Well I Declare: 14th to 18th August

Well I Declare, 14th to 18th August

Well I Declare: 14th to 18th August

Well I Declare: 14th to 18th August

Going back twelve months for the corresponding meetings made for interesting reading, given that the weather was generally set fair for most of the week with good (perfect) ground reported at several venues.

This is not the case this year as I can testify as my main television was destroyed early on Sunday morning via a thunderbolt which directly hit a house down the road.

Weekly readers will appreciate that this has been anything but a normal period for yours truly but then again, my computer could have been pole-axed I guess, which might have resulted in many of you giving thanks to a superior being.

Upwards and onwards by reporting that this his should be a good time of the year for investors but that was not the case as you will read during the daily offerings.

Between Tuesday and Saturday last year, one hundred and eighty-eight races were contested which produced a market leader strike rate of just 28.7%.

Fifty four favourites obliged, though the successful ’jollies’ were joined by forty-nine gold medallists who were returned in double figures.

The message is as clear as the afore-mentioned lightning strike; tread carefully unless you are playing with ‘swag‘ gained from the old enemy.

With all this mind, we start our week with five meetings from Ayr, Bath, Nottingham, Wolverhampton & Yarmouth.


TUESDAY 14/08:


General stats: Sir Mark Prescott’s Hernando filly Awilda (2.15) represents a trainer who boasts 5/15 figures in the juvenile division.



General stats: Course and distance winner Cats Eyes (4.00) represents trainer Robert Cowell who has saddled three of his five representatives at the venue to winning effect. 

2.00: Two of the last four runners saddled by Ron Hodges have won, with Kyllachy Storm having finished second during the period.  Runner up Kyllachy Storm robbed the yard of securing a 156/1 treble though hopefully, compensation awaits here.



General stats: Ned Curtis has two booked rides at the meeting at the time of writing and though it is ‘early doors’ regarding Ned’s career, it’s worth noting that his ratio at the venue stands at 2/4.  On the training front, Michael Appleby (31%) and Roger Charlton (27%) head Tuesday’s list of represented handlers. 

5.20: Seven of the eight winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared the last six renewals.   Six-year-olds would have been coming to the party on a four-timer has trainers looked at the race, though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion.  Seven of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include six successful market leaders.

5.50: Four-year-olds have secured half (5/10) of the available toteplacepot positions to date whilst having secured two of the last three races.  Four of the five favourites have failed to reach the frame to date, including a 4/7 chance.  Last year’s 14/1 winner piled more misery onto the majority of punters who are still waiting for the first successful market leader.

6.50:  Six of the last seven winners have carried nine stones or more, whilst two of the last four favourites have won, albeit the successful jollies were flanked by a 20/1 and 10/1 gold medallist.  Six of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last dance.

7.20: Memphis Man recorded his fourteenth success last time out though according to my records, the grand David Evans servant has not registered back to back victories for the thick end of five years now.  One of the three favourites (via two renewals) secured a toteplacepot position to date by winning its respective event.



General stats: Mark Johnston only requires three winners to put the trainer on the 100 mark at Wolverhampton during the last five years.  Mark has saddled twenty winners this month via a 24% strike rate at the time of writing, a ratio which has produced an LSP figure of twenty-seven points.



General stats: I alerted you to Ed Walker’s great record here at Yarmouth last week before the trainer saddled a 4/1 winner, taking his strike rate up to 5/9 at the seaside venue.




General stats: Sir Michael Stoute saddled an 86/1 treble on Saturday and the trainer boasts a great 6/13 record here at Beverley in recent times.  Tracy Waggott is another handler to keep on the right side given her LSP figure of twelve points which have been gained via a 22% strike rate.  Last year’s two day meeting got off to a great start for Mel Brittain who saddled a 359/1 treble on the card. 

2.15: Three of the four favourites (winners of their respective races) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far. The other winner scored at 50/1, just to keep your feet well and truly on the ground!

2.45: Although only two of the last nine renewals have been claimed by favourites, eight of the ten favourites have finished in the frame.  Seven winners have scored at odds of 7/2 or less during the last decade.

3.15:  All four winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less, whilst three of the six market leaders have finished in the money (one winner) via four renewals to date.

3.50: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of 8-12, whilst five-year-old have secured three of the last five renewals.  Five favourites have won during the last eleven years, during which time nine of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

4.25:  The last five winners have carried weights of 9-4 or more, whilst five-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer.  Seven of the last eleven winners were returned in double figures, with prices ranging from 10/1 to 50/1.  No favourite has prevailed during the last decade, whilst five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.



General stats: Kieran Fallon stands tall in the saddle via his 34% strike rate figure at Salisbury, statistics which have produced twenty-one points of level stake profits.  As far as trainers are concerned, Alan King (6/24), Richard Price (5/19) and Alastair Lidderdale (2/5) and names to consider.  Five of the six favourites scored on last year’s corresponding card.



General stats: Nicole Nordblad is mentioned in despatches for the first time in this service, given that the jockey sits on the 20% mark (good figures for this venue) via eight winners.



General stats: James Tate is one of the (serious) new trainers to consider, his raiders here having achieved 4/7 status. 




General stats: Only one of the seven races went the way of a market leader on the Thursday card last year, the other six winners ranging in price between 6/1 and 33/1. 



General stats: Punters are due a better day than on this card last year as the winners scored at 28/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-13/2-11/2-11/4* on what was perfect (good) going whereby there were no excuses made on account of the ground. The toteplacepot dividend of £2,421.40 told the story as just two favourites finished in the frame via the opening six races.  Sir Mark Prescott and Peter Chapple-Hyam lead the percentage table of the potentially represented trainers on Thursday.



General stats: This is the start of a three-day meeting which produced a strike rate of 35.0% of winning favourites (7/20) twelve months ago.  Peter Chapple-Hyam (22/1 & 6/1) and Mahmood Al Zarooni (8/1 & Evens--17/1 double on the final day of the fixture) were the only trainers to saddled two winners.  All seven winners on the first day were recorded in single figures, ranging between 8/11 & 9/1.



General stats: Richard Hannon saddled a winner on each day of the meeting twelve months ago, opening the two-day fixture with a successful 15/8 favourite before winning the penultimate race on the Thursday via an 8/1 chance. 



General stats: We have been starved on NH action of late whereby I will report the leading trainers (ratios) in August according to my records: 5/11-Tim Vaughan---3/16-Lucinda Russell---2/6-Donald McCain---2/4--Richard Woollacott---2/5--Philip Hobbs



General stats: Thursday was not a fortunate day for the majority of punters twelve months ago because alongside the poor results at Chepstow, all six favourites were beaten at Stratford, with winners going off at 33/1-25/1-8/1-11/2-5/1-7/2. Charlie Longsdon boasts a 34% strike rate at the track, statistics which have produced nearly twenty-two points of level stake profits.  Daniel Mark Loughnane has scored with both representatives at the track thus far, securing an LSP figure of twenty-one points.  Daniel held two options earlier in the week for this meeting. 


FRIDAY 17/08:


General stats: Favourites backers endured a desperate week last year as you might have already gathered!  This meeting was no different because after the first market leader obliged at 5/1, the other gold medallists scored at 28/1-18/1-11/1-10/1-7/1.  Another four figure toteplacepot dividend was declared.  The message is clear (especially with plenty of rain coming down at the time of writing whereby conditions might change again), ease up with your stakes unless you are playing with the opposition’s money. 



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General stats: The start of a two-day meeting at which four favourites were successful (just the one on Friday) via sixteen races last year.  Patrick Chamings scored the first of two winners at 9/2 on the Friday prior to his 9/1 gold medallist which opened the Saturday card.  Roger Charlton secured a 41/1 double on the opening day.  Four winners were returned in double figures at 20/1 (Richard Price), 16/1 (Roger Charlton), 11/1 (Sir Michael Stoute) and 11/1 (Denis Coakley).

Class 4 two-year-old maiden event scheduled for 1.50: John Gosden and Saeed Bin Suroor have each won two of the six renewals to date, whilst all six favourites have finished in the money to date (three winners).

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs--latest result first):

6-9-5 (15 ran-good)

3-1-8 (15 ran-good)

1-7-6 (11 ran-good)

8-3-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

7-5-12 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-6-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

Thirteen furlong Class 3 handicap scheduled for 2.50: The fact that three-year-olds have not always contested this event suggests that vintage raiders have done well to record four victories during the last decade.  One clear market leader and one joint favourite have prevailed in the last fourteen years (one non runner--withdrawn before a new market could be formed), whilst six of the fourteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Listed St Hugh’s Stakes scheduled for 3.25: Six renewals have slipped by since the last (5/2) favourite obliged. Four favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, with seven of the fourteen market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen renewals.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

2-5-1 (12 ran-good)

7-11-10 (12 ran-good)

3-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-1-2 (18 ran-good to soft)

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-4-12 (12 ran-good)

4-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-13-10 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-2-10 (10 ran-good to firm)

8-7-4 (8 ran-good)

Class 4 six furlong handicap due to be contested at 4.00: Six of the eight winners to date carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst five of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (three winners).

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

3-6-7 (9 ran-good)

2-3 (6 ran-good)

8-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-1-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

15-5-11 (14 ran-good)

3-6-7 (13 ran-good)

2-6-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

14-13-16 (15 ran-good to soft)



General stats: Ed Dunlop held three options for this meeting at the five-day stage, the trainer boasting impressive 5/10 stats during the recent seasons. Just ten points of level stake profits have been realised during the period though looking positively at that scenario, it simply means that Ed’s horses was well fancied before winning their respective events. 



General stats: Two of the six favourites were successful on the middle day of the meeting last year, though the other four winners were returned at odds of 22/1 (Peter Chapple-Hyam), 20/1 (Noel Quinlan), 10/1 A(Andrew Balding) and 9/1 (David Nicholls).



General stats: I struggle with one Nottingham fixture during the course of a week, let alone two!  Out of Interest, Tom Queally sent his supporters home happy twelve months ago by riding the last two winners at odds of 5/1 and 3/1 (23/1 double).



General stats: Chevise (5.45 & 6.45) is doubly engaged at the meeting at the time of writing with Steve Woodman having saddled his fair share of winners at the Sunbury circuit, producing seven points of level stake profits in recent times. 




General stats: Marco Botti and Jim Boyle boast 3/9 ratios on the Roodee at the time of writing, albeit the percentage pales in comparison to Sir Mark Prescott’s impressive 5/10 haul at Chester. 



General stats: Just one of the first three favourites won on last year’s card but far worse was to follow because in keeping with other results up and down the country during the corresponding period, the last five winners were sent off at 14/1-12/1-12/1-11/1-9/1.



General stats: Richard Hannon secured a 74/1 double on the second day of the meeting twelve months ago via winners at 14/1 and 4/1.  Three of the eight favourites prevailed with seven winners returned at 9/1 or less. 

Class 4 juvenile event for fillies over six furlongs scheduled for 1.30:  Richard Hannon has won four of the last seven renewals (14/1 winner last year) and with five entries at the penultimate stage, the trainer was obviously intent on improving his ratio.  Eight favourites have won via the last sixteen renewals, whilst ten market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

10-2-1 (9 ran-good--latest result first)

10-4 (7 ran-good)

11-10-13 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-4-11 (10 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-4-8 (15 ran-good to soft)

5-12-7 (15 ran-good to soft)

9-5-7 (11 ran-good)

3-7-10 (11 ran-good)

7-5-15 (15 ran-good to firm)

16-3-4 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-2-8 (10 ran-good to soft)

6-11-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

11-13-2 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-10-15 (21 ran-good to firm)

‘Washington Singer’ event scheduled for 2.00: John Gosden was winning the race for the third time in the last seven years 12 months ago and the trainer’s only entry earlier in the week was Excess Knowledge.  Mark Johnston has saddled two gold medallists during the John’s recent reign and Steeler was the only entry from Mark’s stable at the five-day stage.  Six clear market leaders and two joint favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years.  Nine of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Group 3 event thirteen furlong event scheduled for 2.30:  Seven of the last twelve favourites have won whilst four-year-olds have snared four of the last seven renewals of this ‘Geoffrey Freer’ contest.

Group 2 Hungerford Stakes due to be contests at 3.05:  Four-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, though three-year-olds have won three of the last four contests.  Four clear marker leaders and one joint favourite have won in the last fourteen years.  Seven of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

3-7-11 (9 ran-good)

6-9 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4-10 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-2-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

8-2 (7 ran-good to soft)

8-3-5 (9 ran-good)

7-11-6 (13 ran-good)

4-5-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

6-3-8 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-2 (7 ran-good)

4-2-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

Ten furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 4.10: Six renewals have slipped by since the last (100/30) favourite obliged though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was a 6/1 chance.  The last five winners carried weights of 9-2 or more.

Lady riders finale scheduled for 4.45: We still await the first successful favourite via five renewals whilst three-year-olds have won three contests thus far.  Sarah Brotherton has secured two gold, one silver and one bronze medal via her last four rides in the race and the pilot was ‘jocked aboard’ both Hamilton Hill and The Quarterjack at the time of writing!



General stats: In contrast to the rest of the week, the last three favourites (of seven) at the meeting sent the majority of punters home happy.  Only Mick Channon (16/1), Tony Carroll (11/1), Mahmood Al Zarooni (8/1) and David Barron (8/1) scored on behalf of the layers. 



General stats: Tim Easterby secured a 58/1 double at the meeting twelve months ago, having also saddled a 12/1 winner at Doncaster earlier in the afternoon, completing a 772/1 treble on the day.



General stats: David Simcock saddled a 30/1 at the meeting last year, whilst Roger Charlton’s 41% strike rate at the course makes for impressive reading.  Having saddled four of his last eleven runners to winning effect at the time of writing, Roger could be set for another good day at ‘Leafy Lingfield’ as it used to be referred to by regulars on the ‘Victoria rattler’ in times gone by.


Market Rasen:

General stats: Tim Vaughan, Peter Bowen and David Pipe invariably saddle winners at this time of year and sure enough, each of the three trainers was in the area reserved for the winner of one race apiece on the card twelve months ago.

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7 replies
  1. wordtweaker1Peter Colledge says:

    Could be a portent Mal. A higher being unamused by your efficiency and competence.

  2. matthew. says:

    i think its very good of you all to put a lot of time into the column,i for one are very grateful.

  3. Eric Dixon says:

    I have to wonder if falling out of bed sober and just missing a bolt of lightening are ideal qualities for a tipster given that, accurate stats notwithstanding, some good luck is also neede when tackling the ring!! Thanks for the heads up on James Tate – could be a trainer to follow with the right staking system until a pattern emerges from his runners

  4. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Cheers Ray—thanks for all your positive comments–makes this site a one-off!

Comments are closed.