Weekly Stat Pack

Weekly Stat Pack: 27th August to 2nd September

27th August to 2nd September

Weekly Stat Pack: 27th Aug to 2nd Sept

With only two full months of the flat season left, it’s time we concentrated on which trainers tend the finish the year off well, whilst homing in on handlers who are going well at any given time.

In August we witnessed truly magnificent sequences of form from the likes of James Fanshawe, James Tate, William Haggas and David O’Meara among others.  On the NH front, Neil Mullholland was finishing the month to good effect.

I cannot pretend that the September figures are as strong as earlier months in the year, mainly because trainers up and down the land are doing their utmost to attract more interest from potential owners with the ‘kipper’ season fast approaching.

I offer the list from a percentage perspective from last year’s relevant results though as is seemingly always the case, you have to admire how Richard Hannon sends out so many winners every month whilst maintaining a ratio which is superior to most.

The New Year Honours List should reward Richard with a knighthood for his endeavours relating to our favourite sport in my considered opinion.

24%--Tom Dascombe (15/62)
24%--Jeremy Noseda (13/55)
23%--Ed McMahon (5/22)
22%--Stuart Williams (6/27)
21%--John Gosden (14/66)
19%--Sir Mark Prescott (9/48)
19%--Henry Candy (7/36)
18%--Richard Hannon (37/209)
18%--Saeed Bin Suroor (15/85)
17%--Mark Johnston (33/189)
17%--Sir Michael Stoute (10/60)
16%--Brian Ellison (9/58)
16%--Clive Brittain (5/31--145 points of level stake profit!)
15%--Andrew Balding (13/88)
15%--Amanda Perrett (8/55)

*Sir Henry Cecil achieved a 24% ratio (10/41) in September last year and it remains to be seen if Lady Cecil can follow Henry’s lead, though ‘er indoors has not done too badly thus far!

Day to day analysis:

TUESDAY 27/08:

Epsom:

EPSOM DETAILS FOR 2013:
    
Number of races at Epsom: 57
Favourite stats: 15 (26.3% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 4/8 (50.0%)

Leading trainers at Epsom in 2013:
5/21--Richard Hannon (3/1**-13/8-13/8*-11/8*-2/9*)
4/8--David Simcock (12/1-7/4*-5/1-3/1)
3/13--Richard Fahey (10/1-25/1-9/2)
3/19--Mark Johnston (3/1-7/4-7/2)
3/21--Andrew Balding (3/1*-11/4-7/2)

52/57 (91.2%) of the winners have scored at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
6--Richard Hannon (3/1**-5/4-11/4-6/5-15/8-5/6)
3--Mark Johnston (6/5-1/2-5/2)

2.15: A Richard Hannon representative was beaten two necks in the inaugural contest in 2009, though the trainer subsequently made amends by winning the next two renewals.  Richard saddles A Childs dream on this occasion. The only favourite to finish in the frame via four renewals to date was the 2010 winner.

2.50: Richard Fahey saddles his first horse in the race since landing back to back victories in 2010/11 and it is Richard’s 2011 winner Baldemar that makes the long journey south this time around.  Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame (no winners).

3.25: Mark Johnston has won with two of the last three horses he has saddled in this event whereby Mark’s Cape Cross filly Opera Fan is the first name on the team sheet.  Favourites have won five of the eight renewals to date and with the other three market leaders having finished second in their respective events, this is one of the best juvenile races on the calendar in terms of the record of ‘jollies’.  The other three winners scored at 7/2, 11/4 and 9/1.

3.55: Six of the seven winners carried a maximum weight of nine stones, whilst six of the favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via the last eight renewals, statistics which include three (9/2-9/2-2/1) successful market leaders.

4.30: Five of the last nine available toteplacepot positions have been secured by three-year-olds during which time, junior raiders have won two of the relevant three contests at odds of 9/2 & 11/4 (favourite).  Mark Johnston (The Bells Of Peover) has only been involved in two of the four renewals, securing gold and bronze medals in the process.
Ripon:

RIPON DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Ripon: 94
Favourite stats: 31 (33.0%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 3/10 (30.0%)

Leading trainers of winners at Ripon in 2013 (includes one dead-heat):
11/49--Richard Fahey (13/8-9/4*-5/4*-5/2-5/2-3/1*-2/5*-9/2*-1/20*-3/1-Evs*)
10/47--David O'Meara (6/4*-4/1**-5/1-9/4*-9/2-9/4-3/1-8/1-14/1-9/4**)
7/23--David Barron (2/1*-16/1-5/2-7/2-11/8*-7/1-7/2)
5/42--Mark Johnston (17/2-9/4-7/4*-11/4-15/8*)
4/17--Michael Dods (6/1-4/1-4/1-10/1)
4/32--Kevin Ryan (5/2-15/8*-16/1-6/4*)

89/95 winners (93.7%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
7--David O'Meara (7/2-7/2**-5/2**-7/2**-2/1-7/2**-5/2**)
5--Richard Fahey (5/2-4/1**-15/8-5/2**-4/5)
4--William Haggas (11/8-11/8-2/1-5/2)
4--Mark Johnston (11/4-11/8-11/10-10/11)
3--David Barron (9/4-8/11-6/4)
3--Tim Easterby (15/8**-11/4*-11/4)
3--Kevin Ryan (5/4-6/1-2/1)

2.00: Unusually for races confined to three and four-year-olds, the older horses had dominated this race until the last two victories by junior raiders brought a halt to five consecutive victories for the four-year-olds.  Favourites have won four of the seven renewals thus far, with a top priced winner of 8/1 emerging during the period.

3.05: Favourites come to the gig on a four timer though market leaders have ‘only’ secured four victories during the last eleven years.  Seven of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

3.40: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 7/1 or less, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

4.15: Four-year-olds have secured four of the last six renewals, facts which you might want to store for next year as there are no vintage representatives this time around!

5.15 & 5.50 (two divisions): Four-year-olds have secured five of the last six contests.

 

Southwell:

All weather racing at Southwell is back with a vengeance this week from here on in until the end of the year I guess.  Mark Johnston is represented already, with Mark boasting a fine 25% strike rate at the track during the last five years which is a tremendous return, given the number of runners he sends to the racecourse.  Other trainers with potential runners to note include James Tate (39% via stats of 12/31) and Jo Hughes (26% via figures of 19/73).
Sedgefield:

SEDGEFIELD NH DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Sedgefield: 56
Favourite stats: 21 (37.5%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 3/6 (40.0%)

Trainers of winners at Sedgefield in 2013:
11--Donald McCain (4/6*-6/5*-5/4*-3/1-8/1-6/5*-10/11*-1/5*-Evs*-7/4*-3/1)
3--Joanne Foster (3/1-7/2*-4/1)
3--Steve Gollings (9/2-11/8*-9/4**)
3--Diane Sayer (8/1-4/1**-4/1)
3--Sue Smith (7/1-7/4*-11/2)
3--John Wade (2/1*-4/1-4/1)

53/56 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of beaten favourites:
6--Phil Kirby (5/2-11/10-11/4-5/4-3/1**-11/4)
4--Donald McCain (5/4-5/2-15/8-11/4)
3--Brian Ellison (6/4-10/11-9/4)
WEDNESDAY 28/08:

Carlisle:

CARLISLE (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Carlisle: 54
Favourite stats: 18 (33.3%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 1/4

Leading trainers at Carlisle (flat) in 2013 (includes one dead heat scenario):
5/29--Tim Easterby (7/2-16/1-25/1-6/1-15/8*)
4/8--Ann Duffield (5/1-4/1-15/2-9/2)
4/25--Keith Dalgleish (3/1-9/2-12/1-9/4*)
3/5--Declan Carroll (5/2*-11/2-5/2*)
3/15--Mark Johnston (7/1-7/2-3/1**)
3/20--Brian Ellison (7/2*-2/1*-6/4*)

48/55 winners (85.7%) to date have scored at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
5--Richard Fahey (Evs-9/4-9/4-5/2-3/1)
4--David O'Meara (6/4-9/4-6/4-3/1**)
3--Michael Easterby (7/2**-9/4-5/4)
3--Brian Ellison (11/2-7/2-7/2)
3--Kevin Ryan (8/13-10/11-3/1)
Catterick:

CATTERICK DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Catterick: 82
Favourite stats: 21 (25.9%--includes joint and co favourites + 1 Non Runner)
Odds on ratio: 5/9 (55.5%)

Leading trainers at Catterick in 2013:
7/36--David O'Meara (5/2*-17/2-2/1*-11/4-4/7*-3/1*-11/4)
5/18--Mark Johnston (2/7*-3/1-7/4*-4/1-10/11*)
5/41--Tim Easterby (10/1-3/1*-5/2-7/2-9/4)
5/23--Ruth Carr (4/1-7/4*-13/2-7/4-22/1)
4/24--Tracy Waggott (9/2*-6/1-7/2-16/1)
4/30--David Nicholls (7/1-5/1*-15/8*-

67/82 winners (81.7%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
9--David O'Meara (6/5-9/4-7/4-2/1-9/2**-9/4-7/2-11/8-11/4)
7--David Nicholls (10/3-3/1-11/8-7/2-5/2-6/4-11/4)
4--Mark Johnston (6/4-4/5-15/8-11/10)
3--Phil Kirby (7/4-7/2-2/1)
3--John Quinn (2/1-13/8-3/1)

2.10: Four favourites have won via the last nine renewals, whilst eight winners scored at odds of 7/1 or less during the study period.

2.40: All nine winners during the last eleven years have been sent off at 10/1 or less, statistics which include three successful market leaders.  Three-year-olds have won seven of the last eight contests.

3.10: The last five winners have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-7.  Four favourites have won since the inaugural running back in 2005 during which time, the biggest priced gold medallists emerged at 11/2.

3.40: The last eight gold medallists have carried weights of 9-2 or less.  Successful market leaders have only been conspicuous by their absence via nine contests during the last eleven years.  That said, three of the last five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

4.10: Seven of the last twelve available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses sent off in double figures, statistics which include the two (16/1 & 14/1) of the last three winners. Five renewals have slipped by since the first two favourites obliged back in 2005/6.
Kempton:

Silvestre De Souza had ridden five of his ten horses to winning effect at the time of writing and his 18% strike rate (which has produced an LSP figure of 48 points at Kempton in recent times) is further proof that the pilot continues to improve year on year.
Southwell:

Taking note of the trainers I mentioned in dispatches for Southwell’s Tuesday meeting, I have to add level stake profits into the mix, as David Nicholls boasts an LSP reading of 155 points over the last five year’s, whilst Alan Bailey’s figure of 126 is none too shabby either!  Linda Jewell’s 100 LSP reading has emerged from a ratio of 3/9 whereby Linda’s raiders are invariable worth a second glance.
Worcester:

WORCESTER DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Worcester: 113
Favourite stats: 45 (39.8%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 9/15 (60.0%)

Leading trainers at Worcester in 2013:
13--Jonjo O'Neill (9/1-10/11*-9/2-4/1-6/5*-5/1-13/8*-5/4*-4/9*-7/2-6/5*-5/2*-5/4*)
7--Peter Bowen (3/1*-13/8*-20/1-5/2*-5/4*-2/1-13/8*)
5--Donald McCain (13/8*-4/1-8/1-9/4-11/10*)
4--Rebecca Curtis (3/1*-8/13*-2/5*-4/6*)
4--Fergal O'Brien (5/1-7/4*-7/1-3/1*)
4--David Pipe (3/1-4/1-Evs*-11/8*)

100/113 winners (88.5%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
12--Jonjo O'Neill (6/1**-7/2-4/1**-6/4-7/4-3/1-15/8-7/4-7/2**-7/2**-15/8-13/8)
5--David Pipe (2/1-15/8-2/1**-Evs-6/5)
4--Charlie Longsdon (15/8-7/4-7/4**-6/4)
3--Peter Bowen (5/2-7/2**-5/4)
3--Donald McCain (5/4-7/4**-11/10)
3--Paul Nicholls (8/11-10/11-5/4)
3--Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/1-3/1-7/2)

 

THURSDAY 29/08:

Hamilton:

HAMILTON DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Hamilton: 88
Favourite stats: 31 (35.2%--includes joint and co favourites + 1 Non runner)
Odds on ratio: 3/9 (33.3%)

Leading trainers at Hamilton in 2013:
13/40--Mark Johnston (11/4-13/8*-4/1-25/1-6/5*-6/1-Evs*-Evs*-3/10*-5/2*-4/1***-7/4*-3/1)
13/62--Keith Dalgleish (12/1-3/1-3/1*-5/1-18/1-11/4-2/1-5/1-Evs*-2/1*-13/8*-14/1-6/5*)
7/17--David Nicholls (Evs*-11/1-11/4-4/1-5/2-7/1-22/1)
7/24--Kevin Ryan (7/2-8/1-5/2-11/4*-Evs*-5/4*-14/5*)

79/88 (89.8%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
5--Eric Alston (9/4-4/1**-7/2--5/2**-4/1***)
5--Mark Johnston (5/2-3/1-11/8-3/1-6/4)
4--Keith Dalgleish (4/9-15/8-85/40-5/2**)

Juvenile event scheduled for 2.10: All four winners have been returned at odds of 5/2 or less thus far, statistics which include two successful (6/4 & 5/6) market leaders.

Three-year-olds handicap scheduled for 2.40 over six furlongs: The last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1, whilst two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via seven contests thus far.

Nine furlong all aged handicap scheduled for 3.40: Four-year-olds have secured four of the last eight available toteplacepot positions, whilst vintage representatives come to the gig on a hat trick this time around.

All aged maiden event over six furlongs due to be contested at 4.10: Three-year-olds have secured six of the nine available toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three of the four winners of the contest.  Two favourites have prevailed, whilst all four winners were returned at odds of 11/2 or less.

Twelve furlong all aged handicap scheduled for 4.45: Mark Johnston’s only option for this event earlier in the week was Discay, with Mark having secured two gold and one silver medal during the last three years.
Kempton:

With a ratio of 14/26 (53.8%) in August, James Fanshawe was very much the flavour of the month and his Kempton record (25% strike rate/45 winners/85 LSP reading) during the last five years also commands plenty of respect.
Lingfield:

Whilst looking up the Kempton stats, I noticed that James Fanshawe has saddled just five A/W runners at Lingfield during the last five years, three of which have won (LSP: 12 points)!
Fontwell:

FONTWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Fontwell: 87
Favourite stats: 33 (37.9%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 12/18 (66.7%)

Leading trainers of winners at Fontwell in 2013:
6--Gary Moore (4/5*-6/4*-12/1-7/1-4/5*-7/1)
5--Chris Gordon (12/1-4/1-3/1-9/2-14/1)
4--Charlie Longsdon (5/2-4/1-4/6*-5/1)
4--Paul Nicholls (3/1-9/4-7/4*-2/1*)
3--Lawney Hill (9/2-11/4*-5/1)
3--Jamie Snowden (7/1-7/1-6/4)

82/87 winners (94.2%) to date started at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
7--Jonjo O'Neill (3/1**-6/4-7/2-Evs-11/4-7/4-3/1)
4--Charlie Longsdon (11/8-13/8-7/2-5/2)
4--Paul Nicholls (5/6-9/4**-7/4-1/4)
3--Kevin Bishop (9/2**-3/1-13/8)
3--Chris Gordon (5/4-7/2-7/2)
3--Brendan Powell (5/4-9/4-4/1)

 

Stratford:

STRATFORD DETAILS FOR 2013: 
Number of races at Stratford: 77
Favourite stats: 30 (38.9%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 7/13 (53.8%)

Leading trainers at Stratford in 2013:
10--Jonjo O'Neill (11/4*-7/4*-7/2-14/1-4/7*-9/1-6/4*-6/4*-11/10*-5/2**)
5--Warren Greatrex (6/1-1/6*-9/4-Evs*-3/1)
3--Peter Bowen (2/1*-5/2*-9/2)
3--Philip Hobbs (9/2**-11/4-4/5*)
3--Phil Middleton (10/3*-4/1-10/3)
3--David Pipe (5/2-12/1-2/5*)
3--Tim Vaughan (5/2-8/13*-14/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1

70/77 winners (90.9%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
3--Jonjo O'Neill (9/4**-10/11-5/2)
2--Marc Barber (9/4 & 3/1**)
2--Peter Bowen (15/8 & 7/4)
2--John Ferguson (4/1** & 4/9)
2--Donald McCain (4/6 & 4/1**)
2--David Pipe (11/8 & 5/2**)
2--Jamie Snowdon (3/1 & 10/3)
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/1** & 7/2)
2--Tim Vaughan (6/4 & 11/4)
2--Evan Williams (10/11 & 7/4)
2--Ian Williams (9/4 & 6/4)

 

FRIDAY 30/08:

Chester:

CHESTER DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Chester: 76
Favourite stats: 25 (32.9%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 1/3

Leading trainers at Chester in 2013:
7/50--Richard Fahey (12/1-4/1-11/4*-11/2-5/2-7/4*-11/4)
6/41--Mark Johnston (2/1*-9/1-6/4*-9/2-9/2-5/1)
4/27--Tom Dascombe (7/1-13/8*-9/2**-4/1

74/76 winners (97.4%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
8--Mark Johnston (10/3-7/4-9/4-5/2-10/11-4/1****-5/2-9/4)
7--Richard Fahey (3/1-11/8-9/4-Evs-3/1**-3/1**-5/2)
5--Tom Dascombe (3/1-Evs-3/1**-5/4-9/4)
3--Andrew Balding (2/1-2/1-9/4)
3--Brain Ellison (3/1-4/1****-5/2**)
3--Ian Williams (7/2-3/1-2/1)
3--Sir Michael Stoute (15/8-3/1-6/4)

 

Salisbury:

SALISBURY DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Salisbury: 74
Favourite stats: 29 (39.2%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 11/13 (84.6%)

Leading trainers at Salisbury in 2013:
16/54--Richard Hannon (2/1**-1/3*-15/8*-5/2**-4/5*-5/6*-6/1-9/2-3/10*-3/1*-6/1-2/5*-5/4*-4/5*-9/2-4/5*)
4/4--Lady Cecil (6/4*-4/1-1/3*-11/8)

69/74 winners (93.2%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
8--Richard Hannon (6/4-9/4**-4/6-7/4-11/10-7/4-5/4-3/1)
3--Ralph Beckett (4/1***-9/4-5/2**)
3--Henry Candy (4/1***-5/2-3/1)
3--Luca Cumani (9/4-11/4**-2/1)
3--William Haggas (9/4-11/4**-10/11)
3--Amanda Perrett (7/2-11/4-9/2)
3--Sir Michael Soute (2/1-Evs-1/2)

 

Sandown:

SANDOWN DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Sandown: 86
Favourite stats: 37 (43.5%--includes joint and co favourites & 1 Non-Runner)
Odds on ratio: 8/12 (66.7%)

Leading trainers at Sandown in 2013:
10/60--Richard Hannon (3/1-13/8*-11/10*-3/1**-5/4*-1/4*-4/1**-8/11*-8/1-13/2)
7/33--Andrew Balding (8/1-14/1-11/1-7/4*-11/4-9/2-11/2)
5/23--Sir Michael Stoute (8/1-4/1-5/1-5/6*-1/5*)
4/16--William Haggas (11/8*-5/2*-3/1-9/2)
4/21--Saeed Bin Suroor (7/2-11/10*-9/2-3/1)
3/5--Henry Candy (7/2**-11/4*-4/1)
3/11--Roger Charlton (9/4*-15/8*-11/4*)
3/21--Roger Varian (11/4-10/11*-8/1)
2/2--David Brown (9/4* & 10/1)

79/86 (91.9%) winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
6--Richard Hannon (11/4**-3/1-11/10-11/4**-11/4-11/4)
6--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/1**-5/4-7/2-7/2-6/4-6/4)
5--Sir Michael Stoute (4/5-6/4-7/2-11/8-9/4)
4--William Haggas (13/8-11/4**-3/1**-4/5)
3--John Gosden (3/1-5/1***-11/4**)
3--Brian Meehan (Evs-11/4**-15/8)
3--Jeremy Noseda (7/4 & 5/1***-5/2)
3--Roger Varian (9/4-10/11-7/2)

Nursery event scheduled for 2.20: Mick Channon held two options for this contest at the penultimate entry stage, the trainer coming to this particular gig on a hat trick having saddled three of the last six winners.  The last nine winners have scored at odds of 6/1 or less during which time, five favourites obliged.

All aged handicap over the minimum trip due to be contested at 2.50: Four-year-olds come the party on a hat trick, though five-year-old gained six victories between 2003 and 2009. Although only two favourites have prevailed during the last decade, nine winners were returned at a top price of 8/1.  Five of the last six scorers were burdened with a minimum weight of 9-1.

2YO maiden event over seven furlongs scheduled for 3.20: Seven renewals have slipped by since a favourite obliged, whilst Richard Hannon ahs saddled two of the five gold medallists.

Mile event for maiden fillies due to be contested at 4.25: The last six market leaders have prevailed!

Three-year-old handicap over ten furlongs scheduled for 5.00: All seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 to date.  Last year’s 9/4 favourite was the first market leader to oblige, though the biggest priced winner was returned at 10/1 in 2011.

 

Thirsk:

THIRSK (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Thirsk: 89
Favourite stats: 28 (31.5% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 5/9 (55.5%)

Trainers of winners at Thirsk in 2013:
8/27--David Barron (7/2**-11/4*-11/4**-7/2*-5/2-4/5*-10/1-4/7*)
5/43--David O'Meara (4/1*-13/8*-11/4*-6/5*-16/1)
5/57--Tim Easterby (7/1-7/1-4/1-15/8*-3/1*)
4/15--Mrs K Burke (10/3-4/1-9/4**-4/1)
4/17--Mick Easterby (28/1-7/2*-18/1-5/2*)
4/17--James Given (11/2***-17/2-14/1-7/4*)
4/32--Richard Fahey (13/2-9/1-1/5*-10/3)
4/44--Ruth Carr (9/2*-16/1-11/2-8/1)

75/89 winners (84.3%) scored at odds of 10/1 or less to date

Trainers of beaten favourites:
9--David O'Meara (7/2**-9/4-2/1-3/1-2/1-5/4-3/1-11/4-3/1)
8--Kevin Ryan (4/6*-2/1**-11/2***-11/4-11/4-9/4-5/1-11/4)
4--Richard Fahey (2/1-11/4**-7/2**-5/4)
3--Michael Dods (15/8-15/8-3/1)

One mile juvenile event scheduled for 2.10: Trainers do not help the cause at times because Mick Channon has saddled three winners of this event when represented in the contest and yes you guessed it, Mick did not have a runner involved at the five day stage!  I have left the information in the analysis for your convenience for the 2013 contest.  Only one of the four short priced favourites has even reached the frame (an 8/13 chance) with the winners being returned at 11/3-5/1-12/1-18/1 to date.

Two mile handicap event scheduled for 2.40: Both favourites have finished out of the (short field) frames thus far behind 7/1 and 11/2 winners.

Three-year-old handicap over six furlongs scheduled for 3.50: Two of the three favourites (including an 11/4 winner) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

Classified event over six furlongs due to be contested at 4.25: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include a successful 4/6 market leader.

Class 4 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 4.55: The only favourite to secure a toteplacepot position via four renewals to date was the winner of one of the two divisions of the 2010 contest at odds of 4/1.

 

Southwell:

As well as the previous trainers mentioned earlier in the analysis, you might like to add Hughie Morrison to the list, especially as Hughie had four runners pencilled in for Friday’s meeting at the track at the time of writing.  Hughie boasts a strike rate of 25% via thirty seven winners at Southwell during the last five years, a ratio which has brought about an LSP reading of twenty seven points.

 

SATURDAY 31/08:

Bath:

BATH DETAILS FOR 2013: 
Number of races at Bath 100
Favourite stats: 41 (41.4%--includes joint and co favourites & 1 Non-runner)
Odds on ratio: 13/18 (72.2%)

Leading trainers at Bath in 2013:
6/9--Sir Mark Prescott (5/6*-10/11*-1/4*-4/1-3/10*-1/2*)
6/27--Jo Hughes (6/1-7/4**-5/1-20/1-4/1-15/8*)
5/8--William Haggas (7/2-7/2-7/4*-Evs*-4/11*)
5/11--Mark Johnston (7/4-6/4-5/1-2/1*-4/1)
5/19--Richard Hannon (2/1*-10/11*-11/10*-4/11*-7/2)
4/34--Mick Channon (6/1-9/1-5/1-6/4*)
3/5--Saeed Bin Suroor (5/4*-2/1*-4/1)
3/6--Tom Dascombe (2/1*-11/4-4/6*)
3/11--Jamie Osborne (14/1-5/1-9/2**)
3/13--Clive Cox (16/1-7/4*-10/1)

90/100 winners (90.0%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
3--Andrew Balding (5/1****-7/4**-5/4)
3--Milton Bradley (9/2**-7/4-7/2)
3--Tony Carroll (10/3-2/1-5/2)
3--David Evans (4/1**-6/4-5/1****)
3--Jo Hughes (7/2-9/4-10/3**)

 

Beverley:

BEVERLEY DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Beverley: 115
Favourite stats: 42 (36.8%--includes joint and co favourites & 1 Non runner)
Odds on ratio: 8/12 (66.7%)

Leading trainers of winners at Beverley in 2013 (includes one dead heat):
14/57--Mark Johnston (7/2*-4/6*-5/1-13/8*-7/4*-5/6*-5/2-12/1-7/2*-13/8*-4/1-13/2-11/10*-2/1*)
10/33--David O'Meara (5/6*-10/1-5/2*-7/2-8/1-9/2-10/11*-7/4*-13/2-17/2)
8/39--Mick Easterby (15/8*-5/1-9/1-7/1-5/1-15/2-11/2-6/1)
7/18--Brian Ellison (40/1-11/1-4/1-5/4*-12/1-11/2-3/1**)
5/26--David Nicholls (14/1-12/1-3/1*-8/1-6/4*)
5/30--Kevin Ryan (9/2-8/1-2/1-6/1-15/8*)
5/50--Richard Fahey (15/8*-20/1-12/1-6/1-11/2)
5/61--Tim Easterby (14/1-14/1-9/4*-4/6*-10/3)
4/5--James Turner (4/1-5/4*-15/8*-9/2*)

106/116 (90.8%) winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
5--Mick Easterby (7/2-9/4-9/2**-2/1-7/4)
5--Mark Johnston (7/4-9/4**-11/4*-7/4-6/4)
3--Richard Fahey (10/11-5/2-11/4)
3--Steve Gollings (4/1-3/1-7/2)
3--Phil Kirby (6/5-13/8-9/4)
3--David O'Meara (9/4**-11/4-10/11)
3--Jason Tate (5/4-6/5-13/8)
3--Tracy Waggott (3/1-3/1-9/2**)

 

Chester:

CHESTER DETAILS FOR 2013: 
Number of races at Chester: 76
Favourite stats: 25 (32.9%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 1/3

Leading trainers at Chester in 2013:
7/50--Richard Fahey (12/1-4/1-11/4*-11/2-5/2-7/4*-11/4)
6/41--Mark Johnston (2/1*-9/1-6/4*-9/2-9/2-5/1)
4/27--Tom Dascombe (7/1-13/8*-9/2**-4/1

74/76 winners (97.4%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
8--Mark Johnston (10/3-7/4-9/4-5/2-10/11-4/1****-5/2-9/4)
7--Richard Fahey (3/1-11/8-9/4-Evs-3/1**-3/1**-5/2)
5--Tom Dascombe (3/1-Evs-3/1**-5/4-9/4)
3--Andrew Balding (2/1-2/1-9/4)
3--Brain Ellison (3/1-4/1****-5/2**)
3--Ian Williams (7/2-3/1-2/1)
3--Sir Michael Stoute (15/8-3/1-6/4)

 

Sandown:

SANDOWN DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Sandown: 86
Favourite stats: 37 (43.5%--includes joint and co favourites & 1 Non-Runner)
Odds on ratio: 8/12 (66.7%)

Leading trainers at Sandown in 2013:
10/60--Richard Hannon (3/1-13/8*-11/10*-3/1**-5/4*-1/4*-4/1**-8/11*-8/1-13/2)
7/33--Andrew Balding (8/1-14/1-11/1-7/4*-11/4-9/2-11/2)
5/23--Sir Michael Stoute (8/1-4/1-5/1-5/6*-1/5*)
4/16--William Haggas (11/8*-5/2*-3/1-9/2)
4/21--Saeed Bin Suroor (7/2-11/10*-9/2-3/1)
3/5--Henry Candy (7/2**-11/4*-4/1)
3/11--Roger Charlton (9/4*-15/8*-11/4*)
3/21--Roger Varian (11/4-10/11*-8/1)
2/2--David Brown (9/4* & 10/1)

79/86 (91.9%) winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
6--Richard Hannon (11/4**-3/1-11/10-11/4**-11/4-11/4)
6--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/1**-5/4-7/2-7/2-6/4-6/4)
5--Sir Michael Stoute (4/5-6/4-7/2-11/8-9/4)
4--William Haggas (13/8-11/4**-3/1**-4/5)
3--John Gosden (3/1-5/1***-11/4**)
3--Brian Meehan (Evs-11/4**-15/8)
3--Jeremy Noseda (7/4 & 5/1***-5/2)
3--Roger Varian (9/4-10/11-7/2)

Class 3 all aged five furlong handicap scheduled for 2.05: One clear market leader and three joint favourites have won during the study period, whilst eleven of the last twenty market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Group 3 ‘Solario Stakes’ scheduled for 2.40: Three favourites have scored during the last fifteen years, whilst seven of the seventeen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  The last nine winners have scored at a top price of 15/2 during which time, three favourites prevailed.

Group ’Atalanta Stakes’ scheduled for 3.15:  Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last seven winners and Michael held two entries earlier in the week. Three favourites have scored during the last eleven years, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was a 17/2 chance.  Six of the twelve market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

All aged ten furlong handicap event due to be contested at 3.50: Four-year-olds have claimed nine of the last twelve renewals, whilst eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more. Two clear market leaders and three joint favourites have won during the study period, whilst eleven of the nineteen market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Luca Cumani’s only option at the five day stage was Gabrial The Great, the trainer having secured two of the last five contests.

Nursery event scheduled for 4.25: Six of the last thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners. Richard Hannon held three options earlier in the week in a race in which he saddled two of the last eight gold medallists.  Six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones.

All aged handicap over five furlongs due to be contested at 5.30: Three-year-olds have secured half (6/12) of the win and place positions via four renewals, statistics which include gold medallists at 20/1-15/2-11/4.
Market Rasen:

MARKET RASEN NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 
Number of races at Market Rasen: 90
Favourite stats: 32 (35.5%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 8/14 (57.1%)

Leading trainers of winners at Market Rasen in 2013:
5--Charlie Longsdon (6/1-9/2-7/2-5/1-2/1*)
5--Jonjo O'Neill (4/1**-15/2-11/10*-5/2*-2/1*)
4--Peter Bowen (11/2-3/1*-5/6*-3/1)
4--Fergal O'Brien (5/1-7/4*-9/1-16/1)
4--Lucy Wadham (9/4**-9/1-7/2-13/8*)
3--Brian Ellison (14/1-6/1-10/3*)
3--John Ferguson (1/2*-9/2**-8/1)
3--Steve Gollings (3/1-7/2-2/1*)

81/90 winners (90.0%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
10--Jonjo O'Neill (7/2**-9/2**11/4-9/4-5/4-5/2-9/2**-5/1**-9/4-5/4)
5--Donald McCain (10/11-2/1-3/1-13/8-11/8)
4--Jennie Candlish (2/1-11/4-7/2-5/4)
4--John Ferguson (4/1**-11/10-11/4-7/4)
3--Nicky Henderson (5/1-13/8-7/2)
3--Charlie Longsdon (9/4**-3/10*-1/6)

 

Newton Abbot:

NEWTON ABBOT DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Newton Abbot: 95
Favourite stats: 37 (38.9% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 13/18 (72.2%)

Leading trainers at Newton Abbot in 2013:
10--Jonjo O'Neill (4/1-3/1*-6/1-5/4*-4/1-2/1*-9/2-5/2*-6/4*-11/8*)
5--Philip Hobbs (11/4**-12/1-11/1-15/2-11/1)
4--Jim Best (5/6*-4/6*-7/2-5/6*)
4--Martin Hill (8/1-5/1-9/1-16/1)
4--Paul Nicholls (1/2*-2/5*-9/4-12/1)

89/95 winners (93.7%) to date were returned at 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
9--Paul Nicholls (9/4-6/4-2/1**-2/7-Evs-5/2**-7/4-11/4-5/2**)
5--Peter Bowen (11/4-5/4-3/1**-11/10-2/1)
4--Jonjo O'Neill (5/2**-7/5-11/4-3/1)
4--Colin Tizzard (2/1-9/4-3/1**-6/4)

 

SUNDAY 01/09:

Brighton:

BRIGHTON DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Brighton: 94
Favourite stats: 40 (42.6%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 9/17 (52.9%)

Leading trainers of winners at Brighton in 2013:
4/7--David Simcock (5/2-9/4-6/4**-3/1)
4/11--William Knight (3/1-9/1-9/4-11/8*)
4/14--George Margarson (6/1-11/8-5/2*-7/2)

90/94 (95.7%) winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
3--Luca Cumani (6/4**-6/4-4/7)
3--John Hills (11/10*-7/4-4/5)
3--Gary Moore (5/1**-5/2-10/3)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (5/4-11/4**-10/11)

 

Newton Abbot:

NEWTON ABBOT DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Newton Abbot: 95
Favourite stats: 37 (38.9% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 13/18 (72.2%)

Leading trainers at Newton Abbot in 2013:
10--Jonjo O'Neill (4/1-3/1*-6/1-5/4*-4/1-2/1*-9/2-5/2*-6/4*-11/8*)
5--Philip Hobbs (11/4**-12/1-11/1-15/2-11/1)
4--Jim Best (5/6*-4/6*-7/2-5/6*)
4--Martin Hill (8/1-5/1-9/1-16/1)
4--Paul Nicholls (1/2*-2/5*-9/4-12/1)

89/95 winners (93.7%) to date were returned at 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
9--Paul Nicholls (9/4-6/4-2/1**-2/7-Evs-5/2**-7/4-11/4-5/2**)
5--Peter Bowen (11/4-5/4-3/1**-11/10-2/1)
4--Jonjo O'Neill (5/2**-7/5-11/4-3/1)
4--Colin Tizzard (2/1-9/4-3/1**-6/4)

 

MONDAY 02/09:

Brighton:

BRIGHTON DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Brighton: 94
Favourite stats: 40 (42.6%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 9/17 (52.9%)

Leading trainers of winners at Brighton in 2013:
4/7--David Simcock (5/2-9/4-6/4**-3/1)
4/11--William Knight (3/1-9/1-9/4-11/8*)
4/14--George Margarson (6/1-11/8-5/2*-7/2)

90/94 (95.7%) winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
3--Luca Cumani (6/4**-6/4-4/7)
3--John Hills (11/10*-7/4-4/5)
3--Gary Moore (5/1**-5/2-10/3)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (5/4-11/4**-10/11)

Hamilton:

HAMILTON DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Hamilton: 88
Favourite stats: 31 (35.2%--includes joint and co favourites + 1 Non runner)
Odds on ratio: 3/9 (33.3%)

Leading trainers at Hamilton in 2013:
13/40--Mark Johnston (11/4-13/8*-4/1-25/1-6/5*-6/1-Evs*-Evs*-3/10*-5/2*-4/1***-7/4*-3/1)
13/62--Keith Dalgleish (12/1-3/1-3/1*-5/1-18/1-11/4-2/1-5/1-Evs*-2/1*-13/8*-14/1-6/5*)
7/17--David Nicholls (Evs*-11/1-11/4-4/1-5/2-7/1-22/1)
7/24--Kevin Ryan (7/2-8/1-5/2-11/4*-Evs*-5/4*-14/5*)

79/88 (89.8%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
5--Eric Alston (9/4-4/1**-7/2--5/2**-4/1***)
5--Mark Johnston (5/2-3/1-11/8-3/1-6/4)
4--Keith Dalgleish (4/9-15/8-85/40-5/2**)

Ffos Las:

FFOS LAS (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:
Number of races at Ffos Las: 40
Favourite stats: 13 (32.5%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 2/4 (50.0%)

Leading trainers at Ffos Las in 2013:
5/23--David Evans (6/1-16/1-4/1-11/2-18/1)
3/7--Michael Bell (3/1-7/4-6/4*)
2/2--Tom Dascombe (6/4* & 4/6*)

34/40 winners (85.0%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
2--Andrew Balding (9/4 & 5/2)
2--Mick Channon (7/2** & 7/4)
2--Nikki Evans (7/4 & 11/10)
2--Richard Price (5/2 & 3/1)

Mal Boyle

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