Weekly Stat Pack, 16th to 22nd April 2013

Weekly Stat Pack: 16th to 22nd April

Weekly Stat Pack: 16th to 22nd April

Weekly Stat Pack 

We reach fever pitch (from my viewpoint) relating to flat racing this week with Newmarket staging their first two meetings of the season, coupled together with the Cheltenham (NH) fixtures, notwithstanding Newbury’s fayre later in the week and the Scottish Grand National meeting at Ayr.  Bring it on! 

TUESDAY:

Exeter:

EXETER DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Exeter: 34

Favourite stats: 11 (32.3% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 5/9 (55.5%)

Leading trainers of winners at Exeter in 2013:

4--David Pipe (4/1-4/5*-1/4*-6/1)

4--Colin Tizzard (7/2-7/2-2/1--11/4)

3--Susan Gardner (9/4-11/2-5/6*)

3--Paul Nicholls (5/6*-4/9*-6/5)

2--Martin Hill (18/1 & 9/1)

2--Jeremy Scott (5/4 & 16/1)

2--Oliver Sherwood (11/4* & 2/1)

26/34 winners were returned at odds of 15/2 or less.

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

4--Philip Hobbs (3/1-11/8-6/4-4/5)

2--Paul Nicholls (7/5 & 6/4)

2--Fergal O'Brien (1/2 & 4/5)

2--Jamie Snowdon (4/1 & 7/2)

2--Venetia Williams (Evs & 3/1)

 

2.00: Five-year-olds have won three of the four renewals thus far, whilst favourites have secured two gold and two silver medals to date.

3.00: Three of the six favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winner), whilst nine-year-olds have won three of the six contests.

4.10: Seven of the nine favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last eleven years during which time, five market leaders have prevailed.

5.20 & 5.50 (two divisions):  Five-year-olds (coming into the race on a six timer) lead the four-year-olds 7/3 via ten contests.  Five of the last eight renewals have been won by market leaders during which time, seven gold medallists scored at odds of 9/2 or less.

 

Kempton (NH):

KEMPTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Kempton: 35

Favourite stats: 8 (22.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/8 (37.5)

Leading trainers of winners at Kempton in 2013:

9--N. Henderson (5/1-3/10*-3/1*-13/2-13/2-6/1-9/2-10/3-4/5*)

4--Alan King (4/5*-5/1-5/1-13/2)

4--Paul Nicholls (7/1-5/4*-9/4-11/8)

2--Harry Fry (12/1 twice)

2--Tom George (7/2 & 9/2)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (5/2** & 9/1)

30/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

6--Paul Nicholls (9/2-5/4-2/1-7/4**-10/11-3/1)

5--Nicky Henderson (5/2**-11/8-8/11-10/11-7/4)

2--Philip Hobbs (11/4 & 7/4)

2--Alan King (4/1 & 11/10)

2--Donald McCain (5/4 & 9/4)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (5/6 & 3/1) 

 

Southwell:

I noticed the other day that Graham Lee was odds on to ride at least 100 winners this season which is great testimony to his skills in the saddle, especially as Graham made the transition between codes just twelve months ago.  Graham boasts a 22% strike rate at the venue via thirteen winners during the period, offering ‘black type’ from a level stake profit perspective.

 

WEDNESDAY: 

Beverley: 

3.10 & 3.45 (two divisions): Favourites have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst eight of the ten winners have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less.  Richard Fahey (saddled Blades Boy in the 3.45) has won three of the last seven contests and comes to the gig on a hat trick this time around.

4.20: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 3-2 via the last five renewals.  Three of the seven favourites (via six renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include one (4/1) winner.  David Nicholls saddles Mister Manannan having won two of the six contests with 20/1 and 6/1 gold medallists.

 

Newmarket:

1.45: Barry Hills had saddled four of the last seven winners before his son Charlie took over the license last year.  Charlie saddles Estifzaaz this time around.  Three favourites have won via the last eight contests.

2.20: Nine favourites have prevailed during the last fifteen years, whilst twelve market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions. Thirteen of the last fifteen gold medallists were returned at odds of 5/1 or less, the other winners having both scored at 10/1.  Favourites come to this year’s gig on a six timer, whilst this race has proved to be a positive pointer towards Royal Ascot in the last six years.  The 2009 winner (Art Connoisseur) went to win the Coventry Stakes whilst Gilded followed up by landing the ’Queen Mary’ having won this contest four years ago. Sandwiched in between was Spirit Of Sharjah who finished third in the Norfolk Stakes before running second in the ’Flying Childers’ later in the season.  The 2011 winner Jack Who’s He was ‘only’ beaten six and a quarter lengths in the ’Coventry’ when sent off a no hoper at odds of 50/1.

3.30: Richard Hannon grabs the headlines here, as the trainer has snared three gold, four silver and two bronze medals during the last fifteen years.  Richard saddles Emell and Alhebayeb this time around. Three of the last seven favourites have prevailed, whilst nine of the last fifteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions (four winners).  All fifteen winners during the study period were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

4.10: Five favourites have won this trial for the 1,000 Guineas in recent times, whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the fifteen year study period.  The last three winners have scored at 28/1-14/1-6/1 hailing from the respective top yards of Richard Hannon, Richard Fahey and Mick Channon.

4.40: Seven of the seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the last fourteen years, statistics which include three winners.  Mark Johnston saddles Alta Lelia this time around, having saddled four of the last nine winners.

5.15: John Gosden has declared his Galileo colt Space Ship who will be John’s sixth runner in the race, the trainer having saddled 20/1 and 7/1 winners in the contest thus far.  We still await the first successful market leaders following five renewals.

5.45: Nine renewals have slipped by since a horse carried 9-7 to victory in the finale.

 

Cheltenham:

CHELTENHAM NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Cheltenham: 35

Favourite stats: 13 (37.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/6

Leading trainers of winners at Cheltenham in 2013:

6--Nicky Henderson (5/2-1/5*-1/4*-16/1-8/15*-11/4*)

5--Willie Mullins (25/1-9/4*-8/11*-13/8*-5/1)

2--Rebecca Curtis (7/1 & 11/8*)

2--Tony Martin (20/1 & 10/1)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (11/4* & 25/1)

2--Colin Tizzard (28/1 & 7/2)

2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (16/1 & 7/2)

2--Venetia Williams (4/1* & 50/1)

23/35 winners have been returned at odds of 10/1 or less 

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

4--P. Nicholls (10/11-4/1-6/1**-5/2)

4--David Pipe (5/2-7/2-11/8-9/4)

3--Nicky Henderson (9/4-15/8-5/2)

2--John Ferguson (8/1** & 6/1**)

2--Donald McCain (13/2 & 11/2)

 

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Six of the last ten renewals have been secured by the favourite whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 7/1.  Paul Nicholls has saddled three winners during the study period, whilst six year-olds have secured six of the last eight contests, coming to this year’s gig on a five timer.

Three and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.45: Five of the six favourites have finished out of the frame (via five renewals), albeit the other market leader won the respective event at 2/1.  Ten of the fifteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions carried a minimum weight of 11-3, including the last four winners at 12/1-15/2-15/2-2/1.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.20: Philip Hobbs has saddled three of the last four winners and the trainer held two options for this year’s renewal at the time of writing.

Grade 2 Silver Trophy Chase scheduled for 3.55: Favourites have won five contests during the last eleven years, with Paul Nicholls (four entries this time around) having saddled four gold medallists during the period.  Eight-year-olds come to this year’s gig on a five timer.

Three mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.20: Nine of the last ten winners have carried weights of 10-10 or more, whilst favourites have secured four of the last eight contests.  Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last eight winners, with six, seven and eight-year-olds having won every contest during the last decade..  Nine winners during the last eleven years have won at odds of 9/1 or less.

Class 2 novice chase scheduled for 4.55: Although ‘only’ four favourites have won during the last eleven years (market leaders come to the party on a four timer this time around), the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at just 6/1.  Seven-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals and with four of the eleven penultimate entries hailing from the vintage, seven-year-olds were 7/4 to extend the run before form was taken into consideration.

 

Kempton:

Michael (JM) Murphy is a jockey who has sneaked under the radar to good effect at Kempton of late, having ridden nine winners via a 23% strike rate whilst amassing an LSP reading of seven points.

 

THURSDAY: 

Newmarket:

Juvenile event scheduled for 1.45: Five favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst ten market leaders snared toteplacepot positions during the period.  The biggest priced winner during the last decade was an 11/1 chance (2011).  Richard Hannon (three options this time around) has saddled three winners during the last decade, statistics which include two of the last three gold medallists.

‘Wood Ditton’ scheduled for 2.20: Ten of the eighteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (six winners) during the fifteen year study period.

‘Tattersalls Millions’ event scheduled for 2.55: All four favourites have finished out with the washing behind winners returned at 25/1 & 10/1 (Richard Hannon), 9/1 (Michael Bell) and 8/1 (John Gosden).

Listed ‘Abernant Stakes’ scheduled for 3.30: Four-year-olds have won six renewals during the last fifteen years, whilst claiming seventeen of the forty four available toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Three market leaders have prevailed (within the last nine years), whilst seven of the sixteen favourites have reached the frame during the study period.

Group 3 ‘Craven Stakes’ due to be contested at 4.05: Nine of the sixteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions (six winners) during the study period.  Favourites have won four of the last six renewals, the other recent winners having scored at 9/4 & 9/2).  Richard Hannon was responsible for five of the fourteen penultimate stage declarations, the trainer having secured three of the last five available toteplacepot positions.  Richard saddled last year’s 9/2 winner whilst securing the 20/1 forecast dividend.

‘Earl of Sefton’ event scheduled for 4.45: Four-year-olds have claimed nine of the last fifteen renewals whilst securing over half (22/38) of the available toteplacepot positions.  Eleven of the seventeen market leaders have reached the frame (three winners) during the study period.

Three-year-old maiden event for fillies scheduled for 5.20: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last nine winners and with Ryan Moore already booked to ride Call Ahead (one of two options for the trainer this time around), the Three Valleys filly will be on my short list, albeit she lacks big race entries at this moment in time.  Nine winners during the last eleven years have been returned at odds of 15/2 or less, statistics which include three successful favourites.  

Eight renewals had slipped by since a favourite prevailed until last year’s successful 2/1 market leader obliged in the closing one and a quarter mile handicap contest which is scheduled for 5.45.  Mark Johnston has secured two of the last four contests with the trainer holding just the one option on this occasion.  The horse in question is Mark’s Galileo filly Alta Lilea who was also entered in a race on Wednesday’s card at the venue.  An Epsom Derby entry at the time of writing, the beaten favourite scored at the first time of asking last year under good to soft conditions.

 

Ripon:

Eleven favourites obliged via the first twenty eight races at Ripon last season (first four meetings) which equates to a strike rate of 39.3% (well above average), with twenty one winners scoring at odds of 9/1 or less.

Sir Henry Cecil (10/1-3/1**-Evs*) and Richard Fahey (11/2-7/2**-10/3) led the way with three winners, with two apiece for Mark Johnston (5/2* & 8/11*), Tim Easterby (14/1 & 13/2), Bill Turner (14/1 & 9/2*) and Elaine Burke (50/1 & 5/4*).  These six trainers accounted for half the winners at Ripon during the study period.

 

Cheltenham:

CHELTENHAM NH DETAILS FOR 2013 

Number of races at Cheltenham: 35

Favourite stats: 13 (37.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/6

Leading trainers of winners at Cheltenham in 2013:

6--Nicky Henderson (5/2-1/5*-1/4*-16/1-8/15*-11/4*)

5--Willie Mullins (25/1-9/4*-8/11*-13/8*-5/1)

2--Rebecca Curtis (7/1 & 11/8*)

2--Tony Martin (20/1 & 10/1)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (11/4* & 25/1)

2--Colin Tizzard (28/1 & 7/2)

2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (16/1 & 7/2)

2--Venetia Williams (4/1* & 50/1)

23/35 winners have been returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

4--P. Nicholls (10/11-4/1-6/1**-5/2)

4--David Pipe (5/2-7/2-11/8-9/4)

3--Nicky Henderson (9/4-15/8-5/2)

2--John Ferguson (8/1** & 6/1**)

2--Donald McCain (13/2 & 11/2)

Two mile five furlong handicap chase for novices scheduled for 2.35: The last four winners have scored at 33/1-14/1-10/1-6/1 whilst three other winners during the last eleven years were returned at odds ranging between 10/1 and 12/1.  Eight of the fifteen market leaders have secured win and place positions during the study period, stats which include three successful favourites.  Five of the last seven winners have carried 11-3 or more.

Listed handicap hurdle event over two miles & five furlongs scheduled for 3.10: Nicky Henderson comes to the party on a hat trick with two options at the time of writing.  One on favourite has obliged in the last six years though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was a 17/2 chance.  Five and six-year-olds have (equally) secured eight of the last ten renewals.

Twenty five furlong handicap chase event due to be contested at 3.45: Three favourites (5/1-9/2-9/2) have won during the last decade during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 17/2 which is a phenomenal stat relating to long distance handicap chases.  Nine-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-4 during the study period, whilst both Philip Hobbs and Paul Nicholls have secured a brace of winners apiece of late.  Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-12. 

Three mile Class 2 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.20: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals whilst the only successful (two) favourites during the period emerged in the last three years.  That said, nine-year olds have won three of the last five contests.  Only three of the twelve favourites secured toteplacepot positions.  Paul Nicholls (three options at the time of writing) was saddling his third winner in the last eight years twelve months ago.

Conditional jockeys’ event scheduled for 4.55: Three of the seven favourites (via five renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions, stats which include one successful (3/1) joint market leader.  Cruchain (Dai Burchell) comes to the gig on a hat trick, having been the only horse to complete the course twelve months ago.

Four and five-year-olds have shared the last ten renewals of the mares bumper event, scheduled for 5.25.  Nicky Henderson has secured four of the last eight contests.

 

Wolverhampton:

Gerard Butler had just two horses entered for races this week at the time of writing, one of which was here at Wolverhampton where course and distance winner (from his only start to date) Welsh Sunrise was due to contest the 8.25 event.  Gerard boasts a 24% strike rate (via twenty one winners) at the venue, stats which are backed up by an LSP reading of fifty points.

 

FRIDAY: 

Newbury:

3YO maiden fillies event scheduled for 2.00: Six of the last nine market leaders have won whilst eleven of the fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years.  Last year’s debut winner Sentaril went on to score next time up at Doncaster before securing the silver medal in Royal Ascot’s Jersey Stakes.

3YO conditions event scheduled for 2.30: Four favourites have prevailed which is not a bad record at all, though ten of the other eleven market leaders missed out on toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Seven furlong 3YO handicap event scheduled for 3.05: Two of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (no winners), though we still await the first successful market leader following six renewals.  The only potential John Gosden runner in the final line-up is his Lingfield winner Bright Strike, the trainer having won this race in two of the last three years, john not having been represented on the other occasion.

Juvenile event for fillies scheduled for 3.40: Eight of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

Two mile event scheduled for 4.15: Five years have slipped by since favourites won successive renewals of this marathon even, the most recent winners having scored at 25/1-25/1-25/1-16/1-13/2.

Ten furlong 3YO maiden fillies event scheduled for 4.45: Ten of the last twelve favourites have been beaten, though ten of those market leaders at least managed to reach the frame.  Woodland Aria was John Gosden’s only potential runner via the penultimate thirty one declarations earlier in the week, John having won two of the last five renewals whilst saddling a 16/1 runner up in one of the two divisions of this contest twelve months ago.  The Singspiel filly is one to keep an eye on from what I have heard in recent weeks, win lose or draw this time around.

 

Bath:

26/29 races at Bath (via the first four meetings of the season) were won by horses returned at odds of 9/1 or less.  Favourites won eight races (27.6%), with Richard Hannon leading the trainer figures with three gold medallists which scored at 5/1-2/1*-11/10*.  Clive Cox saddled the first two winners at Bath last year at 7/2 and 30/100, though these were Clive’s only winners at the track up to and including their 8th June fixture.  Other trainers on the two winner mark were Mick Channon (11/2 & 9/4*), Tony Carroll (8/1 & 7/1) and Mark Brisbourne (14/1 & 8/1).

 

Ayr:

AYR NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ayr: 49

Favourite stats: 24 (49.0% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 8/12 (66.7%)

Leading trainers of winners at Ayr in 2013:

10--Donald McCain (5/4*-Evs*-8/15*-5/4*-9/4**-8/13*-2/9*-5/1**-7/2-8/11*)

9--Lucinda Russell (7/2-5/6*-4/9*-5/4*-7/2-11/8**-2/1*-5/1-10/3*)

5--Jim Goldie (12/1-6/1-10/1-6/1-13/8*)

4--J.J. Lambe (16/1-4/1-8/1-9/4*)

3--Nick Alexander (11/4-5/1-7/1)

44/49 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

5--Donald McCain (11/8**-13/8-9/4**-11/10-11/10)

4--David Pipe (4/6-8/11-11/8-6/5)

2--Nick Alexander (9/4** & 10/3)

2--Lucinda Russell (5/1** & 11/8)

 

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.10: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last five contests, with Jim Goldie (28/1 & 11/2) and Nicky Richards (16/1 twice) both having saddled two of the last four winners.  Both trainers held options at the five day stage.

Three mile handicap hurdle for mares event scheduled for 3.50: Six-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer having scored at 28/1-3/1**-13/8* in a race which only had four renewals to peruse.

Four favourites have obliged via eight renewals of a three mile handicap hurdle which is due to be contested at 4.25.

 

Fontwell: 

FONTWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Fontwell: 29

Favourite stats: 14 (48.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 7/9 (77.8%)

Leading trainers of winners at Fontwell in 2013:

2--Charlie Longsdon (5/2 & 4/6*)

2--Paul Nicholls (3/1 & 7/4*)

2--David Pipe (7/4 & 4/7*)

2--Evan Williams (10/1 & 1/2*)

2--Venetia Williams (1/5* & 10/11*) 

27/29 winners to date started at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

3--Charlie Longsdon (11/8-13/8-7/2)

2--Kevin Bishop (9/2** & 13/8)

2--Paul Nicholls (5/6 & 7/4)

 

Southwell (NH):

SOUTHWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Southwell: 28

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Favourite stats: 12 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/4 (50/0%)

Leading trainers of winners at Southwell in 2013:

3--Keith Reveley (3/1-11/8*-14/1)

2--Sean Curran (5/6* & 16/1)

2--Warren Greatrex (7/2 & 9/4*)

2--Charlie Longsdon (3/1 & 9/2)

24/28 winners to date were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

2--Tony Carroll (4/1 & 5/1**)

2--Warren Greatrex (6/5 & 13/8)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (15/8 & 9/4)

 

SATURDAY: 

Newbury: 

‘John Porter’ event scheduled for 1.50: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests.  Three favourites have won during the last eight years during which time, seven gold medallists were returned at a top price of 13/2.

Newbury Spring Cup scheduled for 2.20: Four-year-olds have won ten renewals during the last fifteen years whilst claiming thirty of the sixty available toteplacepot positions in the process!  Six of the seventeen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via fourteen renewals in the last fifteen years, statistics which include one (9/2 joint favourite) winner.

(draw details--eight furlongs)

7-21-8-11 (22 ran-soft)

10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)

12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)

20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)
11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)
11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)
13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)
22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)
26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)
14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)
20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)
6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)
14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)
1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)

‘Fred Darling’ scheduled for 2.55: Mick Channon has saddled four winners during the last eleven years, though Mick is without an entry this year (stat retained for those of you who keep records).  My attention is turned to Ralph Beckett accordingly, the trainer have declared Waterway Run on this occasion, Ralph having won three of the last eight renewals.  The Arch filly was beaten just four lengths in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile last year having won the ‘Oh So Sharp’ at Newmarket in pleasing style on her previous start.

‘Greenham Stakes’ scheduled for 3.30: Richard Hannon has saddled four winners during the last eleven years with Richard potentially being represented by Olympic Glory (Richard Hughes already ’jocked up’) and Havana Gold this time around.

 

Nottingham:

NOTTINGHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Nottingham: 7

Favourite stats: 2 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/1

Trainers of winners at Nottingham in 2013:

1/1--Mrs K. Burke (9/4)

1/1--Robert Cowell (6/5*)

1/1--Tim Pitt (14/1)

1/2--Mel Brittain (40/1)

1/2--Ed Dunlop (6/4*)

1/3--Ralph Beckett (11/1)

1/4--Richard Fahey (14/1)

4/7 winners were returned at odds of 11/1 or more

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Andrew Balding (7/2 & 7/4)

1--Michael Bell (7/4)

1--Luca Cumani (11/10)

1--Ed Dunlop (5/6)

Five furlong fillies handicap scheduled for 6.30: Only one favourite has obliged via the eight contests during the last decade, albeit six golf medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.  Six winners carried 8-13 or more to victory.

Three-year-old handicap scheduled for 7.00: The last eleven winners all carried weights of 8-13 or more to victory.

Class 6 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 8.00: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last six contests during which time, five winners scored at a top price of 6/1 (favourite).

 

Thirsk: 

Class 5 six furlong maiden event scheduled for 2.50: Only one successful favourite to report via the last nine renewals.  Three-year-olds have won every contest during the last decade.

Class 3 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 3.25: Winners at 181/-14/1-12/1-12/1-17/2 have accompanied the only successful favourite in this contest to date via just the six renewals.  Four-year-olds have won three contests, whilst five winners were burdened with a minimum weight of nine stones.

Seven furlongs conditions event scheduled for 5.10: We still await the first winning favourite following six renewals of the race, albeit the top priced winner to date was a 6/1 chance.  Richard Fahey and David Nicholls (both with entries at the time of writing) have saddled a brace of winners thus far.

 

Ayr:

AYR NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ayr: 49

Favourite stats: 24 (49.0% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 8/12 (66.7%)

Leading trainers of winners at Ayr in 2013:

10--Donald McCain (5/4*-Evs*-8/15*-5/4*-9/4**-8/13*-2/9*-5/1**-7/2-8/11*)

9--Lucinda Russell (7/2-5/6*-4/9*-5/4*-7/2-11/8**-2/1*-5/1-10/3*)

5--Jim Goldie (12/1-6/1-10/1-6/1-13/8*)

4--J.J. Lambe (16/1-4/1-8/1-9/4*)

3--Nick Alexander (11/4-5/1-7/1)

44/49 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

5--Donald McCain (11/8**-13/8-9/4**-11/10-11/10)

4--David Pipe (4/6-8/11-11/8-6/5)

2--Nick Alexander (9/4** & 10/3)

2--Lucinda Russell (5/1** & 11/8)

 

‘Future Champion Novice chase’ scheduled for 2.05: The biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned last year at 8/1, whilst four favourites scored during the period.  Paul Nicholls has saddled winners at 7/2-3/1-11/4-9/4 during the study period.  Paul held two options at the five day stage.

Scottish Champion Hurdle scheduled for 2.40: The previous ten winners had carried weights of 10-13 or less before an Alan King representative won last year despite being burdened with 11-6.   Six-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst nine winners during the last decade scored at odds of 17/2 or less, statistics which include two clear market leaders and one joint favourite.

Scottish Grand National scheduled for 3.50: Only four of the fourteen favourites during the last eleven years finished in the frame (no winners).  Horses aged eight or more have won seventeen of the last eighteen renewals.  Eight-year-olds have won seven of the relevant contests.  Tony McCoy has not ridden the winner of the Scottish National since 1997, his one and only success in the contest to date.

Novice handicap chase scheduled for 5.00: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last nine contests, whilst successful market leaders during the last decade are only conspicuous by their absence.

 

Bangor:

BANGOR NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Bangor: 14

Favourite stats: 7 (50.0% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/3 (66.7%)

Leading trainers of winners at Bangor in 2013:

2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (15/2 & 11/4**)

13/14 winners were returned at odds of 15/2 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

3--Donald McCain (11/10-5/6-2/1)

 

Wolverhampton:

George Baker held a couple of entries on this card earlier in the week, the trainer boasting a healthy strike rate of 22% via forty winners at Dunstall Park, statistics which are backed up by an LSP reading of twenty six points. 

 

SUNDAY: 

Stratford:  

STRATFORD DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Stratford: 8

Favourite stats: 2 (25.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/1

Trainers of winners at Stratford in 2013:

1--David Arbuthnot (10/1)

1--Sean Curran (8/1)

1--Susan Gardner (50/1)

1--John Jenkins (5/2)

1--Emma Lavelle (11/4*)

1--Richard Lee (8/1)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (11/4*)

1--Venetia Williams (9/2)

7/8 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Emma Baker (4/1**)

1--Ben Case (7/2)

1--Alexandra Dunn (15/8)

1--Charlie Egerton (6/4)

1--David Pipe (11/8)

1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/1**)

1--Evan Williams (10/11)

 

Wincanton: 

WINCANTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Wincanton: 61

Favourite stats: 19 (31.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 6/10 (60.0%)

Leading trainers of winners at Wincanton in 2013:

9--Paul Nicholls (6/1-1/3*-17/2-3/1-Evs*-2/1-8/13*-Evs*-3/1)

5--Jeremy Scott (25/1-11/8*-7/1-7/1-5/1)

4--Tom George (6/1-11/5*-2/1*-3/1)

4--Colin Tizzard (4/1-11/4**-9/1-10/1)

3--Harry Fry (3/1-16/1-5/4*)

3--David Pipe (5/6*-10/1-4/1**)

54/61 winners started at 10/1 or less 

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

9--Paul Nicholls (5/2-5/6-3/1-7/2-11/8-9/4-4/9-11/8-Evs)

6--David Pipe (7/2-7/2**-13/8-6/5-11/4**-9/4)

4--Philip Hobbs (Evs-11/10-7/4-3/1**)

4--Colin Tizzard (5/2**-7/2**-7/2-4/1)

3--Nicky Henderson (6/5-5/4-2/5)

 

MONDAY: 

Windsor: 

WINDSOR DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Windsor: 7

Favourite stats: 2 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

Trainers of winners at Windsor in 2013:

2/4--Richard Hannon (6/1 & Evs*)

1/1--David Elsworth (4/1)

1/1--Dean Ivory (9/2)

1/1--Stuart Kittow (7/2*)

1/2--Neil King (11/1)

1/2--Hughie Morrison (14/1)

6/7 winners were returned at odds of 11/1 or less

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Henry Candy (3/1)

1--David Lanigan (11/8)

1--Hughie Morrison (6/4)

1--P.J. O'Gorman (7/2)

1--David Simcock (11/4)

 

Pontefract: 

PONTEFRACT DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Pontefract: 7

Favourite stats: 4 (57.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

Trainers of winners at Pontefract in 2013:

2/5--Richard Fahey (11/4 & 9/2*)

1/2--David Barron (13/8*)

1/2--John Quinn (5/2*)

1/3--Brian Ellison (9/2)

1/3--Edwin Tuer (14/1)

1/4--Mrs K. Burke (15/8*)

6/7 winners were returned at odds of 9/2 or less 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Richard Fahey (11/4)

1--Mark Johnston (7/4)

1--Alan Swinbank (7/2)

 

Hexham: 

HEXHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Hexham: 7

Favourite stats: 4 (57.1% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/2 

Trainers of winners at Hexham in 2013:

2--Lucinda Russell (5/2* & 15/8)

1--Simon Crawford (11/10*)

1--Andrew Crook (18/1)

1--Brian Ellsion (4/9*)

1--Richard Ford (1/2*)

1--Ferdy Murphy (5/1)

Six of the seven winners were returned at odds of 5/1 or less

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Noel C. Kelly (11/2)

1--Sue Smith (9/2)

1--Tim Vaughan (7/4)

 

Kempton: 

For later in the season I guess, it’s as well to make a note of Saeed Bin Suroor’s great ratio at Kempton which stands at 33% via sixty five winners at Kempton during the last five years.  Add thirty six points of level stake profits into the mix and you have figures to keep you smiling as the season progresses.

 

Wolverhampton: 

I note that Ryan Moore has booted home a few winners for Clive Brittain of late and this bandwagon is worth following in general terms.  Clive boasts a 21% record with his raiders here at Dunstall Park (five year study period) offering a positive LSP reading for good measure.

 

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