Well, I Declare! 16th June

Well I Declare, 16th June 2012

Well, I Declare! 16th June

Well, I Declare! 16th June

Good Morning everyone, we're a meeting down already today, as Leicester has fallen foul of the weather, but we've still got action planned for Bath, Sandown,York, Lingfield and Hexham, so we should have something for everyone in today's preview.




General stats: Sir Mark Prescott’s 37% strike rate via 7/19 figures is worth noting as Mark held four entries for Bath at the time of writing.




General stats: Sir Michael Stoute‘s three year old record (26% strike rate via twenty-four winners during the last five years) is outstanding, not withstanding Jeremy Noseda’s wonderfully consistent ratios as mentioned for Friday’s meeting. 

Nine furlong Class 3 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 2.20: Just one favourite has obliged during the last thirteen years, whilst seven of the fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Listed ‘Scurry Stakes’ scheduled for 3.25: Three market leaders have been successful via seven renewals, though three of the other four favourites finished out of the frame.

Class 4 five furlong handicap scheduled for 4.00: All six winners have been burdened with a minimum of 8-11 thus far.  Two of the six favourites have troubled the judge to date (no winners).  This was known as ‘Timeform Day’ down the years though I have long since regarded the date as a bookmaker’s extravaganza, designed to get as much money into the hod before Royal Ascot as the layers can muster!

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Seven furlong Class 3 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 4.30: Six of the seven favourites have been beaten, claiming four toteplacepot positions between them to date. The biggest priced winner was returned at 12/1, whilst twelve of the twenty-one horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions have started at odds of 6/1 or less.

Ten furlong 3YO maiden event scheduled for 5.00: Six of the last eight winners have scored at 100/1--33/1--25/1--8/1--8/1--6/1, whilst the last eight favourites have been beaten (including an 8/13 odds on chance), with nine of the last fifteen market leaders having claimed toteplacepot positions.



General stats: Please note John Dunlop’s figures mentioned in dispatches for Friday, whilst Ryan Moore rides the Knavesmire as well as any other jockey (better than most) as his 22% strike rate confirms.  That percentage figure hails from twenty-two winners which have produced level stake profits of eighteen points during the last five years. 

Twelve furlong Class 3 handicap scheduled for 2.05:  Six of the twelve favourites during the last decade have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders.  Crackentorp was one of thirty-five penultimate stage entries, Tim Easterby's potential raider having secured gold and bronze medals via the last two renewals of the amateur rider contest.

Class 2 nine furlong handicap due to be sent off at 2.35: Market leaders have claimed five of the last seven available toteplacepot positions during which time, three favourites have prevailed which is a decent return in what is usually a competitive event.  Six-year-olds have won three of the last five contests.

Six furlong handicap (Class 2) scheduled for 3.10: Five renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged, the quintet of gold medallists having been sent off at odds ranging between 9/1 and 20/1.  All nine winners during the last decade carried weights of 9-1 or less.

Class 4 nine furlong handicap scheduled for 4.15: Four-year-olds have secured three of the five contests. Two favourites having been successful thus far, though the other three market leaders finished out of the frame. Four of the five gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 9-2.

Six furlong juvenile maiden scheduled for 4.45: Favourites have won six of the nine contests during the last decade with market leaders coming to this year's gig on a hat trick.

Class 4 six furlong handicap scheduled for 5.15: Only one (joint) favourite has obliged via the last nine renewals, whilst the last four winners have carried weights of 9-6 or more.



General stats: Henry Candy is something of a ‘dark horse’ at Lingfield given his four winners from just twelve runners in recent times.



General stats: Blue Destination (due to contest the 4.35 event) was John Quinn’s only potential runner on the card earlier in the week, the trainer matching Sir Mark Prescott’s Bath ratio (7/19 = 37% strike rate) on Saturday.

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