This weekend's notable race entries...

Well I Declare 12th October 2011

... are all here in Mal Boyle's "Well I Declare" feature.It's Wednesday again, so it's time for Malcolm Boyle to lead us through the noteworthy declarations between now and the end of the weekend. There's some excellent racing at Ascot on Saturday for Champions' Day, as well as a tricky looking 2 day meeting over the jumps at Cheltenham.

But who better to guide us through the minefield than Malcolm?

Let's look at what he has found for us this week.

 

WEDNESDAY:

Kempton: 

General stats: Ralph Beckett boasts the best level stake profit (over 50 points) of the represented trainers at Kempton tonight and with the stable having sent out five of their last fifteen runners to winning effect, One Cool Breeze (6.40 tonight) and Lexington Pearl (7.20 on Thursday) might be kept on the right side.

6.40: We still await the first winning favourite following three contests thus far.  Four of the five market leaders have finished out of the frame, whilst all three winners carried weights of 8-13 or less.  All nine horses to have secured toteplacepot positions have carried a maximum burden of nine stones.

9.10: Only one favourite has scored five renewals to date.

 

Lingfield: 

General stats: Roger Varian has saddled three winners via just four runners at Lingfield to date whereby his two entries on Wednesday make for interesting reading, namely Tazweed (3.35) and Tafaneen (5.10).

2.30: Just two favourites have won via the last ten renewals, though the biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at 12/1.

3.00: This is the second division of the previous race whereby the same stats apply.

3.35: Although the last three favourites have been beaten, market leaders have won six of the last ten renewals, with nine gold medallists having been returned at odds of 9/2 or less.

4.05: Three and four-year-olds have won six (even split) of the last eight renewals.  The last six contests have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded.

4.40: This is the second division of the previous event on the card whereby the same stats apply.

5.10: Three-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals whilst only one favourite has prevailed during the last nine years.

5.45: Favourites have won five of the last eight contests.

 

Nottingham: 

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor has won with eight of the fifteen juveniles he has saddled (53.3%) at Nottingham in the last five years and his only runner on the card is his unraced two-year-old Tadmir (4.20--Epsom Derby entry) for whom Paul Hanagan is surely a significant booking.

2.40: We still await the first winning favourite whilst all four gold medallists have carried weights of 9-3 or less.

3.45: Five of the last ten renewals have been secured by market leaders with the biggest priced winner being returned at 10/1.

4.20: Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled four of the last ten winners, adding to the positive news in the general stats area for Nottingham.

4.50: All three winners have carried 9-4 or more whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at 6/1 (one successful market leader).

5.20: This is the second division of the previous event on the card whereby the stats remain in place.

 

Wetherby:

General stats: Paul Webber has saddled four winners from thirteen runners at Wetherby in recent seasons and Paul saddles two of the three options he held at the penultimate stage, namely Marley Roca (3.55) and Gumball (6.00).

2.20: Just one favourite has obliged via the last ten renewals.

2.50: Six and seven-year-olds have won the four renewals (even split) with one favourite having scored to date.  All four winners have carried weights of 11-3 or more.

3.25: Three of the last four favourites (of one description or another) have obliged whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/2 during the period.

3.55: Paul Webber has saddled two of the last nine winners, stats which add substance to the facts offered above.

4.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals.  Seven of the last ten contests have been won by market leaders, during which time the biggest priced winner was returned at just 9/2.

5.30: Four and five-year-olds have secured five of the last six contests, with four favourites have scored during the study period.

6.00: This is the second division of the previous race whereby the same stats remain place.

 

THURSDAY:

Brighton: 

General stats: Three of John Gosden’s four juveniles to have contested Brighton events have won in recent years whereby Light Well (2.30) demands plenty of attention.

2.30 Favourites have won four of the six contests, the biggest priced winner having been returned at just 7/2.

4.00: The last five winners of the three-year-old handicap have carried a minimum burden 0of 9-1 which means you can eliminate the bottom six runners (thirteen declared) if you take the stats seriously.

4.30: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer, having won four of the last five contests.

5.00: The last seven winners have carried 9-3 or less whilst four-year-olds have secured the last three renewals.

 

Kempton: 

General stats: With two Nursery events on the card, it’s worth noting that with a 31% strike rate at the venue in the relevant sector, favourites have a reasonable record at Kempton.

 

Uttoxeter: 

General stats: Charlie Mann, Dr Richard Newland and Renee Robeson have each saddled ten winners at this venue in the last five years, offering around a 25% strike rate with level stake profits thrown in for good measure.

Two mile novice hurdle qualifier event scheduled for 2.40: Five-year-olds have won five of the eights contests of a race confined to 4/5/6 year olds.  Favourites have secured five of the last six renewals with the eventual market leader coming to this encounter of a four timer.

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Handicap chase run over the minimum trip scheduled for 4.40: Favourites have secured four of the eight contests coming into this contest on a hat trick.  The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 7/1 whilst the last five winners have carried weights of 11-4 or more to victory.

 

Wincanton: 

General stats: Susan Gardner help two options at Wincanton at the time of writing, the trainer boasting stats of 3/9 at the venue whilst achieving a level stake profit of over fifteen points.

Two mile six furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.20: All six winners have carried weights of 11-4 or more.  Just one favourite has obliged thus far.

Two mile five furlong handicap chase scheduled for 2.50: Just one the last seven renewals has fallen the way of the favourite, during which time four eight-year-olds have won.

Two mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.20: Seven contests have produced just one successful market leader thus far, though the biggest priced winner was returned at just 9/1.

Two mile maiden hurdle event scheduled for 4.50: Favourites have won both renewals to date.

 

FRIDAY:

Cheltenham: 

General stats: It might surprise you to learn that Tim Vaughan has saddled thirty one consecutive losers at Prestbury Park.  Other leading trainers who have struggled in recent times include Gary Moore (2/56) and Donald McCain (3/63).

Novice Chase scheduled for 2.45: Three renewals have produced a biggest priced winner of 9/4, with two successful market leaders having been registered.

Pertemps qualifier scheduled for 3.20:  Seventeen of the twenty two five day decs were below the official handicap mark.

Novice chase event scheduled for 3.55: The last ten winners have scored at odds of 9/1 or less, with six favourites scoring for good measure.

Two mile maiden hurdle event scheduled for 4.30: Philip Hobbs has saddled the winner of our of the last nine contests, with the trainer holding just one option (Outrageous Request) at the time of writing.

Amateur riders event scheduled for 5.05: Seven renewals have slipped by since a successful market leader was recorded.

Conditional jockeys event scheduled for 5.40: The recent Ludlow winner Baccalaureate was the only potential Nigel Twiston-Davies raider in the contest, the trainer having secured three of the last eight renewals.

 

Haydock: 

General stats: David Elsworth boasts a 28% strike rate at Haydock in recent years and having saddled three of his last seven runners to winning effect at the time of writing, David’s three potential raiders on Friday might be worth keeping on the right side if offered the green light.

 

Redcar: 

General stats: Cheherazad potentially represents trainer Paul Cole in the scheduled 4.55 event which is interesting, given Paul’s 2/6 ratio at the Cleveland venue.

Lady amateur riders event scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds have won the last three contests.

Juvenile claiming event scheduled for 2.35: Favourites have won three of the last four contests whilst the biggest priced gold medallist in the last six years was a 13/2 chance.

One mile juvenile event scheduled for 3.45: Eight of the last ten winners have been sent of at odds of 6/1 or less (three winning favourites via the last four contests).

Fourteen furlong mixed vintage handicap scheduled for 4.20: Course winner Dark Dune was Tim Easterby’s only potential runner earlier in the week in a race Tim has secured in each of the last three years.   Tim also saddled the winner back in 2004 for good measure.

Six furlong maiden event scheduled for 4.55: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last eight contests.

Seven furlong 3YO handicap event scheduled for 5.30: Seven of the last eight winners have carried weights of nine stones or more, during which time winning favourites have been conspicuous by their absence.

 

Wolverhampton: 

General stats: Favourite backers have not fared too badly in the last five years at the track, given the stats of 42% in non handicap events and 30% in handicap races.

 

SATURDAY:

Ascot: 

General stats: James Fanshawe is one of the few trainers who can boast a 20.0% strike at Ascot (12/60) within the last five years, with nine of those winners representing the ‘older vintages’ (aged four or more).

Group 2 Champion Sprint scheduled for 2.25: Three-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals, whilst the last eight contests have slipped by without a successful market leader being registered.

Group 2 Fillies & Mares event scheduled for 3.00: Crystal Capella has secured two of the three renewals thus far and the six-year-old was Sir Michael Stoute’s only option at the five-day stage.

Frankel attempts to become the fourth successful three-year-old to win the QEII event which is scheduled for 3.35.

Twice Over attempts his hat trick in the Champion Stakes (scheduled for 4.10), whilst three-year-olds had won four of the previous five events before Sir Henry Cecil’s Observatory raider took charge of the race.

 

Catterick: 

General stats: It is difficult to saddle the most winners in a five years period as well as boasting a level stake profit but Dandy Nicholls has achieved the feat at Catterick in recent times.

‘Catterick Dash’ scheduled for 2.55: Four-year-olds have secured six of the last nine contests.  Winning favourites have been conspicuous by their absence via the last eight renewals.

Seven furlong juvenile event scheduled for 4.00: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last nine contests and the trainer’s Echo Of Light newcomer Kinloch Castle was Mark’s only option earlier in the week.  Four of the last six favourites have obliged.

Seven furlong handicap scheduled for 5.15: Favourites have won four of the last nine renewals, boasting level stake profits of nine points in the process.  David Nicholls has saddled three of the last ten winners.

 

Cheltenham:

General stats: Paul Nicholls (leading trainer at Chelters) stats in recent years: Hurdle events: 25/151----Chase sector: 26/202----Bumper division: 3/12.

Class 2 handicap chase scheduled for 2.40: Six-year-olds have secured five of the last eight contests.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.50: We still await the first successful favourite following four renewals.  Eight-year-olds have won three of the four contests thus far.  Philip Hobbs has secured a medal of each colour and Balthazar King was Philip’s only potential runner at the penultimate stage.

Class 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.25: The last seven winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.30: Seven renewals have passed by since the last favourite obliged, whilst five-year-olds have secured six of the last nine contests.

 

Kelso: 

General stats: Kate Walton had just Star Beat representing the yard earlier in the week and with a record of 6/28 at the track, Kate was boasting a level stake profit of over eighteen points for good measure.

Class 4 handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.55:  No winning favourite recorded since 2004 (six renewals).

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Simon Dow has saddled four winners from just eleven runners here and with Sottovoce (silver medallist on his only start at Wolverhampton) declared at the four-day stage, Simon had a decent chance of improving his ratio.

 

SUNDAY:

Bath:

General stats: Over half (19/36) of the winners saddled by Mick Channon at Bath in recent years have hailed from his juvenile representatives. 

Juvenile maiden event scheduled for 3.35: Just one favourite has obliged via eight renewals.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Nicky Henderson rules the roost at NH venues around the London area and Kempton is no different. Hurdle stats in recent years: 23/100----Chase ratio: 21/61----Bumper division: 7/18.

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 2.15:  Favourites have secured three of the last four contests.

Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 2.45: Toubab was the only Paul Nicholls representative the other side of the weekend, the trainer having won three of the six renewals.

Listed hurdle event scheduled for 3.20: Four-year-olds have won four of the seven contests, during which time four favourites have obliged.  The biggest priced winner to date was returned at just 9/2.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.50: Seven of the last nine winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more.

Two mile hurdle event scheduled for 4.25: Philip Hobbs and Paul Nicholls have both saddled three winners within the last decade and both trainers held one option at the five-day stage when just eleven potential starters stood their ground.

Handicap chase over the minimum trip scheduled for 4.55: Favourites come to the gig on a four-timer, having secured six of the last nine contests.  The biggest priced winner during the last decade was a 13/2 chance.

Two mile-five furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 5.30:  All three renewals have fallen the way of favourites to date.

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4 replies
  1. Eamon says:

    Hi Mal,

    Great analysis and digging. Really useful stats you’ve uncovered above. I’ve gone through the Brighton card and applied the stats. I’ll let you know how I get on.

    I’m pretty busy for the rest of the day so won’t have the time to go through the rest of meetings and stats but keep up the good work, as it is appreciated.

    I think Matt’s comments about having great info behind the scenes on the Geegeez website definitely applies in your case, despite his regular plugging…great stats analysis here. I’ll be coming back tomorrow and Saturday to have a look.

    Keep chipping away at us readers and we’ll get used to coming to this area of the site.

    Cheers

    Eamon

  2. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    I’m obliged Eamon and the attitude I always try and adopt is that is us (collectively) against the ‘old enemy’ which is the best policy.

  3. Eamon says:

    Mal,

    I couldn’t help having a look at the NH meeting at Uttoxeter as you only covered two of teh races there. Some interesting stats and here’s my selections using those as a starting point.

    2.40 Uttox – Tim Vaughan / R Johnson combo has a good SR so for me it’s Gallox and despite being a 6YO I’m happy to take this one above Scales so I hope your stat re 5YO’s winning doesn’t apply today.

    I read an interesting article by Nick Pullen about punters blindly backing Mc Coy recently in certain class of races and it concluded that his SR is better in lower class races. It’s nearly 22% in HC Chases so with favourites having won the last 4/8 races, I’ll be dutching Carleton Place with Farleigh House.

    Eamon

  4. Chris says:

    Thanks Mal for pointing out Susan Gardner’s record at Wincanton. Just the two runners, but one won at 12/1! Not to mention the small matter of Lexington Pearl’s 12/1 victory at Kempton.

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