So frustrating yesterday, as I could easily have added Candy Kitten. I wrote, "The rest probably don't count, though Candy Kitten wasn't beaten far on debut and will know more this time". Alas, the rest did count and filled out the first two places. I'm reliably informed that Quantify hated the ground, so she'd be of interest on a softer surface in the near future.
Today, we're at Warwick, which is the best of a bad lot, truth be told.
2.10 - Leg 1: A messy little rate to kick off, with the once-raced pair of Saigon City and Muthmir separated by just two necks on debut, and likely to be difficult to separate again. Perhaps the form choice is Sedenoo, which has had more goes than most of these but ran a sound race in handicap company last time, finishing less than five lengths behind Consign.
That looks a solid level in this context, and he's an A pick. I'll back him up with Muthmir, simply because he's likely to be bet less than Saigon City and I feel their chances are inseparable.
A - 4 (Muthmir), 7 (Sedenoo)
2.40 - Leg 2: This should be between two, and they both go on A. That Winnie Perry is potentially dangerous, but I'll hope the drop back to five doesn't bring enough improvement to win. Just in case, and because it's a tight perm today, I'm chucking in a C ticket with him on, meaning all other races need to furnish us with a placing A selection.
A - 1 (Silca's Dream), 2 (Buy Art)
C - 3 (Winnie Perry)
3.10 - Leg 3: The two solid options here are Minalisa and Alnoomaas. The former is a course and distance winner, and drops in grade here. She might just want it a little softer but is worth a chance on familiar territory. Alnoomaas is a super-consistent sort for Luke Dace, and he too should be thereabouts. Although his four wins have all been on the all weather, he's run very close in his last two turf runs. Six furlongs is his trip and good to firm likely his going, and the only slight niggle is that he's nudging up the ratings for his consistency.
As a more speculative offering, Lunar Deity could go well. He probably needed his first run of the season, before an eye-catching effort in a 25-runner field at Ascot. Picture Dealer was a fair way behind him that day. He then ran no race at Yarmouth, and it might have been the trip (seven furlongs) or the track (straight and doggy) which did for him there. Back on a turning track and over six furlongs, he has back form to make the frame.
Indian Affair has been in the first five in twenty of his 21 runs so far, and was sixth on the other occasion! That level of reliability means he won't be far away, and makes B for his efforts.
A - 4 (Minalisa), 5 (Alnoomaas)
B - 3 (Lunar Deity), 9 (Indian Affair)
3.40 - Leg 4: A Listed fillies' event, trainer Ed McMahon won this last year, and he has a good chance again this time with Winning Express, rated 107. She was second in the Group 1 Cheveley Park last backend, and this season has run third in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn, and fourth in the 1000 Guineas. Given the franks to that form from Sky Lantern and Just The Judge, she looks very strong here, and I make her banker material.
A - 2 (Winning Express)
4.10 - Leg 5: A nice little handicap to finish, and the remaining units should be spread fairly well here. Al Thumama is only four pounds higher than when winning last time, and she ought again to run well. Echo Brava is another on a small upward curve, and she's followed up two wins with two creditable efforts, the latter in higher grade and over this sort of trip. An extra furlong wouldn't necessarily be what she's after, but the trainer is respected, and she's just three pounds north of that last winning mark earned three starts back.
Uncle Bernie might run a bit better now he's in handicap company after the obligatory three runs in maidens, and he sneaks onto B, as does Continental Divide despite a reservation that the trip is too far.
A - 2 (Echo Brava), 3 (Al Thumama)
B - 1 (Continental Divide), 4 (Uncle Bernie)
4.40 - Leg 6: Paphos got out and stayed out last time, and this is a pace-favouring course, meaning he has a good chance of doing the same again. In fact, I think he has a great place chance and am banking on him, safe in the knowledge that I can place lay him if we're still running heading into this race.
A - 1 (Paphos)
Just A's - 2 x 2 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 1 = 16 bets
All picks - 2 x 3 x 4 x 1 x 3 x 1 = 72 bets
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