Well I Declare, 13th July 2011

Gay Kelleway has a chance at Lingfield today

Gay Kelleway has a chance at Lingfield today

Well I declare……

I hope you latched on to several winners last week which included those returned at 25/1 and 10/1!

WEDNESDAY:

Lingfield:

4.30: Gay Kelleway saddles only her second runner in the last five years in a race which is a memorial to her father Paul.  It goes without saying that LAYLINE will have been primed for this occasion.

Catterick:

3.20: Seven of the last eight winners have carried weights of 9-5 or more and course and distance winner HEL’S ANGEL appears to be the pick of this year’s seven ‘qualifiers’.

Worcester:

7.30: The last nine winners have carried weights of 11-7 or less whilst just one favourite has obliged during the period, with winners recorded at 50/1, 12/1, and 16/1.

9.10: Jonjo O’Neill and Tony McCoy have teamed up to win two of the last five renewals of Worcester’s finale and they are represented here by SAGREDO.

THURSDAY:

Epsom:

7.15: Five-year-olds have won both renewals to date via just five representatives whereby this year’s lone raider MARJU KING appeals from an each way perspective in this potential ‘dead eight’ event.

8.20: Similar comments (see 7.15 event) apply to SUNSHINE ALWAYS and LEADENHALL LASS as just three vintage representatives have produced both five-year-old winners thus far.

8.50: Five of the six available toteplacepot positions (stats include both winners) have been secured by horses carrying 9-1 or less.

Hamilton:

3.05: Three of the four market leaders have obliged in a race which has produced winners returned at a top price of 3/1.

5.20: Horses carrying 9-0 or less have secured six of the eight available toteplacepot positions, stats which include all three winners.

Leicester:

2.10: Nine years have passed since a favourite has won this Nursery event.

2.40: Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests and with only FLAMEOFTHEFOREST and PIDDIE’S POWER representing the vintage this time around, you might like to speculate on a victory for either of these runners.

4.25: Three of the four market leaders have obliged in a race which has produced winners returned at a top price of 3/1, whilst three-year-olds have secured all four renewals.

5.30: BOLDINOR has won two of the last three renewals of this event, whilst all seven victories gained to date have been over this six furlong trip.

FRIDAY:

Hamilton:

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‘Scottish Stewards Cup’ scheduled for 7.45: Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last four winners.

‘Stayers Handicap’ scheduled for 8.20: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last eight winners and the trainer held seven options earlier in the week.

Class 5 nine furlong contest scheduled for 9.20: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last ten events yet just five potential vintage representatives were involved at the penultimate stage.

Haydock:

Class 4 handicap scheduled for 2.20: Four-year-olds have secured five of the six available toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include both 10/1 and 9/4 winners.

2YO maiden scheduled for 2.50: Three favourites have scored in the last nine years, during which time the biggest priced winner was returned at just 11/2.

Newbury:

Maiden event for fillies scheduled for 1.55: Richard Hannon has saddled two winners and a runner up in the last three years.

Class 4 maiden scheduled for 2.30: Richard Hannon has saddled four of the last nine winners.

‘Rose Bowl Stakes’ scheduled for 3.05: Richard Hannon has won three of the last six contests.

Handicap for fillies scheduled for 3.40: The last six winners have carried 9-0 or more, during which time no successful favourites were recorded.

Newmarket:

Class 5 3YO maiden scheduled for 8.30: Roger Charlton has won with his only two runners in this event in the last six years and the trainer held just one option earlier in the week, namely FEDERATION.

Pontefract:

Class 3 handicap scheduled for 7.35: Nine of the last ten winners have carried weights of 8-13 or more, during which time no successful favourites were recorded.

SATURDAY:

Haydock:

Class 4 handicap scheduled for 8.10: Four-year-olds have secured six of the last eight available toteplacepot positions, stats which include all three winners.  Mark Johnston held six options at the time of writing, five of which were four-year-olds.

Lingfield:

Nursery event scheduled for 6.25: I found myself almost apologising for so many of Richard Hannon’s runners mentioned in despatches last week but as a 25/1 winner emerged from the pack, I will not apologise any more!  Richard comes into this contest on a hat trick and the trainer held two options at the time of writing.

2YO maiden event scheduled for 7.25: Richard Hannon comes to the party on a hat trick with five potential runners at the penultimate entry stage.

Classified event scheduled for 7.55: All eleven three-year-olds have been beaten in this contest since the last vintage representative scored back in 2006.

Claiming event scheduled for 8.25: Six favourites (of one description or another) have secured victory via the last eight contests, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 5/1.

Handicap for fillies scheduled for 8.55: Three-year-olds have secured nine of the available toteplacepot positions, stats which include all four winners.

Newbury:

2YO Conditions event scheduled for 1.45: Richard Hannon comes to the gig on a hat trick with two potential runners entered at the time of writing.

‘Super Sprint’ scheduled for 3.30: Richard Hannon held six entries in a race which he has won four times in the last eight years.

‘Summer Festival Handicap’ scheduled for 5.10: Four-year-olds have secured six of the nine available toteplacepot positions, stats which include two of the three winners which were returned at 12/1 and 6/1.

Handicap for fillies scheduled for 3.40: Three-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals whilst securing five of the last six available toteplacepot positions.

7 furlong  maiden event for three-year-olds scheduled for 4.15.  The last five favourites have prevailed as have six of the seven contests to date.  The biggest priced winner thus far was an 11/4 favourite.

Ripon:

Mixed vintage handicap scheduled for 4.40 (six furlongs): Three-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests whilst securing the last six available toteplacepot positions.

SUNDAY:

Newton Abbot:

Beginners Chase scheduled for 4.00: Paul Nicholls has won the last three renewals and the trainer held just one option at the time of writing, namely BERMUDA BOY.

Redcar:

2YO maiden event scheduled for 2.05: Bryan Smart has won two of the last three renewals and the trainer held two options at the five day stage.

‘Summer Festival Handicap’ schedule for 3.05: All five winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less.

Stratford:

Mixed vintage Novice Hurdle event scheduled for 2.15: Five-year-olds had won the first two renewals of this event before last year’s lone 66/1 representative finished out with the washing.  The race should revert to type this time around.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 replies
  1. Crinos
    Crinos says:

    Matt this is undoubtedly the best indicator for races I have come across in the decades I have been punting. Should you know of a service that can do the same for every single race I would gladly sign up. I know its not foolproof but it is great aid when joined with my many years of experience. Please don’t make the service too expensive if and when you get round to it lol!

  2. Malcolm
    Malcolm says:

    I’m obliged guys…….My motto is that whatever you’re doing, you only get out of life what you are prepared to put in and though studying trends is time consuming, I too have never found a better angle for picking winners.

  3. Malcolm
    Malcolm says:

    29% of the 527 three-year-old handicap winners this season hail from just eight stables. Even ‘tough’ handicap events can be narrowed down if you believe in trends guys…

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