Well I Declare: 12th September

Well I Declare: 12th September

Well I Declare: 12th September

Well I Declare: 12th September

Mal kicked the week off in style yesterday with a 12/1 winner in the first race he looked at for us! Hopefully there's more of the same today as we remind ourselves of his thoughts on today's action from Doncaster, Carlisle, Kempton and Uttoxeter on...

...WEDNESDAY 12/9:

DONCASTER:

General stats: William Buick’s 24% strike rate on Town Moor is decent enough, notwithstanding his back up via an LSP figure which stands at forty-four points!

2.00: Five of the six win and place positions to date have been secured by horses carrying weights of 9-3 more, statistics which include both (25/1 & 9/2) winners.  The 3/1 favourite finished out of the frame in the inaugural running of this Nursery event before last year’s 9/2 market leader obliged.

2.30: Five of the last fourteen favourites have prevailed (though only two of the last 11), whilst eight of the fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

3.05: The last twelve winners of this Listed event have carried weights of 9-7 or more, which eliminates the bottom three horses if you take the stats literally, whilst two favourites have prevailed during the last fifteen years.  Nine of the seventeen market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

3.40: All three favourites (via two renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include both (9/2 and 4/1) winners.

4.10: Eight of the thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (four winning favourites).

4.45: Four of the five winners to date have carried 8-11 or less whereby you should not be too quick to eliminate the bottom weights as some people tend to do in handicap events. Two of the six market leaders (via five renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions to date (no winners).

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'Draw factor' (seven furlongs)

9-10-1 (12 ran-good)

6-8-3 (12 ran-good)

6-2-10 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-4-8 (14 ran-soft)

12-5-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

5.15: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals whilst three favourites have prevailed during the last decade.  The last nine winners have carried a maximum weight of nine stones.

 

CARLISLE:

General stats: Three favourites won on an eight race card twelve months ago with plenty of leading trainers responsible for the winners, though no handler saddled a double on the day.  Just two double priced winners were recorded which was reasonable given that the ground changed from soft to heavy following persistent rain throughout the afternoon, notwithstanding a strong headwind. 

 

KEMPTON:

General stats: The only successful (4/5) favourite on last year’s card was the lone odds on market leader on the day.

 

UTTOXETER:

General stats: Three favourites obliged on last year’s card when the biggest priced winner was returned at just 9/1.  Fourteen of the eighteen available toteplacepot positions were secured by horses returned in single figure prices, whereby the £6.00 dividend did not come as a surprise.

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1 reply
  1. alan craik says:

    Mal
    good spot with the 3:40 at Donny, just had to click on the unnamed fav box and 5/1 winner came my way.
    great going

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