Well I Declare: 16th to 20th October

Well I Declare: 16th to 20th October

Well I Declare: 16th to 20th October

Well I Declare: 16th to 20th October

Last week’s ‘successful haul’ of twelve winners (including an 18/1 chance) shows how difficult it can be at this time of year to reap rewards, however much one utilises the ‘midnight oil’ in the quest to find gold medallists.

On the corresponding Friday and Saturday fixtures last year, sixty-eight races were staged in this green and pleasant land and according to my records.....sixty six different trainers saddled winners!

These are phenomenal statistics...for the wrong reasons.

In the flat racing sector, every man and his dog is out to saddle a winner in order to keep owners for the forthcoming winter period.

On the NH front, form has yet to gather enough pace to indicate that punters can even take this week's Cheltenham cards too seriously, especially when digesting the fact that last year’s fourteen races produced fourteen successful trainers!

Paul Nicholls managed to saddle a 15/8 winner as you might expect (as an example), though all three of his market leaders were beaten.

Upwards and onwards for this week's positive corresponding trends (Tuesday through Saturday), however minor they might be!

FLAT: 

4 winners--Richard Hannon (three successful market leaders)
4--Saeed Bin Suroor (one favourite)
4--Mark Johnston (one favourite)

Others of interest:
Marco Botti saddled winners at 12/1, 4/1 & 7/2
Brian Meehan (10/1, 6/1 & 11/4)
Paul Midgley (14/1 & 13/2)

NH: 

3--Jennie Candlish (two favourites)

Others of interest:
Robin Dickin saddled 8/1 & 5/1 winners
Lucinda Russell (8/1 & 9/2)
Michael Blake (13/2 & 9/4*)

In the wake researching such statistics, I am going to draw your attention to Lucinda Russell this week as I have been monitoring the trainer for some time now under the NH code.

Last five-year NH records of trainer Lucinda Russell (185 winners):

Lucinda has quite suddenly emerged from being a good trainer to a very fine one indeed, as her last thirteen runners highlight.  Five winners were backed by three silver and two bronze medallists for good measure.

Twenty seven winners this season is only two short of her entire total for the 2009/2010 campaign, whilst last year’s (record) haul of fifty-seven will be comfortably be passed not long into the new year according to the gospel of yours truly.

The loss of Campbell Gillies was a blow to the Sport of Kings and no mistake, though to Lucinda in particular as the excellent young pilot had ridden fifty-seven winners for the trainer during his all too brief career.

With Peter Buchanan having steered one hundred and one of Lucinda’s winners to victory during the study period, the two jockeys have secured over eighty-five per cent of her winners.  We might expect Rose Dobbin to get more rides now, given her 3/7 stats for the trainer.

119 (64.3% of all Lucinda’s winners) have emerged in handicap races which is the toughest sector of all, illuminating Lucinda’s great gift of handling and placing her horses to good effect.  Seventy eight of those winners were gained in steeplechase events for the record.

Watch out for Lucinda’s runners in Claiming events as her 3/9 record suggests that Lucinda will be targeting more of these contests in the months and years to come.

67% of Lucinda’s winners have been secured at just five race courses, though her 13% strike rate at Cheltenham stands up to the mark, whilst her 20/1 gold medallist at Ascot from just three runners at the Berkshire venue confirms that Lucinda can ‘mix it in foreign parts’.

Those five tracks I mentioned are Perth (32 winners), Hexham (27), Ayr (23), Kelso (22) and Carlisle (20).

Can Lucinda mix it when the going gets tough?  Lucinda has saddled more winners in March (27) than at any other time in the calendar, possibly the most competitive time to train winners during the entire season.

I often get carried away with level stake profits of certain trainers, though this does not apply to Lucinda Russell and her team.

Whilst it’s good to home in on trainers that reward investors for backing every horse they run at certain venues,  it is as well to remember that trainers who do not excel in such terms tend to win with more fancied horses, which as any punter will confirm, is never a bad thing!

 

Day to-day analysis:

TUESDAY 16/10:

Leicester:

General stats: James Tate (saddles Cape Explorer in the 5.10 contest) boasts a 50% ratio via a 5/10 strike rate at the Oadby circuit.

2.10: Five of the last ten favourites have won, whilst six of the fifteen market leaders reached the frame during the study period.  Nine of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 3/1, whilst the other gold medallist was returned at 6/1.

2.40: Four-year-olds have secured eight of the 12 available toteplacepot positions thus far (stats include two of the four winners), whilst the first two favourites won this contest prior to the last two market leaders having finished fourth in their respective events, both losing out from a toteplacepot perspective.

3.10: Three favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst twelve recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions via fifteen ‘divisions’ of late.

4.40: Deficit missed the break on his debut and with Michael Bell having waxed lyrical about the April foal earlier in the year, the Dalakhani colt is definitely given another chance here. Now Spun (green as grass first time up) is nominated as the main threat to Deficit. Five of the last eight favourites have won this toteplacepot finale with the other two of the other three market leaders securing the silver medal during the period.

4.10: Three-year-olds have won all three renewals thus far, whilst two of the three favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include one winner.

5.10 & 5.40 (two divisions): Three-year-olds have won four of the last six contests.

Newcastle: ABANDONED AT 0800

General stats: Hi Troja (2.00) potentially represents Ed Dunlop whose record at Newcastle stands at 5/12 in recent years.  Newcastle hold an inspection at eight o’clock on Tuesday morning to see if racing can be staged.

 

Huntingdon:

General stats: Danny Cook has one ride on the card in the 2.20 event when riding Musnad for Brian Ellison.  Danny boasts a strike rate of 7/22 at Huntingdon, stats which have produced level profit stakes of nearly thirty points.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: There are three meetings at Dunstall Park this week when Mark Johnston will surely record his one hundredth winner at the venue in the last five years.

 

WEDNESDAY 17/10:

Kempton:

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General stats: Violet Jordan (2/4 at the track) saddles her course and distance winner Perfect Honour on Wednesday.
Lingfield:

General stats: This is the first meeting on the newly laid surface whereby readers are advised to give the course time to prove itself, one way or the other!
Nottingham:

General stats: Lucy Wadham held three entries at the time of writing at a track where the trainer has saddled two winners via just five runners. 
Wetherby:

General stats: Charlie Longsdon’s 43% strike rate (6/14) stands out from the crowd at Wetherby and with eleven potential runners on Wednesday, Charlie is obviously intent on saddling more winners at the venue.

Three-year-old maiden hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Two of the last fifteen favourites have obliged, whilst nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.25: Nine of the last 12 winners of this handicap hurdle event have carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst five clear market leaders have won via the last fourteen renewals, alongside one joint and two co favourites.  Fifteen of the nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.55: Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 10-12 or less.  Nine of the seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event due to be contested at 4.30: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last 10 renewals whilst eight of the last ten favourites in this event have won, with 3/1 and 9/2 shots having snared gold in the other contests.  Twelve of the seventeen market leaders have finished in the frame during an extended period, statistics which include ten winners.

Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 5.00: Evan Williams come into the race on a hat trick having held just the one entry (One In A Million) at the four-day stage.  Two of the four favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the finale, statistics which include one winner.

THURSDAY 18/10:

Kempton:

General stats: With two Nursery events on the card, it’s worth noting that with a 32% strike rate at the venue in the relevant sector, favourites have a reasonable record at Kempton.


Uttoxeter:

General stats: Richard Woollacott’s figures of 3/5 make for exceptional reading.

Wincanton:

General stats: With four booked rides at the meeting early in the week, my attention is drawn to Conor O’Farrell whose strike rate stands at 33% following eight winners at Wincanton in recent times.  Michael Blake's 4/16 stats read well, albeit all the usual suspects in the training sector in this part of world take some beating when they are represented.  No names, no pack drill…..required!

 

FRIDAY 19/10:

Cheltenham:

General stats: It might surprise you to learn that Tim Vaughan has saddled fifty-seven consecutive losers at Prestbury Park.  Other leading trainers who have struggled in recent times include Gary Moore (2/50) and Donald McCain (4/83).


Haydock:

General stats: Richard Kingscote has three booked rides at the time of writing, the jockey boasting an LSP figure of sixty-four points via a strike rate of 24% (22/91) during the last five years. 


Fakenham:

General stats: Those of us here in the ‘watery west’ are amazed to read of Fakenham watering their track at the time of writing, albeit I lived in the east of the country for over fifty years!  Underrated pilot Jack Quinlan has five booked rides, boasting a strike rate of 5/19, stats which have produced an LSP figure of over eighteen points. 


Redcar:

General stats: Jamie Spencer does not travel to Cleveland too often, though his 7/22 strike rate suggests that his rate of pay in the county is more than adequate!


Wolverhampton:

General stats: Favourite backers have not fared too badly in the last five years at the track, given the stats of 42% in non handicap events and 30% in handicap races, especially when taking 3,370 races into account!

 

SATURDAY 20/10:

Ascot:

General stats: James Fanshawe is one of the few trainers who can boast a 19% strike at Ascot (10/52) during the last five years, whilst it’s worth noting that the trainer has not saddled a juvenile at the racecourse during the study period.

 

Catterick:

General stats: Ed Dunlop is making up for a poor season (by his high standards) late doors to a fashion and anything that Ed sends to Catterick is worth a second glance via his 3/5 ratio.

‘Catterick Dash’ scheduled for 2.50: Four-year-olds have secured six of the last ten contests.

Seven furlong juvenile event scheduled for 3.25: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last ten winners.  Four of the last seven favourites have obliged.

Cheltenham:

General stats: Make of these level stake figures what you well at Cheltenham during the last five years; Nicky Henderson has accrued forty points of profit, against a loss of seventy-seven by Paul Nicholls.  Don’t shoot the messenger!

Class 2 handicap chase scheduled for 2.30: Six-year-olds have secured five of the last nine contests.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.40: We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals.  Eight-year-olds have won three of the five contests thus far.  Philip Hobbs had secured a medal of each colour before the trainer ‘upped the ante’ by securing a second winner twelve months ago.  Just like last year, Balthazar King was Philip’s only option at the five-day stage.

Class 3 handicap hurdle over two miles and five furlongs scheduled for 4.20: The last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.30: Eight renewals have passed by since the last favourite obliged, whilst five-year-olds have secured six of the last ten contests.

Kelso:

General stats: Only Nicky Richards (23 winners) can beat Lucinda’s figures at Kelso (22) during the last five years, as mentioned in the first part of this week’s content.

Class 4 handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.50:  No winning favourite recorded since 2004 (seven renewals).

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Conveniently ignoring runaway leader Mark Johnston (mentioned earlier in despatches), it’s worth noting that three other leading trainers have saddled plenty of winners at Wolverhampton during the last five years, namely Kevin Ryan (61), Richard Fahey (60) and Tom Dascombe (56).

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10 replies
  1. chris says:

    Would it be possible to produce this as a PDF each week so that it could be saved for reference? I’d appreciate that as I value Mal’s ideas.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Chris

      The closest I can suggest is that you copy the page in to Microsoft Word, or another word processing software, and save as a pdf.
      I’m afraid we provide website content and can’t consider such requests, alas.

      Very pleased you value the ideas – you’re not alone! 🙂

      Best,
      Matt

  2. Brian says:

    Matt’s email notifying me of this update and Mal’s first sentence give the misleading impression that backing the ‘successful haul’ of 12 winners would have given followers of this thread a profit. This is the first time I’ve looked back through the results but backing all of the runners of the highlighted trainers would, by my reckoning, have produced 14 wins from 143 runners and a 58.3 points loss to industry SP.

    This is of course just 1 week’s results at a difficult time of year and I’m sure the statistics that Mal produces have merit in narrowing down selections. My point is simply to tone down the misleading rhetoric about this thread as it could result in some readers believing that there’s pots of money in backing selections blindly.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Brian

      It wasn’t our intention to mislead (of course), and we’ll not be referencing these sort of numbers in the future. Thanks for pointing it out.

      Matt

    • Chris Worrall says:

      In fairness to both Mal and Matt, I was responsible for the email you received. Looking back now on Mal’s original copy, it would now seem that by putting the words successful haul in quotes, there was an element of irony/sarcasm that I didn’t pick up on originally, since a return of twelve winners is well down on Mals’ usual excellent figures.

      The error was mine and I hold my hands up on this one, it is never my intention to mislead, nor was it on this occasion, just pre and simple huan error for which I apologise.

      Regards,
      Chris

    • oneman says:

      Hi Brian.

      I am just a punter like youon here but please remember. This is just a guide. I would like to put this information out each day with potential bets and also use Andy newtons top trainer stats for the week as well , I tried this for the first time last week, but found ISP and hotmail problems. Hope for better things this week. All i want to do is put up the trainer bets and any one mentioned within this blog stats each day and give a true result for the next day( things change in the week and we only get one of these great reports once a week ) I love following them both and only wish people like you could have a up date,once a day, rather than once a week, If you would like to help during the week. Then that would be great! Thing is where do we start if we are doing our own thing and loving it? All i want is to use the stats / give the potential bets out and record the results. This is all for me and my future stats , but if anyone else would like to know then that is why i will put it out on here.

      out for nought, with good results, carn’t be a bad thing

      Kind Regards

      Chris.

  3. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    I think it’s only fair to point out that Matt did not ask me to ‘pump up the volume’ a few weeks back when a 125/1 winner was one of many more winners that week!

  4. Greg says:

    Hi Matt,
    I found Well I Declare: 16th to 20th October very informative and very useful I hope this will be on going. Best wishes,
    Greg.

  5. pth (@pth61) says:

    I totally agree with Brian at first glance it looks and reads like like you have advised 18 winners without any other horse coming into the fore.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      pth,

      You’re quite within your rights to agree with Brian, it was a mistake made by myself and I’ve already held my hands up on it.
      Time to move on, I think.

      Chris

Comments are closed.