Hi everyone, it's Tuesday morning again which can only mean one thing here at geegeez.co.uk : it's time for our regular Well, I Declare feature. This is where Mal Boyle casts his eye over the week's notable racing declarations and highlights the relevant stats and trends to help us pick a winner. So, without further ado, here are Mal's thoughts on the week ahead.
General stats: William Haggas (36%) and David Simcock (32%) lead the strike rates relating to potentially represented trainers at Brighton on Tuesday.
6.00: Magical Speedfit has gained five of his six victories to date here at Brighton.
7.30: Royal Defence has gained the last two of his four successes here at Brighton and gained the victories on good and soft ground, conditions which should be to his advantage one way or another by the time that flag fall arrives.
9.00: Five-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals of the finale whilst the last five gold medallists were burdened with a minimum weight of 9-2. It's worth noting that the top seven runners in the list are separated by only five pounds.
General stats: Roger Varian boasts a thirty per cent strike rate (3/10) via his short career to date, whilst dual purpose trainer Alan King offers a decent 27% ratio.
2.00 & 2.30 (two divisions of the opening race): Seven of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via the last ten renewals during which time, three clear market leaders and one joint favourite obliged.
3.00: Four-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals, with this year’s lone vintage representative being the recent Windsor (good to soft) winner Bunce. If that trend is to go belly up, another one is in place as David Evans has saddled the last three winners of the contest and the trainer is represented this time around by Kingswinford. Nine of the last eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (six winning favourites). However, it’s only right to point out that two of the last nine gold medallists scored at 100/1 and 33/1.
4.05: Three-year-olds have won five of the seven renewals whilst five of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two winners.
4.35: The last nine winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more whereby the bottom four horses in the handicap can be eliminated if (like yours truly) you believe in statistics. Nine of the twelve favourites during the study period have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners).
General stats: Rod Millman’s Devon based runners are worth noting when they travel to Lingfield as his 23% strike confirms, notwithstanding level stake profits of over eighteen points during the last five years.
General stats: Renee Robeson has won with four of the eight runners NH runners saddled at Southwell.
General stats: Simon West has saddled three of his eight runners at Beverley to winning effect.
2.00 & 3.00 (two divisions of the opening race on the card): Eight of the nine toteplacepot positions (including all three winners) have been claimed by horses carrying weights of 8-12 or more.
2.30: Five of the last eight favourites have won, but they are the only market leaders to have triumphed in the last fifteen years. Eight of the fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, though last year’s 2/5 market leader finished out of the (short field) frame.
3.30: The last five winners have all carried weights of 9-2 or less whilst five of the six favourites have finished out with the washing (no winners) to date.
4.00: Seven of the nine winners thus far have carried weights of 8-12 or more whilst two of the eight favourites have won thus far, with eight of the nine market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.
4.30: Four of the last 14 favourites have won to date, whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
General stats: William Haggas cannot put a foot wrong at the time of writing and his 45% record (5/11) at Hamilton stands out from the crowd.
General stats: John Holt (3/9) is (respectfully) one of the ‘lesser trainers’ to respect at Haydock, albeit Roger Varian and William Haggas representatives should invariably be kept on the right side.
2.20: Mark Johnston was responsible for six of the fourteen penultimate entries at the five-day stage and relies on Nice Rose this time around.
2.50: Only one of the six market leaders has finished in the frame to date via just three renewals. One of the three 5/2 co favourites won the inaugural contest before the last three market leaders all finished out with the washing.
3.20: Both (odds on) favourites have obliged to date.
4.50: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick, albeit the first four market leaders all failed to score since the first running of the contest was contested back in 2006.
General stats: Highly promising rider Harry Bentley boasts a 28% strike rate (5/18) at Yarmouth to date, statistics which have produced a level stake profit of over thirty-eight points.
General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor has been in decent form of late and with Royal Ascot on the horizon, Godolphin’s blue colours should be figuring prominently this week. Saeed’s 32% strike rate here at Kempton has produced nearly twenty points of level stake profits during the last five years.
General stats: Please refer to Wednesday’s comments whilst noting Elaine Burke’s thirty one points of level stake profits via seven winners at Haydock.
Seven furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 7.50: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include a 15/8 winner.
One mile 3YO handicap scheduled for 8.20: Last year's successful 8/15 favourite was the only market to oblige during the last decade via six renewals. That said, the other five winners were returned at odds ranging between 6/1 and 10/1. Half of the market leaders (3/6) have finished in the frame.
Class 4 five furlong handicap due to be contested at 8.50: Three of the six favourites (all respective winners of their races via four renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions to date when returned at 4/1 (twice) and 7/2. Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared the four contests thus far.
Ten furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 9.20: Luca Cumani saddled the successful inaugural 3/1 favourite but was not represented in the race twelve months ago when the market leader finished out with the washing. Luca held just the one option for the contest at the penultimate entry stage which was his Leicester (good to soft) winner Sea Fever.
General stats: Swift Blade was due to contest the amateur event on the card at the time of writing, the only runner that Lady Herries had declared all week. The trainer has saddled three of her nine runners to winning effect at the venue during the study period.
One mile Class 5 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 2.50: All seven winners of this event have carried weights of 9-1 or more whilst five of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (one winner).
'Draw factor' (eight furlongs):
8-3-14 (15 ran-good to firm)
5-6-8 (15 ran-good to firm)
16-13-11 (15 ran-good to firm)
5-8-2-3 (16 ran-good)
8-16-1 (14 ran-good to firm)
6-8-2 (10 ran-good to firm)
3-14-10 (14 ran-good to firm)
Listed fillies event over ten furlongs scheduled for 3.25: Twelve of the gold medallists during the last fourteen years were returned at odds of 11/2 or less. Six favourites have won during the last fourteen contests, whilst ten market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
'Draw factor' (ten furlongs): Ten winners have emerged from the bottom three stalls during the last fourteen years.
Ten furlong maiden fillies event scheduled for 4.00: Four of the last seven favourites have won though it’s worth recalling that a 4/11 (Sir Michael Stoute trained) market leader was beaten into second place in one of the divisions of the contest twelve months ago.
General stats: Whilst some cynical scribes are writing off Frankie Dettori having been a great ambassador for the sport, it’s worth noting that the pilot still boasts an excellent strike of 31% at Newbury during the last five years.
General stats: George Baker (26%) and Sir Mark Prescott (25%) are not two names which crop up regularly on this column but both trainers raid this venue to good effect.
General stats: Another Kate is the only David Richards runner this week at the time of writing and it’s worth noting the trainer boasts a 60% strike rate (3/5) at Hereford.
General stats: General stats: Opera Prince is the only Simon Earle runner this week at the time of writing and it’s worth noting the trainer boasts a 60% strike rate (3/5) at Uttoxeter.
General stats: William Haggas (sorry to be repetitive!) has saddled no less than five of his eight runners to winning effect here at Chepstow in recent years, producing over thirteen points of level stake profits in the process.
General stats: Mahmood Al Zarooni’s level stake figures are marginally (four points) in the black via a strike rate of 26% (10/38) at Goodwood in recent years.
General stats: Graham Lee’s figures of 3/16 are nothing to become too exited about though the ‘revised pilot’ has produced twenty eight points of level stake profits at Musselburgh since switching codes.
General stats: Jeremy Noseda’s ratio is as constant as they come given that the trainer boasts a 33% strike rate at each of the three ‘vintage variables’ in the sport at Sandown, Jeremy’s juvenile ratio is 3/9, three-year-old raiders stand at 9/27, whilst one of his three older runners obliged during the five-year period.
General stats: John Dunlop is enduring a wretched start to the season by his high standards at the time of writing with just two of his fifty runners having won in 2012. John boasts a 29% strike rate here at York however via a ratio of 10/35, statistics which have produced level stake profits of fifty points.
Five furlong juvenile event scheduled for 2.00: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick, the first market leader having finished out of the frame back in 2009.
Ten furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 2.30: The eventual ‘Great Voltigeur’ winner Sea Moon landed this event last year when completing a double for favourites in the contest in the last two years. The previous seven contests had been won by horses returned at odds ranging between 7/2 and 16/1, with successful favourites only conspicuous by their absence.
Two-year-old ‘seller’ over six furlongs due to be contested at 3.40: Five contests have slipped by since a favourite prevailed.
Class 3 five furlong handicap scheduled for 4.10: Eight renewals have been contested during the last decade with seven winners ranging between 14/1 and 33/1, the other gold medallist having scored at 7/1. The last five winners have carried weights of nine stones or more.
Twelve furlong apprentice handicap scheduled for 5.15: One of the four favourites prevailed at odds of 3/1 whereby there are no level stake profits or losses relating to the finale thus far.
General stats: Kate Walton’s 25% strike rate (3/12) is nothing startling at Aintree, though an LSP figure of over sixty-two points certainly creates interest.
General stats: Sir Mark Prescott’s 37% strike rate via 7/19 figures is worth noting as Mark held four entries for Bath at the time of writing.
General stats: David Barron’s 4/10 ratio is worth remembering at Leicester, albeit Saeed Bin Suroor and Jeremy Noseda are more consistent and regular raiders to the Oadby venue.
General stats: Sir Michael Stoute‘s three year old record (26% strike rate via twenty-four winners during the last five years) is outstanding, not withstanding Jeremy Noseda’s wonderfully consistent ratios as mentioned for Friday’s meeting.
Nine furlong Class 3 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 2.20: Just one favourite has obliged during the last thirteen years, whilst seven of the fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Listed ‘Scurry Stakes’ scheduled for 3.25: Three market leaders have been successful via seven renewals, though three of the other four favourites finished out of the frame.
Class 4 five furlong handicap scheduled for 4.00: All six winners have been burdened with a minimum of 8-11 thus far. Two of the six favourites have troubled the judge to date (no winners). This was known as ‘Timeform Day’ down the years though I have long since regarded the date as a bookmaker’s extravaganza, designed to get as much money into the hod before Royal Ascot as the layers can muster!
Seven furlong Class 3 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 4.30: Six of the seven favourites have been beaten, claiming four toteplacepot positions between them to date. The biggest priced winner was returned at 12/1, whilst twelve of the twenty-one horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions have started at odds of 6/1 or less.
Ten furlong 3YO maiden event scheduled for 5.00: Six of the last eight winners have scored at 100/1--33/1--25/1--8/1--8/1--6/1, whilst the last eight favourites have been beaten (including an 8/13 odds on chance), with nine of the last fifteen market leaders having claimed toteplacepot positions.
General stats: Please note John Dunlop’s figures mentioned in dispatches for Friday, whilst Ryan Moore rides the Knavesmire as well as any other jockey (better than most) as his 22% strike rate confirms. That percentage figure hails from twenty-two winners which have produced level stake profits of eighteen points during the last five years.
Twelve furlong Class 3 handicap scheduled for 2.05: Six of the twelve favourites during the last decade have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders. Crackentorp was one of thirty-five penultimate stage entries, Tim Easterby's potential raider having secured gold and bronze medals via the last two renewals of the amateur rider contest.
Class 2 nine furlong handicap due to be sent off at 2.35: Market leaders have claimed five of the last seven available toteplacepot positions during which time, three favourites have prevailed which is a decent return in what is usually a competitive event. Six-year-olds have won three of the last five contests.
Six furlong handicap (Class 2) scheduled for 3.10: Five renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged, the quintet of gold medallists having been sent off at odds ranging between 9/1 and 20/1. All nine winners during the last decade carried weights of 9-1 or less.
Class 4 nine furlong handicap scheduled for 4.15: Four-year-olds have secured three of the five contests. Two favourites having been successful thus far, though the other three market leaders finished out of the frame. Four of the five gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 9-2.
Six furlong juvenile maiden scheduled for 4.45: Favourites have won six of the nine contests during the last decade with market leaders coming to this year's gig on a hat trick.
Class 4 six furlong handicap scheduled for 5.15: Only one (joint) favourite has obliged via the last nine renewals, whilst the last four winners have carried weights of 9-6 or more.
General stats: Henry Candy is something of a ‘dark horse’ at Lingfield given his four winners from just twelve runners in recent times.
General stats: Blue Destination (due to contest the 4.35 event) was John Quinn’s only potential runner on the card earlier in the week, the trainer matching Sir Mark Prescott’s Bath ratio (7/19 = 37% strike rate) on Saturday.