Weekly Roundup

It's been a funny old week, dear reader, with little to tempt me into a bet... with one notable exception, as you'll soon understand. Today, I've got a round up of the week, plus news of something I've been working on for some considerable period of time, and a spot of Thursday Fun.

Jump racing has made a welcome return this week, although it's still blighted by the weather, with some of the higher profile meetings (at Newbury yesterday, and Chepstow tomorrow) abandoned. There was also the small matter of an incredible SIX odds-on shots getting beaten in the three Irish meetings on Sunday / Monday. (See this article for a full Irish round-up, including trainers to follow).

And this is definitely something to look out for over the next few days. In a nutshell, a lot of trainers have been unable to train due to the weather affecting their facilities (though hopefully not their faculties). Thus, a horse with the best form may not be fit enough to justify that level of past performance.

In addition, we have the annual 'prep race' season now, where top horses are running at around 80-85% fitness, as their main objective is Cheltenham in March. A degree of caution is advised...

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Two horses I was especially interested in this week were Baggsy and Obvious. The reason? They're the Geegeez Racing Club horses, and they both raced since Saturday.

Baggsy ran a pleasing 4th of seven in a Lingfield maiden, and - that being her third maiden run - now has a handicap mark. She has been allotted 52 as a rating, which might prove to be a very winnable figure. Her next intended race, at this stage, is a maiden handicap at Southwell in early February. It's for three year olds only, and is likely to feature a number of moderate plodders.

There's always the question of whether horses act around the idiosyncratic and uniquely challenging (in UK track terms, at least) Nottinghamshire course, but we'll be looking forward with high hopes.

Obvious, meanwhile, contested a weak race at Kempton last night. She'd had an upsetting previous trip to the racecourse - at Southwell, funnily enough - where nothing went right for her, and she ran accordingly.

So it was that last night, we wondered whether her mind would quite be on the game. Fitted with cheekpieces for the first time, she bounced out of the gate, as she tends to do, and held a prime spot in about third or fourth place. As they turned into the straight, Amir Quinn made his move and - briefly - Obvious put her pretty head in front. Alas, by the furlong pole, she was running on vapours and it is now clear to us that no further than seven furlongs is her trip.

She eventually finished eighth, beaten just five lengths, in a race where the slow pace would have also counted against her. This was definitely an improvement on her previous run and, whilst clearly no stakes runner, we remain hopeful of finding a little race for her.

As longer suffering readers will know, I also have a twelfth share in a hurdler called Night Orbit. He was ok on the flat, but really seems to have found his metier over obstacles. In fact, he might be a ready made candidate for the 2014 Grand National 😉 Ok, so that is probably as preposterous as it sounds, but he travels handy, stays all day, jumps well, and battles.

Last time out he was pitched in at the deep end, and ran a highly respectable fourth to Champion Hurdle favourite, Zaynar, albeit extremely flattered to finish within twenty lengths of that A-lister.

Anyway, on Monday, Olly (as he's affectionately known) will pop down to lovely Fontwell, and I will follow him, where he'll contest a Class 3 handicap hurdle. He's rated 130, having gone up six pounds for that run behind Zaynar, and our great hope is that he gets a run in the Pertemps Handicap Final at the Cheltenham Festival in March. A rating of 128 was enough to get in last year and, indeed the winner, Kayf Aramis, whose owner is I believe related to a Geegeez reader, won off 129.

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So, as long as we run OK on Monday, we'll be looking forward to a tilt at that Cleeve Hill windmill!

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Now then, if you'll permit me, I'd like to tell you about a couple of the other projects I've been working on in recent months. As some of you are already aware, I've added a sister site to Geegeez, primarily focused on the Irish racing scene, over at Horse-Racing.ie. As I say, although it's primarily about Irish racing, there's plenty there for fans of racing systems and fans of UK racing too.

For instance, this week alone, there are ongoing reviews of two betting systems: Profit Rocket and Fancy Fillies. Moreover, there's a revised look at the Champion Hurdle from a guest columnist (and I'm pleased to say that the findings are not dissimilar to my own preview back in early December here on Geegeez).

There's going to be a heck of a lot going on over in the that space in the coming months, so I'd encourage you to take a look if you haven't already, and maybe sign up to get the once weekly 'digest' updates from the site. Again, the link is http://horse-racing.ie

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Another thing I've been working on since September last year, and - to be honest - had pretty much given up on achieving, was a very cool joint venture partnership.

As you'll remember, in October last year, I launched (and almost immediately sold out) Horse Racing Experts, a website and manual and DVD combination that aimed to help subscribers become better at researching their own racing systems.

One of the key research tools I used to demonstrate racing systems research, and indeed the very tool I used for researching TrainerTrackStats, Laying System, and TrainerFlatStats (amongst others), was a fantastic bit of kit called Racing Systems Builder (or RSB for short). This software had been on the market for around fifteen years, so it was with staggeringly ironic timing that it's owners, Racedata Modelling, chose that very moment to withdraw RSB from sale.

You may or may not know that RSB was sold as two separate programs - one for the flat and one for National Hunt. And you may or may not know that each retailed for £349, meaning if you wanted both (and who wouldn't?!), it'd cost you a cup of tea shy of seven hundred quid!

Well, depending on whether there's sufficient interest or not, I've got agreement to offer you BOTH of these fantastic tools for around HALF the price of ONE of them (apologies for repeated capitalisation - I'm very excited about this!)

So, I've added a new poll top right of this page, and I'd be very grateful if you'd take two seconds to answer the single question there. Depending on the answers I receive, I'll record some videos showing you why this tool is so cool, and what it can do for you.

So please take a second to let me know if this interests you or not. No sweat if it doesn't, great if it does. Just let me know. The question is at the top right of this page. Thanks!

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Finally, its been a while since we've had a Thursday Fun, and I always like to dig into the British comedy archives for something long lost and once treasured. Today, it's the turn of 'Til Death Us Do Part'. This is one of those shows that has 'dated' over time, which is to say the BBC would never commission such a programme now, despite the main character being a fantastic caricatured insight into society at that time.

Step forward Mr Alf Garnett...

Matt

p.s. Please answer the question top right. It will take, literally, five seconds. (Thanks)

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22 replies
  1. Rog Kay says:

    Just had a good laugh with the Thursday fun. It might seem dated now but there is nothing in todays comedy that can come any where near the likes of Till death do us part, Steptoe and Rising damp lol.
    Rog.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      I make you right, Rog. “You silly moo” is a classic catch phrase as well!

  2. chris marsland says:

    wonderful scriptwriting—- superb acting—- where are todays winners ??

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Chris

      I’m guessing you considered the Thursday Fun off topic. If so, feel free to ignore. 😉

      Today’s winners…? They’re at Southwell (try Dubai Creek in the 2.50) and Gowran Park (Arbor Supreme each way in the 2.35)…

      Matt

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      You’re right Rod. I thought twice before posting, and then I thought ‘sod it’. There’s too much political correctness, and the world (or at least Britain) is far too sensitive for my tastes…
      Matt

  3. Rod says:

    Off subject I know Matt,but don’t get me going on “pc” and discrimination etc. I am all for positive profiling at the airports…well how many saga holiday makers or WI ladies have attempted to blow their planes to kingdom come? None that I can recall..so I wouldn’t be subjecting them to the full body xray.

  4. ron.goodall says:

    to matt
    bring back alf garnet the pc brigade should take their pc to another
    country iran syria sauda arabia comes to mind
    lets keep to the horses other wise i will blow a fuse
    all the best for week end
    ron

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Absolutely right, Dave (and everyone). Alf was all about ‘outing’ the idiots, and brilliant he was too. Glad you liked it!

      Matt 🙂

  5. Dave says:

    Good to see the original Dandy Nicholls! Alf may have been very politcally incorrect before political correctness was invented, but that was the whole point. This classic was very much about showing bigots up for what they are.

  6. TREVADO says:

    hello,
    is your offer for RSB going to come all the seasonal updates to add to it for the future.

  7. john cutts says:

    looking at the poll results so far i don’t think people are familiar enough with RSB.

    You can test yours and others systems on them, eg i bought 2 systems last year, Premium Favourites and the Winning Formula. I was able to check their claims and results on RSB thus a) giving me a chance to claim a refund if the claims were worn and b) if they were correct, giving me the confidence to back them.

    starting from 1 fundamental idea ( older lightly raced horses that can’t jump do well on the all weather ) and with nothing BUT the AW on recently i came up very quickly with the following system, all done on Racing Sytems Builder:

    1) must be f/c fav in Racing Post ( any price ) jts and co’s included
    2) top on RPR ( jt co inc )
    3) Aged 6 – 10 inclusive
    4 between 2 – 20 career runs on flat
    ran within last 15 days
    last run 4th or better
    5) run before last 9th or better
    6) no fillies only races
    7 in races of 12.5 furlongs or less

    The following stats are for the all weather only 1986 – 2004

    43% strike rate and a 15.61% return on investment . Not many bets it is true, so low turnover, but if you look for older horses in form that are forecast favs and top on RPR who have not been over raced you will dig up some decent priced winners and make a profit.

    Finally, ( sorry to go on but i think you must know the worth of this tool ), using RSB dispelled the myth that backing odds on favs is a mugs game. the ONLY odds range that makes any profit whatsoever over the above period is those horses forecast at 1/2 or less. You can find that and many other things from research on RSB – everything you think you know will be chalenged ! 🙂

    One suggestion to Matt, maybe take a leaf out of the Racing Post’s PDF operation and charge per session/hour/day etc for those who wish to hire rather than buy.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi John

      Good stuff! Yes, of course there are a lot of people unfamiliar and this is what I expected. Which is why I’ll be doing a few ‘how to’ videos which will hopefully showcase the capabilities of RSB over the next week or so.

      Thanks a lot for sharing your system idea,
      Matt

  8. Jason says:

    Matt, keep up the good work.

    I have chucked many a ha’penny down the drain with some marvellous(?) ‘give up your job in 2 weeks’ systems…

    Can’t quite remember how I stumbled across your website – think I was looking for a review on the latest ‘gazillionaire making’ system – but here we are.

    Anyway, I’ll cut to the chase… on a recent blog somebody was looking for a system with the ‘Hunters Chase’ season in mind.

    Can’t provide that, but what has proved quite profitable for me over the last few years has been backing favourites with a progressive staking plan – certain elements can be introduced to reduce risk… ie wait for 2 losers / cover to win / Stop at a Winner..

    Should anybody wish to operate a ‘Martingale’ approach then that’s their lookout.

    It’s done me alright, just thought I’d share my views…

    PS – happy with Favourites phenomen – sound advice (shame about my lack of discipline!!!)

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Jason

      Welcome aboard! Regarding hunter chases, I always remember when I was first getting into racing (about twenty-three years ago) that the favourites seemed to do pretty well. I’ll have a look and see what supporting evidence I can come up with…

      Matt

  9. Jason says:

    Sorry, me again… first timer so you will have to bear with me.

    My reference to backing ‘Favourites’ (which is pretty much my thing) is actually in relation to the ‘Hunters Chase’ races themselves…

    Definitely worth a paper trade… apologies for any confusion!?!

  10. Jon (Bristol) says:

    spot on with the thursday fun matt and 2 fingers up to the pc brigade

    Jon

  11. Chris says:

    Hi Matt,
    I bought RSB National Hunt years ago and still have it on one my computers, but it´s only up to 1999.
    It was very easy to use and I devised several “successful” systems all looking wonderful over 6 seasons.
    Unfortunately, when put into practice the results in a couple of cases actually showed a loss. The LSP on the others was much lower than indicated for the previous seasons.
    One in particular had shown an average LSP of 300 points for each of the previous 6 seasons. When I did it, the LSP was about 50 points for the season. Still a profit, but confirming the old adage that past results do not necessarily guarantee future success.
    Despite this I still retain (probably unrealistically) a faith that there must be a system that works.
    RSB is great and I have no hesitation in recommending it. At your price it´s a bargain…even with no seasonal updates.
    In my opinion the “secret” with RSB is the fewer variables used the better. After all, any fool can keep adding to the criteria to make a system look good.
    You probably know this, but there´s a similar, even more detailed programme available from http://www.proformracing.co.uk
    It can´t be purchased outright and costs about 12 pounds a week and is updated weekly. I´d be very interested to know what you think of it as I´m tempted to give it a go.

    All the best, Chris

  12. john cutts says:

    chris, you’re right, the system i worked out above ( in about 10 mins cos there was only all weather on ) is a good example of upping the percentage profitability by adding more and more filters – 9 if i had numbered em all !!

    Here’s one that will give you an average 5 -8 bets a day ( higher turnover which you so correctly alluded to above – i.e. 5% profit on 10 1 pt bets is much beterr than 10% on 3 ) but loses money at level stakes SP , – 3%. However, i calculate that using best odds guaranteed has given me an average win return of 20% higher than SP so this shoud easily make up for the – 3% loss ( bear in mind that backing ALL favs blind would lose you around 8% return on investment ).

    Ok, system. simple : 11/4 or less in Post betting f/c ( 1st 2nd 3rd , any position in forecast ) and top on RPR ( jt co qualify ). Where there atre 2 + qualifiers, leave race alone.

    Here’s the stats since 1986 – 200825786 bets, 10484 won ( 41% ) Return on investment – 3.09% AT SP. As i say, betfair, second show taking, or best of all best odds guaranteed, should easily overcome the small level stakes loss. I used a refined version of this with a couple of further filters which reduce the no. of bets by around a fifth – but thats my little secret for now 🙂

  13. john cutts says:

    oh, above applies to jumps and flat in UK only ( RSB doesn’t cover Ireland – gap in market there for the enterprising ! 🙂 )

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