Well I Declare: 4th September

Well I Declare: 11th to 15th September

Well I Declare: 11th September

Well I Declare: 11th September

Fortunately it has been a quiet week at Boyle Towers since I last offered a service which is just as well, given the staging of the Doncaster St Leger meeting this week and here are last year’s stats from the meeting for your perusal:

28 races--32 favourites--8 winners--13 placed--11 unplaced

Richard Hannon was the only trainer to secure three successes which were recorded at 7/1, 7/1 & 7/2.  Richard saddled a 35/1 double on the opening day, a feat only copied by Saeed Bin Suroor on the final day of the meeting who scored with 13/2 and 7/2 gold medallists which equates to the thick end of a 33/1 double.

Other trainers who saddled two winners during the course of the four-day fixture were John Gosden (15/2 & 9/2), Paul Midgley (9/1 & 7/1) and John Oxx (11/2 & 11/4).

Negative stats relating to beaten favourites applied to Kevin Ryan, John Gosden and Brian Meehan, the three trainers all saddling two ‘casualties’ apiece.

 

Juvenile race stats and facts:

10 races--12 favourites--4 winners--5 placed--3 unplaced

The only odds on favourite all week was a juvenile at 8/15 which duly obliged.

The trainers of the four successful favourites were David Wachman, John Gosden, Saeed Bin Suroor and Roger Varian.

Brian Meehan’s two beaten favourites at the meeting were in the two-year-old sector.

Richard Hannon was the only trainer to saddle two winners in two-year-old races (7/1 & 7/2).

Eight of the ten winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less, the other two gold medallists being sent off at 12/1 & 20/1. 

Thirty one horses were sent off at 22/1 or more without securing a victory.  Three reached the frame (exact science)--28 unplaced.

Street Cry was the only sire to secure two victories in the juvenile sector.

The ten winners hailed from the following foaling months:

5--March

3--April

1--January

1--February

 

Toteplacepot returns last year:

Wednesday: £134.30 (average return of £273.19 during the last nine years)

Thursday: £911.40 (£365.96)

Friday: £193.40 (£533.75)

Saturday: £209.80 (£406.17)

 

Looking at the bigger picture during the period (Tuesday to Saturday inclusive) of the corresponding St Leger week from last year, the following trainers who saddled at least three winners at all racecourses were as follows:

12--Richard Hannon (All prices down the line from 2/1* to 9/1)

6--Mark Johnston (14/1--12/1--10/1--7/1--9/4**--2/1*)

5--Mahmood Al Zarooni (9/1--5/1--2/1*--15/8*--13/8*)

3--Mick Channon (8/1--7/1--5/1)

3--John Dunlop (11/2**--11/4*--9/4*)

4--John Gosden (15/2--9/2*--100/30--5/4*)

3--William Haggas (9/4*--4/5*--2/5*)

3--Declan Carroll (4/1*--4/1--7/2)

3--Sir Mark Prescott (6/4*--5/4*--4/6*)

3--Saeed Bin Suroor (13/2--7/2**--10/11*)

3--Chris Wall (10/1--7/1--15/8*)

2--Kevin Ryan (8/1 & 15/8* + NH winner at 14/1)


Now onto our bread and butter daily racing focus starting with...

 

...TUESDAY 11/9:

LEICESTER:

General stats: James Tate (5/8 at the venue in recent years) has declared two horses on the Leicester card.

2.20: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last ten winners of this opening event and the trainer is represented by his Danehill Dancer filly Penny Rose this time around.  Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals, whilst eight winners during the last decade were sent off at odds of 7/1 or less.  Seven of the last ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

2.50: All five winners have scored at 8/1 or less, statistics which include two successful favourites.  The other three market leaders all finished out of the money (exact science).

3.20: The last eight winners of this event have carried a maximum burden of 8-10, whilst the last ten winners have scored at odds of 10/1 or less statistics which include three successful market leaders.  Six of the ten favourites during the study period secured toteplacepot positions.

3.50: Richard Hannon held three options at the weekend for a race in which he saddled the winners of both divisions last year.  Perfect Pose has been offered the green light by the trainer.  Nine of the last ten winners have scored at odds of 9/1 or less, whilst four of the last six favourites have prevailed.  Six of the last ten favourites have finished in the money from a toteplacepot perspective.

4.20: Three of the four favourites (via three renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.  Three-year-olds have won all the contests thus far.

4.50: Five of the last six winners have carried weights of nine stones or more, whilst just one favourite has prevailed via the last eight renewals during the which time, four winners were sent off at 33/1-33/1-25/1-10/1.  Eight of the last thirteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.

5.20: All five win and place positions to date have been claimed by horses carrying 9-1 or more.

 

REDCAR:

General stats: Silver Sycamore (4.00) represents David Lanigan who boasts a 40% record at Redcar via 2/5 stats.

 

WORCESTER:

General stats: Partners Anthony Honeyball (11/28) and Rachel Green (11/22) reign supreme at the venue as stated recently, whilst Anthony was the subject of a positive Geegeez blog last week.

 

WEDNESDAY 12/9:

DONCASTER:

General stats: William Buick’s 24% strike rate on Town Moor is decent enough, notwithstanding his back up via an LSP figure which stands at forty-four points!

2.00: Five of the six win and place positions to date have been secured by horses carrying weights of 9-3 more, statistics which include both (25/1 & 9/2) winners.  The 3/1 favourite finished out of the frame in the inaugural running of this Nursery event before last year’s 9/2 market leader obliged.

2.30: Five of the last fourteen favourites have prevailed (though only two of the last 11), whilst eight of the fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

3.05: The last twelve winners of this Listed event have carried weights of 9-7 or more, which eliminates the bottom three horses if you take the stats literally, whilst two favourites have prevailed during the last fifteen years.  Nine of the seventeen market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

3.40: All three favourites (via two renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include both (9/2 and 4/1) winners.

4.10: Eight of the thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (four winning favourites).

4.45: Four of the five winners to date have carried 8-11 or less whereby you should not be too quick to eliminate the bottom weights as some people tend to do in handicap events. Two of the six market leaders (via five renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions to date (no winners).

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs)

9-10-1 (12 ran-good)

6-8-3 (12 ran-good)

6-2-10 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-4-8 (14 ran-soft)

12-5-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

5.15: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals whilst three favourites have prevailed during the last decade.  The last nine winners have carried a maximum weight of nine stones.

 

CARLISLE:

General stats: Three favourites won on an eight race card twelve months ago with plenty of leading trainers responsible for the winners, though no handler saddled a double on the day.  Just two double priced winners were recorded which was reasonable given that the ground changed from soft to heavy following persistent rain throughout the afternoon, notwithstanding a strong headwind. 

 

KEMPTON:

General stats: The only successful (4/5) favourite on last year’s card was the lone odds on market leader on the day.

 

UTTOXETER:

General stats: Three favourites obliged on last year’s card when the biggest priced winner was returned at just 9/1.  Fourteen of the eighteen available toteplacepot positions were secured by horses returned in single figure prices, whereby the £6.00 dividend did not come as a surprise.

 

THURSDAY 13/9:

DONCASTER:

General stats: Johnny Murtagh was booked to ride Sentaril on the card, the jockey boasting 8/29 stats at Doncaster during the last five years.  Note all of Johnny’s rides this week.

Nursery event scheduled for 1.15: Eleven of the twelve winners have carried weights of 9-3, whilst two of the thirteen market leaders have prevailed thus far, with six of the other twelve market leaders claiming additional toteplacepot positions.  Aside from the winning 9/4 and 3/1 favourites, the other scorers were returned at 20/1, 20/1, 16/1, 12/1, 12/1, 12/1, 10/1, 13/2, 11/2 & 9/2.

'Draw factor' (six and a half furlongs)

1-4-5 (13 ran-good)

1-12-6-10 (18 ran-good)

7-6-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

16-2-14-8 (16 ran-soft)

3-9-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-8-9 (13 ran-heavy)

11-4-10 (14 ran-firm)

15-12-11-14 (22 ran-good)

5-6-14-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

19-1-14-3 (20 ran-good)

12-22-8-21 (22 ran-good to firm)

10-13-17-16 (17 ran-good to firm)

‘Sceptre Stakes’ scheduled for 1.50: Three-year-olds have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals, whilst four favourites have won this race in the last fifteen years.  Seven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot position in the process.

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

10-7-9 (13 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-9-6 (12 ran-soft)

3-8-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-6-10 (9 ran-good)

7-2-13 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-16-19 (17 ran-good)

8-10-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

14-12-13 (13 ran-good)

13-7-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

9-5-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

5-4-11 (14 ran-good)

£300,000 added 2YO Stakes event scheduled for 2.20: Eight of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions which is a fair record in this competitive event (three winning favourites in the last eight years), especially as just three places are up for grabs in this cavalry charge.

'Draw factor' (six and a half furlongs)

13-4-19 (21 ran-good)

4-12-2 (21 ran-Good)

21-4-1 (19 ran-good to firm)

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16-17-9 (21 ran-soft)

7-20-13 (22 ran-good to firm)

10-18-15 (22 ran-good to firm)

12-17-19 (22 ran-good)

5-15-13 (22 ran-good)

17-18-21 (21 ran-good)

22-20-17 (22 ran-good to firm)

4-10-3 (22 ran-good)

6-1-18 (21 ran-good to firm)

11-4-20 (22 ran-good)

‘Park Hill Stakes’ scheduled for 2.55: Three-year-olds have won nine of the last fifteen renewals, though four-year-olds come into this year’s contest on a hat trick.  Two clear market leaders have prevailed during the last fifteen years, alongside a co favourite of three.  Eleven of the seventeen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

One mile maiden juvenile event due to be contested at 3.30: Seven of the last fifteen market leaders have won, whilst a horse returned at 6/4 (second favourite) also obliged during the period.  Thirteen of the fifteen market leaders secured a toteplacepot position.

'Draw factor' (eight furlongs):

5-16-8 (15 ran-good)

13-11-15 (15 ran-good)

3-10-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-5-2 (12 ran-soft)

3-8-9 (11 ran-soft)

6-3-5 (11 ran-good to firm)

6-1-10 (10 ran-good to firm)

3-8-4 (11 ran-good)

7-17-9 (17 ran-good)

9-3-13 (13 ran-good)

12-3-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-1-9 (10 ran-good)

10-2-1 (12 ran-good to firm)

7-2-9 (16 ran-good)

7-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

Six furlong all aged handicap scheduled for 4.05: Two of the five favourites have finished in the frame (one winner).

'Draw factor' (six furlongs)

16-20-18-13 (21 ran-good)

4-21-8-13 (19 ran-good)

18-17-20-8 (20 ran-good to firm)

16-18-2-17 (21 ran-soft)

17-15-12-16 (20 ran-good to firm)

Class 2 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 4.35: Eight of the last nine winners carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst the same number of gold medallists were returned at odds of 13/2 or less, statistics which include two successful market leaders.

 

CHEPSTOW:

General stats: Two favourites won on a seven race card last year with five gold medallists scoring in single figures.  The two exceptions were both returned at odds of 16/1. 

 

EPSOM:

General stats: Although only one favourite obliged on the six race card, the other five gold medallists were 9/1 or less.

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

General stats: Three of the seven winners were returned in double figures, albeit no extreme outsiders scored, the relevant gold medallists being returned at 12/1-12/1-10/1.  Thirty four horses were sent off at odds of 14/1 or more without succeeding.

 

FRIDAY 14/9:

DONCASTER:

General stats: Watch out for any David Lanigan runners at Donny this week, the trainer boasting prolific figures of 6/13 to date. 

‘Flying Childers’ juvenile event scheduled for 1.15: Seven favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst eight of the sixteen market leaders (joint favourites were returned in 1999) secured toteplacepot positions.  Fifty five horses contested this event at odds of 12/1 or more during the last decade without success.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

2-4-1 (10 ran-good)

2-11-10 (12 ran-good)

9-2-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

11-7-6 (12 ran-soft)

4-3-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-9-4 (9 ran-heavy)

7-3-12 (11 ran-firm)

6-12-3 (13 ran-good)

8-7-1 (14 ran-good to firm)

13-12-14 (13 ran-good)

3-6-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

13-7-9 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-8-6 (13 ran-good)

5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

‘Mallard Stakes’ scheduled for 1.50: Twelve of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-4 or less, whilst eight three-year-olds have won during the study period.  Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last fifteen years, though only three of the other fourteen favourites claimed toteplacepot positions.

‘Doncaster Cup’ due to be contested at 2.20: Four favourites have won the Doncaster Cup since 1998, though ten of the other eleven favourites during the study period finished out of the frame.

‘May Hill Stakes’ scheduled for 2.55: Richard Hannon has secured two of the last seven renewals (the only potentially represented trainer to have saddled two winners during the last decade) and Light Up My Life was Richard’s only option at the five-day stage.  Six market leaders have won during the last fifteen years, whilst ten of the fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Seven furlong Conditions event scheduled for 3.30: Saeed Bin Suroor has won this race twice in the last seven years and Saeed’s only entry at the five-day stage was Tarikhi.  Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last 14 renewals, whilst nine of the fifteen ’jollies’ snared toteplacepot positions.

Six and a half furlong all aged handicap scheduled for 4.05: Richard Fahey had saddled gold and silver medallists via just three renewals before last year’s 33/1 selection (typically) finished fourth in the fifteen runner handicap event!  Richard held two options at the five-day stage this time around.  The 5/2 favourite secured a toteplacepot position in the inaugural running before the last two market leaders finished down the field.

'Draw factor' (six and a half furlongs)

3-2-10 (15 ran-good)

11-7-13-14 (18 ran-good)

2-3-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

Classified event over ten furlongs scheduled for 4.35:

 

CHESTER:

General stats: Paul Mulrennan is a jockey who does not receive the plaudits he deserves often enough.  Paul’s strike rate at Chester in recent years stands at 23%, backed up by twenty-four points of level stake profits.

 

SANDOWN:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda held five entries at Sandown at the time of writing and with current stats standing at Sandown of 15/48 (31%), Jeremy’s LSP figure of eighteen points at the venue adds icing on the cake.

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

General stats: Shirley Teasdale (you have got to love that name) has ridden four winners via seventeen opportunities at Dunstall Park with more winners waiting to happen.  It’s just a case of how soon the gold medallists will arrive.

 

SATURDAY 15/9:

DONCASTER:

General stats: You have to admire Aidan O’Brien.  Despite having the long odds on favourite for the final classic of the season, the trainer was responsible for six of the sixteen five-day declarations earlier in the week, with Aidan leaving nothing to chance.

Class 2 one mile handicap scheduled for 1.50: Three-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals, whilst two favourites have won in the last nine years.  Eight of the fourteen recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

‘Champagne Stakes’ due to be contested at 2.25: Richard Hannon broke his recent hoodoo in the contest by saddling last year’s winner (Trumpet Major) and the trainer looks to hold the ace in the pack this time around with Toronado.  Five favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

‘Portland Handicap’ scheduled for 3.00: The last ten winners have carried 8-12 or more, whilst five-year-olds have won the last five renewals.  Four favourites have won during the last fifteen years, which is a perfectly respectable ratio given the competitive nature of this event.  Level stake punters would have shown a profit of £700.00 for a one hundred pound investment on market leaders during the study period.  Seven of the last eighteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process, though last year’s favourite finished fifth!  Nine of the last eleven winners were returned at odds ranging between 11/1 and 20/1.

'Draw factor' (five and a half furlongs)

15-7-16-19 (21 ran-good to firm)

7-6-16-8 (22 ran-good)

16-22-2-17 (22 ran-good to firm)

18-9-14-21 (21 ran-soft)

21-11-14-12 (21 ran-good to firm)

5-22-7-4 (21 ran-good to firm)

13-1-8-12 (22 ran-good)

15-22-8-9 (22 ran-good)

20-16-11-2 (22 ran-good)

9-16-19-14 (22 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9-16 (22 ran-good)

16-20-22-18 (21 ran-good to firm)

10-14-8-3 (21 ran-good)

6-22-19-7 (22 ran-good to firm)

‘St Leger’ scheduled for 3.40: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last fifteen years.  Fourteen of the sixteen favourites have finished in the frame during the study period.  Aidan O’Brien has won the St Leger three times during the last eleven years which adds confidence to his hot favourite Camelot.  John Gosden has saddled three of the last five winners of the final classic of the season and John comes to the party this year on a hat trick.  A line through Main Sequence suggests that Thought Worthy should not finish too far behind the favourite, if he finishes behind him at all.

‘Park Stakes’ due to be contested at 4.15: Older horses (aged four or more) have secured six of the last seven renewals of this event, whilst seven of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two successful market leaders.

One mile Nursery event scheduled for 4.50: Favourites come to the gig on a four timer though the handicapper would not appreciate the market leader scoring again.  Five of the last 11 favourites have finished in the frame (three winners).  If early jockey bookings ‘float your boat’, Jamie Spencer was jocked aboard Glory Awaits for Kevin Ryan as early as Monday afternoon, the only pilot to have been ‘confirmed’ at the time.

Class 2 twelve furlong handicap scheduled for 5.20: Four of the last six renewals have fallen the way of favourites of one description or another.  Three and four-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last eight renewals, whilst junior representatives come to the gig on a hat trick on this occasion.

 

BATH:

General stats: Robert Cowell’s 4/7 ratio stands out from the west country crowd. Denis Coakley’s LSP reading of sixty-seven points (via ten winners) catches the eye.

 

CHESTER:

General stats: Marco Botti has saddled three of his nine runners on the Roodee to winning effect.

 

NEWCASTLE:

General stats: Rae Guest has his team in sparkling from at the time of writing (last three runners in this country have won) and his 5/15 strike rate at Newcastle is worth reporting. 

 

KEMPTON:

General stats: John Balding only held two options all week, one of which was Point North who is scheduled to contest the 8.55 event at the time of writing.  John’s 3/14 ratio at Kempton is backed up by an LSP reading of thirteen points. 

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6 replies
  1. Chris Worrall says:

    A great start to the week, Mal.
    Penny Rose was the 12/1 winner in the 2.20 Leicester: thanks again and I hope a few more of us got on board.

  2. Dave Camm says:

    Great amount of information (especially Doncaster) that helped make it profitable. Thanks Mal. Nice to have good chunk rather than loads of e-mails.

  3. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Sincere thanks Dave for taking the time and trouble to write….that goes for all of you that offer kind words. We are all in this together–to beat the old enemy any which way we can! Here’s to next week!

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