Weekly Stat Pack

Weekly Stat Pack: 3rd to 9th December 2013

3rd to 9th December

Weekly Stat Pack: 3rd to 9th December

This week’s ‘Tingle Creek’ meeting at Sandown:

Nicky Henderson saddled five winners at the two-day fixture last year, including a 50/1 four timer on the Saturday of the meeting.

Paul Nicholls has a strangle hold on the ‘Tingle Creek’ having saddled seven recent winners, whilst landing three renewals of the Henry VIII Novice Chase which is also contested on the Saturday of the meeting. That said, Nicky Henderson who bagged last weekend’s two big races (‘Hennessey’ and the ‘Fighting Fifth‘) saddled both Sandown gold medallists twelve months ago.

Favourites have won seven renewals of the Tingle Creek during the last eleven years, whilst four favourites have obliged in the afore-mentioned Novice Chase event.

Four of the five odds on favourites have won the ‘Tingle Creek’ during the study period, whilst three of the six odds on market leaders in the ‘Henry VIII’ have prevailed. The beaten hot-pots were saddled by Emma Lavelle, Paul Nicholls and Alan King.

Aside from Nicky’s winner on Friday, Jonjo O’Neill landed a 20/1 double on the first day of the meeting having saddled gold medallists at 13/2 and 15/8.

*

Day to day analysis:

TUESDAY (03/12):

Southwell (NH):

SOUTHWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Southwell: 122
Favourite stats: 49 (40.2%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 13/19 (68.4%)

Leading trainers at Southwell in 2013 (includes one dead-heat):
6--Charlie Longsdon (3/1-7/2**-9/2-10/11*-8/1-9/4)
4--Jonjo O'Neill (11/2-5/4*-16/1-5/6*)
4--Keith Reveley (3/1-11/8*-14/1-3/1)
4--Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/7*-4/5*-7/2-11/4)
4--Lucy Wadham (6/4*-3/1-4/1-6/5*)
4--Venetia Williams (Evs*-13/8*-7/1-11/4**)

115/123 winners (93.5%) to date were returned at odds of 12/1 or less.

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
6--Jonjo O'Neill (15/8-15/8-9/4-15/8-7/4-2/1)
5--Charlie Longsdon (9/4-9/4-8/13-15/8-5/2)
4--Alan King (5/1**-3/1**-6/4-5/2)
4--Sue Smith (8/15-7/2-3/1***-11/10)
3--David Bridgwater (3/1**-2/1-7/4)
3--Brian Ellison (15/8-7/4-9/4)
3--Nicky Henderson (11/8-7/4-15/8)

*

Sedgefield:

SEDGEFIELD NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Sedgefield: 98
Favourite stats: 42 (42.9%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 6/9 (66.7%)

Leading trainers of winners at Sedgefield in 2013:
12--Donald McCain (4/6*-6/5*-5/4*-3/1-8/1-6/5*-10/11*-1/5*-Evs*-7/4*-3/1-8/13*)
5--Diane Sayer (8/1-4/1**-4/1-6/4*-6/4*)
4--Phil Kirby (5/2*-1/4*-11/2-8/1)
4--Sue Smith (7/1-7/4*-11/2-3/1)
3--Joanne Foster (3/1-7/2*-4/1)
3--Steve Gollings (9/2-11/8*-9/4**)
3--Malcolm Jefferson (7/2-11/2-5/1)
3--Jonjo O'Neill (17/2-13/8*-Evs**)
3--John Wade (2/1*-4/1-4/1)

88/98 winners (89.8%) were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
8--Donald McCain (5/4-5/2-15/8-11/4-7/4-11/10-Evs**-11/10)
7--Phil Kirby (5/2-11/10-11/4-5/4-3/1**-11/4-7/2**)
6--Brian Ellison (6/4-10/11-9/4-2/1**-5/2-11/8)
4--Chris Grant (9/4**-10/3-13/8*-15/8*)
3--Rose Dobbin (13/2-11/2-15/8)
3--Sue Smith (3/1-2/1-9/4)

2.00: Travis County is the youngest horse in the line-up and with (hopefully) more scope for improvement than any of his eight rivals, Tony McCoy’s mount is taken to score. Tony has only ridden one winner for Brian Ellison during the last five years though to be entirely fair, the champion jockey has only partnered four inmates for the trainer. Four of the five favourites (via four renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (2/1 & 11/4) winners.

*

Wolverhampton:

WOLVES (A/W SEASON SAT 26TH OCTOBER TO SAT 29TH MARCH)

No of races: 135
Favourite stats: 48 (35.5%--includes joint/co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 8/19 (42.1%)

Leading trainers at Wolverhampton:
10/45--David Evans (4/1***-4/1-7/2*-22/1-9/2*-5/4*-8/1-9/1-7/2*-7/1)
5/22--Michael Appleby (5/6*-7/2-4/1-5/4*-5/2*)
3/7--Christine Dunnett (9/2-7/2-8/1)
3/7--Saeed Bin Suroor (8/11*-10/11*-2/1*)
3/9--Phil McBride (9/4-50/1-5/4*)
3/13--Alan Bailey (7/4*-20/1-5/1)
3/13-Tom Dascombe (11/10*-7/1-6/4*)
3/13--James Tate (10/3-8/1-8/1)
3/17--Richard Fahey (10/3-11/10*-11/10*)
3/26--Mark Johnston (13/8*-7/1-15/2)
3/30--David O'Meara (16/1-5/1-11/1)

122/135 (90.4%) of winners returned at odds of 12/1 or less to date

Trainers of beaten favourites:
7--David Evans (7/4-2/1-9/4-4/1**-7/2**-4/1**-1/2)
5--Mark Johnston (5/2-Evs-10/3-13/8-11/4)
4--Marco Botti (5/4-13/8-Evs-Evs)
4--James Tate (11/8-5/4-7/4-11/4)
3--Keith Dalgleish (5/2-5/2-2/1)
3--Tim Easterby (6/4-5/2-3/1**)
3--Shaun Harris (2/1-3/1-5/2)
3--David O'Meara (4/6-11/10-9/2)
3--Derek Shaw (9/4**-11/8-3/1**)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/1-8/13-4/11)

2.10: We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals during which time, all five winners carried a maximum burden of nine stones. Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the five contests to date with Silly Billy being the only horse in the line-up this year who possesses ticks in both trend boxes. For the record, Silly Billy’s trainer Brian Ellison landed last year’s contest via a 28/1 chance.

3.40: Three-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals whilst favourites come to the gig on a hat trick. Three market leaders have won via seven renewals during which time, a biggest priced winner of 10/1 emerged.

4.10: Market leaders have secured five of the last nine contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1. All nine winners carried a maximum burden of 9-3.

4.40: Three-year-olds have won three of the four renewals, statistics which include one (2/5) successful favourite.

5.10: Seven contests have slipped by since the last (7/4) favourite obliged.

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WEDNESDAY (04/12):

Catterick:

CATTERICK NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Catterick: 40
Favourite stats: 16 (40.0% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 8/12 (66.7%)

Leading trainers of winners at Catterick in 2013:
4--Keith Reveley (Evs*-1/5*-2/5*-5/1)
3--Simon Shirley-Beavan (10/1-10/3-7/4)
2--Micky Hammond (11/2 & 5/1)
2--Martin Keighley (11/4 & 15/8*)
2--Jojnjo O'Neill (2/1 & 11/4*)
2--John Quinn (10/11* & 4/5*)
2--Michael Smith (6/4* & 8/1)
2--John Wade (4/6* & 15/8*)

37/40 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
6--Donald McCain (3/1-13/8-5/4-15/8-7/4-10/11)
3--Keith Reveley (6/4-13/8-11/4**)
2--John Wade (3/1 & 6/4)
2--Venetia Williams (9/2 & 1/2)

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 1.20: Favourites have secured six victories during the last decade during which time, nine gold medallists have scored at odds of 6/1 or less.

Class 4 extended three-mile handicap chase due to be contested at 2.50: Five renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded, the quintet all priced at odds ranging between 9/2 and 9/1. Six-year-olds have secured three of the last five contests.

Four-year-olds have won five of the seven renewals of the closing bumper event which is scheduled for 3.20.

*

Ludlow:

LUDLOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ludlow: 93
Favourite stats: 37 (39.8%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 8/13 (61.5%)

Leading trainers of winners at Ludlow in 2013 (stats include one dead heat):
9--Evan Williams (17/2-4/1-8/1-9/2-2/1*-5/2-2/1*-2/1*-11/4**)
6--Nicky Henderson (4/5*-7/2-7/4-1/3*-Evs*-6/5*)
6--Venetia Williams (2/1*-9/1-7/2*-13/2-9/2*-9/2*)
4--Philip Hobbs (7/1-15/8*-4/1-10/11*)
4--Richard Lee (4/1*-10/3-11/10*-6/1)
4--Tom Symonds (2/1*-7/1-17/2-9/2)
3--Henry Daly (11/2-5/1-4/11*)
3--Philip Rowley (5/2*-15/8*-16/1)
3--Nigel Twiston-Davies (8/1-9/2-5/6*)

86/94 winners (91.5%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
8--Evan Williams (10/3-4/1**-10/11-4/1***-5/2-3/1**-2/1**-4/1)
7--Nicky Henderson (6/4-10/11-9/4-11/8-8/11-15/8-7/4)
6--Venetia Williams (11/4-15/8-11/8-3/1-7/2-9/4)
3--Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/1-11/8-6/4)

Claiming hurdle event scheduled for 12.40: Six of the seven winners were burdened with a minimum weight of 10-13 during which time, two market leaders have prevailed.

Two and a half handicap chase of the novice variety due off at 1.10: Six-year-olds have won the last three contests. Favourites have won three of the six contests thus far, races which have produced a top priced winner of 8/1. Five of the six winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-2. Evan Williams is the only trainer to have secured two victories thus far, with the trainer hold two options at the time of writing.

Class 4 handicap hurdle over the minimum trip due to be contested at 1.40: Four-year-olds have won the last three (of four) contests. The biggest priced winner to date was sent off at just 4/1 (one successful favourite thus far).

*

Kempton:

KEMPTON (A/W SEASON SAT 26TH OCTOBER TO SAT 29TH MARCH)

No of races: 95
Favourite stats: 27 (28.7%--includes joint/co favourites & 1 Non runner)
Odds on ratio: 5/6 (83.3%)

Leading trainers at Kempton:
4/8--Luca Cumani (16/1-11/8*-7/2-1/6*)
4/23--John Gosden (2/5*-14/1-6/1-8/1)
3/7--James Bethell (9/2-8/1-8/1)
3/7--David Lanigan (5/2-7/4*-9/2)
3/7--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/1-7/2-5/1)
3/10--Charlie Appleby (11/10*-9/4*-4/5*)
3/10--Derek Ivory (8/1-8/1-5/4*)
3/15--Marco Botti (2/1-2/1*-5/1)

79/95 (83.1%) of winners returned at odds of 12/1 or less to date

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
6--John Gosden (6/5-2/1-7/4-15/8-5/4-2/1)
4--Andrew Balding (2/1-5/1-4/1-15/8)
4--James Fanshawe (9/4-9/2-5/2-11/10)
4--William Haggas (11/8-5/4-9/4-5/2)
3--George Baker (15/8-5/2-11/4)
3--Richard Hannon (4/1**-7/2-13/8)
3--David O'Meara (7/2**-11/4***-7/4)

4.20: Three of the five contests have been secured by market leaders. The last five (of six) favourites have all secured toteplacepot positions. Three-year-olds have won all five renewals though that said, only eight older horses have taken on the juniors to date.

4.50: Six of the seven winners of this Nursery event have carried a minimum burden of nine stones. Six gold medallists have scored at odds of 7/1 or less, statistics which include two successful (7/2 & 11/8) market leaders.

5.20 & 5.50 (two divisions): We still await the first successful favourite following eight renewals, the last three winners having scored at 33/1-14/1-10/1.

6.50: Honours are just about even between bookmakers and punters I guess, given that the two successful (9/2 & 10/3) market leaders were recorded alongside gold medallists returned at 16/1-16/1-14/1 to date.

*

Lingfield (A/W):

LINGFIELD (A/W SEASON SAT 26TH OCTOBER TO SAT 29TH MARCH)

No of races: 64
Favourite stats: 20 (31.2%--includes joint/co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 3/8 (37.5%)

Leading trainers at Lingfield:
3/3--Laura Mongan (8/1 three times)
2/3--Charlie Appleby (10/1 & 6/1)
2/3--Willie Musson (5/1 & 3/1*)
2/5--Jim Boyle (5/2* & 5/1**)
2/5--William Haggas (9/2 & 11/4)
2/6--Tom Dascombe (8/1 & 4/5*)
2/8--Simon Dow (5/1 & 5/2**)
2/8--Roger Varian (5/6* & 5/2)
2/9--David Evans (6/1 & 5/2*)
2/10--Andrew Balding (6/1 & 33/1)
2/16--Gary Moore (6/1 & 8/1)
2/17--Richard Hannon (7/1 & 14/1)

52/64 (81.2%) of winners returned at odds of 12/1 or less to date

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--Marco Botti (9/4-7/4**-5/2-Evs)
3--John Gosden (6/4**-4/5-6/4)

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THURSDAY (05/12):

Leicester:

LEICESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Leicester: 38
Favourite stats: 20 (52.6%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 6/8 (75.0%)

Leading trainers of winners at Leicester in 2013:
4--Tom George (7/1-1/4*-13/8*-5/1)
3--John Ferguson (6/5*-8/11*-8/11*)
3--Venetia Williams (2/1*-3/1*-2/1**)

35/38 winners (92.1%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
2--Emma Lavelle (6/4 & 9/4)
2--Fergal O'Brien (5/4 twice)
2--David Pipe (15/8 & 10/3**)

*

Market Rasen:

MARKET RASEN NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Market Rasen: 117
Favourite stats: 45 (38.5%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 14/22 (63.6%)

Leading trainers of winners at Market Rasen in 2013:
10--Charlie Longsdon (6/1-9/2-7/2-5/1-2/1*-3/1*-5/6*-5/6*-1/2*-5/4*)
6--Jonjo O'Neill (4/1**-15/2-11/10*-5/2*-2/1*-8/11*)
4--Peter Bowen (11/2-3/1*-5/6*-3/1)
4--John Ferguson (1/2*-9/2**-8/1-8/13*)
4--Fergal O'Brien (5/1-7/4*-9/1-16/1)
4--Lucy Wadham (9/4**-9/1-7/2-13/8*)

107/117 winners (91.4%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
12--Jonjo O'Neill (7/2**-9/2**11/4-9/4-5/4-5/2-9/2**-5/1**-9/4-5/4-2/1**-15/8**)
5--John Ferguson (4/1**-11/10-11/4-7/4-9/2)
5--Charlie Longsdon (9/4**-3/10*-1/6-15/8**-11/4)
5--Donald McCain (10/11-2/1-3/1-13/8-11/8)
4--Jennie Candlish (2/1-11/4-7/2-5/4)
4--Dianne Sayer (11/10-4/5-11/4-6/5)

*

Wincanton:

WINCANTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Wincanton: 109
Favourite stats: 37 (33.9%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 13/20 (65.0%)

Leading trainers of winners at Wincanton in 2013 (includes one dead heat):
16--Paul Nicholls (6/1-1/3*-17/2-3/1-Evs*-2/1-8/13*-Evs*-3/1-7/4*-4/6*-1/4*-2/5*-7/2-4/5*-11/8*)
7--David Pipe (5/6*-10/1-4/1**-3/1-5/1-7/2-5/2*)
6--Jeremy Scott (25/1-11/8*-7/1-7/1-5/1-9/2)
6--Colin Tizzard (4/1-11/4**-9/1-10/1-11/4-4/9*)
5--Harry Fry (3/1-16/1-5/4*-13/2-5/1)
5--Tom George (6/1-11/5*-2/1*-3/1-3/1)
5--Philip Hobbs (5/4*-Evs*-7/1-9/4*-4/1*)

100/110 of the winners (90.9%) started at 12/1 or less.

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
12--Paul Nicholls (5/2-5/6-3/1-7/2-11/8-9/4-4/9-11/8-Evs-1/3-5/2-11/10)
10--David Pipe (7/2-7/2**-13/8-6/5-11/4**-9/4-7/4-6/1-15/8-6/4)
6--Philip Hobbs (Evs-11/10-7/4-3/1**-7/2**-5/2)
4--Nicky Henderson (6/5-5/4-2/5-4/6)
4--Alan King (3/1**-3/1-5/1**-11/4**)
4--Colin Tizzard (5/2**-7/2**-7/2-4/1)
3--Emma Lavelle (6/4-2/1-11/4**)
3--Jeremy Scott (2/1-9/4-4/1**)
3--Venetia Williams (11/4-8/13-5/4)

Two and three-quarter mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.40: The last ten winners carried a maximum burden of 11-4 during which time, five winners were returned at odds ranging between 16/1 and 50/1. Four five-year-olds won during the study period, accompanied by just two successful market leaders who represented the vintage.

Class 4 ‘Silver Buck’ handicap chase event due to be contested at 2.10: Six of the last eight favourites have won, three of which were trained by Paul Nicholls. Buck’s Bond was Paul’s only option earlier in the week. Five of the last six gold medallists carried weights of 10-10 or less.

Two mile Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.40: Five-year-olds have secured six of the last ten contests, whilst eight winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones. Three joint favourites have obliged though successful clear favourites were only conspicuous by their absence.

Wincanton’s conditional jockeys' event set for 3.10: Favourites have won four of the nine renewals, whilst eight winners were sent off at a top price of 8/1.

*

Wolverhampton:

WOLVES (A/W SEASON SAT 26TH OCTOBER TO SAT 29TH MARCH)

No of races: 135
Favourite stats: 48 (35.5%--includes joint/co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 8/19 (42.1%)

Leading trainers at Wolverhampton:
10/45--David Evans (4/1***-4/1-7/2*-22/1-9/2*-5/4*-8/1-9/1-7/2*-7/1)
5/22--Michael Appleby (5/6*-7/2-4/1-5/4*-5/2*)
3/7--Christine Dunnett (9/2-7/2-8/1)
3/7--Saeed Bin Suroor (8/11*-10/11*-2/1*)
3/9--Phil McBride (9/4-50/1-5/4*)
3/13--Alan Bailey (7/4*-20/1-5/1)
3/13-Tom Dascombe (11/10*-7/1-6/4*)
3/13--James Tate (10/3-8/1-8/1)
3/17--Richard Fahey (10/3-11/10*-11/10*)
3/26--Mark Johnston (13/8*-7/1-15/2)
3/30--David O'Meara (16/1-5/1-11/1)

122/135 (90.4%) of winners returned at odds of 12/1 or less to date

Trainers of beaten favourites:
7--David Evans (7/4-2/1-9/4-4/1**-7/2**-4/1**-1/2)
5--Mark Johnston (5/2-Evs-10/3-13/8-11/4)
4--Marco Botti (5/4-13/8-Evs-Evs)
4--James Tate (11/8-5/4-7/4-11/4)
3--Keith Dalgleish (5/2-5/2-2/1)
3--Tim Easterby (6/4-5/2-3/1**)
3--Shaun Harris (2/1-3/1-5/2)
3--David O'Meara (4/6-11/10-9/2)
3--Derek Shaw (9/4**-11/8-3/1**)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/1-8/13-4/11)

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FRIDAY (06/12):

Sandown:

SANDOWN NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Sandown: 50
Favourite stats: 15 (30.0%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 5/11 (45.5%)

Trainers of winners at Sandown in 2013:
7--Nicky Henderson (7/4-11/10*-9/4*-8/1-11/4-1/2*-1/3*)
6--Paul Nicholls (7/4*-4/5*-7/4*-2/9*-9/2-11/4)
5--Venetia Williams (5/1-11/8*-6/5*-7/2-4/1)
4--Gary Moore (20/1-6/1-5/1-25/1)

40/50 winners (80.0%) sent off at odds of 17/2 or less

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Trainers of beaten favourites:
8--Nicky Henderson (5/2-4/7-5/2-5/2-9/2**-2/1-3/1**-4/11)
7--Paul Nicholls (1/3-2/5-11/4-6/4-11/4-15/8-3/1**)
4--Venetia Williams (5/6-10/3-2/1-11/4)
2--Warren Greatrex (15/8 & 9/2)
2--David Pipe (3/1 & 9/2**)
2--Jeremy Scott (10/3 & 3/1)

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.35: Favourites have won four of the last ten renewals, whilst seven of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. That said, hot favourites at 1/4 and 4/5 have been beaten from a win perspective, albeit the biggest priced winner during the study period was sent off at just 8/1.

Class 3 two and a half mile handicap chase due to be contested at 1.10: The last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13 during which time, three market leaders prevailed.

Grade 2 two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.45: Four and five-year-old’s have secured nine of the last ten renewals, with five-year-olds edging out their younger rivals 5-4 of late. Paul Nicholls (potentially saddled by Saint Roque this time around) has not saddled a winner of the race since snaring back-to-back victories in 2004/05. Although only one favourite has scored via the last six contests, five market leaders have won during the extended study period with the biggest priced winner returned at just 11/2. Seven of the ten favourites secured toteplacepot positions.

Listed ‘Future Stars’ steeplechase scheduled for 2.20: Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last ten renewals with Rolling Aces potentially representing the yard this time around. Seven-year-olds have secured five victories during the study period, whilst four of the last eight favourites have prevailed. Rolling Aces just happens to be a seven-year-old but then again, regular readers will know that Paul Nicholls pays attention to such details.

Class 4 two miles handicap hurdle for novices due to be contested at 3.25: Five-year-old’s have secured three of the last five renewals of Sandown’s scheduled finale. Nine of the last ten winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more, statistics which include the last seven gold medallists. Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have prevailed via nine contests during the last decade.

*

Exeter:

EXETER DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Exeter: 88
Favourite stats: 28 (31.8% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 12/20 (60.0%)

Leading trainers of winners at Exeter in 2013:
10--David Pipe (4/1-4/5*-1/4*-6/1-11/2-9/4*-8/11*-14/1-1/5*-7/1)
5--Paul Nicholls (5/6*-4/9*-6/5-6/1-13/8)
5--Oliver Sherwood (11/4*-11/4-2/1-4/7*-5/1)
5--Colin Tizzard (7/2-7/2-2/1--11/4-5/4*)
3--Susan Gardner (9/4-11/2-5/6*)
3--Martin Hill (18/1-7/1-9/1)
3--Philip Hobbs (6/4*-Evs*-11/4*)
3--Alan King (9/2-4/11*-7/4*)
3--Seamus Mullins (12/1-2/11*-5/2)
3--Jeremy Scott (5/4-4/1-16/1)

78/88 winners (88.6%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less.

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
6--Philip Hobbs (3/1-11/8-6/4-4/5-5/2-9/4)
6--Emma Lavelle (3/1-10/11-2/5-Evs-7/2-5/1)
6--Paul Nicholls (7/5-Evs-6/4-11/5-15/8-Evs)
4--Colin Tizzard (4/1-13/8-11/8-11/10)
3--Vic Dartnell (11/10-11/4-6/5)

Nineteen furlong conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 12.25: The last nine winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include two successful (11/8 & 7/4) market leaders.

Nineteen furlong novice chase event due to be contested at 1.30: Six-year-olds rule the roost as vintage representatives have snared four of the last six renewals. Four favourites have won via nine contests with the biggest priced winner returned at just 15/2. Philip Hobbs is the only trainer to have saddled two winners and Philip’s lone entry earlier in the week was Pistol, with the trainer trying desperately to rid himself of the memory of his representative Fingal Bay (ran out) twelve months ago.

Four mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.05: Some readers might suggest that six nine-year-old winners of this event during the last eleven years can be put down to pure coincidence though if that is so, why do plenty of professionals within the sport suggest that only nine and ten-year-old’s should be seriously considered in the Grand National? The vintage records of the relevant raiders down the years have been proved right via a general rule of thumb whereby I will stick to the principle in this extreme marathon event, albeit only five of the twenty-four five day acceptors were nine-year-olds. No successful favourites were recorded during the study period, with six of the last nine gold medallists being returned in double figures.

Seventeen furlong novice hurdle ‘qualifier’ scheduled for 2.40: Five-year-olds have secured seven victories during the last eleven years, with four-year-old’s ‘mopping up’ three of the other four events. Only two favourites have won during the study period though that said, ten market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

Exeter’s closing bumper event scheduled for 3.45: Four favourites have won via the last nine contests. eight gold medallists were returned at odds of 7/2 or less.

*

Lingfield (A/W):

LINGFIELD (A/W SEASON SAT 26TH OCTOBER TO SAT 29TH MARCH)

No of races: 64
Favourite stats: 20 (31.2%--includes joint/co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 3/8 (37.5%)

Leading trainers at Lingfield:
3/3--Laura Mongan (8/1 three times)
2/3--Charlie Appleby (10/1 & 6/1)
2/3--Willie Musson (5/1 & 3/1*)
2/5--Jim Boyle (5/2* & 5/1**)
2/5--William Haggas (9/2 & 11/4)
2/6--Tom Dascombe (8/1 & 4/5*)
2/8--Simon Dow (5/1 & 5/2**)
2/8--Roger Varian (5/6* & 5/2)
2/9--David Evans (6/1 & 5/2*)
2/10--Andrew Balding (6/1 & 33/1)
2/16--Gary Moore (6/1 & 8/1)
2/17--Richard Hannon (7/1 & 14/1)

52/64 (81.2%) of winners returned at odds of 12/1 or less to date

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--Marco Botti (9/4-7/4**-5/2-Evs)
3--John Gosden (6/4**-4/5-6/4)

*

Wolverhampton:

WOLVES (A/W SEASON SAT 26TH OCTOBER TO SAT 29TH MARCH)

No of races: 135
Favourite stats: 48 (35.5%--includes joint/co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 8/19 (42.1%)

Leading trainers at Wolverhampton:
10/45--David Evans (4/1***-4/1-7/2*-22/1-9/2*-5/4*-8/1-9/1-7/2*-7/1)
5/22--Michael Appleby (5/6*-7/2-4/1-5/4*-5/2*)
3/7--Christine Dunnett (9/2-7/2-8/1)
3/7--Saeed Bin Suroor (8/11*-10/11*-2/1*)
3/9--Phil McBride (9/4-50/1-5/4*)
3/13--Alan Bailey (7/4*-20/1-5/1)
3/13-Tom Dascombe (11/10*-7/1-6/4*)
3/13--James Tate (10/3-8/1-8/1)
3/17--Richard Fahey (10/3-11/10*-11/10*)
3/26--Mark Johnston (13/8*-7/1-15/2)
3/30--David O'Meara (16/1-5/1-11/1)

122/135 (90.4%) of winners returned at odds of 12/1 or less to date

Trainers of beaten favourites:
7--David Evans (7/4-2/1-9/4-4/1**-7/2**-4/1**-1/2)
5--Mark Johnston (5/2-Evs-10/3-13/8-11/4)
4--Marco Botti (5/4-13/8-Evs-Evs)
4--James Tate (11/8-5/4-7/4-11/4)
3--Keith Dalgleish (5/2-5/2-2/1)
3--Tim Easterby (6/4-5/2-3/1**)
3--Shaun Harris (2/1-3/1-5/2)
3--David O'Meara (4/6-11/10-9/2)
3--Derek Shaw (9/4**-11/8-3/1**)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/1-8/13-4/11)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SATURDAY (07/12):

Sandown:

SANDOWN NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Sandown: 50
Favourite stats: 15 (30.0%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 5/11 (45.5%)

Trainers of winners at Sandown in 2013:
7--Nicky Henderson (7/4-11/10*-9/4*-8/1-11/4-1/2*-1/3*)
6--Paul Nicholls (7/4*-4/5*-7/4*-2/9*-9/2-11/4)
5--Venetia Williams (5/1-11/8*-6/5*-7/2-4/1)
4--Gary Moore (20/1-6/1-5/1-25/1)

40/50 winners (80.0%) sent off at odds of 17/2 or less

Trainers of beaten favourites:
8--Nicky Henderson (5/2-4/7-5/2-5/2-9/2**-2/1-3/1**-4/11)
7--Paul Nicholls (1/3-2/5-11/4-6/4-11/4-15/8-3/1**)
4--Venetia Williams (5/6-10/3-2/1-11/4)
2--Warren Greatrex (15/8 & 9/2)
2--David Pipe (3/1 & 9/2**)
2--Jeremy Scott (10/3 & 3/1)

National Hunt Novice Hurdle due to be contested at 12.20: Nicky Henderson has saddled five of the last seven winners of this event with the trainer coming to the gig on this occasion on a five timer. Nicky’s only option at the penultimate entry stage was Vaniteux. Favourites came to the party on a six timer two years ago but the 4/6 market leader could only finish third. Last year’s race reverted to type via a successful even money market leader.

Pertemps series qualifier scheduled for 1.20: Paul Nicholls has saddled the only two successful favourites (within the last five seasons) during the last eleven years. Alan King and Jonjo O’Neill have also saddled two winners in recent times and all three trainers held options for this year’s contest earlier in the week.

Listed Handicap Hurdle event scheduled for 2.25: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 12/1 or less (two winning favourites), whilst four-year-olds have secured four of the last nine contests. Nicky Henderson has saddled two of the last three winners and the trainer held three options at the five day stage.

Twenty nine furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.35: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of eleven stones.

*

Aintree:

AINTREE DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Aintree: 49
Favourite stats: 21 (42.8% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 4/8 (50.0%)

Leading trainers of winners at Aintree in 2013:
6--Nicky Henderson (6/5*-4/11*-1/3*-14/1-10/1-85/40*)
5--Jonjo O'Neill (9/4-7/2**-4/5*-11/4*-11/8*)
3--Peter Bowen (5/2*-5/2*-5/2*)
2--Kevin Bishop (8/1*** & 7/2*)
2--Tom George (7/1 & 10/11*)
2--Philip Hobbs (7/1-11/4)
2--Charlie Longsdon (10/3-6/5*)

40/49 winners (81.6%) were returned at 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
5--Paul Nicholls (5/1**-9/4**-9/1-6/1-Evs)
4--Alan King (15/2-7/2-5/1-4/6)
4--Donald McCain (15/8-3/1**-3/1**-2/1)
2--Nicky Henderson (5/2 & 2/1)
2--Charlie Longsdon (9/2**-9/4)
2--Keith Reveley (5/1**-4/1***)

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 12.05: Favourites have secured two of the six renewals of this event in which four market leaders have finished in the frame. Four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.35: Six-year-old’s have won six renewals of this event during the last eleven years, though five-year-olds have secured three of the last six contests. Six of the last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-5.

‘Becher Chase’ due to be contested at 2.10: Only one market leader has obliged in the last eight years though that said, seven of the last ten contests have been secured by horses sent off at odds of 10/1 or less. Unusually, Paul Nicholls has secured this race three times in the last nine years, whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies has landed two of the last three renewals.

*

Wetherby:

WETHERBY NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Wetherby: 99
Favourite stats: 46 (46.5%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 11/18 (61.1%)

Leading trainers of winners at Wetherby in 2013:
9--Sue Smith (5/1-4/1***-9/2-5/4*-10/3-3/1*-11/8*-15/8*-4/7*)
7--Brian Ellison (7/1-8/13*-11/4-6/4*-15/8*-17/2-25/1)
6--Donald McCain (5/2-13/8*-2/1*-5/2-6/4-3/10*)
5--Kim Bailey (Evs*-9/2-5/6*-3/10*-5/1)

92/99 (92.9%) winners sent off at 12/1 or less to date

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
5--David Pipe (11/8-10/11-8/13-5/2**-8/11)
4--Alan King (5/2-5/2-9/4**-10/11)
4--Donald McCain (3/1**-13/8-5/2-11/4)
3--Malcolm Jefferson (15/8-5/1-11/4)
3--Jonjo O'Neill (5/4-6/4**-9/4)

*

Chepstow:

CHEPSTOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Chepstow: 94
Favourite stats: 30 (31.9%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 8/14 (57.1%)

Leading trainers of winners at Chepstow in 2013:
5--Alan King (2/1*-6/1-3/1-5/2-5/1)
4--Henry Daly (11/4*-5/2-5/4*-5/2**)
4--Martin Keighley (7/2-7/2-10/11*-5/1)
4--Sophie Leech (25/1-4/1-7/2-5/1)
4--Colin Tizzard (9/2-4/1-11/4*-5/1)
4--Evan Williams (3/1-6/1-14/1-10/1)
3--Vic Dartnell (9/2-20/1-7/2)
3--Mark Gillard (9/4* twice & 11/4)
3--Neil Mulholland (6/4*-8/1-8/1)
3--Paul Nicholls (10/11*-10/11*-4/5*)
3--David Pipe (5/1**-5/1-5/1**)
3--Jeremy Scott (6/4**-3/1-4/1)
3--Mark Sheppard (6/4*-9/2**-11/2)

80/94 (85.1%) of the winners scored at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
11--Paul Nicholls (7/4-9/4-11/4-8/11-4/5-11/4-7/4-4/7-11/8-7/4-4/1**)
6--Jonjo O'Neill (5/1**-4/1-7/4-6/4-6/4-5/2)
3--Tom George (2/1-7/2-7/4)
3--Philip Hobbs (6/4**-Evs-2/1)
3--Martin Keighley (2/1-11/4-5/1***)
3--Sophie Leech (9/2-5/1***-9/2)
3--David Pipe (5/2-9/4-5/2)
3--Colin Tizzard (5/1 **-15/8-2/1)
3--Evan Williams (11/4-2/1-6/4)

*

Wolverhampton:

WOLVES (A/W SEASON SAT 26TH OCTOBER TO SAT 29TH MARCH)

No of races: 135
Favourite stats: 48 (35.5%--includes joint/co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 8/19 (42.1%)

Leading trainers at Wolverhampton:
10/45--David Evans (4/1***-4/1-7/2*-22/1-9/2*-5/4*-8/1-9/1-7/2*-7/1)
5/22--Michael Appleby (5/6*-7/2-4/1-5/4*-5/2*)
3/7--Christine Dunnett (9/2-7/2-8/1)
3/7--Saeed Bin Suroor (8/11*-10/11*-2/1*)
3/9--Phil McBride (9/4-50/1-5/4*)
3/13--Alan Bailey (7/4*-20/1-5/1)
3/13-Tom Dascombe (11/10*-7/1-6/4*)
3/13--James Tate (10/3-8/1-8/1)
3/17--Richard Fahey (10/3-11/10*-11/10*)
3/26--Mark Johnston (13/8*-7/1-15/2)
3/30--David O'Meara (16/1-5/1-11/1)

122/135 (90.4%) of winners returned at odds of 12/1 or less to date

Trainers of beaten favourites:
7--David Evans (7/4-2/1-9/4-4/1**-7/2**-4/1**-1/2)
5--Mark Johnston (5/2-Evs-10/3-13/8-11/4)
4--Marco Botti (5/4-13/8-Evs-Evs)
4--James Tate (11/8-5/4-7/4-11/4)
3--Keith Dalgleish (5/2-5/2-2/1)
3--Tim Easterby (6/4-5/2-3/1**)
3--Shaun Harris (2/1-3/1-5/2)
3--David O'Meara (4/6-11/10-9/2)
3--Derek Shaw (9/4**-11/8-3/1**)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/1-8/13-4/11)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SUNDAY (08/12):

Kelso:

KELSO NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Kelso: 74
Favourite stats: 24 (32.4%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 6/13 (46.2%)

Leading trainers of winners at Kelso in 2013:
10--Donald McCain (6/1-4/7*-4/1-8/13*-6/1-7/2-Evs*-5/2*-5/1-5/1)
5--John Wade (20/1-11/1-16/1-14/1-3/1*)
4--Dianne Sayer (6/1-5/1-7/2-7/2)
4--Sue Smith (8/11*-16/1-Evs*-10/3)
3--James Ewart (5/4*-5/6*-25/1)
3--Ferdy Murphy (5/2-12/1-9/1)
3--Nicky Richards (7/4-3/1-5/2)
3--Lucinda Russell (12/1-12/5*-2/1*)

65/74 winners (87.8%) have scored at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
5--D. McCain (Evs-1/4-11/8-15/8-2/1)
4--Phil Kirby (9/2***-15/8-3/1-3/1)
4--Lucinda Russell (Evs-11/10-11/4-9/4)
4--Dianne Sayer (11/4-2/1-7/2-9/4)
3--James Ewart (4/5-5/4-4/1)
3--Pauline Robson (7/4-9/4***-6/5)

*

Warwick:

WARWICK NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Warwick: 51
Favourite stats: 21 (41.2%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 5/8 (62.5%)

Leading trainers of winners at Warwick in 2013:
5--Alan King (Evs*-8/15*-5/2-7/4**-3/1**)
3--Henry Daly (9/4*-5/2*-7/2)
3--David Pipe (1/2*-7/2*-7/4*)
2--Tom George (11/2 & 2/1)
2--Nicky Henderson (7/4* & 9/4*)
2--Philip Hobbs (11/2 & 15/8)
2--Charlie Longsdon (12/1 & 11/8*)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (7/1 & 16/1)
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (5/1 & 1/2*)

46/51 gold medallists (90.2%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
3--Tom George (4/1-10/11-3/1)
3--Charlie Longsdon (7/2-11/8-15/8)
3--Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/1-6/4-2/1)
2--Philip Hobbs (11/4 & 3/1**)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (10/3 & 3/1)
2--Venetia Williams (7/2 & 6/4)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

MONDAY (09/12):

Musselburgh:

MUSSELBURGH NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Musselburgh: 50
Favourite stats: 18 (36.0% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 6/9 (66.7%)

Leading trainers of winners at Musselburgh in 2013:
10--Donald McCain (4/6*-1/5*-5/2-1/5*-17/2-7/4*-7/2-13/2-3/10*-11/10*)
3--Brian Ellison (7/1-9/2-5/1)
3--James Ewart (11/2-4/1-5/1)
3--Venetia Williams (7/2-5/2*-9/4*)

47/50 winners (94.0%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--Donald McCain (5/2-4/9-11/10-10/11)
2--Rose Dobbin (5/4 & 11/4)
2--Brian Ellison (2/1 & 15/8)
2--James Ewart (7/4 twice)
2--Peter Niven (4/1 & 7/4)
2--Nicky Richards (7/2 & 11/4)
2--Lucinda Russell (4/7 & 3/1)
2--Venetia Williams (3/1 & 12/5)

*

Lingfield (A/W):

LINGFIELD (A/W SEASON SAT 26TH OCTOBER TO SAT 29TH MARCH)

No of races: 64
Favourite stats: 20 (31.2%--includes joint/co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 3/8 (37.5%)

Leading trainers at Lingfield:
3/3--Laura Mongan (8/1 three times)
2/3--Charlie Appleby (10/1 & 6/1)
2/3--Willie Musson (5/1 & 3/1*)
2/5--Jim Boyle (5/2* & 5/1**)
2/5--William Haggas (9/2 & 11/4)
2/6--Tom Dascombe (8/1 & 4/5*)
2/8--Simon Dow (5/1 & 5/2**)
2/8--Roger Varian (5/6* & 5/2)
2/9--David Evans (6/1 & 5/2*)
2/10--Andrew Balding (6/1 & 33/1)
2/16--Gary Moore (6/1 & 8/1)
2/17--Richard Hannon (7/1 & 14/1)

52/64 (81.2%) of winners returned at odds of 12/1 or less to date

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--Marco Botti (9/4-7/4**-5/2-Evs)
3--John Gosden (6/4**-4/5-6/4)

*

Wolverhampton:

WOLVES (A/W SEASON SAT 26TH OCTOBER TO SAT 29TH MARCH)

No of races: 135
Favourite stats: 48 (35.5%--includes joint/co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 8/19 (42.1%)

Leading trainers at Wolverhampton:
10/45--David Evans (4/1***-4/1-7/2*-22/1-9/2*-5/4*-8/1-9/1-7/2*-7/1)
5/22--Michael Appleby (5/6*-7/2-4/1-5/4*-5/2*)
3/7--Christine Dunnett (9/2-7/2-8/1)
3/7--Saeed Bin Suroor (8/11*-10/11*-2/1*)
3/9--Phil McBride (9/4-50/1-5/4*)
3/13--Alan Bailey (7/4*-20/1-5/1)
3/13-Tom Dascombe (11/10*-7/1-6/4*)
3/13--James Tate (10/3-8/1-8/1)
3/17--Richard Fahey (10/3-11/10*-11/10*)
3/26--Mark Johnston (13/8*-7/1-15/2)
3/30--David O'Meara (16/1-5/1-11/1)

122/135 (90.4%) of winners returned at odds of 12/1 or less to date

Trainers of beaten favourites:
7--David Evans (7/4-2/1-9/4-4/1**-7/2**-4/1**-1/2)
5--Mark Johnston (5/2-Evs-10/3-13/8-11/4)
4--Marco Botti (5/4-13/8-Evs-Evs)
4--James Tate (11/8-5/4-7/4-11/4)
3--Keith Dalgleish (5/2-5/2-2/1)
3--Tim Easterby (6/4-5/2-3/1**)
3--Shaun Harris (2/1-3/1-5/2)
3--David O'Meara (4/6-11/10-9/2)
3--Derek Shaw (9/4**-11/8-3/1**)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/1-8/13-4/11)

Have a great week,
Mal

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