Weak Ened, And W2L Update

These things are sent to try us, dear reader, and try us they might...

Geegeez has seen a brief haitus this weekend, as I've had to attend to personal relationship matters once more. Yes, it seems that having an opinionated, stroppy, omniscient boyfriend is not every girl's cup of tea, and the future Mrs Bisogs has decided that she'd rather look elsewhere for mating material.

I wasn't thus terribly motivated to share my thoughts with you over the weekend, which - if you also follow Gavin's excellent Nag3 blog - will have been hugely beneficial, as he put up the winner of the Ayr Gold Cup at 28/1.

Of course, my shouts in the Silver Cup suffered similar fates to Gavin's traditional selections, filling out the places.

Harrison George was second at 10/1; Bel Cantor was 4th at 16/1; and Marvellous Value was just that, finishing 5th at 50/1. Only the 25/1 shot Green Park was out of it from my quartet.

Low draws had the call whereas on Saturday in the Gold Cup it was high numbers who prevailed.

What does this tell us?

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IMPORTANT LEARNING: THE BIAS IS WHERE THE PACE IS AT AYR, NOT BASED ON GROUND.

They will try to tell you differently, but the previous ten runnings of the Silver Cup had seen three low drawn winners, three middle drawn, and four high drawn. Please don't tell me there's a bias there.

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Onto Winners To Losers system, and there have been a number of runners since I lost wrote, all beaten except one. The one that won was 15/2, which has put rather a sizeable dent in our fledgling profit and loss statement, as follows:

Date Course Horse Odds Result P/L to £20 P/L
17-Sep Yarmouth Grand Vizier 3.5 9 £19 £19
18-Sep Ayr Wicked Wilma 5 10 £19 £38
18-Sep Yarmouth Jagger 14 5 £19 £57
19-Sep Ayr Highland Warrior 7 4 £19 £76
19-Sep Ayr Regal Royale 12 9 £19 £95
19-Sep Wolves Strike Force 7.5 1 -£174 -£79
20-Sep Ayr Kings Point 5.5 2 £19 -£60
20-Sep Catterick Woody Waller 7 4 £19 -£41
20-Sep Newmarket Mount Lavinia 9 9 £19 -£22
20-Sep Newmarket Red Somerset 12 7 £19 -£3

Overall data on this is as follows:

Bets 10
Losers 9
Lose % 90.00
Av Odds 8.25
Winners 1
Total win odds 7.5
Ave Win Odds 7.50
Ave BF Odds 8.70

Despite the winner, the overall profile of results remains promising, with eight of the ten being unplaced, so mercifully few heart rending moments thus far.

Today there are three at Hamilton (in the 3.10, 4.10 and 5.10), one in the 4.50 at Leicester, and one in the 5.30 Kempton; five it total.

There is nothing to tempt me into a wager, as is generally the case of a Monday. When it comes to discipline, unless you're following a system, another good rule is to take Mondays off!

With that in mind, I'm off for a lie down... (actually, that's not strictly true. I'm writing this on the train to Dorset, where I'm visiting my family. I'm also writing a specification for a piece of speed rating software which, if I can afford to have it built, should be v-e-r-y interesting indeed!)

Until next time,
Matt

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1 reply
  1. Anonymous says:

    Never mind Matt, sounds like she had a wide draw and had to do allher best work coming out of the stalls and had no stamina for the finish.
    Chin up, regards
    Phil

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