Weekly Stat Pack

Weekly Stat Pack: 8th to 14th October

8th to 14th October

Weekly Stat Pack: 8th to 14th October

With just ten days until the first meeting at Cheltenham at the time of writing, the shift of power between codes is moving ever closer.

If we conveniently leave Saturday’s Redcar meeting aside, just seven favourites have won via the last thirty-four turf flat races (20.6%) which should suggest that we tread carefully at this time of the year on the level, especially as seven winners during the period were returned at odds ranging between 16/1 and 50/1.

Lady Cecil experiences her first ‘end of season’ campaign and it’s worth noting that her last fifteen runners have been beaten, eight of which were returned at odds of 5/1 or less, statistics which include five beaten favourites.

I am not singling Julie out for any reason other than to remind us all that the best trainers in the land can struggle to find winners at this time of year, highlighted yesterday as the usually reliable Roger Charlton who saddled three beaten favourites (his only representatives) on the day.

It’s worth noting that experienced trainers can give hints regarding where they place their horses at this time of year, with yesterday’s Pontefract meeting being of particular interest.

Of the top six trainers at the course this year in terms of the number of winners they have saddled, only Mark Johnston sent out runners at the west Yorkshire venue on Monday, with established handlers such as Richard Fahey, Sir Michael Stoute, David Barron and Mick Easterby keeping their horses safely tucked away at home.

Mark saddled two of his nine runners to winning effect but even then, level stake investors would have lost out on the day, with Mark also saddling a beaten 8/13 chance to highlight the point I am trying to make.

Tread carefully, and not only because the pavements can become slippery as the days pan out during the month of October!

Don’t forget to log in on Saturday to find the updated details for York following their meeting the previous day.

Day to day analysis:

TUESDAY 08/10:

Brighton:

BRIGHTON DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Brighton: 122
Favourite stats: 53 (43.4%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 13/23 (56.5%)

Leading trainers of winners at Brighton in 2013:
5/8--David Simcock (5/2-9/4-6/4**-3/1-9/4*)
5/13--William Knight (3/1-9/1-9/4-11/8*-7/2*)
4/11--George Baker (11/4*-9/4*-8/1-9/4*)
4/13--James Tate (5/4*-9/4*-4/11*-5/6*)
4/16--George Margarson (6/1-11/8-5/2*-7/2)

116/122 (95.1%) winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--Gary Moore (5/1**-5/2-10/3-15/8)
3--Tony Carroll (3/1-2/1**-9/4**)
3--Luca Cumani (6/4**-6/4-4/7)
3--John Hills (11/10*-7/4-4/5)
3--George Margarson (2/1-2/1-5/4)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (5/4-11/4**-10/11)
3--James Tate (13/8-9/4-5/4)
3--Roger Varian (5/4-9/4-7/4)

*

Catterick:

CATTERICK DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Catterick: 97
Favourite stats: 26 (27.1%--includes joint and co favourites + 1 Non Runner)
Odds on ratio: 5/10 (50.0%)

Leading trainers at Catterick in 2013:
7/22--Mark Johnston (2/7*-3/1-7/4*-4/1-10/11*-4/1-15/8)
7/40--David O'Meara (5/2*-17/2-2/1*-11/4-4/7*-3/1*-11/4)
6/22--Richard Fahey (7/1-Evs*-7/2-5/1-15/8-4/1)
5/28--Ruth Carr (4/1-7/4*-13/2-7/4-22/1)
5/29--Tracy Waggott (9/2*-6/1-7/2-16/1-25/1)
5/48--Tim Easterby (10/1-3/1*-5/2-7/2-9/4)
4/6--James Tate (14/1-9/2-11/2-15/2)
4/34--David Nicholls (7/1-5/1*-15/8*-7/4)

81/97 winners (83.5%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
9--David O'Meara (6/5-9/4-7/4-2/1-9/2**-9/4-7/2-11/8-11/4)
7--David Nicholls (10/3-3/1-11/8-7/2-5/2-6/4-11/4)
4--Mark Johnston (6/4-4/5-15/8-11/10)
3--Michael Dods (3/1-6/1***-9/4)
3--Richard Fahey (6/5-3/1-6/4)
3--Phil Kirby (7/4-7/2-2/1)
3--Sir Mark Prescott (7/2-6/4-6/1***)
3--John Quinn (2/1-13/8-3/1)
3--Kevin Ryan (7/4-6/1***-3/1)

*

Leicester:

LEICESTER (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Leicester: 126
Favourite stats: 49 (38.9% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 11/24 (45.8%)

Leading trainers at Leicester in 2013:
7/34--Richard Hannon (11/4-2/1*-9/4*-5/2**-7/1-25/1-3/1*)
5/9--Roger Charlton (9/4*-9/4*-4/1-5/6*-7/4*)
5/11--Luca Cumani (3/1-1/2*-10/11*-11/10*-11/10*)
4/8--John Gosden (5/4*-5/1-6/5*-9/2)
4/10--David O'Meara (7/1-3/1*-7/2-9/4*)
4/11--Sir Michael Stoute (11/4-11/4-1/2*-5/1)
4/11--Roger Varian (5/2*-8/1-11/4*-3/1)
4/13--Rae Guest (8/1-6/1-5/1-6/4*)
4/16--Mick Channon (5/2-11/10*-2/1*-9/4)

117/126 winners (92.9%) returned at odds of 12/1 or less to date

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--William Haggas (5/2**-11/8-4/5-1/2)
4--Mark Johnston (Evs-7/4-4/7-6/4)
3--Marco Botti (5/2-13/8-4/6)
3--Henry Candy (11/8-11/10-3/1)
3--Richard Hannon (7/4-9/4-4/5)

2.10: Mark Johnston has saddled two of the last four winners (16/1 & 5/1) whilst it’s worth noting that Mark was not represented in the 2010 renewal. Mark has declared a runner in each of the two divisions (first two races on the card). Four of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via eight renewals, albeit we still await the first successful market leader. Although the market leaders have cut little ice in the contest to date, seven of the seven eight medallists ranged between 4/1 and 9/1, whereby bookmakers have not had things all their own way by any means.

3.10: Six of the last fourteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.

3.40: Eight of the last nine winners have carried 8-11 or more which eliminates the bottom four horses if you take the stats seriously. Four of the last twelve winners were priced at 28/1-20/1-12/1-17/2, whilst seven other outsiders priced between 10/1 and 20/1 reached the frame.

4.40: Nine of the last fifteen market leaders have won. It’s worth noting however, that the other six jollies all finished out of the frame, whilst horses priced at 33/1 and 16/1 have claimed toteplacepot positions down the years. Last year’s two runner contest produced something of a ‘shock result’ with the 15/8 winner scoring having been twelve pounds ahead on official ratings and meeting his (2/5) rival on level terms!

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WEDNESDAY 09/10:

Nottingham:

NOTTINGHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Nottingham: 102
Favourite stats: 38 (37.3%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 9/13 (69.2%)

Leading trainers at Nottingham in 2013:
5/9--Luca Cumani (1/2*-5/6*-5/4*-5/1-5/1)
4/5--'Team Burke' (9/4-7/2-10/3-11/4)
4/12--Ralph Beckett (11/1-11/10*-8/11*-3/1)
4/25--Mark Johnston (6/1-11/8*-11/8*-11/8)

90/102 winners (88.2%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--Ralph Beckett (3/1-9/4-2/1-8/11)
4--John Gosden (3/1-1/2-5/2**-9/4**)
3--Lady Cecil (5/2**-85/40-2/1)
3--Luca Cumani (11/10-5/4-9/4)

3.30: The last nine winners have scored at 15/2 or less, statistics which include three successful favourites. Without naming names, top trainers have saddled the winners of this race since the old king died.

5.00: Only one of the last ten favourites has prevailed, whist winners were returned at 33/1-25/1-16/1-124/1-14/1-12/1 during the period. Seven of the last eight gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.

*

Ludlow:

LUDLOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ludlow: 64
Favourite stats: 25 (39.0%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 6/11 (54.5%)

Leading trainers of winners at Ludlow in 2013 (stats include one dead heat):
5--Venetia Williams (2/1*-9/1-7/2*-13/2-9/2*)
3--Nicky Henderson (4/5*-7/2-7/4)
3--Richard Lee (4/1*-10/3-11/10*)
3--Philip Rowley (5/2*-15/8*-16/1)
3--Nigel Twiston-Davies (8/1-9/2-5/6*)

56/65 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
8--Evan Williams (10/3-4/1**-10/11-4/1***-5/2-3/1**-2/1**-4/1)
5--Nicky Henderson (6/4-10/11-9/4-11/8-8/11)
5--Venetia Williams (11/4-15/8-11/8-3/1-7/2)

Juvenile Maiden Hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Three favourites have won via the last ten contests, during which time three gold medallists have scored at 25/1-20/1-11/1. Four of the ten market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

Mares Novice Hurdle scheduled for 2.40: Four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame via seven renewals, statistics which include two winners. The last six gold medallists scored at a top price of 9/2.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 5.10: Evan Williams held one option (On Tour) in the race this year having secured two of the last three contests.. Five-year-olds have won five of the six contests thus far.

*

Towcester:

TOWCESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Towcester: 63
Favourite stats: 24 (38.1%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 7/11 (63.6%)

Leading trainers of winners at Towcester in 2013:
4--Kim Bailey (6/4*-6/4*-7/2*-4/1)
4--Fergal O'Brien (2/1*-8/1-15/8*-11/2)
4--David Pipe (7/4*-4/1-1/2*-13/8*)
3--Nicky Henderson (2/1*-2/11*-9/4)

60/63 winners sent off at a top price of 11/1

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
3--Nicky Henderson (Evs-11/4-15/8)
3--Nigel Twiston-Davies (9/4-11/8-3/1)
2--Kim Bailey (5/4 & 8/13)
2--Philip Hobbs (6/4 & 11/4**)
2--Sophie Leech (9/4 & 5/2)
2--Lucy Wadham (9/2** & Evs)
2--Richard Woollacott (11/4 & 3/1)

Twenty one furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Six-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests, whilst five favourites have obliged during the last seven years. Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Class 5 handicap hurdle over the minimum trip due to be contested at 3.20: Five-year-olds have secured three of the last five contests, whilst three market leaders have prevailed during the last decade.

Class five handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.20 over an extended nineteen furlongs: Five-year-olds have won all three renewals thus far, whilst we still await the first successful market leader.

Three of the last seven winners were returned as favourites in the three-mile handicap chase due to be contested at 4.50. The biggest priced winner emerged at 11/1 three years ago.

The NH Flat Race which closes out the programme has become something of a bookmakers benefit event thus far with three winners scoring at 33/1-22/1-7/2.

*

Kempton:

Ralph Beckett continues to be a trainer to watch out for at Kempton (alongside the more obvious name of Saeed Bin Suroor), with Ralph having sent out sixty-four winners via a 23% strike rate at Kempton during the last five years. Ralph boasts a level stake profit of nearly seventy-eight points during the study period for good measure.

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THURSDAY 10/10:

Ayr:

AYR DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ayr: 95
Favourite stats: 28 (29.5% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 5/7 (71.4%)

Leading trainers at Ayr in 2013:
16/82--Jim Goldie (8/1-13/2-10/3*-16/1-5/1-8/1-7/1-5/1-11/4-7/4-7/1-11/1-9/2-10/1-9/1-12/1)
9/78--Keith Dalgleish (4/1-13/8*-9/4*-8/1-18/1-33/1-14/1-4/5*-11/2)
6/63--Richard Fahey (4/1-10/1-7/2-7/1-7/1-25/1)
5/13--John Quinn (8/1-11/4*-5/1**-5/2*-6/1)
4/20--'Team Burke' (6/5*-9/2-6/5-14/1)
4/28--Tim Easterby (5/2*-11/4**-7/4*-20/1)
4/34--Michael Dods (9/2-15/8*-7/2*-7/2)
4/35--Kevin Ryan (22/1-3/10*-11/8*-7/2)
3/7--Charlie Hills (5/1-11/2-7/4*)
3/21--David Nicholls (11/8*-5/1**-12/1)
3/26--David O'Meara (7/4*-16/1-3/1*)
3/36--Linda Perratt (8/1-7/2*-20/1)
3/36--Mark Johnston (2/1-1/2*-5/2*)

82/95 winners (86.3%) have scored at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
9--Michael Dods (2/1-9/4-3/1**-9/4-5/4-3/1-2/1-5/1**-11/5)
6--Richard Fahey (11/4-10/11-5/1**-10/3-4/1**-10/3)
4--Richard Guest (11/4**-3/1**5/2**-8/1**)
4--Mark Johnston (5/2-10/11-5/4-15/8)
4--Linda Perratt (11/8-5/2-11/4-3/1)
3--'Team Burke' (85/40-13/8-7/2)
3--Mick Easterby (9/4-3/1**-5/1)
3--Sir Mark Prescott (Evs-Evs-15/8)

*

Exeter:

EXETER DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Exeter: 54
Favourite stats: 16 (29.6% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 7/13 (53.8%)

Leading trainers of winners at Exeter in 2013:
5--David Pipe (4/1-4/5*-1/4*-6/1-11/2)
4--Paul Nicholls (5/6*-4/9*-6/5-6/1)
4--Colin Tizzard (7/2-7/2-2/1--11/4)
3--Susan Gardner (9/4-11/2-5/6*)
3--Seamus Mullins (12/1-2/11*-5/2)
3--Oliver Sherwood (11/4*-11/4-2/1)

46/54 winners were returned at odds of 11/1 or less.

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
5--Philip Hobbs (3/1-11/8-6/4-4/5-5/2)
5--Paul Nicholls (7/5-Evs-6/4-11/5-15/8)
2--Emma Lavelle (3/1 & 2/5)
2--Fergal O'Brien (1/2 & 4/5)
2--Jamie Snowdon (4/1 & 7/2)
2--Colin Tizzard (4/1 & 11/8)
2--Venetia Williams (Evs & 3/1)

Nineteen furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Nine of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed, whilst the Pond House (Pipe) team have secured four of the last fourteen renewals. David held one option (Bathwick Man) for the contest at the time of writing.

Novice handicap hurdle over two miles and five furlongs scheduled for 2.50: Two of the six market leaders have finished in the frame via five renewals, statistics which include one successful (joint) favourite.

Class 4 handicap chase over three-mile due to be contests at 3.20: One clear market leader and one joint favourite have prevailed via four contests. The biggest priced winner was sent off at 6/1, whilst two of the five jollies have finished in the money. All four gold medallists were burdened with a maximum weight of just 10-12 to date.

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Three mile beginners’ chase scheduled for 3.50: All five winners have scored at 11/2 or less (one successful favourite).

Class 4 novice hurdle event over seventeen furlongs scheduled for 4.20: Eleven of the last fourteen favourites have won this event, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period before last years 40/1 shock gold medallist was returned at just 100/30. Four-year-olds have won four renewals during the last decade.

*

Worcester:

WORCESTER DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Worcester: 135
Favourite stats: 52 (38.5%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 12/19 (63.1%)

Leading trainers at Worcester in 2013:
15--Jonjo O'Neill (9/1-10/11*-9/2-4/1-6/5*-5/1-13/8*-5/4*-4/9*-7/2-6/5*-5/2*-5/4*-11/4-5/2**)
8--Peter Bowen (3/1*-13/8*-20/1-5/2*-5/4*-2/1-13/8*-12/1)
5--Rebecca Curtis (3/1*-8/13*-2/5*-4/6*-2/1)
5--Donald McCain (13/8*-4/1-8/1-9/4-11/10*)
4--Dr Richard Newland (11/4*-11/8*-10/11*-5/6*)
4--Paul Nicholls (11/8*-11/4-5/2-2/5*)
4--Fergal O'Brien (5/1-7/4*-7/1-3/1*)
4--David Pipe (3/1-4/1-Evs*-11/8*)
4--Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/1-12/1-2/1-5/1)

119/135 winners (88.1%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
14--Jonjo O'Neill (6/1**-7/2-4/1**-6/4-7/4-3/1-15/8-7/4-7/2**-7/2**-15/8-13/8-5/2-3/10*)
5--David Pipe (2/1-15/8-2/1**-Evs-6/5)
5--Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/1-3/1-7/2-11/10-7/4)
4--Peter Bowen (5/2-7/2**-5/4-9/4)
4--Charlie Longsdon (15/8-7/4-7/4**-6/4)
3--Philip Hobbs (10/11-Evs-6/4)
3--Donald McCain (5/4-7/4**-11/10)
3--Paul Nicholls (8/11-10/11-5/4)

*

Kempton:

To add to the names of Saeed Bin Suroor and Ralph Beckett mentioned earlier in despatches in this article relating to the Sunbury circuit, James Fanshawe deserves plenty of praise for his 23% strike rate via forty six winners during the same period. James very nearly matches Ralph’s LSP reading at the time of writing on seventy two points.

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FRIDAY 11/10:

Carlisle:

CARLISLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Carlisle: 39
Favourite stats: 15 (39.5%--includes joint and co favourites & one non runner)
Odds on ratio: 4/7 (57.1%)

Leading trainers of winners at Carlisle in 2013:
4--Alan Swinbank (6/1-10/1-11/10*-6/4*)
3--Tim Easterby (3/1**-15/8*-8/1)
2--Brian Ellison (11/4 & 7/2*)
2--Chris Grant (5/2 & 9/4)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2 & 11/10*)
2--Nicky Richards (1/8* & 10/1)
2--Pauline Robson (Evs* & 5/2)

34/39 winners scored at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
4--Donald McCain (4/9-4/6-7/2-4/1)
3--Lucinda Russell (3/1**-5/2-6/4)
3--Sue Smith (4/1***-9/2-9/2)
2--Andrew Parker (11/4 & 9/4)
2--Alan Swinbank (5/2 & 6/5)
2--John Wade (9/2 & 3/1)

Class 4 seventeen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 5.00: Four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals whist six favourites have prevailed during the last twelve years. Eleven of the last twelve winners have been returned at 13/2 or less.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.30: Donald McCain held one option (Plan Again) at the time of writing in a race he has secured twice in the last six years. Four and five-year-olds have won the last ten renewals (‘juniors’ lead 6-4), though just two favourites have won during the study period, which is a poor ratio in terms of bumper contests.

*

Newton Abbot:

NEWTON ABBOT DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Newton Abbot: 123
Favourite stats: 47 (38.2% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 18/26 (69.2%)

Leading trainers at Newton Abbot in 2013:
13--Jonjo O'Neill (4/1-3/1*-6/1-5/4*-4/1-2/1*-9/2-5/2*-6/4*-11/8*-9/2-9/4*-9/4*)
8--Philip Hobbs (11/4**-12/1-11/1-15/2-11/1-4/11*-11/4*-10/1)
5--Martin Hill (8/1-5/1-9/1-16/1-11/4)
5--Evan Williams (8/1-9/4*-6/1-2/1-7/2*)
4--Jim Best (5/6*-4/6*-7/2-5/6*)
4--Paul Henderson (11/4-11/1-5/1-9/1)
4--Paul Nicholls (1/2*-2/5*-9/4-12/1)
4--Colin Tizzard (2/1**-11/4-11/2-5/2)

115/123 winners (93.5%) to date were returned at 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
10--Paul Nicholls (9/4-6/4-2/1**-2/7-Evs-5/2**-7/4-11/4-5/2**-8/11)
7--Peter Bowen (11/4-5/4-3/1**-11/10-2/1-3/1-3/1)
7--Jonjo O'Neill (5/2**-7/5-11/4-3/1-2/1-3/1-4/7)
5--Colin Tizzard (2/1-9/4-3/1**-6/4-9/4)
4--Philip Hobbs (4/1-4/1-15/8-9/4)
3--David Pipe (11/8-15/8-2/1)

*

York:

YORK DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at York: 101
Favourite stats: 27 (26.7%--includes joint and co favourites + 1 Non runner)
Odds on ratio: 3/5

Leading trainers at York in 2013:
10/63--David O'Meara (5/2-5/1-11/2-11/4*-3/1-6/1-3/1-25/1-8/1-7/1)
8/51--Kevin Ryan (9/2-4/1-14/1-11/4-7/4*-7/1-5/1-3/1)
7/33--William Haggas (4/7*-3/1-10/1-11/4*-4/9*-9/1-3/1*)
7/120--Richard Fahey (10/3*-7/1-25/1-4/1-17/2-7/2*-33/1)
5/14--Sir Michael Stoute (4/6*-13/8*-3/1-15/8*-5/4*)
5/6--Dean Ivory (8/1-11/2-9/2**-5/2-3/1*)
4/30--David Barron (7/1-9/2-8/1-13/2)
3/8--Ian Williams (15/2-14/1-13/2)
3/18--Saeed Bin Suroor (11/10*-4/1-4/1)
3/22--Richard Hannon (9/4*-7/2-2/1*)
3/29--Brian Ellison (8/1-7/1-6/1)

84/101 winners (83.2%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
13--William Haggas (5/1-7/2-15/8-4/1-2/1-2/1-6/4-3/1-6/1**-15/8-4/1-4/1-9/4)
8--Richard Fahey (5/4-9/2**-11/4-5/2-5/1-6/1-11/4-6/1)
4--Mark Johnston (13/8-3/1-7/2-3/1)
3--Mick Easterby (7/2-4/1-5/1**)
3--Richard Hannon (8/13-11/4-6/4)
3--David O'Meara (7/2-5/2-3/1)
3--Sir Michael Stoute (4/1-6/4-7/2)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (9/4-4/5-6/4)

Nursery event scheduled for 2.00: Just one favourite has prevailed via the last ten contests. The last five winners have carried 8-12 or less.

Class 2 mixed vintage handicap scheduled for 3.05: Saeed Bin Suroor held six options at the time of writing in a race he has won twice in the last five years, without a representative in two of the ‘missing’ contests.

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Wolverhampton:

I have been banging the Keith Dalgleish drum relating to racing at Dunstall Park for some time now, especially as Keith’s 19% strike rate (via thirty three winners) have realised a level stake profit of twenty seven points. It’s worth noting that although Keith has held entries over the last few weeks at Wolverhampton, none actually ran whereby his next runners at the track could be worth following.

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SATURDAY 12/10:

Chepstow:

CHEPSTOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Chepstow: 65
Favourite stats: 22 (33.8%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 5/10 (50.0%)

Leading trainers of winners at Chepstow in 2013:
4--Martin Keighley (7/2-7/2-10/11*-5/1)
3--Mark Gillard (9/4* twice & 11/4)
3--Alan King (2/1*-6/1-3/1)
3--Sophie Leech (25/1-4/1-7/2)
3--David Pipe (5/1**-5/1-5/1**)
3--Mark Sheppard (6/4*-9/2**-11/2)
3--Colin Tizzard (9/2-4/1-11/4*)

55/65 (84.6%) of the winners scored at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
6--Paul Nicholls (7/4-9/4-11/4-8/11-4/5-11/4)
4--Jonjo O'Neill (5/1**-4/1-7/4-6/4)
3--Colin Tizzard (5/1 **-15/8-2/1)

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 2.25: Paul Nicholls (potentially represented by Aldopicgros and Keltus on this occasion) has saddled four of the last eight winners. Alan King (Wooly Bully and Chocala) has won the race twice in the last seven years by two of his best juvenile hurdlers during the period, namely Katchit and Franchoek.

Five-year-olds have secured all three renewals this far in the Class 4 novice hurdle event due to be contested at 3.00.

Extended nineteen furlong Class 2 novice chase event scheduled for 3.35: Both favourites have won thus far at 8/13 and 10/11.

Class 2 handicap hurdle due to be contested at 4.15: For Two and Lac Fontana potentially represent Paul Nicholls who has saddled four of the last six winners of this event, with Paul coming to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.

Class 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.45: The last ten winners have carried weights of 11-3 or less whilst seven contests have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded. Evan Williams and Philip Hobbs have both won two renewals during the last six years.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.45: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals during which time, both Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs have saddled two winners.

*

Hexham:

HEXHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Hexham: 64
Favourite stats: 24 (37.5% of races--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 6/8 (75.0%)

Leading trainers of winners at Hexham in 2013:
10--Lucinda Russell (5/2*-13/8*-15/8-11/1-3/1-9/1-15/8*-6/1-13/8*-7/1)
6--Sue Smith (5/1-11/4-10/3-4/1**-7/2-7/2)
3--Rose Dobbin (7/1-4/1-20/1)
3--Ferdy Murphy (5/1-6/1-15/8*)
3--Dianne Sayer (16/1-15/8*-7/2**)

59/64 winners (92.2%) were returned at odds of 11/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
6--Lucinda Russell (13/8-4/1**-5/2**-7/4-7/4-3/1)
6--Sue Smith (9/2-5/1**-11/4-2/1-11/2***-11/2)
3--Tim Vaughan (7/4-7/4-11/4)

Class 4 novice hurdle event for mares scheduled for 2.45: Five of the last six winners have scored at odds of 11/2 or less, stats which include two successful market leaders. Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests.

Class 4 handicap chase over two and a half miles due to be contested at 3.20: Six-year-olds have won three of the last five contests, whilst vintage representatives were only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago.

Maiden hurdle scheduled for 4.30: Six of the seven winners to date scored at 4/1 or less, statistics which include four successful favourites. The other winner was returned at 66/1!

Bumper event scheduled for 5.35: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 4-3 via eight renewals to date.

*

Newmarket:

NEWMARKET (ROWLEY MILE) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Newmarket (Rowley Mile): 89
Favourite stats: 32 (36.0%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 6/6

Leading trainers of winners at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) in 2013:
8/63--Richard Hannon (8/11*-9/1-10/3-10/3--10/11*-12/1-16/1-7/4*)
5/28--John Gosden (11/2-20/1-2/1*-15/8*-11/4)
4/10--Charlie Appleby (6/4*-7/2-9/1-11/4**)
4/14--Sir Henry Cecil (10/1-10/11*-8/1-5/1)
4/48--Mark Johnston (6/1-11/4-4/5*-9/1)
3/9--David Elsworth (6/1-5/2*-4/11*)
3/12--Roger Varian (2/1-4/1-12/1)
3/16--David Simcock (12/1-5/1-5/1)
3/18--Sir Michael Stoute (4/1-11/4*-11/4*)
3/32--Andrew Balding (11/1-15/8*-7/1)

78/89 winners (87.6%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
5--Richard Hannon (4/1-7/2-11/4-11/4-5/2)
5--William Haggas (9/2**-5/1**-7/2**-5/2-5/4)
4--Sir Henry Cecil (15/8-5/2-7/4-15/8)
4--Luca Cumani (13/8-4/1**-3/1-2/1-)
4--John Gosden (Evs-11/4**-3/1-10/3)
4--Sir Michael Stoute (5/4-6/4-5/2-11/10)
3--Lady Cecil (6/1**-10/3-15/8)
3--Charlie Hills (9/2**-11/4-5/1**)
3--Mark Johnston (2/1**-7/2**--11/8**)

Group 2 Challenge Stakes scheduled for 2.05: Three-year-olds have won five of the last six contests. Junior representatives come to the party on a four timer on this occasion. Six of the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 15/2, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Group 1 ‘Middle Park’ scheduled for 2.35: Aidan O’Brien was responsible for seven of the twenty one five day declarations, with the trainer having saddled two of the last nine winners of this event. Aidan won this race with a 25/1 chance two years ago en route to securing a 93/1 double on the card. The other six recent winners scored at a top price of 8/1, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes scheduled for 3.10: Four favourites have won during the last seven years, whilst Aidan O’Brien was responsible for eight of the fourteen declarations earlier in the week.

‘Cesarewitch’ scheduled for 3.50: Eight of the last eleven winners were sent off at a maximum price of 16/1 which suggests that this marathon event is not as much of a lottery as most believe it to be. Two successful favourites (both returned at 9/2) were recorded during the study period. Five of the last seven winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1. That said, last year’s 66/1 winner broke the starting price and weight trends.

Group 2 ‘Rockfel’ scheduled for 4.25: To put the favourite stats of the ’Cesarewitch’ in perspective with its average of thirty odd runners, only the same number of market leaders have won this two-year-old event during the same period. Aidan O’Brien held one option (Sparrow) earlier in the week in a race that Aidan has won twice in the last six years.

Group 3 Autumn Stakes scheduled for 4.55: Favourites have won five of the last nine renewals, though the other contests were won by horses returned at 33/1-20/1-9/1-8/1. Richard Hannon held four options on Monday, the trainer having saddled two of the last ten winners.

Group 3 Darley Stakes scheduled for 5.15: Only one clear favourite has obliged during the last eleven years, with two of the last five winners having been sent off at 50/1 and 25/1.

*

York:

YORK DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at York: 101
Favourite stats: 27 (26.7%--includes joint and co favourites + 1 Non runner)
Odds on ratio: 3/5

Leading trainers at York in 2013:
10/63--David O'Meara (5/2-5/1-11/2-11/4*-3/1-6/1-3/1-25/1-8/1-7/1)
8/51--Kevin Ryan (9/2-4/1-14/1-11/4-7/4*-7/1-5/1-3/1)
7/33--William Haggas (4/7*-3/1-10/1-11/4*-4/9*-9/1-3/1*)
7/120--Richard Fahey (10/3*-7/1-25/1-4/1-17/2-7/2*-33/1)
5/14--Sir Michael Stoute (4/6*-13/8*-3/1-15/8*-5/4*)
5/6--Dean Ivory (8/1-11/2-9/2**-5/2-3/1*)
4/30--David Barron (7/1-9/2-8/1-13/2)
3/8--Ian Williams (15/2-14/1-13/2)
3/18--Saeed Bin Suroor (11/10*-4/1-4/1)
3/22--Richard Hannon (9/4*-7/2-2/1*)
3/29--Brian Ellison (8/1-7/1-6/1)

84/101 winners (83.2%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
13--William Haggas (5/1-7/2-15/8-4/1-2/1-2/1-6/4-3/1-6/1**-15/8-4/1-4/1-9/4)
8--Richard Fahey (5/4-9/2**-11/4-5/2-5/1-6/1-11/4-6/1)
4--Mark Johnston (13/8-3/1-7/2-3/1)
3--Mick Easterby (7/2-4/1-5/1**)
3--Richard Hannon (8/13-11/4-6/4)
3--David O'Meara (7/2-5/2-3/1)
3--Sir Michael Stoute (4/1-6/4-7/2)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (9/4-4/5-6/4)

Listed ‘Rockingham Stakes’ scheduled for 2.55: Ten of the last eleven renewals have been secured by horses scoring at odds of 15/2 or less, stats which include three successful favourites.

Class 2 mixed vintage six furlong handicap scheduled for 3.30: Richard Fahey has saddled silver and bronze medals since securing the previous two renewals in 2007 & 2009. Two of the last four favourites have won at odds of 13/2 and 6/1.

2YO seven furlong maiden event scheduled for 4.10: Mark Johnston and Richard Fahey have both saddled two winners via just four contests to date.

Eighteen furlong handicap scheduled for 4.40: Three and four-year-olds have dominated the contest to date with junior raiders leading 4-2 via seven contests.

*

Wolverhampton:

Although his strike rate and LSP reading are nothing to write home about, it’s as well to cast a second glance at any David Evans runners on the card as surprisingly perhaps, David has sent out more winners at Dunstall Park (95 in total) than any of other potentially represented trainers at the track on Saturday, leading trainers which include Mark Johnston, Kevin Ryan. Tom Dascombe, Sir Mark Prescott et al.

*************************************************************************

SUNDAY 13/10:

Goodwood:

GOODWOOD DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Goodwood: 121
Favourite stats: 44 (36.7%--includes joint and co favourites + 1 Non runner)
Odds on ratio: 8/10 (80.0%)

Leading trainers at Goodwood in 2013:
16/109--Richard Hannon (5/1-1/4*-16/1-8/15*-7/2**-16/1-8/1-11/4-5/4*-5/1*-5/6*-6/1-4/1-11/4-13/2*-25/1)
6/12--William Haggas (15/8-5/1-14/1-12/1-2/1**-9/4)
6/28--Sir Michael Stoute (6/4*-3/1-6/4*-4/1-11/1-2/1*)
6/40--Amanda Perrett (8/1-7/2*-5/2*-8/1-4/1*-9/2)
6/49--Mark Johnston (4/1**-7/1-9/4*-8/1-2/1-13/8*)
3/7--James Fanshawe (3/1-7/1-7/2)
3/12--Jeremy Noseda (12/1-6/4*-4/1**)
3/13--Brian Meehan (9/4*-2/1-11/4*)
3/22--Ed Dunlop (8/11*-6/4*-7/2**)

101/121 winners (83.5%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
14--Richard Hannon (2/1-6/4-5/2-9/4-7/1**-7/4-5/2-6/5-11/10-13/8-7/2-11/4**-13/8-5/2)
6--Sir Michael Stoute (13/8-7/2**-6/4-5/1-3/1-9/4)
4--Charlie Appleby (3/1-5/2-2/1-11/4)
3--Henry Candy (15/8-5/1-4/1)
3--Mick Channon (11/8-9/4-9/2)
3--Roger Charlton (5/1-9/4-7/2)
3--Clive Cox (9/2-9/2**-Evs)
3--David Simcock (15/8-9/4-7/2)

*

Ffos Las (NH):

FFOS LAS NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ffos Las: 95
Favourite stats: 31 (32.6%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 5/11 (45.5%)

Trainers of winners at Ffos Las in 2013:
11--Peter Bowen (3/1**-3/1-7/1-11/4*-5/1-5/2-15/8-9/4*-4/7*-7/4*-9/4)
10--Rebecca Curtis (11/2-4/1-16/1-7/2-4/1-11/10*-5/2-3/1-15/8-6/1)
6--Evan Williams (7/1-7/2-9/4-20/1-5/2-9/4)
5--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2-7/2-3/1-5/1-13/8)
5--David Pipe (3/1-2/1-2/1**-5/1-7/1)
5--Nigel Twiston Davies (5/4*-7/1-4/1-14/1-4/1)

87/95 winners (91.6%) were sent off at odds of 8/1 or less

Trainers of beaten favourites:
8--Peter Bowen (11/4**-9/2-7/4-11/4-11/8-10/11-9/4-5/2)
8--Rebecca Curtis (11/4-4/9-10/11-7/4-7/4-2/1**-11/8-11/4)
8--Jonjo O'Neill (11/8-2/1-5/2-6/4-11/8-11/8-6/5-9/4)
4--David Pipe (9/4-9/4-15/8-7/2)
3--Philip Hobbs (11/8-11/4-5/4)
3--Nigel Twiston-Davies (9/4-3/1-7/4)
3--Evan Williams (7/2-15/8**9/4)

*************************************************************************

MONDAY 14/10:

Musselburgh:

MUSSELBURGH (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Musselburgh: 115
Favourite stats: 40 (34.8%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 8/12 (66.7%)

Leading trainers at Musselburgh in 2013 (includes one dead heat scenario):
10/57--Mark Johnston (2/1*-9/2-9/4*-11/4*-5/6*-1/2*-9/2-8/13*-5/2-16/1)
8/20--Philip Kirby (11/4-7/1-10/1-10/11*-9/4**-3/1*-12/5*-9/2)
8/31--David O'Meara (9/4*-3/1-11/8*-10/3-6/1-3/1-5/1-12/1)
8/44--Richard Fahey (7/2-7/4*-7/2-8/13*-Evs*-5/1****-11/4-11/2)
6/61--Keith Dalgleish (11/5-11/4-10/1-8/13*-10/3-25/1)
5/16--Michael Dods (4/1-6/4*-5/1-9/2*-11/4*)
5/87--Jim Goldie (20/1-10/1-16/1-9/4*-15/2)
4/17--David Barron (7/1-6/4*-3/1-7/4)

106/116 winners (91.4%) have scored at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
9--Mark Johnston (5/2-6/5-5/2-9/4-2/1-5/2-15/8-7/2-3/1)
6--David Nicholls (4/1-9/4**-9/4-11/4-9/2-5/2)
5--Keith Dalgleish (2/1-2/1-Evs-11/8-6/5)
5--Jim Goldie (7/2**-4/1***-2/1-15/8-10/3**)
5--Bryan Smart (11/4-5/2-10/11-11/10-4/1**)
4--Richard Fahey (6/4-6/4-5/1-8/11)
4--Phil Kirby (9/5-9/4-5/1****-11/4)
4--David O'Meara (7/5-13/8-5/6-6/4)
3--Kevin Ryan (4/1-7/4-11/10)

*

Salisbury:

SALISBURY DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Salisbury: 97
Favourite stats: 37 (38.1%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 14/19 (73.7%)

Leading trainers at Salisbury in 2013:
21/76--Richard Hannon (2/1**-1/3*-15/8*-5/2**-4/5*-5/6*-6/1-9/2-3/10*-3/1*-6/1-2/5*-5/4*-4/5*-9/2-4/5*-3/1-8/11*-2/5*-7/1-5/2**)
5/5--Lady Cecil (6/4*-4/1-1/3*-11/8-8/11*)
4/15--Sir Michael Stoute (7/1-5/2**-5/1-7/2*)
4/28--Andrew Balding (3/1*-9/2-9/2-12/1)

87/97 winners (89.7%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
11--Richard Hannon (6/4-9/4**-4/6-7/4-11/10-7/4-5/4-3/1-4/11*-9/4-3/1)
5--Luca Cumani (9/4-11/4**-2/1-12/5-5/6)
3--Ralph Beckett (4/1***-9/4-5/2**)
3--Henry Candy (4/1***-5/2-3/1)
3--Clive Cox (9/4-11/8-11/4)
3--William Haggas (9/4-11/4**-10/11)
3--Amanda Perrett (7/2-11/4-9/2)
3--Sir Michael Stoute (2/1-Evs-1/2)

*

Windsor:

WINDSOR DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Windsor: 158
Favourite stats: 68 (43.0%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 15/31 (48.4%)

Leading trainers at Windsor in 2013 (includes one dead heat scenario):
21/90--Richard Hannon (6/1-11/4*-Evs*-1/10*-9/4-8/11*-3/1*-7/4*-4/6*-4/9*-3/1-3/1-5/1-5/4*-5/4*-6/4*-4/6*-1/16*-2/5*-2/1*-8/11*)
8/27--Andrew Balding (14/1-7/2*-14/1-10/1-16/1-5/2**-11/4*-8/1)
5/15--William Haggas (15/8*-1/2*-11/4*-6/1-13/8*)
5/18--Jeremy Noseda (4/1*-2/1-2/1*-5/4*-15/2)
5/19--John Gosden (16/1-1/2*-11/4-5/6*-5/1)
5/29--William Muir (5/2-8/1-5/1-9/2-9/4*)

139/159 winners (87.4%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Trainers of most beaten favourites:
16--Richard Hannon (7/2***-8/11-7/2**-7/4-3/1-5/6-5/6-11/10-5/6-6/5-5/6-5/2**-5/6-4/6-5/4-11/10)
6--John Gosden (13/8-9/4-7/4-2/1-8/11-Evs)
5--Roger Charlton (6/4-5/4-8/13-7/4-11/10)
5--Sir Michael Stoute (2/1-7/4-6/4-7/4**-9/4**)
4--Andrew Balding (7/4-5/2**-9/4-3/1)
4--Hughie Morrison (6/4-3/1-7/2***-10/11)
4--Jeremy Noseda (9/4**-Evs-8/11-5/6)

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