How to create an odds line, aka tissue, in horseracing

Video: Creating an Odds Line / Tissue

Following on from Dave Renham's excellent article on creating a tissue (which you can read here), I recorded a video which shows how you can do this using Geegeez Gold. The video is quite long because there is a fair bit to work through, but you can get the gist of it without necessarily watching the middle part (though I recommend you do, of course!).

In this recording I looked at a five furlong sprint handicap at Catterick, and was lucky/good enough to find the winner; but I didn't actually do that well in mimicking the market, as you'll see...

 

 

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At the end of the video, I compare the prices I came up with against the final starting prices. The overround was 111% whereas my own was closer to 100% allowing for the late non-runner, but still, I have some work to do in getting my odds closer to the market!

Matt

20/7/23: Another example: this time I got the market (more) right but was undone by a pace tear up I didn't predict in terms of the actual result :-/

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4 replies
  1. Villa5
    Villa5 says:

    Hi Matt
    Great video as always highly informative and a great back up to Dave’s article, but just not sure about the background music? (found it a little off putting… sorry !)
    Otherwise keep up the great work
    Best wishes
    Richard

  2. dohertym22
    dohertym22 says:

    I really enjoyed the video Matt and found it particularly reassuring as I have been doing something very similar for a few years now. In short, I use most of the tools on Geegeez to award points in a similar way.

    Some difference exist though. Looking back over my previous results as I do regularly, I have found some aspects of form carry more weight than others and the points allocation i.e. the weightings, differ accordingly. For instance, from instant expert I have found that ‘distance’ seems to have disproportionately positive effect and I weight this accordingly with more points than say Going. I have found ground conditions seem to carry more weight given an extreme such as ‘heavy’ ground and I will alter my points allocation given the change in circumstances.

    I total up my points at the end and divide by the number of runners. For instance 150 points / 10 runners = 15.

    In a race where the true odds of winning a 10 runner race and where all the horse are of equal ability would be 9/1, any horse that falls below the median score of 15 will be priced at greater odds than 9/1. To what extent more than 9/1 depends on how far below the median of 15 they fall. Once I have sorted the outsiders, I then tackle those above the median of 15 and of course I use the ‘my ratings’ tab in Geegeez to calculate the percentage and overround.

    Over time and with practice I found my pricing up to have improved enormously. It is time consuming and it takes me approximately an hour to weigh up a race which effectively for me means I only get to price up one or maybe two races a night.

    I will always look to back the horse who to my eyes appears to be overpriced rather than the one with the highest points total and whilst I havent had any of my accounts stopped yet, this approach seems to pay off for me

    Thanks again Matt for everything you and team do to keep us better informed.

    Cheers Martin

    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Martin

      Thanks so much for sharing this. It’s almost exactly what I’ve been thinking about in terms of creating a feature whereby users can rate races more easily based on factors (e.g. distance, going) and weighting (e.g. +20% for heavy ground).

      I’m currently thinking about priorities for the second half of the year, and this is in the mix (because the same functionalty will enable me to create / experiment with a set of ‘geegeez ratings’).

      Matt

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