Well I Declare: 15th September

Well I Declare: 15th September

Well I Declare: 15th September

Well I Declare: 15th September

It's another busy day today and most eyes will be focused on the St Leger meeting at Doncaster, but we mustn't forget that there's still some decent action scheduled elsewhere at Bath, Chester, Newcastle and Kempton. Here's a second chance to see Mal Boyle's preview of the day from earlier in the week as he analyses...

...SATURDAY 15/9:

DONCASTER:

General stats: You have to admire Aidan O’Brien.  Despite having the long odds on favourite for the final classic of the season, the trainer was responsible for six of the sixteen five-day declarations earlier in the week, with Aidan leaving nothing to chance.

Class 2 one mile handicap scheduled for 1.50: Three-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals, whilst two favourites have won in the last nine years.  Eight of the fourteen recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

‘Champagne Stakes’ due to be contested at 2.25: Richard Hannon broke his recent hoodoo in the contest by saddling last year’s winner (Trumpet Major) and the trainer looks to hold the ace in the pack this time around with Toronado.  Five favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

‘Portland Handicap’ scheduled for 3.00: The last ten winners have carried 8-12 or more, whilst five-year-olds have won the last five renewals.  Four favourites have won during the last fifteen years, which is a perfectly respectable ratio given the competitive nature of this event.  Level stake punters would have shown a profit of £700.00 for a one hundred pound investment on market leaders during the study period.  Seven of the last eighteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process, though last year’s favourite finished fifth!  Nine of the last eleven winners were returned at odds ranging between 11/1 and 20/1.

'Draw factor' (five and a half furlongs)

15-7-16-19 (21 ran-good to firm)

7-6-16-8 (22 ran-good)

16-22-2-17 (22 ran-good to firm)

18-9-14-21 (21 ran-soft)

21-11-14-12 (21 ran-good to firm)

5-22-7-4 (21 ran-good to firm)

13-1-8-12 (22 ran-good)

15-22-8-9 (22 ran-good)

20-16-11-2 (22 ran-good)

9-16-19-14 (22 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9-16 (22 ran-good)

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16-20-22-18 (21 ran-good to firm)

10-14-8-3 (21 ran-good)

6-22-19-7 (22 ran-good to firm)

‘St Leger’ scheduled for 3.40: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last fifteen years.  Fourteen of the sixteen favourites have finished in the frame during the study period.  Aidan O’Brien has won the St Leger three times during the last eleven years which adds confidence to his hot favourite Camelot.  John Gosden has saddled three of the last five winners of the final classic of the season and John comes to the party this year on a hat trick.  A line through Main Sequence suggests that Thought Worthy should not finish too far behind the favourite, if he finishes behind him at all.

‘Park Stakes’ due to be contested at 4.15: Older horses (aged four or more) have secured six of the last seven renewals of this event, whilst seven of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two successful market leaders.

One mile Nursery event scheduled for 4.50: Favourites come to the gig on a four timer though the handicapper would not appreciate the market leader scoring again.  Five of the last 11 favourites have finished in the frame (three winners).  If early jockey bookings ‘float your boat’, Jamie Spencer was jocked aboard Glory Awaits for Kevin Ryan as early as Monday afternoon, the only pilot to have been ‘confirmed’ at the time.

Class 2 twelve furlong handicap scheduled for 5.20: Four of the last six renewals have fallen the way of favourites of one description or another.  Three and four-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last eight renewals, whilst junior representatives come to the gig on a hat trick on this occasion.

 

BATH:

General stats: Robert Cowell’s 4/7 ratio stands out from the west country crowd. Denis Coakley’s LSP reading of sixty-seven points (via ten winners) catches the eye.

 

CHESTER:

General stats: Marco Botti has saddled three of his nine runners on the Roodee to winning effect.

 

NEWCASTLE:

General stats: Rae Guest has his team in sparkling from at the time of writing (last three runners in this country have won) and his 5/15 strike rate at Newcastle is worth reporting. 

 

KEMPTON:

General stats: John Balding only held two options all week, one of which was Point North who is scheduled to contest the 8.55 event at the time of writing.  John’s 3/14 ratio at Kempton is backed up by an LSP reading of thirteen points.

1 reply
  1. alan craik says:

    Portland Handicap’ scheduled for 3.00: The last ten winners have carried 8-12 or more, whilst five-year-olds have won the last five renewals. Four favourites have won during the last fifteen years, which is a perfectly respectable ratio given the competitive nature of this event.

    Mal,
    well done
    only one horse came close to the criteria
    so had a little wager on Doc Hay at 20/1 winner,

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