Weekly Stat Pack: 9th to 15th April 2013

Weekly Stat Pack: 2nd to 8th April

Weekly Stat Pack: 2nd to 8th April

Now that the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals are behind us, we can concentrate (mainly) on the level and this week I offer the current standings in the three-year-old handicap sector this calendar year.

This should act as a guide to which trainers have been ‘doing this business’ since the turn of the year, whilst I also offer a comparison to the corresponding figure for the second Tuesday morning of April in 2012.

The final list relates to the same sector in racing as far as the morning of 1st June 2012.  This should act as a guide in general terms relating to early season trainer form.

9--Mark Johnston (9), David Simcock (0)

7--Marco Botti (1)

5--Chris Dwyer (0), Ed Dunlop (1), David Evans (7), James Tate (0)

4--Richard Hannon (2), Ron Harris (0), Robert Mills (0), Jeremy Noseda (0), Jamie Osborne (6), Bryan Smart (1)

Trainers who had saddled a decent number of winners in the three-year-old handicap sector this time last year (this year's figures in brackets):

5--Mick Channon (2)

4--Rae Guest (1)

3--Keith Dalgleish (0), Tom Dascombe (1), Richard Fahey (3), John Gosden (2), Sylvester Kirk (0), Hughie Morrison (0), Ian Williams (0), Ian Wood (0)

 

Number of 3YO Handicap winners by the end of May in 2012, giving you a guide on the progress of trainers throughout the first part of the season.  The number of successful favourites are offered in brackets:

23--Mark Johnston (13)

13--Richard Hannon (2)

11--Mick Channon (3)

10--Richard Fahey (2)

9--Kevin Ryan (2)

7--Michael Bell (4), David Evans (1)

6--Sylvester Kirk (2), Hughie Morrison (3), Jamie Osborne (3)

5--Rae Guest (0), Richard Guest (0), Ian Williams (4) 

Day by day analysis this week: 

This was ‘Easter week’ last year whereby not too many of the meetings correspond with last year’s calendar. 

 

TUESDAY:

Pontefract: 

One third (9 winners/27 races) of the market leaders won during the first four meetings at Pontefract last season, statistics which include joint and co favourites.  22/28 winners (one dead heat) were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.  Tim Easterby (20/1-9/1-10/3--see the comment in the 4.15 event) saddled three winners during the study period, with Elaine Burke (9/1 & 7/4*), James Given (9/2 & 16/1) and Henry Candy (9/2* & 5/2*) all securing two victories.

2.10: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the seven contests thus far.  Horses carrying weights of 8-10 or less have claimed 12 of the 20 (including winners at 20/1-16/1-11/1-10/1) available toteplacepot positions to date.  Four of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) via seven renewals, statistics which include two winners.

3.10: Five of the six horses to have secured each way positions thus far have carried a maximum burden of 8-11, whilst two of the three favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via two renewals.

3.40: Five of the last seven winners have carried a minimum of 9-2, statistics which support those of you considering the top seven (of the fifteen) runners.  Seven of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners at 5/2 and 2/1 within the last four years.

4.15: Tim Easterby will remember this race from twelve months back as his two (20/1 and 9/1) representatives dead heated in this event.  Both horses were six-year-olds and wouldn’t you just know it, Tim has declared his vintage raider Silvery Moon this time around.  All three favourites had finished in the frame to date (one winner) before last year’s 7/4 market leader finished out with the washing.

4.45: James Tate has scored with four of his last eleven runners and Macaabra might continue the good run on behalf of the stable.  Seven of the fourteen favourites have troubled the judge (five winners) via thirteen renewals.

Carlisle: 

CARLISLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013

Number of races at Carlisle: 32

Favourite stats: 10 (31.2%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/5 (40.0%)

Trainers of winners at Carlisle in 2013:

3--Alan Swinbank (6/1-10/1-11/10*)

2--Tim Easterby (3/1** & 8/1), Brian Ellison (11/4 & 7/2*), Jonjo O'Neill (9/2 & 11/10*), Nicky Richards (1/8* & 10/1), Pauline Robson (Evs* & 5/2)

 

28/32 winners scored at odds of 12/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites (One favourite was withdrawn at the start):

3--Donald McCain (4/9-4/6-7/2), Lucinda Russell (3/1**-5/2-6/4), Sue Smith (4/1***-9/2-9/2)

2--Andrew Parker (11/4 & 9/4), Alan Swinbank (5/2 & 6/5)

 

Southwell:

Brian Ellison saddled eleven winners on the flat during April/May last year (5/6 spilt) and the trainer has his team in good order at present.  Brian boasts a 22% strike rate via sixty five winners here at Southwell during the last five years, statistics which have produce ten points of level stake profit.

 

WEDNESDAY: 

Catterick:

One third (9 winners/27 races) of the market leaders won during the first four meetings at Catterick last season, statistics which include joint and co favourites.  Tim Easterby led the way with three winners (11/4*-5/2**-25/1), with Ruth Carr (12/1 & 5/1) and Paul Midgley (22/1 & 16/1) chipping in with a brace apiece during the study period.  Nineteen of the twenty seven winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

2.00: Five renewals had slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded before last year‘s 4/1 market leader obliged. Nine of the last ten winners have scored at 8/1 or less.  Six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-12 to victory.

3.20: David Nicholls has saddled three winners via just six renewals to date, with Rio Cobolo representing the yard on this occasion.  That said, the last four winners have all carried 9-1 or more.

3.50: Three-year-olds have won nine of the last contests, whilst three clear market leaders have scored during the last decade alongside one joint favourite.  The last six winners have been returned at 15/2 or less.

4.20: This is the second division of the 3.20 contest, with David Nicholls set to be represented by Mujaadel on this occasion.  Three of the five runners saddled by Michael Dods at Newcastle on Saturday won (1520/1 treble) and the trainer in next represented on Wednesday here at Catterick and at Nottingham.

4.50: Four successive favourites (of one description or another) had won (including three five-year-olds) before last year’s 25/1 gold medallist rocked the boat.  Brian Ellison (Knightly Escapade & Royal Opera) and Alan Swinbank (Anna’s Arch) have both saddled two winners of this event within the last eight years.

 

Nottingham:

Mick Channon led the way via the first four meetings at Nottingham last year by saddling three (7/4-10/3-10/3**) winners.  Paul Midgley (3/1* & 11/1) and Willaim Muir (7/2* & 9/2) saddled two winners during the study period.  Eight of the twenty seven races were won by market leaders, with twenty two gold medallists sent off at odds of 9/1 or less.

2.40: Just one (13/8) favourite has obliged via the last eight renewals of this handicap event, with three winners returned in double figures at 33/1-14/1-14/1.  Six of the last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2.

3.10: Favourites have won six of the last ten contests with the biggest priced winner being returned at 9/1 during the period.

3.40: Favourites have won four of the last nine renewals during which time, four-year-olds have scored four times.  Nicky Henderson creates a ‘double first’ here as the trainer has not saddled a runner here at Nottingham since the old king died, whilst Andrea Atzeni takes his first ride for the Seven Barrows stable.

4.10: The last seven favourites have all been beaten whilst the last five gold medallists were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-1.

5.10: The three winners to date have scored at 14/1-10/1-7/1, all three winners having carried 8-13 or less.

 

Kempton: 

Ralph Beckett has his team in fine each way form at present and with the trainer boasting a 22% strike rate at the track (alongside an LSP figure of sixty six points), Ralph’s runners demand close attention at the Sunbury circuit.

 

Lingfield: 

Plenty of claiming jockeys rack up early winners via their allowance but Robert Tart’s 25% strike rate here at Lingfield suggests we are witnessing the emergence of a rare talent.

 

THURSDAY: 

Ludlow:

LUDLOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ludlow: 42

Favourite stats: 16 (38.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/8 (50.0%)

Trainers of winners at Ludlow in 2013 (stats include one dead eight):

5--Venetia Williams (2/1*-9/1-7/2*-13/2-9/2*)

3--Nicky Henderson (4/5*-7/2-7/4), Richard Lee (4/1*-10/3-11/10*)

2--Paul Nicholls (11/2 & 7/4*), Philip Rowley (5/2* & 16/1), Tom Symonds (2/1* & 17/2), Nigel Twiston-Davies (8/1 & 5/6*)

 

36/43 winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5--Venetia Williams (11/4-15/8-11/8-3/1-7/2)

3--Nicky Henderson (6/4-10/11-9/4), Evan Williams (10/3-4/1**-10/11)

2--John Ferguson (5/4 & 2/7), Donald McCain (4/1** & 3/1), Paul Nicholls (5/2 & 11/4)

 

Wincanton: 

WINCANTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Wincanton: 45

Favourite stats: 15 (33.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 5/9 (55.5%)

 

Trainers of winners at Wincanton in 2013:

6--Paul Nicholls (6/1-1/3*-17/2-3/1-Evs*-2/1)

3--Harry Fry (3/1-16/1-5/4*), Tom George (6/1-11/5*-2/1*), David Pipe (5/6*-10/1-4/1**), Colin Tizzard (4/1-11/4**-9/1)

2--Seamus Mullins (3/1 & 10/3), Jeremy Scott (25/1 & 7/1), Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/4* & 12/1)

 

 

40/45 winners started at 10/1 or less.

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

8--Paul Nicholls (5/2-5/6-3/1-7/2-11/8-9/4-4/9-11/8)

6--David Pipe (7/2-7/2**-13/8-6/5-11/4**-9/4)

4--Colin Tizzard (5/2**-7/2**-7/2-4/1)

3--Philip Hobbs (Evs-11/10-7/4)

2--Karen George (4/1** & 6/4)

2--Nicky Henderson (6/5 & 2/5)

 

Novice hurdle event for mares scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds have won three of the five contests to date which favourites come to the gig on a five timer.

 

Fontwell: 

FONTWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Fontwell: 21

Favourite stats: 8 (38.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/5 (60.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Fontwell in 2013:

2--Evan Williams (10/1 & 1/2*), Venetia Williams (1/5* & 10/11*)

 

20/21 winners to date started at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Charlie Longsdon (11/8-13/8-7/2)

2--Kevin Bishop (9/2** & 13/8), Paul Nicholls (5/6 & 7/4)

 

Kempton: 

Four of Rod Millman’s last nine runners have won (9/1-9/1-9/2-7/2) alongside two placed horses (one of which was a 16/1 chance--the other was beaten by a head) and Rod’s LSP reading of thirty one points here at Kempton makes for interesting reading when the trainer is in such fine form.

 

FRIDAY: 

Wetherby: 

WETHERBY NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Wetherby: 35

Favourite stats: 18 (51.4%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/4

 

Trainers of winners at Wetherby in 2013:

4--Sue Smith (5/1-4/1***-9/2-5/4*)

3--Brian Ellison (7/1-8/13*-11/4), Donald McCain (5/2-13/8*-2/1*)

2--Caroline Bailey (6/1 & 85/40*), Tim Easterby (3/1 & 9/4*), Anthony Honeyball (8/1 & 13/8**), David Pipe (2/1 & 12/5*), John Wade (2/1* & 7/2)

 

34/35 winners sent off at 8/1 or less to date

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Donald McCain (3/1**-13/8-5/2), David Pipe (11/8-10/11*-8/13*)

2--Tom George (9/4 & 11/4), Malcolm Jefferson (15/8 & 11/4)

 

Chepstow: 

CHEPSTOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Chepstow: 43

Favourite stats: 15 (34.9%--includes joint and co favourites)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Odds on ratio: 4/9 (44.4%)

 

Trainers of winners at Chepstow in 2013:

3--Colin Tizzard (9/2-4/1-11/4*)

2--Vic Dartnall (9/2 & 7/2), Mark Gillard (9/4* twice), Martin Keighley (7/2 twice), Sophie Leech (25/1 & 7/2), Donald McCain (1/7* & 5/2), Seamus Mullins (28/1 & 7/2), Paul Nicholls (10/11* & 4/5*), David Pipe (5/1** & 5/1**), Jeremy Scott (6/4** & 4/1), Michael Scudamore (10/1 & 20/1), Mark Sheppard (6/4* & 11/2)

 

36/43 winners scored at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5--Paul Nicholls (7/4-9/4-11/4-8/11-4/5)

2--Rebecca Curtis (11/8 & 11/4), Bernard Llewellyn (9/4 & 3/1), Jonjo O'Neill (5/1** & 6/4), David Pipe (5/2 & 5/2), Colin Tizzard (5/1 ** & 2/1), Venetia Williams (10/11 & 5/6)

 

Lingfield: 

John Ryan’s runners are going well at this early stage of the season and two of his six entries this week were on this card at Lingfield where John boasts an LSP reading of thirteen points via the same number of winners during the last five years.

 

Wolverhampton: 

Ted Durcan continues to struggle to find rides despite his LSP reading of forty points at Dunstall Park.  Ted was already booked to ride Spirit Of Parkes at this meeting at the time of writing for Eric Alston, a trainer who saddled early season winners more often than not.

 

SATURDAY: 

DONCASTER: 

DONCASTER (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Doncaster: 16

Favourite stats: 6 (37.5%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio:1/1

 

Trainers of winners at Doncaster in 2013:

4/20--Richard Fahey (14/1-11/2-7/2-4/1**)

1/1--Ismail Mohammed (8/1**)

1/1--Bill Turner (5/1)

1/2--Pat Eddery (4/1)

1/2--Brain Ellison (9/2*)

1/2--Richard Hannon (6/1)

1/2--Jim Goldie (15/8*)

1/2--Mark Johnston (7/4*)

1/3--Tony Carroll (8/1)

1/5--Charlie Hills (5/6*)

1/6--John Quinn (20/1)

1/7--Mick Easterby (16/1)

1/7--Scott Dixon (14/1)

 

12/16 winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten trainers:

3--John Gosden (2/1-13/2-2/1)

2--John Quinn (2/1 & 6/1)

 

Class 2 six furlong handicap due to be contested at 3.30: Four and five-y7ear-olds have (equally) shared the eight renewals to date during which time, two 5/1 favourites have scored alongside winners returned at 66/1-40/1-33/1-16/1-16/1-6/1.

Class 4 handicap over ten and a half furlongs scheduled for 4.05:  Seven of the eleven each way/toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying nine stones or more, statistics which include three (6/1-3/1-7/4*) of the four winners.  The other gold medallist (carrying 8-6) was returned at 12/1.

 

Stratford: 

Nigel Twiston-Davies leads the potentially represented trainers at the course with twenty three winners during the last five years, gold medallists which have amassed forty points of level stake profit for Nigel during the period.

 

Uttoxeter: 

UTTOXETER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Uttoxeter: 14

Favourite stats: 6 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Uttoxeter in 2013:

2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (85/40 & 9/4*)

 

11/14 winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Donald McCain (3/1 & 2/1)

 

Kempton: 

James Fanshawe was due to have his first runners out since January on Saturday at the time of writing, with Miss Dashwood being his only potential runner at this meeting, Villoresi having been booked in at Doncaster.  James boasts a 24% strike rate (via thirty nine winners in recent years) at the Sunbury circuit which is backed up by an LSP reading of seventy points.

Juvenile event scheduled for 1.35: Richard Hannon (9/4* & 7/2**) and David Evans (12/1 twice) have both saddled two winners during the seven renewals to date.   Richard held four entries earlier in the week against David’s lone entry. Two clear market leaders have won alongside Richard’s success joint favourite in 2010.

Four-year-olds lead the five year-olds 7-2 via the last nine renewals of the Listed ‘Snowdrop’ event due to be contested at 3.15.  Seven of the last eight winners have scored at odds of 7/1 or less during which time, three market leaders prevailed.

Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the seven renewals of the London Mile Qualifier (handicap) on the card which is scheduled for 3.50.  The last five winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones.

Queen’s Prize (5.00): Four-year-olds have won five contests during the last decade during which time, four favourites have obliged.

 

SUNDAY: 

Ffos Las: 

Anothony Honeyball held sixteen entries between Thursday and Sunday this week, three of which were on this card at a venue where the trainer boasts a ratio of 5/12.  Anthony’s 36% strike rate has yielded fourteen points of level stake profits. 

FFOS LAS NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ffos Las: 42

Favourite stats: 15 (35.7%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/6 (33.3%)

 

Trainers of winners at Ffos Las in 2013:

6--Rebecca Curtis (11/2-4/1-16/1-7/2-4/1-11/10*)

5--Evan Williams (7/1-7/2-9/4-20/1-5/2)

3--David Pipe (3/1-2/1-2/1**)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2 & 3/1), Nigel Twiston Davies (5/4* & 4/1)

 

39/42 winners were sent off at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

6--Rebecca Curtis (11/4-4/9-10/11-7/4-7/4-2/1**)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (11/8 & 5/2), Evan Williams (7/2 & 9/4)

 

Market Rasen: 

Of Nicky Henderson’s twenty one potential runners this week (up to and including Sunday), just one was earmarked for Market Rasen at a venue where Nicky has recorded a 41% strike rate via sixteen winners during the last five years.  Thirteen points of level stake profit has been realised during the period and the relevant horse on this occasion is Tiller Belle, who was due to contest the 5.10 event (Mares Bumper) at the time of writing.  

MARKET RASEN NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Market Rasen: 21

Favourite stats: 9 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/6

 

Trainers of winners at Market Rasen in 2013:

2--Charlie Longsdon (6/1 & 7/2)

 

15/21 winners were returned at odds of 13/2 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Charlie Longsdon (9/4** & 1/6), David O'Meara (2/1 * 9/4**), Jonjo O'Neill (7/2** & 11/4)

 

MONDAY: 

Newcastle: 

It’s worth noting that Michael Dods was one of the few trainers to saddle a couple of winners during the first four meetings at Newcastle last year and sure enough, Michael landed a 1520/1 treble at Newcastle on Grand National day! 

NEWCASTLE (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Newcastle: 7

Favourite stats: 2 (28.6% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/1

 

Trainers of winners at Newcastle in 2013:

3/5--Michael Dods (25/1-12/1-7/2**)

1/2--Tony Coyle (10/1)

1/2--Brian Ellison (4/1)

1/2--Richard Fahey (8/1)

1/2--Alan Swinbank (5/2**)

 

Five of the seven winners to date were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Kevin Ryan (8/13 & 7/2**)

 

Redcar: 

REDCAR DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Redcar: 7

Favourite stats: 2 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Redcar in 2013 (includes one dead heat):

1/1--Ron Barr (15/2)

1/1--David Nicholls (7/4*)

1/1--Richard Fahey (7/2)

1/2--David Barron (11/4**)

1/2--Jim Goldie (2/1)

1/2--John Quinn (7/2)

1/4--Richard Guest (15/2)

1/4--Paul Midgley (9/1)

 

All eight winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less

 

Windsor:

Only four favourites obliged via the first four meetings (twenty eight races) at Windsor last season, albeit twenty one winners scored at odds of 9/1 or less.

Thirteen of the twenty eight winners emerged from just five stables, namely Andrew Balding (7/2*-2/1-5/2), Sir Michael Stoute (12/1-5/1-11/4), Richard Hannon (7/1-13/2-6/1), Ralph Beckett (15/2 & 9/2) and Jim Boyle (33/1 & 6/1).

Richard Hannon saddled six of the first ten two-year-old winners at the track, whilst the first twelve juvenile winners at Windsor last year were returned at odds of 13/2 or less.

Throughout the entire season at the alternative royal venue, thirteen favourites obliged via twenty seven juvenile contests, eleven of which were won by horses saddled by Richard Hannon via thirty five representatives.  That said, Richard saddled six beaten favourites in this sector of the sport, whilst William Haggas suffered reversals at odds of 5/4 and 6/5.

Only two juvenile races were contested where the front three horses in the market all finished out of the frame, whilst 18/27 winners emerged from the relevant trio in the betting.

Of the first twenty two-year-old winners during the course of the season, only one gold medallist went on to score ‘next time out’.

Your first 30 days for just £1
2 replies
  1. Mark J says:

    A fantastic amount of work goes into this and you share it with us for free – thank you very much! Yet more great value from geegeez…..

    Mark J

  2. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Cheers Mark J…Part of the reason that I put so much work in is because the readers on this site appear to genuinely appreciate the effort. Have a great week. Mal.

Comments are closed.