Well I Declare, 11th April 2012

Well I Declare

Well I Declare including Aintree

Well I Declare--Grand National Week! 

TUESDAY: 

Pontefract: 

General stats: Jimmy Fortune has three booked rides at a venue where the jockey boasts recent stats of 26% via nine winners, which have produced a level stake profit of twenty seven points.  Polly Holder (3.50) is Paul Darcy’s only runner on the card, the trainer having saddled three of his five runners at Pontefract to winning effect during the last five years.  

2.20: Horses carrying weights of 8-10 or less have claimed 11 of the 15 (including winners at 16/1-11/1-10/1) available toteplacepot positions to date

4.25: Richard Fahey comes into the contest on a hat trick and the trainer held two options at the five-day stage and now relied on Las Verglas Star.  Horses carrying weights of nine stones or less have secured seven of the nine available toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include all three winners at odds of 16/1-9/1-9/4. These stats suggest that Splendid Light could take the beating, especially as trainer John Gosden has saddled five of his seventeen runners to winning effect in recent years.

4.55: Six of the thirteen favourites have troubled the judge (four winners) via 12 renewals. 

Yarmouth: 

General stats: Trainer George Baker boasts a 24% strike rate at Yarmouth and his only runner on today’s card is Final Delivery in the 3.40 event. 

Southwell:

General stats: Daryll Holland has two rides on the card having ridden sixteen winners at the track in recent times which have yielded an LSP figure of nearly forty points. 

WEDNESDAY: 

Catterick: 

General stats: Paul Cole sends just one horse on the long journey north on Wednesday when Joy To The World contests the 4.00 event.  Paul has saddled two of his seven runners to winning effect at the venue during the last five years. 

2.00: Five renewals have slipped by since a winning favourite was registered, albeit eight of the last nine winners have scored at 8/1 or less, stats which include two successful market leaders. Level £100 stake losses on favourites during the period would have amounted to £482.50. 

Nottingham: 

General stats: Frankie Dettori has four booked rides at Nottingham at the time of writing and with the former champion boasting a 35% record at the track during the last five years, his mounts are worth keeping on the right side.  Lesotho (3.10) is Noel Quinlan’s only runner on the card, the trainer having saddled two of his six runners at Nottingham to winning effect thus far. 

2.10: David Evans saddled three successive winners of this event before a 9/4 stable representative was beaten by a head in the contest twelve months ago.  David potentially saddles his recent Wolverhampton winner Dreamy Ciara this time around.

2.40: Favourites have won six of the last nine contests with the biggest priced winner being returned at 9/1 during the period.

3.10: Four of the last five winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more to victory whilst just one favourite has prevailed via the last seven contests.

3.40: Four-year-olds had won four successive events before last year’s contest when the vintage was not represented.

5.10: All seven recent contests have been won by horses carrying weights of 9-5 or less whilst winning favourites have been conspicuous by their absence during the last six years. 

Kempton: 

General stats: Super Duplex (9.00) was Ian Mongan’s only booked ride at the time of writing with the jockey have produced an LSP figure at Kempton of seventy eight points. 

Lingfield: 

General stats: It is extremely rare for a jockey who has ridden the thick end of seven hundred horses at a venue (during the last five years) to be able to boast a level stake profit, though Jim Crowley has managed that feat via ninety two ‘recent’ winners at Lingfield. 

THURSDAY: 

Folkestone: 

General stats: Rod Millman (30% strike rate) and Laura Morgan (29%) are two trainers to respect at Kent’s only racecourse.  

Juvenile event scheduled for 2.10: Richard Hannon has won three of the last nine contests and his only entry earlier in the week was Lucky Suit with Ryan Moore already booked to ride the Red Clubs debutante.  Six of the nine renewals have been secured by favourites with the biggest priced winner being returned at 8/1 two years ago.  Level £10 stake profits via market leaders during the period would have amounted to £55.22.

Apprentice handicap scheduled for 5.35: Six of the seven winners carried weights of 9/2 or less whilst just one (joint) favourite has prevailed thus far.  

Aintree: 

General stats: Restless Harry could be the each way call against Big Bucks in the opening event of the three day meeting given that Robin Dickin has saddled three of his last five runners to winning effect, notwithstanding a silver medallist into the bargain.  Add the fact that Robin has saddled three winners via just six runners at Aintree in recent times and a potential 20/1 win and place contender emerges from the Big Bucks mist!  James Bethel (2/3) and Martin Keighley (2/7) are two other names to consider from the trainer ranks, given that entries were in place at the time of writing. 

 

General stats: Peter Bowen is on the cold trainer list at present but his LSP figure of well into three figures at the track suggests you leave his outsiders out of the mix to your potential peril.  For all that Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson dominate stats all over the land, both trainers ‘only’ boast a 14% strike rate here at Liverpool confirming just how competitive the racing is at the Merseyside venue.

 

Big Bucks has won the last three renewals of the opening event of the three day Grand National meeting. Aggregate winning distance during the period: eleven lengths.

Class 1 4YO juvenile hurdle event: Favourites have won six of the last seven contests, the only market leader beaten during the period having finished third, securing a toteplacepot position in the process.

Grade 1 three mile one furlong steeplechase scheduled for 3.05: Just one favourite has prevailed during the last decade though that said, eight winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

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Foxhunters event scheduled for 3.40: Last year’s successful 3/1 favourite was only the second market leader to oblige during the last decade.  That said, nine winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Grade 3 two mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.15: The last six (and nine of the last ten) winners carried a maximum weight of 11-1.  Only one (co) favourite has prevailed during the last six years.

Grade 1 two and a half mile novice chase scheduled for 4.50: We still await the first successful favourite via three contests thus far, the last two market leaders having finished second in their respective events.

Three mile Grade 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 5.25: The last favourite obliged back in 2002, whilst eight of the nine subsequent gold medallists were sent off at priced ranging between 10/1 and 50/1.  All ten winners carried weights of 11-1 or less.  

Newton Abbot (meeting transferred from Taunton): 

General stats: Jim Best boasts a 24% strike rate at Newton Abbot and the trainer held four options at the track earlier in the week. 

 

Selling handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Favourites (one clear and one joint) have won both renewals to date.

Nineteen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.30: Paul Nicholls (two entries at the time of writing) has won with his only two runners in the race thus far.

Nineteen furlong handicap hurdle contest scheduled for 4.40: Five-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals.  Favourites have secured four of the eight contests during the study period, the biggest priced winner being returned at 9/1.

Three and a quarter mile Hunter Chase scheduled for 5.15: Six renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being registered. 

Wolverhampton: 

General stats: Keith Dalgleish is beginning to saddle winners at lots of different venues, though his runners here at Wolverhampton demand plenty of attention.  Jockeys with very good LSP records here (with booked rides at the time of writing) include Joe Fanning, Tom Queally, Raul De Silva and Andrea Atzeni. 

FRIDAY: 

Leicester: 

General stats: Amazing Amoray was David Barron’s only entry (scheduled to contest the 3.30 event) on the card at a track where David has saddled four winners from just ten representatives.  Frankie Dettori leads the strike figures at 39% in the jockey sector.

 

Juvenile event scheduled for 2.20: Four favourites have won during the last decade (£100 level stake profits of £287.50) during which time, eight winners have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less.

3YO six furlong selling event scheduled for 2.55: Six of the last nine favourites have won with eight winners being returned at odds of 9/2 or less.  £100 level stake profits would have amounted to £933.41 during the period.

Class 4 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 3.30: All six winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less (two successful market leaders).

Six furlong Conditions event scheduled for 4.40: Three of the last five favourites have obliged.  

Aintree: 

Grade 2 novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds come to the party on a four timer, vintage representatives having won seven of the last nine contests.  Just one favourite has prevailed during the last decade.

Grade 2 ‘Mildmay’ novices event scheduled for 2.30: All ten winners during the last decade scored at odds of 7/1 or less, stats which include three success market leaders.

Nine-year-olds have won four renewals of the Grade 1 ‘Melling Chase’ (scheduled for 3.05) during the last decade during which time, five favourites have obliged, though just one of the last six contests has been secured by a market leader.

‘Topham Chase’ scheduled for 3.40: Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 10-5 or less, whilst Peter Bowen has declared Always Waining who has won this race in each of the last two years.  Peter has saddled the winner of the race three times in the last five years at odds of 25/1-22/1-14/1.  It’s also worth noting that Peter Saddled Always Waining to finish fourth at 25/1 (securing a toteplacepot position) in 2009.

Three mile Grade 1 novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.15: Six-year-olds had won three successive renewals before vintage representative could only manage to snare the silver and bronze medals last year at odds of 28/1 and 4/1!  The last five winners have scored at 33/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-9/1 with two of the five market leaders missing out on toteplacepot positions in the process.  Two market leaders have won during the last decade.

Mares Listed bumper event scheduled for 5.25: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via seven renewals to date during which time, just one favourite has obliged.  Three of the last four winners have scored at 28/1-25/1-20/1. 

Sedgefield: 

General stats: Not much information to report other than ‘occasional visitors’ Mel Brittain and William Kinsey have both saddled two winners from five runners in recent times.

Two winning favourites (11/4 & 7/4) were accompanied by gold medallists which were  returned at 20/1--10/1--9/1--8/1--8/1 on last year’s inaugural card. 

Wolverhampton: 

General stats: William Knight (28% strike rate) and Gerard Butler (23%) have both produced positive LSP figures in recent times. 

SATURDAY: 

Newcastle: 

General stats: Richard Guest has saddled far more turf winners here at Newcastle than at any other flat venue and having saddled ten winners last month, Richard’s declarations are worth a second glance.

 

This is a new meeting though it’s worth reporting that William Buick was already book to ride three potential runners for John Gosden on the card.  Robert Winston was also ‘jocked up’ early for several different trainers. 

Aintree: 

General stats: Just forty eight horses stood their ground at the five day stage in the Grand National, with only eleven runners from last year still involved.  

Grade 2 novice hurdle scheduled for 1.45: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick, vintage representatives having secured four of the last eight contests.  Only two favourites (one clear and one joint) have won during the last decade, though seven winners were sent off at odds of 9/2 or less.

Listed handicap steeplechase scheduled for 3.25: Just one favourite has obliged via the last nine contests, with four of the last six winners returned in double figures.  Six of the eleven market leaders during the last decade have secured toteplacepot positions.  Six of the last seven winners have carried a maximum weight of eleven stones.

Grand National scheduled to be contested at 4.15: Two joint and one clear favourite have won the Grand National in the last seven years which is a great record in such a competitive event.  Nine winners during the last decade have carried weights of 11-1 or less down the years which is par for the course down the years.  Nine and ten-year-olds continue to dominate the contest, with the ten-year-olds leading 4-2 as far as the last six contests are concerned.  Vintage representatives have secured eleven of the last sixteen available toteplacepot positions.  Last year’s winning trainer Donald McCain was winning his first Grand National with his seventh runner in the race and given the record of his much missed father, it’s doubtful if we have seen the last McCain winner of this prestigious event.

Conditional/amateur riders event scheduled for 5.05: All three favourites have finished out of the money behind winners returned at 66/1-14/1-11/1.

Grade 2 closing bumper event scheduled for 5.45: Five-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests during which time just one (6/5) favourite emerged.  Recent winners have scored at 66/1-50/1-33/1-28/1-25/1-12/1 during the study period. 

Chepstow: 

General stats: Jennie Candlish (24% strike rate producing forty two points of level stakes profits) leads the way relating to trainers who were due to be represented at the meeting. 

Two mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.35: Favourites have won four of the six renewals to date.  

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 5.50: Eight-year-olds have won three of the six contests thus far.  Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed.

Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last five winners of the closing bumper event (scheduled for 6.20), the same number of winning favourites during the period.  Yes you are spot on, Paul saddled the three successful market leaders! 

Lingfield: 

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor’s terrific 55% strike rate (via thirty four winners) stands out from the crowd. 

One mile Listed event scheduled for 3.05: Four favourites have won during the last decade during which time, seven winners have scored at odds of 4/1 or less.

3YO six furlong maiden event scheduled for 3.40: Favourites (of one description or another) have won three of the last four contests.  The last ten winners have scored at odds of 7/1 or less.

Class 5 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 5.15: We still await the first successful favourite to be registered following six renewals.

Class 6 mile and a quarter handicap scheduled for 5.45: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer, whilst all five winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-1.  

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Mark Johnston held nine options for the meeting earlier in the week at a venue where he continues to top the tree (24% strike rate) as far as regular trainers at Dunstall Park are concerned.

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