Weekend Football Value Bets

Rodgers and Moyes go head to head

Rodgers and Moyes go head to head

In the first of a new weekly column, BettingLive.com's Jonathan Turner highlights a double, a treble, and a banker win single on this weekend's Premier League action...

The aim of this column is highlighting the best betting value on the weekend's Premier League fixtures regardless of whether it comes in the live TV matches or in the game hidden down at the bottom of the running order on Match Of The Day.

But this week there's a clear overlap between high profile and decent value as both Manchester United and Tottenham look overpriced for victories on a Super Sunday which needs none of the usual hype.

United travel to bitter rivals Liverpool and looking at the prices (Liverpool 13/8, United 19/10 and the draw 12/5) you'd think there's been clear evidence that Brendan Rodgers' men have closed the chasm between themselves and the reigning champions.

No less than 28 points separated the pair last season, with 37 points the year before that and United have run out 2-1 winners in the last three clashes between the pair.

Liverpool may go into the game with the 100% record but we've had just two games so far, with the Reds winning 1-0 against both Stoke and Aston Villa. That pair were both involved in relegation battles last season so this is the first real test against not only a top-half side but the team which finished top of the pile.

And their record in those encounters last season doesn’t make pretty reading – just two wins out of nine at Anfield against their fellow top-10 teams and three out of 18 if we add in away fixtures. It’s even worse against top-four opposition, with their results reading P8 W0 D5 L3 and in four of the five draws they were indebted to goals from Luis Suarez who sits this one out as he serves the remainder of his 10-match ban.

Plenty will argue that they are now facing a very different Manchester United side but the only real change is in the dugout where David Moyes has taken over from Sir Alex Ferguson.

The squad is virtually identical to the one which cruised to the title last season and they've started well enough too, producing some clinical finishing to win a tricky opener 4-1 at Swansea before playing out a bore draw on Monday night against Chelsea after Jose Mourinho chose to park the bus and take a point.

United are at their most lethal when able to counterattack and there should be much more opportunity to do that at Anfield, making those 19/10 quotes look positively generous.

We're doubling them up with Spurs to claim the bragging rights in north London by winning at Arsenal.

There was virtually nothing between this pair last season (just a single point) and despite almost certainly losing Gareth Bale to Real Madrid, it's Tottenham who have strengthened up over the summer.

Striker Roberto Soldado has been on the spot with match-winning penalties in their opening two games while Paulinho and Etienne Capoue have beefed up the midfield.

That physical presence is exactly how Aston Villa were able to silence the Gunners on the opening day of the campaign when winning 3-1 at the Emirates and a subsequent success for Arsenal at Fulham may have steadied the ship but actually told us very little.

A lot like Liverpool, Arsene Wenger's side have been ruthless against sides in the bottom half of the table in recent seasons but struggled to deliver against the teams around them so with no new faces at the club there's no reason why that's suddenly about to change.

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Coral offer that top-price, with the double coming in at 11/1. Plus get a free £50 bet when you open a Coral account.

Coral Sports

Whoever you are backing on Sunday, it's well worth shopping around for the special offers and concessions. Just as the bookies do at the marquee horseracing festivals, they are desperate to grab your business for the blockbuster games.

Bet Victor for example will refund losing correct score, first/last scorer, scorecast and man of the match bets up to a maximum of £25 in Liverpool v United and Arsenal v Spurs if there’s a red card. And while the knee-jerk reaction is to think both matches are blood and thunder clashes, that's not quite borne out by the stats in recent campaigns.

Jonjo Shelvey (now at Swansea) received his marching orders for Liverpool against United last season but that’s the only dismissal in the last seven matches between the pair. In the north London derby it's two red cards in the last three but Michael Oliver is one of the more lenient referees in the top flight and he takes charge of that one.

Our second piece of advice for the weekend's action is guided by the stats, starting with that Arsenal v Spurs showdown. It's a match which consistently produces goals (34 in the last seven), with the over 2.5 line collecting in every one of the last nine meetings between the pair in the league and cup.

And while there's a slight worry that Spurs tend to be more cautious away from home, this fixture appears to be the exception to that rule so over 2.5 goals at the Emirates kicks off our stats treble. Bet Victor are tops at 8/11 for those backing in singles but for the purposes of this treble we're taking the 4/6 with Sky Bet as they are significantly bigger on the other two parts of the wager.

It's to the Etihad next where Manchester City can be backed at 8/11 to keep a clean sheet against newly-promoted Hull.

The ground (called the City of Manchester Stadium in those days) was the scene of Phil Brown's infamous on-pitch half-time teamtalk on Boxing Day in 2008 when Hull trailed 4-0 at the break.

They managed to grab a consolation in the second half that day but the odds are against that happening this weekend. Manchester City have been ruthless on home turf with 34 clean sheets in their last 58 league fixtures and they can add to that tally against a Hull outfit which managed just six points from a possible 57 on their travels when they were last in the top flight, scoring only 12 goals in the process.

The treble is rounded off with under 1.5 goals in Newcastle v Fulham at 11/4.

The Magpies, who have now failed to score in five of their last six games, have managed just one shot on target so far this season (they were thumped 4-0 at Manchester City and then played out a goalless draw at home to West Ham last week).

And Fulham can be expected to set their stall out for a draw, just as they did before producing a late smash-and-grab raid when winning 1-0 at Sunderland on the opening day of the season.

Back the treble with SkyBet at 9.8/1. Plus get a completely free no deposit £10 bet if you're a new customer.

skybet.com

Our final piece of advice and our banker bet of the weekend comes in Cardiff's match with Everton. The Bluebirds stunned Manchester City last weekend but it's the corners market rather than the match result in this one which really interests us.

Cardiff scored twice from flagkicks against City but still only won three corners in total in the game compared to City's eight and it was a similar story in their first match against West Ham.

In stark contrast the Toffees, under new boss Roberto Martinez, have dominated the corner counts in their two games so far (11-1 v West Brom and 8-6 v Norwich).

It's therefore a surprise that we can get odds against (11/10) with bet365 about Everton winning more corners than Cardiff and that looks a decent piece of business.

bet365

Selections:
Double - Manchester United (19/10) to beat Liverpool and Tottenham (13/5) to win at Arsenal, 9.44/1 (Coral).
Treble - Over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v Spurs (4/6), Manchester City to keep a clean sheet against Hull (8/11) and under 1.5 goals in Newcastle v Fulham (11/4), 9.80/1 (Sky Bet)
Weekend banker - Everton to win more corners than Cardiff at 11/10 (bet365).

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14 replies
  1. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Well played Jonathan..fine first effort which will reap its rewards I’ll wager, with the 4/6 stand out price for the Arsenal/Tottenham game to deliver more than two goals. The last five matches between these rivals at the Emirates have produced 30 goals!

    Looking forward to next week’s column already!

    Mal…..

  2. Ravi says:

    Well Done Jonathan and to you too Matt for bringing great new ideas and people like Jonathan. I gone a even 200 on “Everton to win more corners than Cardiff” fingers crossed, but this looks so likely, that I’m tempted to sell the house…

  3. Mark Johnson says:

    Many thanks Jonathan – look forward to following you in the weeks ahead and good luck!
    Mark J

  4. Jonathan Turner says:

    Many thanks Mal, Ravi and Mark, delighted to be on board and will be doing everything I can over the coming weeks/months to highlight the value bets.

    Please don’t be tempted to sell the house though Ravi! If today’s game between Cardiff and Everton was played 10 times then I’d fully expect the Toffees to win more corners on at least half of those occasions which is why the odds of 11/10 appeal. However what we’ve got is a one-off match where team selection, a sending off, an early goal etc could have a huge bearing on the corners make-up. The real test is over the course of the season and if we continually find an edge each week then we should generate profits.

    That also requires constantly re-evaluating things – for example I’ve personally backed Man City on the corner handicaps for each of their first two games as they were strong in this area last season and I felt the arrival of Jesus Navas gave them a significant added threat in terms of winning flag kicks. It paid dividends (8-1 v Newcastle and 8-3 at Cardiff last week) but the bookies have quickly latched on and this week they are asked to give up five corners (rather than three) which is enough to put me off.

  5. @sloanie74 says:

    Great write up Jonathon. I’ll follow with interest. Are you doing a follow up on a Monday to assess the results?

  6. Jonathan Turner says:

    Thanks @sloanie74 – I’ll be assessing the results in the following week’s column, that way we can factor the learnings into the next set of tips.

  7. Ravi says:

    Jonathan…you biscuit…I should have sold the house….Not sure Mrs would have impressed but a great start mate. will be following you closely, no pressure.

    Cheers mate…nice call on Everton winning more corners. Nice to come home after taking Mrs out and to see balance has grown.

  8. Ravi says:

    Oh and “biscuit means a good thing…Now I await the Man U & Spurs double. Got a nice one on that too. Thanks Mate

  9. ross turner says:

    great write up,double went down,treble went down!! 11/10 winner, just shows how hard football tipping is. outstanding racing website, but football tipping is another beast altogether, backing man u and spurs was idiotic even before k.o ,i’ll watch with interest but i think i’ll follow the websites horse tips and my own footy fancies. good luck

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Ross – though I disagree about the bet being ‘idiotic’. It was a selection strongly supported by the historical data, but just didn’t come off. Definitely agree that football is a hard game, but I know Jonathan will be a man to follow over the course of the season.

      Matt

  10. Steve says:

    Didn’t follow your advice as I didn’t want Tottenham or Man Ure to win. But it shows the Bookies were right and they were not overpriced. Perhaps it was a lure to get the punters money.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      It got some of my money Steve. I did have a cheeky tenner on Giroud to score first as well though, at that enhanced 8/1 Ladbrokes were offering. Paid for the losers at least.

      Matt

  11. Jim Cannon says:

    Sure the treble went down but on Arsenal/Spurs not scoring lots of goals. I had a bet on the treble and then bet on Betfair in play to save my stake.
    I don’t often bet on football but I will be following Jonathan’s tips to see how they do.

    Good luck

    Jim

  12. Mike Mckinley-Good says:

    Footy is a difficult one to judge, but historical data aside,simply stepping back and appreciating the passion in such games makes these games risky bets. If there was a cheeky punt available at the weekend it was the Ladbrokes offer Matt mentioned above which could have been taken as a double with Sturridge at enhanced odds also. Unfortunately missed that one 🙁

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