Well, I Declare! 10th to 14th July 2012

Well I Declare, 10th to 14th July 2012

Well, I Declare! 10th to 14th July 2012

Well, I Declare! 10th to 14th July 2012

To lose last week’s meetings was bad enough but any abandoned venues towards the end of this week would be awful given the wonderful bill of fayre on offer.

I have highlighted three two-day meetings, notwithstanding the three-day ‘festival’ known as Newmarket’s famous ‘July’ extravaganza.

Not only do we want racing to be staged but we also require plenty of sunshine in the week to give punters a chance against the old enemy.

Good luck with all your wagers:

My day-to-day offerings:


TUESDAY 10/7:

Pontefract:

General stats: Super Simon represents Paul D’Arcy at the meeting, the trainer having saddled three of his five runners at Pontefract to winning effect.

2.30: Two clear market leaders and one co favourite have won in the last fourteen years.  Seven of the nineteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the period.

3.30: Kevin Ryan won the first three renewals of this event before last year‘s contest when the stable was not represented!  Kevin has declared Twilight Allure this time around. Three of the four market leaders (statistics include two winners) have finished in the money thus far.

4.00: Six of the nine favourites have won with the biggest priced gold medallist having been returned at 17/2.

4.30: Eleven of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-0 or more, which effectively eliminates the bottom four horses in the handicap if we eliminate Barkston Ash who looks sure to plummet in terms of his burden via the pilot’s claim.  Just one favourite has obliged during the study period, whilst only five of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

5.00: Three-year-olds have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals of this event and vintage representatives come to the party on an eight-timer.  Ten of the last fifteen favourites have won (including six of the last nine), whilst four other market leaders have finished second down the years.

5.30: Horses carrying 9-1 or less have secured five of the eight available win and place positions, statistics which include all three (12/1-5/1-3/1) winners.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Gary Moore saddles his newcomer Dutch Masterpiece at the meeting, boasting a 32% strike rate via eleven winners during the last five years.

7.05: One favourite has obliged via six renewals to date, though four of the six gold medallists were returned at odds of 7/2 or less.  Three favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

7.35: Six of the nine available toteplacepot/each way positions have been secured by three-year-olds which is invariably the case in these all aged maiden events at this time of year.  Both winners representing the junior vintage scored at 11/2.

8.35: We still await the first successful favourite following four renewals during which time, all four winners have carried weights of 9-4 or more.

9.05: Three of the five favourites have finished in the frame by winning their respective events via four renewals.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Mizbah is the only runner sent over by Saeed Bin Suroor from Newmarket on Tuesday, the trainer having saddled seventeen winners at Wolverhampton in recent times which equates to a 30% strike rate.  

 

Uttoxeter:

General stats: Course winner Executive’s Hall represents Ben Haslam who has saddled two of his three runners at Uttoxeter to winning effect.

 

WEDNESDAY 11/7:

Catterick:

General stats: With none of the represented trainers boasting out of the ordinary figures at Catterick on Wednesday, it might be worth trusting in the mounts of Graham Gibbons, the jockey boasting level stake profits of one hundred and seventeen points during the last five years. 

2.50: Seven of the eleven favourites during the last decade have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.  All ten winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

3.20: Five favourites have won during the last decade, whilst six market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.

3.50: Tim Easterby comes into the contest on a hat trick, represented by Blue Shoes on this occasion.  Seven of the last twelve favourites have secured win and place positions, statistics which include three gold medallists. Nine winners during the last decade carried weights of 8-13 or less.

4.20: Four-year-olds have won half (4/8) of the contests to date, whilst just one (joint) favourite has obliged thus far.  Winners sent off at 28/1-18/1-14/1-10/1-9/1-8/1 have turned this contest into a nightmare event for investors in general terms.   Four of the nine market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

4.50: Just to rub salt into the wounds of punters, this is the second division of the previous event on the card whereby same sorry stats apply.

5.20: Sir Mark Prescott has secured both renewals thus far and the trainer is represented by The Baronet this time around.

 

Yarmouth:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott leads the way at this Yarmouth meeting having saddled thirteen of his last fifty-two runners to winning effect, an exact strike rate of 25%.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Five of the last thirteen runners saddled by Saeed Bin Suroor at the time of writing had won, with the trainer boasting a 34% strike rate at the Sunbury venue of late.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Panettone is only Roger Varian’s seventh runner at Lingfield, the trainer boasting a 50% strike rate via his previous raiders.

 

Worcester:

General stats: If any track in the land was going to be flooded last weekend, I guess that Worcester would have marked up as the 7/2 favourite despite the number of ‘runners’!  Hoping that racing can take place however, I pass on news that Anthony Honeyball enjoys a 38% strike rate at the venue, boasting seventy points of level stake profits for good measure. 

 

THURSDAY 12/7:

Newmarket (July):

Stats from the three-day meeting last year:

21 races

Favourite details (23 market leaders): 3 winners--11 placed--19 unplaced

Both (Aidan O’Brien trained) odds on favourites were beaten at 8/13 & 5/6

Eighteen of the twenty-one winners were returned at 14/1 or less

Other gold medallists scored at 50/1-25/1-16/1

Sir Michael Stoute led the way with three winners (9/2-4/1-11/4*), with Richard Hannon (25/1 & 2/1) and Mahmood Al Zarooni (14/1 & 9/1) snaring two apiece.

Richard Hannon saddled three beaten favourites, whilst Jeremy Noseda and Brian Meehan sent out two beaten market leaders.

Toteplacepot returns:

Thursday: £282.80 (average dividend over the last ten years: £578.98)

Friday: £129.60 (average dividend over the last nine years: £697.68)

Saturday: £5,251.00 (average dividend over the last nine years: £2,365.21)

Group 3 ‘Bahrain Trophy’ scheduled for 1.20:  Five clear favourites and two joint market leader have won during the last fifteen years.  Twelve of the seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period. Nine winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less during the last decade.

2YO ‘July Stakes’ scheduled for 2.20: Seven favourites have won during the study period, whilst nine of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last fifteen years.

Class 3YO handicap over ten furlongs scheduled for 2.25: Five renewals have slipped by since the last favourite won this event, the gold medallists during those year being returned at 40/1-25/1-11/1-7/1-7/1. Nine of the sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot dividends during the last fourteen years (two winners).

Group 2 Princess of Wales event scheduled for 3.00: Sir Michael Stoute has won this event five times during the last twelve years and Fiorente was his only option earlier in the week.  Just one favourite has scored in the last fifteen years, whilst seven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the period.

Juvenile maiden event over six furlongs for fillies scheduled for 3.35: Five favourites have won this event during the last decade, whilst nine of those winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

3YO Conditions event over a mile scheduled for 4.05: Three of the six favourites has finished in the frame to date (one winner) via five renewals whilst it’s worth casting our minds back to last year when the 5/6 market leader finished last of five.

Five furlong Class 3 handicap scheduled for 4.40: Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst three favourites have won during the last decade.

 

Doncaster:

General stats: Mark Buckley’s Liberty Ship was the only potential stable winner engaged this week at the time of writing, though the course and distance winner has gained all three success on decent ground thus far, whereby I guess the going will play a big part in his possible participation.  If he gives the green light, Mark will be attempting to saddle his fourth Doncaster winner via just nine runners, a ratio which has produced eleven points of level stake profits thus far.

 

Epsom:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott’s 42% record at Epsom in recent times are partly due to the trainer’s impressive 4/7 figures via his juveniles during the last five years.

 

Folkestone:

General stats: William Knights’ three-year-olds are worth following at this venue given the trainer’s 4/9 ratio with vintage representatives down the years.  Three-year-old Sambirano was William’s only potential runner on the card earlier in the week.  The Kyllachy newcomer will presumably start at a reasonable price if offered the green light.

 

Warwick:

General stats: Sir Henry Cecil boasts a recent strike rate of 42% at Warwick in recent years, securing the think end of sixteen points of level stake profit into the bargain.  Henry held two entries at the venue earlier in the week. 

 

FRIDAY 13/7:

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Newmarket (July):

Seven furlong 3YO handicap for fillies scheduled for 1.20: Thirteen of the last fifteen winners of this opening contest have all carried weights of 9-0 or less. Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race during the last fifteen years, whilst eleven of the twenty-one market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Heritage handicap over six furlongs scheduled for 1.50: Horses carrying weights of 8-13 or less have claimed twenty-six of the last available thirty-six toteplacepot positions, including eight of the relevant nine winners.  Three favourites have won in the last fifteen years, whilst seven of thesixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process. The last nine favourites have all been beaten, though four of those market leaders finished in the frame.

‘Cherry Hinton’ scheduled for 2.25: Six of the last eleven favourites have won whilst eleven of the sixteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

‘Falmouth Stakes’ scheduled for 3.00: Three-year-olds have won nine of the last 15 renewals of this Group 1 event.  Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last fourteen years, whilst ten of the fifteen jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Seven furlong juvenile maiden scheduled for 3.35: Richard Hannon has saddled three of the last seven winners at 25/1-6/1-7/2.  Five clear favourites and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  Nine of the nineteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  In the last nine years, horses starting at 6/1 or less have secured six renewals, whilst claiming five additional place positions via a total of twenty-two recent representatives.  Horses starting at 16/1 or more have claimed just six place positions via eighty-one representatives.

3YO maiden event over ten furlongs scheduled for 4.10: The market (usually such a good guide here on the July course) has been of no use in recent times because Meydan City drifted like the proverbial barge before winning four years ago whilst the two of the last three winners have won at 66/1 and 25/1.  Last year’s 8/13 market leader was quite easily dismissed by the 9/2 second favourite. The last seven favourites have all been beaten in this toteplacepot finale though four of the market leaders snared place position in races won by horses starting at 66/1-25/1-14/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-9/2.

All aged seven furlong handicap contested over a mile scheduled for 5.20: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-6.

 

Chepstow:

General stats: John Spearing invariably saddles winners in July and his 26% record here at Chepstow in recent seasons suggests that John could add to any successes he might have recorded earlier in the week. Aside from John, Sir Mark Prescott’s runners always demand plenty of respect.

 

Chester:

Stats from the two day meeting last year:

14 races:

Favourite details (16 market leaders): 5 winners--5 placed--6 unplaced

The only odds on favourite won at odds of 10/11

Thirteen of the fourteen winners were returned at 9/1 or less, the other 25/1 gold medallist being trained by Chester ‘specialist’ Mark Brisbourne.

Northern based trainers (making hay while southern based handlers were focusing on Newmarket and Ascot) saddling two winners each were Mark Johnston, Kevin Ryan, Richard Fahey and Bryan Smart, the latter named handler having secured a 29/1 double on Saturday.

Kevin Ryan saddled three beaten favourites

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £316.70 (average dividend over the last ten years: £164.00)

Saturday: £2,752.40 (average dividend over the last ten years: £407.57)

 

Hamilton:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott held six options for Friday’s meeting at Hamilton, albeit four inmates were involved in the scheduled 8.50 event, a Class 6 twelve furlong three-year-old handicap. Mark boasts a 44% strike rate at Hamilton during the last five years.

 

Newbury:

Last year‘s meetings were staged in different weeks separated by eight days:

14 races:

Favourite details (19 market leaders): 4 winners--3 placed--12 unplaced

The only odds on favourite finished last of four at odds of 5/6

Six of the fourteen winners ranged between 10/1 and 100/1

The only trainers to saddle two winners were Richard Hannon (16/1 & 5/4*) and Sir Michael Stoute, the latter named handler having secured a 10/1 double on Saturday 16th July 2011.

Hughie Morrison saddled two beaten favourites

At the Friday meeting (8th July) twelve months ago, only one of the eight favourites pertaining to the toteplacepot finished in the frame and even then, the even money market leader finished second in a ‘short field’ event behind the 100/1 winner.

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £11,004.10

Saturday: £203.70 (average dividend over the last nine years: £3,121,49)

 

York:

Stats from the two-day meeting last year:

14 races:

Favourite details (15 market leaders): 3 winners--6 placed--6 unplaced

Both the beaten odds on favourites were returned at 10/11 (Richard Fahey & Kevin Ryan)

Thirteen of the fourteen winners were returned at 14/1 or less, the other gold medallist scoring at 66/1.  Nine winners scored at a top price of 6/1.

The only trainer to saddle two winners was William Haggas (6/1 & 7/4*)

No trainer saddled more than one beaten favourite

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £170.20 (average dividend over the last four years: £824.07)

Saturday: £64.20 (average dividend over the last ten years: £660.39)

 

SATURDAY 14/7:

Newmarket (July):

General stats: Mahmood Al Zarooni has secured over fifty-six points of level stake profits already despite only producing a modest 18% strike rate at the track. 

‘Superlative Stakes’ scheduled for 1.40: Seven of the fifteen favourites have claimed win and place positions during the study period (five winners).

‘Bunbury Cup’ scheduled for 2.10: Eight of the last nine winners carried weights of 9-1 or more in this Class 2 event’.  The last seven favourites have all been beaten (the race being won by horses returned in double figures in each instance), whilst seven of the seventeen market leaders have reached the frame.

‘July Cup’ scheduled for 2.40: Seven of the last nine favourites have finished out of the frame, whilst just two favourites have won during the last decade.

Class 2 three-year-old handicap contested over a mile scheduled for 3.20: The last six winners have carried 9-1 or more.  Two favourites have prevailed during the last 14 years, whilst eight market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Six furlong Conditions event for juveniels scheduled for 3.55: Richard Hannon comes to the gig on a hat trick and the trainer was responsible for four of the twenty penultimate stage entries, horses which included the well touted Jalaa (also entered in a race at Newbury on Saturday) who disappointed many investors (including yours truly) in Royal Ascot’s Chesham Stakes a few ago.  Two of the three favourites to date have finished in the frame without winning their respective events.

Nursery event scheduled for 4.30: Paul Cole comes into this Nursery event on a hat trick, though things have conspired against the trainer it seems.  COMPOSED was Paul’s only entry at the five-day stage, though it’s worth pointing out that at the time of writing, Paul was waiting to saddle his first winner on turf this season following 50 runners to date.  Paul has also drawn a blank from 22 juvenile representatives thus far.  Six of the 10 market leaders have reached the frame (four winners) in the scheduled toteplacepot finale.

Class 3 all aged handicap contested over a twelve furlongs.  Eight winners (during the last decade) of the final event of the three-day July meeting have carried weights of 9-6 or more, whilst successful favourites have only been conspicuous by their absence.

 

Chester:

General stats: It is difficult to look at a Chester card these days without thinking of owner Dr Marwan Koukash who has led twenty-eight horses into the area reserved for the winner at Chester during the last five years.  Level stake investments would be showing twenty-five points of profit in recent times.

 

Hamilton:

General stats: Three of the last five horses saddled by Elaine Burke had won at the time of writing, with the other two horses finishing in the frame for good measure.  Elaine boasts a strike rate of 25% at Hamilton in recent times, winners which have yielded a level stake surplus of twenty-five points.

 

Newbury:

General stats: Top Boy might look outclassed given his recent Royal Ascot demise but it’s worth bearing in mind his four and a half-length second to Sir Prancealot on his penultimate start, especially as trainer Derek Shaw has saddled two of his four runners at Newbury to winning effect.  A minimum stake each way investment at odds of 66/1 or more might provide some fun.

Juvenile Conditions event over seven furlongs scheduled for 2.00: Richard Hannon comes into the opening race on a four-timer.  Richard held four options for the contest earlier in the week.  Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have prevailed in the last fourteen years.  Twelve of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

One mile handicap event for fillies scheduled for 2.35: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer, whilst two of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (one winner).

‘Hackwood Stakes’ scheduled for 3.10: Five favourites have won during the last fourteen years with nine market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.

Super Sprint contest scheduled for 3.50: Richard Hannon has claimed four gold and two silver medals via the last nine contests in this ‘Super Sprint‘, whilst also saddling four fourth placed horses for good measure.  One clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored via the last thirteen contests.  Five of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

All aged Listed event over ten furlongs scheduled for 4.20: Only seven three-year-olds have contested the last five renewals but three vintage representatives have prevailed.  Seven of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years (four winners).

Three-year-old Conditions event over seven furlongs scheduled for 4.55: Although two of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, we still await the first successful market leader after four contests.

Two mile Class 4 handicap scheduled for 5.30: Four-year-olds have won three of the four renewals thus far.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: With just four winners on the board at the time of writing, Richard Price would not be winning a race out of turn just now.  Two of his last seven runners have gone close of late however and Richard’s 28% strike rate at Salisbury catches the eye.

 

York:

General stats: Sylvester Kirk (3/11) and Rae Guest (2/5) are two trainers to keep on the right side if bookmakers/layers are feeling generous relating to the sport on the Knavesmire on Saturday. 

2 replies
  1. steve says:

    excellent stats as always you boys certainly no your stuff…i appreciate all the hard work
    i am a keen form student-and spend countless hours going through stats and racecards
    —today thecornishcockney 3.45 wolv on a very attractive mark-down in class-and 13/2 vc looks far to big….i believe the horse should be nearer the 7/2 mark in this contest.. has the form in the book if you go through the horses recent races….e/w steal

    • Mal Boyle
      Mal Boyle says:

      Cheers Steve…feedback is so useful to us and letting us know we are on the right track makes the work all worthwhile.

      Good luck with your selection today, would certainly not argue against your comments!

      Mal….

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