel are appropriate for the runner.
I generally find that the closer to the top of the market you get, the more the runners are over-bet and the less value you can squeeze but the lower the losing run will be for any given system due to the lower odds.
Conversely the lower in the market you get the more value is possible (especially on exchanges!) but you’re statistically going to hit more losers in between your big winners. Also if you happen to not hit on a high odds system’s “big win” you’re shafted as you’ll go straight back into a long losing run.
Very difficult to get the balance right between the two, especially when establishing a decent sized betting bank.
Hi Matt
Through your racecards I was lucky enough to catch the exacta in the 3.45 at Newton Abbot on Monday, I only had it for pennies because as a pensioner thats what I back in, the exacta paid 2097.80 covered mylifetime membership with some left over.
Hi Matt
Everything excellent as always. I’m just not making enough time yet! No excuse, as I’m retired from work!,
Are you interested at all in a small syndicate for the last WC games? I’d be very interested in contributing, both cash and opinions.
Keep up good work.
Cheers Chris
Hi Chris
Thanks for the vote of confidence on the syndicate front. I actually found it quite stressful and am not thinking about the next one yet!
Good luck if you play though – if you’ve got opinions on the games, then why not?!
Matt
Hi Matt. Excellent stuff as always. However!!!
when you talk of value, you are talking about simply obtaining the best price available. Which is of course the right thing to do, always.
But getting the value in racing and betting parlance used to mean getting a price that understates the horse’s true chance of winning.
Obviously if you get the best odds out there, you are also more likely to get the value in the traditional sense too. But I just wanted to make the distinction.
That was all really, keep up the good work.
Hi Rob
Yes, of course. I should have been explicit about that. As you point out, I did mean that the initial best price has to be bigger than the perceived true odds of success.
Catch up soon,
Matt
Hi Matt, saw you tweeted about East Coast Lady in the 3.50 at HQ today. Picked her up this morning in the place section of The Shortlist at 33s which I took. Breezed the race. R4? 79p in the £. Ouch! But still shows the sheer value of the GeeGeez package.