Weekly Stat Pack

Weekly Stat Pack: 28th May to 3rd June

Weekly Stat Pack: 28/05 to 03/06

Weekly Stat Pack: 28/05 to 03/06

The sun started to shine at the weekend, English strawberries are beginning to ripen at last and with the Derby and The Oaks on the horizon, all is well with the world.

Statistics for the big races are offered immediately below whilst wishing you a successful week.

The Oaks (Friday):

Only thirteen of the ninety-eight horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot/each way positions (three winners) during the last fifteen years.  Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent seasons.  Twelve of the seventeen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs--most recent renewal offered first):

10-8-2 (12 ran-good)
7-12-2 (13 ran-good)
15-4-2 (14 ran-good)
5-2-9 (10 ran-good)
13-10-11 (16 ran-good)
11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)
5-3-10 (10 ran-good)
2-4-9 (12 ran-good)
3-6 (7 ran-good)
7-11-9 (15 ran-good)
13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)
10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)
5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)
5-4-8 (8 ran-good)

 

The Derby (Saturday):

Aidan O’Brien has saddled three winners and nine placed horses during the last fourteen years and with five of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1, few (if any) of his runners in the Epsom Derby should be ignored.  Camelot was the first odds-on favourite to win the Epsom Derby last year since Shergar obliged back in 1989. Dawn Approach could start as an odds on market leader this time around.  Two beaten odds on chances have been recorded since Walter Swinburn’s mount struck gold, as both Entrepreneur (1997) and Tenby (1993) failed to deliver the goods. The last fourteen winners of The Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include five favourites of one sort or another.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

5-3-7 (9 ran-good to firm)
7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-10-2 (12 ran-good)
3-14-10 (16 ran-good)
14-8-2 (17 ran-good)
10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-12-4 (13 ran-good)
6-11-3 (14 ran-good)
4-16-8 (20 ran-good)
9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)
10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
15-7-10 (15 ran-good)
1-5-17 (16 ran-good)
14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

Will Dawn Approach stay the distance?

His sire New Approach won the Epsom Derby having finished second in both the English and Irish versions of the 2000 guineas.  Jim had left New Approach in the Derby by mistake at one point, not intending the Galileo representative to run.

The worry appears to be on the Dam’s side as Hymn Of The Dawn’s only other winner (Comadoir) never won beyond seven furlongs, taking in as far as a mile and a quarter on just one occasion.  Having won 7/7 thus far, 11/10 (best price on offer as I pen this column) seems to be a fair price given the laid back nature of Dawn Approach.

Libertarian is also scheduled to represent New Approach and I have not heard about connections having any worries about the distance for the ‘Dante’ winner.  Only if the ground deteriorated badly by the time flag fall arrived would a major concern emerge from my viewpoint.

2000 Guineas/Epsom Derby winners:

Camelot (2012) and Sea The Stars (2009) are the two most recent horses to have achieved the double, with the other winners of the 2000 Guineas (Makfi  in 2010) and Frankel (2011) during the period not being aimed at Epsom.
Day by day analysis:

TUESDAY 28/05:

Leicester:

LEICESTER (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Leicester: 27

Favourite stats: 14 (51.9% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/6 (33.3%)

Leading trainers of winners at Leicester in 2013:

3/4--Roger Varian (5/2*-8/1-11/4*)

3/7--Richard Hannon (11/4-2/1*-9/4*)

2/2--David O'Meara (7/1 & 7/2)

2/5--Ed Dunlop (7/4* & 4/1)

1/1--William Haggas (11/10*)

1/1--Alison Hutchinson (13/2)

1/1--David Lanigan (10/11*)

1/1--John Quinn (10/3*)

26/27 winners returned at odds of 10/1 or less to date

No trainer has saddled more than one beaten favourite at Leicester this year

2.00: Ten of the twelve horses to have secured toteplacepot positions to date carried a minimum burden of 9-1, statistics which include three winners.  All four favourites have finished in the frame (one winner), albeit the last three winners have been returned at 25/1-16/1-11/2.

2.30: All five winners have carried a maximum weight of nine stones to date, whilst three of the five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include two (5/2 & 6/4) winners.

3.00: Four of the five winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones, whilst horses carrying 8-13 or more secured thirteen of the fifteen available toteplacepot positions.

4.00: Thirteen of the fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, though the record is not surprising given that market leaders have won nine of the contests!

4.30: The last three winners of this event have contested juvenile events at Royal Ascot.  The 2011 winner was beaten in a photo finish in the Coventry Stakes, whilst the previous gold medallist ran third in the Norfolk stakes.  Last year’s winner was beaten less than eight lengths when made (2/1) favourite for the ‘Chesham’.

 

Lingfield (Mixed meeting (Turf & A/W):

LINGFIELD (TURF) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Lingfield: 16

Favourite stats: 6 (50.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

Leading trainers of (turf) winners at Lingfield in 2013:

2/2--Ralph Beckett (5/4* & Evs*)

1/1--Patrick Chamings (9/2)

1/1--Mick Easterby (5/1)

1/1--Ger Lyons (4/1)

1/1--Peter Makin (12/1)

1/1--Brian Meehan (7/2)

1/1--Aidan O'Brien (4/9*)

15/16 winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

No trainer has saddled more than one beaten favourite at Lingfield (turf) this year

 

Redcar:

REDCAR DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Redcar: 37

Favourite stats: 14 (37.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/4

Leading trainers of winners at Redcar in 2013 (includes one dead heat):

3/18--David O'Meara (5/1-9/4*-4/1)

2/2--Sir Mark Prescott (3/1* & 8/1)

2/6--David Nicholls (7/4* & 11/4)

2/7--David Barron (11/4** & 9/2)

2/8--Michael Dods (9/4* & 8/1)

2/9--Mark Johnston (10/3* & 6/5*)

2/11--Paul Midgley (9/1 & 7/4*)

2/13--Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 3/1*)

2/23--Tim Easterby (6/1 & 10/3*)

1/1--Mick Channon (15/8*)

1/1--Tom Tate (7/2)

36/38 winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

3--Brian Ellison (7/2-2/1-5/4)

2--David Barron (9/4 & 9/2**)

2--Mark Johnston (4/5 & 9/4)

 

Yarmouth:

YARMOUTH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Yarmouth 35

Favourite stats: 13 (37.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/4

Leading trainers of winners at Yarmouth in 2013:

5/8--Richard Fahey (8/1-9/4-11/8*-11/4-7/2*)

3/5--Chris Wall (9/4-9/4**-7/1)

3/12--Julia Feilden (8/1-9/1-9/4)

2/2--George Baker (12/1 & 9/2)

2/2--Jeremy Noseda (11/4* & 3/10*)

2/4--David Brown (9/2 & 11/4)

2/7--Christine Dunnet (5/1 & 10/3*)

2/16--Phil McEntee (12/1 & 11/4*)

1/1--Brian Meehan (6/4*)

1/1--Brendan Powell (12/1)

1/1--Bryan Smart (9/4*)

32/35 returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten trainers:

2--Tony Carroll (9/2 & 85/40)

2--Ed Dunlop (10/11 & 10/3)

 

Newton Abbot:

NEWTON ABBOT DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Newton Abbot: 28

Favourite stats: 12 (42.8% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5

Leading trainers of winners at Newton Abbot in 2013:

3--Jonjo O'Neill (4/1-3/1*-6/1)

2--Susan Gardner (14/1 & 9/2*)

2--Paul Nicholls (1/2* & 9/4)

2--Fergal O'Brien (10/1 & 9/1)

2--R. Barber (10/11* & 11/8*)

25/28 winners to date were returned at 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

4--Paul Nicholls (9/4-6/4-2/1**-2/7)

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WEDNESDAY 29/05:

Beverley:

BEVERLEY DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Beverley: 30

Favourite stats: 12 (40.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/3

Leading trainers of winners at Beverley in 2013:

7/19--Mark Johnston (7/2*-4/6*-5/1-13/8*-7/4*-5/6*-5/2)

4/10--David O'Meara (5/6*-10/1-5/2*-7/2)

2/2--Rae Guest (4/1 & 3/1)

2/4--Richard Whitaker (4/1* & 14/1)

2/7--David Nicholls (14/1 & 8/1)

2/10--Mick Easterby (15/8* & 9/1)

1/1--Paul Green (33/1)

1/1--Amanda Perrett (6/4*)

1/1--Derek Shaw (3/1)

1/1--John Stimpson (7/1)

26/30 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

3--Richard Fahey (10/11-5/2-11/4)

2--Ruth Carr (7/2 & 2/1)

2--Mick Easterby (7/2 & 9/2**)

2--Mark Johnston (7/4 & 11/4*)

2--Tracy Waggott (3/1 & 9/2**)

7.35: Six of the last fifteen favourites have won the ‘Hilary Needler‘, with ten market leaders having claimed toteplacepot positions. I think it is sad that this event has lost its ‘Listed’ status as of this year.

8.35: Twelve of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less , whilst five favourites have won during the last fifteen years.  Eleven of the seventeen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

9.05: All ten winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more, whilst five clear favourites and two joint market leaders have scored to date.  Nine of the twelve favourites have finished in the frame.

 

Nottingham:

NOTTINGHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Nottingham: 35

Favourite stats: 9 (25.7%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/4

Leading trainers of winners at Nottingham in 2013:

3/6--Mark Johnston (6/1-11/8*-11/8*)

2/4--Mel Brittain (40/1 & 7/1)

2/8--Ralph Beckett (11/1 & 8/11*)

2/8--Michael Bell (5/2 & 10/1)

2/11--Richard Fahey (14/1 & 15/8*)

1/1--Mrs K. Burke (9/4)

1/1--Robert Cowell (6/5*)

1/1--Dean Ivory (16/1)

1/1--John Jenkins (8/1)

1/1--William Knight (5/1)

1/1--John Spearing (10/1)

1/1--Tommy Stack (85/40)

26/35 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

4--Ralph Beckett (3/1-9/4-2/1-8/11)

2--Andrew Balding (7/2 & 7/4)

2--Roy Bowring (7/1** twice)

2--Mahmood Al Zarooni (5/2 twice)

 

Cartmel:

CARTMEL DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Cartmel: 14

Favourite stats: 1 (7.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/2

Leading trainer of winners at Cartmel in 2013:

2--Mark Michael McNiff (12/1 & 9/2)

9/14 winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

3--Brian Ellison (5/2**-8/15-11/8)

2--Phil Kirby (2/1 twice)

 

Fontwell:

FONTWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Fontwell: 66

Favourite stats: 29 (43.9%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 11/15 (73.3%)

Leading trainers of winners at Fontwell in 2013:

4--Paul Nicholls (3/1-9/4-7/4*-2/1*)

3--Lawney Hill (9/2-11/4*-5/1)

3--Charlie Longsdon (5/2-4/1-4/6*)

3--Gary Moore (4/5*-6/4*-12/1)

2--Vic Dartnell (10/11* & 7/2*)

2--Chris Gordon (12/1 & 3/1)

2--Nicky Henderson (Evens* twice)

2--Caroline Keevil (11/4** & 16/1)

2--Seamus Mullins (4/1 & 14/1)

2--David Pipe (7/4 & 4/7*)

2--Jamie Snowden (7/1 twice)

2--Colin Tizzard (11/10* & 2/1**)

2--Evan Williams (10/1 & 1/2*)

2--Venetia Williams (1/5* & 10/11*)

63/66 winners to date started at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

4--Charlie Longsdon (11/8-13/8-7/2-5/2)

3--Kevin Bishop (9/2**-3/1-13/8)

3--Paul Nicholls (5/6-9/4**-7/4)

2--Vic Dartnell (10/11 & 7/4**)

2--Chris Gordon (5/4 & 7/2)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (3/1** & 11/4)

2--Brendan Powell (5/4 & 4/1)

2--Peter York (5/4 & 2/1)

 

Kempton:

Expert Fighter (8.35) is Saeed Bin Suroor’s only runner before Thursday this week and with the trainer having saddled seven of his last eighteen runners (38.9%) to winning effect, the four-year-old might be worth a punt.  Saeed’s 33% strike rate (65 winners at Kempton during the last five years) is backed up by an LSP reading of thirty-six points.

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THURSDAY 30/05:

Sandown:

SANDOWN DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Sandown: 17

Favourite stats: 5 (29.4%--includes joint and co favourites & Non-Runner)

Odds on ratio: 0/1

Leading trainers of winners at Sandown in 2013:

2/13--Richard Hannon (3/1 & 11/10*)

1/1--David Brown (9/4*)

1/1--Patrick Chamings (12/1)

1/1--Roger Charlton (9/4*)

1/1--Eve Johnson Houghton (5/1)

1/1--Dean Ivory (14/1)

1/1--Amanda Perrett (7/4*)

1/1--Patrick Prendergast (4/1)

1/1--Saeed Bin Suroor (7/2)

16/17 winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

2--John Gosden (3/1 & 11/4**)

Class 5 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 6.15: Fifteen of the sixteen win and place positions have been claimed by horses carrying 8-11 or more, whilst the six favourites thus far have snared four gold and one bronze medal.

National Stakes scheduled for 6.45: Richard Hannon has saddled four of the last six winners whilst five of the last sixteen favourites have won with seven market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Richard held three very strong entries (Steventon Star, Thunder Strike and Anticipated) at the time of writing for this year’s event.

Henry II event scheduled for 7.15: Nine of the last seventeen favourites (two winners) have secured toteplacepot positions.  The last four favourites have all finished in the money during which time, the top priced winner was returned at 4/1.

Brigadier Gerard contest due to be sent off at 7.50: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ of late, securing thirteen of the last sixteen renewals between them.  Four-year-olds lead the way with ten victories during the extended study period.  Five of the last fourteen favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst eight market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

Listed ‘Heron Stakes’ scheduled for 8.20: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this event during the last sixteen years. Twelve of the last eighteen market leaders have finished in the money. Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last ten winners and the trainer held just one option at the penultimate stage which was Mango Diva, with Ryan Moore already ’jocked aboard’.

Class 3 one mile handicap scheduled for 8.50: Four-year-olds have claimed twelve of the last eighteen gold medals (including seven of the last ten) in the finale. Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst ten of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Six of the last nine favourites have claimed three gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of those beaten market leaders.

 

Hamilton:

HAMILTON DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Hamilton: 21

Favourite stats: 5 (23.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/1

Leading trainers of winners at Hamilton in 2013:

3/6--David Nicholls (Evs*-11/1-11/4)

3/7--Richard Fahey (7/2-6/4*-9/4*)

3/9--Alan Berry (14/1-12/1-10/1)

3/11--Alan Swinbank (25/1-9/2-7/1)

2/6--Kevin Ryan (7/2 & 5/2)

18/21 of the eight winners were returned at odds of 11/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

2--Michael Dods (3/1* & 5/2)

2--David Nicholls (9/4 & 9/2)

 

Lingfield:

LINGFIELD (TURF) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Lingfield: 16

Favourite stats: 6 (50.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

Leading trainers of (turf) winners at Lingfield in 2013:

2/2--Ralph Beckett (5/4* & Evs*)

1/1--Patrick Chamings (9/2)

1/1--Mick Easterby (5/1)

1/1--Ger Lyons (4/1)

1/1--Peter Makin (12/1)

1/1--Brian Meehan (7/2)

1/1--Aidan O'Brien (4/9*)

15/16 winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

No trainer has saddled more than one beaten favourite at Lingfield (turf) this year

 

Wetherby:

WETHERBY NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Wetherby: 57

Favourite stats: 27 (47.4%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 5/8 (62.5%)

Leading trainers of winners at Wetherby in 2013:

4--Brian Ellison (7/1-8/13*-11/4-6/4*)

4--Donald McCain (5/2-13/8*-2/1*-5/2)

4--Sue Smith (5/1-4/1***-9/2-5/4*)

3--Kim Bailey (Evs*-9/2-5/6*)

3--John Wade (2/1*-3/1*-7/2)

2--Caroline Bailey (6/1 & 85/40*)

2--Tim Easterby (3/1 & 9/4*)

2--Anthony Honeyball (8/1 & 13/8**)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (11/4 & 7/1)

2--David Pipe (2/1 & 12/5*)

53/57 winners sent off at 9/1 or less to date

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

3--Donald McCain (3/1**-13/8-5/2)

3--David Pipe (11/8-10/11*-8/13*)

2--Tom George (9/4 & 11/4)

2--Malcolm Jefferson (15/8 & 11/4)

2--Alan King (5/2 & 10/11)

2--Fergal O'Brien (4/1*** & 11/4)

2--John Wade (11/4 & 9/4)

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FRIDAY 31/05:

Epsom:

EPSOM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Epsom: 6

Favourite stats: 1 (16.7% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

Trainers of winners at Epsom in 2013:

1/1--Clive Cox (14/1)

1/1--Ted Powell (12/1)

1/1--James Tate (5/1)

1/1--Roger Varian (4/1)

1/3--Richard Fahey (10/1)

1/4--Andrew Balding (3/1*)

All six winners have scored at odds of 14/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

2--Luca Cumani (11/2**** & 11/4)

Listed Princess Elizabeth event scheduled for 1.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen renewals of this contest.  Six of the last ten favourites have prevailed as have seven of the latest fifteen market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 7/1.

'Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

6-3-1 (8 ran-good)
7-1-8 (8 ran-good)
5-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)
5-8-7 (8 ran-good)
6-8-5 (9 ran-good)
6-4-5 (10 ran-good to soft)
5-2-3 (10 ran-good)
4 (3 ran-good)
10-1-5 (8 ran-good)
4-5-1 (8 ran-good)
6-5 (6 ran-soft)
2-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)
3-4-7 (10 ran-good to soft)
2-1 (6 ran-good to soft)
3-5-6 (8 ran-good)

Class 2 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 2.10: Four-year-olds have dominated this event, as vintage representatives have snared seven of the last fifteen renewals.  Four favourites have won during the study period, whilst six market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  The last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

8-2-3 (13 ran-good)
8-1-5 (11 ran-good)
10-5-3 (12 ran-good)
4-11-6 (10 ran-good)
5-2-1 (10 ran-good)
1-4-11 (12 ran-good to soft)
13-12-4-2 (17 ran-good)
10-8-15-14 (17 ran-good)
1-3-7 (11 ran-good)
6-7-2 (14 ran-good)
10-1-9 (11 ran-good to soft)
10-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)
14-7-6 (14 ran-good)
10-3-8 (15 ran-good)
3-8-10 (14 ran-good)

Diomed Stakes due to be contested at 2.45: Eleven of the last fifteen winners have scored at 8/1 or less (three winning favourites).

'Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

6-4 (6 ran-good)
1-8-6 (8 ran-good to firm)
8-2-9 (9 ran-good)
4-8-7 (8 ran-good)
5-8-4 (8 ran-good)
2-3 (5 ran-good)
2-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
1-4 (7 ran-good)
3-1-10 (11 ran-good)
9-11-3 (10 ran-good)
6-8-7 (9 ran-good to soft)
6-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
2-3 (5 ran-good)
4-2 (6 ran-good)
3-1-2 (10 ran-good)

Class 2 eight and a half furlong handicap scheduled for 3.20: Four-year-olds have called the shots in this race, as eight vintage representatives have won during the last fifteen years, statistics which include six of the last eleven gold medallists. That said, five-year-olds come to the gig on four timer on this occasion, albeit that last year’s winner was following home by three four-year-olds which were returned at 20/1-10/1-33/1. Two favourites have won during the study period, whilst seven of the last seventeen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

7-4-12-1 (17 ran-good)
4-12-17-15 (18 ran-good)
10-8-6 (14 ran-good)
12-3-8 (9 ran-good)
11-14-10 (14 ran-good)
4-9-14 (14 ran-good to soft)
15-2-1-12 (16 ran-good)
4-1-6 (11 ran-good)
8-11-7 (13 ran-good)
5-1-3-15 (16 ran-good)
1-10-5 (10 ran-soft)
3-9-2 (11 ran-good to firm)
3-10-16 (14 ran-good to soft)
9-8-5 (14 ran-good to soft)
15-14-7 (14 ran-good)

Seven furlong ‘Surrey Stakes’ due to be contested at 4.45: Six clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won to date via fifteen renewals, taking into account that the favourite five years ago was withdrawn shortly before the off before a new market could be formed.  Ten of the fifteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

7-2 (6 ran-good)
5-1 (6 ran-good)
1-3-6 (8 ran-good)
9-2-5 (9 ran-good)
3-9 (7 ran-good)
2-3-10 (9 ran-good to soft)
5-4 (6 ran-good)
7-2-9 (9 ran-good)
2-9-7 (9 ran-good)
3-5 (5 ran-soft)
6-7 (7 ran-good to firm)
5-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)
1-4 (6 ran-good)
1-5-9 (9 ran-good)

3YO Class 2 handicap over seven furlongs scheduled for 5.20: The last seven market leaders have finished out of the frame since the last successful favourite obliged.  Three favourites have prevailed during the last eleven years.  Seven of the last nine winners have carried nine stones of less.

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

9-14-11 (12 ran-good)
7-8-9 (11 ran-good)
1-3-6 (10 ran-good)
9-13-5 (15 ran-good)
11-9-10 (11 ran-good)
1-9-4 (11 ran-good to soft)
3-8-12 (13 ran-good)
8-13-14 (14 ran-good)
8-14-11-4 (17 ran-good)
1-6-11-14 (16 ran-good)
6-12-3 (12 ran-soft)

 

Goodwood:

GOODWOOD DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Goodwood: 34

Favourite stats: 13 (39.4%--includes joint and co favourites + 1 Non runner)

Odds on ratio: 4/5 (80.0%)

Leading trainers of winners at Goodwood in 2013:

3/5--Sir Michael Stoute (6/4*-3/1-6/4*)

3/10--Amanda Perrett (8/1-7/2*-5/2*)

3/27--Richard Hannon (5/1-1/4*-16/1)

2/3--Brian Ellison (10/1 & 11/2)

2/5--Michael Appleby (9/2** & 5/1)

2/7--Sir Henry Cecil (13/8 & 8/13*)

2/9--Mark Johnston (4/1** & 9/4*)

1/1--John Gallagher (8/1)

1/1--Brett Johnson (8/1)

30/34 winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

3--Clive Cox (9/2-9/2**-Evs)

2--Richard Hannon (2/1 & 5/2)

 

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Catterick:

CATTERICK DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Catterick: 22

Favourite stats: 5 (23.8%--includes joint and co favourites and a Non Runner)

Odds on ratio: 1/1

Leading trainers of winners at Catterick in 2013:

2/2--Ann Duffield (3/1* & 10/1)

2/8--Ruth Carr (4/1 & 13/2)

2/8--Brian Ellison (8/1 & 16/1)

2/10--Tracy Waggott (9/2* & 7/2)

1/1--Mel Brittain (9/2)

1/1--Wilf Storey (10/1)

19/22 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

3--David Nicholls (10/3-3/1-11/8)

2--Brian Ellison (9/2 & 2/1)

2--David O'Meara (6/5 & 7/4)

2--Kevin Ryan (7/4 & 3/1)

 

Bath:

BATH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Bath 29

Favourite stats: 9 (32.1%--includes joint and co favourites & Non-runner)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

Leading trainers of winners at Bath in 2013:

3/10--Jo Hughes (6/1-7/4**-5/1)

2/4--Clive Cox (16/1 & 10/1)

2/4--Mark Johnston (7/4 & 2/1*)

2/4--Jamie Osborne (14/1 & 9/2**)

2/6--Richard Hannon (2/1* & 11/10*)

2/13--Mick Channon (6/1 & 5/1)

1/1--Ruth Carr (7/1)

1/1--Peter Charalambous (7/1)

1/1--Luke Dace (17/2)

1/1--Charlie Hills (9/4*)

1/1--Ismail Mohammed (5/2*)

1/1--Hughie Morrison (2/9*)

26/29 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

3--Andrew Balding (5/1****-7/4**-5/4)

2--Tony Carroll (10/3 & 5/2)

2--David Evans (4/1** & 5/1****)

2--Richard Hannon (10/11 & 4/1)

2--Mark Johnston (6/4 & 7/4)

 

Market Rasen:

MARKET RASEN DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Market Rasen: 48

Favourite stats: 19 (39.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/8 (50.0%)

Leading trainers of winners at Market Rasen in 2013:

4--Lucy Wadham (9/4**-9/1-7/2-13/8*)

3--Brian Ellison (14/1-6/1-10/3*)

2--John Ferguson (1/2* & 8/1)

2--Steve Gollings (3/1 & 2/1*)

2--Charlie Longsdon (6/1 & 7/2)

41/48 winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

4--Jonjo O'Neill (7/2**-9/2**11/4-9/4)

3--John Ferguson (4/1**-11/10-11/4)

2--Charlie Longsdon (9/4** & 1/6)

2--Jennie Candlish (2/1 & 7/2)

2--Donald McCain (10/11 & 13/8)

2--David O'Meara (2/1 * 9/4**)

2--Dianne Sayer (11/10 & 11/4)

----------------------------------------------------------------

SATURDAY 01/06:

Epsom:

EPSOM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Epsom: 6

Favourite stats: 1 (16.7% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

Trainers of winners at Epsom in 2013:

1/1--Clive Cox (14/1)

1/1--Ted Powell (12/1)

1/1--James Tate (5/1)

1/1--Roger Varian (4/1)

1/3--Richard Fahey (10/1)

1/4--Andrew Balding (3/1*)

All six winners have scored at odds of 14/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

2--Luca Cumani (11/2**** & 11/4)

Class 2 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 1.35: Horses drawn in the ‘red box’ (stall one) have secured five of the last thirteen winners of this event. Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the study period.  Twelve of the eighteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

7-13-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
7-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
11-1-9 (12 ran-good to firm)
1-15-7-12 (17 ran-good)
6-1-5 (12 ran-good)
10-1-2 (14 ran-good)
8-11-10 (15 ran-good to firm)
8-11-9 (11 ran-good)
1-14-16-2 (18 ran-good)
11-13-14-15 (17 ran-good)
1-3-7 (10 ran-soft)
1-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
1-14-7 (12 ran-good to soft)
2-3-9 (15 ran-good to soft)
11-9-5 (11 ran-good)

Woodcote Stakes over six furlongs scheduled for 2.05: Mark Johnston has secured three renewals during the last eleven years and the trainer held two options (Ifwecan & Pigeon Pie) at the penultimate stage. Four clear market leaders and one co favourite have won of late, while eight of the last seventeen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

4-8 (7 ran-good to firm)
8-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-8-6 (9 ran-good to firm)
11-10-3 (12 ran-good)
3-10-2 (10 ran-good)
11-9-1 (13 ran-good)
1-4 (6 ran-good to firm)
2-5-9 (10 ran-good)
1-7-5 (8 ran-good)
3-8-1 (10 ran-good)
5-4 (6 ran-good to soft)
2-8-7 (11 ran-good to firm)
8-2 (7 ran-good)
2-1-7 (9 ran-good to soft)
2-5 (7 ran-good)

Coronation Cup scheduled for 2.40: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last fifteen victories whilst Aidan O’Brien has won six of the last eight renewals of this Group 1 prize. Five of the last fifteen favourites have won, whilst eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in during the study period.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

4-6 (6 ran-good to firm)
1-3 (5 ran-good)
8-5-1 (9 ran-good)
8-5-1 (8 ran-good)
7-3-10 (11 ran-good)
2-3 (7 ran-good to soft)
5-2 (6 ran-good)
9-6 (7 ran-good)
5-1-3 (11 ran-good)
4-8-7 (9 ran-good)
3-4 (6 ran-soft)
1-2 (6 ran-good to firm)
2 (4 ran-good to soft)
3-2 (7 ran-good to soft)
2-1 (7 ran-good)

‘Dash’ event over five furlongs scheduled for 3.15: Dandy Nicholls has saddled four of the last eleven winners, whilst twelve of the last fifteen favourites have finished out of the frame since a 9/2 joint favourite (the last successful market leader) prevailed back in 2001.

‘Draw details’ (five furlongs):

2-16-15-3 (20 ran-good to firm)
9-13-10-1 (16 ran-good to firm)
15-14-16-9 (19 ran-good to firm)
18-12-11-1 (18 ran-good)
8-19-12-17 (19 ran-good)
15-16-17-12 (18 ran-good)
17-8-20-5 (20 ran—good to firm)
10-3-5-15 (20 ran—good)
8-10-2-3 (20 ran—good to firm)
10-11-8 (11 ran—good)
1-6-9 (11 ran—good to soft)
12-6-7-17 (17 ran—good to firm)
3-1-12 (12 ran—good)
11-2-9 (11 ran—good)
10-2-4 (15 ran—good)

The Derby due to be contested at 4.00: Aidan O’Brien was responsible for six of the fifteen declarations at the five-day stage.  Eighteen of the thirty-two odds on favourites have won the Epsom Derby (56.3%) whilst ‘only’ eighteen of the last fifty-one market leaders (35.3%) have scored.

Class 2 mile and a half handicap scheduled for 4.50: Four-year-olds have claimed seven of the last fifteen renewals including six of the last nine (vintage representatives have finished 1-2-3-4 twice in the last four years).  Only one favourite has won during the past fifteen years, whilst just two of the other fourteen market leaders have additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

11-14-4 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-7-6 (15 ran-good to firm)
6-1-13 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-8-2-9 (16 ran-good)
3-15-9 (15 ran-good)
16-1-9-15 (16 ran-good)
10-12-14 (14 ran-good to firm)
15-4-20-9 (good)
10-12-3 (13 ran-good)
4-6-2 (8 ran-good)
2-5 (7 ran-good to soft)
9-2-8 (11 ran-good to firm)
4-2-1 (12 ran-good)
3-5-7 (11 ran-good)
1-11-13 (15 ran-good)

Class 2 six furlong handicap scheduled for 5.25: The six previous market leaders finished out of the frame before the 2011 favourite obliged.  The race ‘reverted to type’ last year however, with all three 7/1 co favourites finished out of the frame.  Eight of the last nine winners carried a minimum burden of nine stones, whilst four-year-olds have won five of the last seven contests.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

7-3-9-14 (16 ran-good to firm)
4-7-9 (15 ran-good to firm)
13-4-14-3 (16 ran-good to firm)
17-7-4-8 (16 ran-good)
2-12-6 (12 ran-good)
9-1-11-6 (16 ran-good)
5-17-6-1 (17 ran-good to firm)
3-12-13 (15 ran-good)
1-13-9-11 (17 ran-good)
2-1-3-17 (17 ran-good)
7-8-11 (15 ran-good to soft)

 

Doncaster:

DONCASTER (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Doncaster: 59

Favourite stats: 22 (34.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/6

Leading trainers of winners at Doncaster in 2013:

9/44--Richard Fahey (14/1-11/2-7/2-4/1**-16/1-10/3-7/4-9/2-5/4*)

3/4--William Haggas (11/4 & 5/2*)

3/10--Richard Hannon (6/1-13/8*-3/1**)

3/18--Brain Ellison (9/2*-16/1-3/1*)

2/4--David Simcock (3/1 & 13/8*)

2/10--Charlie Hills (5/6* & 4/5*)

2/10--Mark Johnston (7/4* & 2/1**)

2/15--Michael Dods (25/1 & 16/1)

2/15--Mick Easterby (16/1 & 11/4*)

2/15--David O'Meara (7/1 & 6/1)

47/59 winners scored at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

4--David O'Meara (9/2-Evs-2/1-11/2**)

3--John Gosden (2/1-13/2-2/1)

3--Mark Johnston (11/4-5/2-11/4***)

2--Andrew Balding (11/4** & 11/2***)

2--Michael Bell (7/1 & 11/4**)

2--Charlie Hills (11/8 & 11/4)

2--John Quinn (2/1 & 6/1)

 

Musselburgh:

MUSSELBURGH (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Musselburgh: 29

Favourite stats: 8 (27.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

Leading trainers of winners at Musselburgh in 2013:

3/16--Richard Fahey (7/2-7/4*-7/2)

3/17--Mark Johnston (2/1*-9/2-9/4*)

2/3--Alan Brown (12/1 & 7/2**)

2/3--Philip Kirby (11/4 & 10/1)

2/4--Michael Dods (4/1 & 5/1)

2/5--David Barron (7/1 & 3/1)

2/5--Alan Swinbank (9/2 & 4/1**)

2/7--David O'Meara (9/4* & 11/8*)

1/1--Bill Turner (4/6*)

1/1--Wilf Storey (4/1)

26/29 winners have scored at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

4--Mark Johnston (5/2-6/5-5/2-9/4)

2--Richard Fahey (6/4 twice)

2--George Moore (4/1 & 13/8)

2--Bryan Smart (11/4 & 10/11)

 

Newcastle:

NEWCASTLE (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Newcastle: 37

Favourite stats: 9 (24.3% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/3

Leading trainers of winners at Newcastle in 2013:

4/13--Michael Dods (25/1-12/1-7/2**-2/1*)

3/7--David Barron (3/1*-9/1-7/2)

3/12--Richard Fahey (8/1-11/4-16/1)

2/6--Eric Alston (22/1 & 16/1)

2/11--Alan Swinbank (5/2** & 7/2)

2/14--David O'Meara (5/1 & 10/3)

2/17--Keith Dalgleish (11/4 & 9/4*)

2/17--Tracy Waggott (9/1 & 4/1)

1/1--Michael Bell (7/2)

1/1--John Berry (9/2*)

1/1--Marjorie Fife (6/1)

1/1--Chris Grant (9/2)

32/37 winners to date were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

4--David O'Meara (5/2-3/1-5/4-9/4)

3--Richard Fahey (7/4-7/4-5/2)

3--Kevin Ryan (8/13-5/2**-7/2**)

3--Alan Swinbank (6/4-7/2-6/5)

2--Eric Alston (9/2 & 11/2)

2--Richard Guest (14/5 & 11/4)

2--William Haggas (8/13 & 7/2)

2--Roger Varian (2/1 & 15/8)

 

Lingfield:

LINGFIELD (TURF) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Lingfield: 16

Favourite stats: 6 (50.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

Leading trainers of (turf) winners at Lingfield in 2013:

2/2--Ralph Beckett (5/4* & Evs*)

1/1--Patrick Chamings (9/2)

1/1--Mick Easterby (5/1)

1/1--Ger Lyons (4/1)

1/1--Peter Makin (12/1)

1/1--Brian Meehan (7/2)

1/1--Aidan O'Brien (4/9*)

15/16 winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

No trainer has saddled more than one beaten favourite at Lingfield (turf) this year

 

Hexham:

HEXHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Hexham: 29

Favourite stats: 15 (51.7% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 5/6

Leading trainers of winners at Hexham in 2013:

3--Ferdy Murphy (5/1-6/1-15/8*)

3--Lucinda Russell (5/2*-13/8*-15/8)

2--Stuart Crawford (11/10* & 3/1)

2--Sue Smith (5/1 & 10/3)

27/29 winners were returned at odds of 7/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

2--Phil Kirby (5/2** & 9/4)

2--Lucinda Russell (13/8 & 5/2**)

2--Sue Smith (9/2 & 11/4)

 

Worcester:

WORCESTER DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Worcester: 22

Favourite stats: 5 (22.7%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/3

Leading trainers of winners at Worcester in 2013:

2--Rebecca Curtis (3/1* & 2/5*)

2--Fergal O'Brien (5/1 & 7/1)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (9/1 & 9/2)

17/22 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

2--Paul Nicholls (8/11 & 5/4)

2--David Pipe (2/1 & 2/1**)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

SUNDAY 02/06:

Fakenham:

FAKENHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Fakenham: 32

Favourite stats: 12 (37.5% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 6/9 (66.7%)

Leading trainers of winners at Fakenham in 2013:

3--Lucy Wadham (9/1-9/4*-11/4)

2--Peter Bowen (4/1 & 3/1)

2--Caroline Fryer (11/1 & 11/4*)

2--Nicky Henderson (2/5* & 6/4)

2--Fred Hutsby (15/8** & 8/15*)

2--Paul Nicholls (9/4* & 4/9*)

All 32 winners have scored at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

2--John Ferguson (2/1** & 15/8**)

2--Alex Hales (6/4 & 11/8)

 

Southwell (NH):

SOUTHWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Southwell: 57

Favourite stats: 25 (43.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 5/7 (71.4%)

Leading trainers of winners at Southwell in 2013 (includes one dead-heat):

4--Keith Reveley (3/1-11/8*-14/1-3/1)

4--Venetia Williams (Evs*-13/8*-7/1-11/4**)

2--Kim Bailey (5/2 & 7/1)

2--Sean Curran (5/6* & 16/1)

2--Warren Greatrex (7/2 & 9/4*)

2--Nicky Henderson (4/11* & Evs*)

2--Charlie Longsdon (3/1 & 9/2)

2--Paul Nicholls (5/4* & 11/10*)

2--Giles Smyly (25/1 & 11/2)

2--Lucy Wadham (6/4* & 4/1)

54/58 winners to date were returned at odds of 12/1 or less.

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

3--Alan King (5/1**-3/1**-6/4)

2--Tony Carroll (4/1 & 5/1**)

2--Warren Greatrex (6/5 & 13/8)

2--Charlie Longsdon (9/4 twice)

2--Charlie Mann (6/4 & 11/4)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (15/8 & 9/4)

2--Oliver Sherwood (4/5 & 2/1)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONDAY 03/06:

Windsor:

WINDSOR DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Windsor: 46

Favourite stats: 19 (41.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/7 (57.1%)

Trainers of winners at Windsor in 2013 (includes one dead heat):

11/26--Richard Hannon (6/1-11/4*-Evs*-1/10*-9/4-8/11*-3/1*-7/4*-4/6*-4/9*-3/1)

2/3--Marco Botti (9/2 & 5/2**)

2/3--Neil King (11/1 & 4/1)

2/5--Andrew Balding (14/1 & 16/1)

2/6--Brian Meehan (17/2 & 4/1)

2/7--Dean Ivory (9/2 & 5/2*)

2/7--Jeremy Noseda (4/1* & 2/1*)

2/12--Hughie Morrison (14/1 & 7/2*)

1/1--Stuart Kittow (7/2*)

1/1--Saeed Bin Suroor (7/2)

1/1--Ed Walker (11/4)

1/1--Michael Wigham (8/1)

43/47 winners were returned at odds of 11/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

5--Richard Hannon (7/2***-8/11-7/2**-7/4-3/1)

3--Hughie Morrison (6/4-3/1-7/2***)

2--Ralph Beckett (11/4 & 8/11)

2--Michael Bell (6/4 & 9/2)

2--John Gosden (13/8 & 7/4)

2--Brian Meehan (7/2** & 4/7)

 

Leicester:

LEICESTER (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Leicester: 27

Favourite stats: 14 (51.9% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/6 (33.3%)

Leading trainers of winners at Leicester in 2013:

3/4--Roger Varian (5/2*-8/1-11/4*)

3/7--Richard Hannon (11/4-2/1*-9/4*)

2/2--David O'Meara (7/1 & 7/2)

2/5--Ed Dunlop (7/4* & 4/1)

1/1--William Haggas (11/10*)

1/1--Alison Hutchinson (13/2)

1/1--David Lanigan (10/11*)

1/1--John Quinn (10/3*)

26/27 winners returned at odds of 10/1 or less to date

No trainer has saddled more than one beaten favourite at Leicester this year

 

Chepstow:

CHEPSTOW DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Chepstow: 22

Favourite stats: 9 (40.9%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

Leading trainers of winners at Chepstow in 2013:

2/4--Richard Hannon (7/2 & 7/4*)

1/1--Ed de Giles (1/1)

1/1--Rae Guest (5/1)--done

1/1--Alan King (4/1)

1/1--Marcus Tregoning (3/1)

1/1--Sharon Watt (12/1)

20/22 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

4--Bernard Llewellyn (9/2***-7/2**-3/1**-5/1****)

2--John O'Shea (9/2** & 7/2**)

 

Carlisle:

CARLISLE (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Carlisle: 7

Favourite stats: 2 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

Trainers of winners at Carlisle (flat) in 2013:

2/6--Keith Dalgleish (3/1 & 12/1)

1/1--Mrs K Burke (2/1*)

1/1--Bryan Smart (11/2)

1/2--Brian Ellison (7/2*)

1/5--Tim Easterby (7/2)

1/5--Richard Fahey (9/1)

All seven winners to date have scored at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Michael Dods (2/1)

1--Michael Easterby (7/2**)

1--Richard Guest (10/3)

1--Wiliam Haggas (Evs)

1--David O'Meara (6/4)

1--Richard Whitaker (7/2**)

 

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