Well, I Declare!

Well I Declare, 17th April 2012

Well, I Declare!

Well, I Declare!

Good Morning, here's the latest instalment of Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature, your preview of the upcoming race meetings, with an aim of finding those often-elusive winners!

TUESDAY 17/04:

Exeter:

General stats: Tom Bellamy (rides Soulard in the 3.00 event) has won on two of three horses he has ridden at Exeter. 

2.30: Five-year-olds have won all three renewals thus far, whilst favourites have secured one gold and two silver medals, securing toteplacepot positions in the process.

3.00: Both market leaders had failed to complete the course before last year’s market leader finished third in securing a toteplacepot position.

3.30: Two of the five favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions without winning their respective events, whilst nine-year-olds have won three of the five contests.

4.30: Six of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last decade during which time, four market leaders have prevailed.  Six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals and only Easter Meteor represents the vintage on this occasion.

5.00: Five-year-olds have won the last four contests the last three of which, were returned as successful market leaders.  Five of the last seven renewals have been won by market leaders during which time, six gold medallists scored at odds of 7/2 or less.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Twenty nine of Nicky Henderson’s sixty three winners at Kempton during the last five years have emerged in the hurdle sector.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Jamie Spencer has won on three of his last seven mounts and boasting a 37% strike rate at Southwell in recent times, Jamie’s booked rides should be treated with plenty of respect. 

 

WEDNESDAY 18/04:

Beverley:

 

General stats: Don’t forget that with the stall positions having been changed at right-handed circuits, low numbers should have the edge at Beverley. 

1.40: Favourites have won four of the last six renewals and if you didn’t hear the interview with Bill Turner (five juvenile winners via just ten runners at the time of writing) the other day, the trainer suggested that Hillbilly Boy should make amends for his debut defeat next time out.  Eight of the nine winners have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less.

2.45: This is the second division for the opening race on the Beverley card (1.40) whereby the same stats apply.

3.20: Four-year-olds come into the contest on a four-timer.  Three of the six favourites (via five renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include one winner.

3.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine contests during which time, every winner was returned at odds of 9/1 or less, stats which include four successful market leaders.  The last six winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-1.

4.30: The first three favourites obliged before (lo and behold) the shortest priced market leader to date (4/5) failed to finish in the frame twelve months ago.  All four winners carried weights of 9-4 or less to victory.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Five trainers saddled two winners during the two day meeting: Mahmood Al Zarooni: 6/1 & 4/1---Richard Hannon: 25/1 & 100/30---Barry Hills: 6/1 & 11/4*---Mark Johnston: 9/4 & 7/2*---Richard Fahey: 4/1 & 14/1.  Favourite record: 4/16

1.50: Barry Hills has saddled four of the last seven winners and Charlie saddles Moss Hill and Qannass on this occasion.  It’s worth noting that Barry saddled a 102/1 treble on the card three years ago before saddling a winner on each of the two days in both 2011 and 2012. Charlie will no doubt have his horses primed for the two-day meeting.  Four of the twelve favourites have won via the last eleven renewals, whilst ten market leaders finished in the frame.

2.25: Eight favourites have prevailed during the last fourteen years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions. Twelve of the fourteen gold medallists were returned at odds of 5/1 or less, the other winners having both scored at 10/1.  Favourites come to this year’s gig on a five-timer, whilst this race has proved to be a positive pointer towards Royal Ascot in the last five years.  The 2009 winner (Art Connoisseur) went to win the Coventry Stakes whilst Gilded followed up by landing the ’Queen Mary’ having won this contest four years ago. Sandwiched in between was Spirit Of Sharjah who finished third in the Norfolk Stakes before running second in the ’Flying Childers’ later in the season.  Last year’s winner Jack Who’s He was ‘only’ beaten six and a quarter lengths in the ’Coventry’ when sent off a no hoper at odds of 50/1.

3.00: Barry Hills saddled last year’s runner up in the first running of this event and son Charlie has a decent chance of going one better than dad via BALTY BOYS who scored at the first time of asking last season.  Contesting lots of decent races last year, BALTY BOYS ended in first campaign by running Crusade to a length and a quarter in the Group 1 ’Middle Park’ as a 40/1 chance.   Last year’s inaugural 100/30 favourite could only finished third behind 4/1 and 7/1 chances.

3.35: Richard Hannon grabs the headlines here, as the trainer has snared three gold, four silver and two bronze medals during the last 14 years.  Richard saddles his Strategic Prince colt REDACT this time around. Three of the last six favourites have prevailed, whilst nine of the last 14 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions (four winners). All 14 winners during the study period were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

4.10: John Gosden was winning his third ‘Nell Gwyn’ in the last thirteen years when Infallible justified favouritism three years ago.  STARSCOPE is the stable representative this time around and with the trainer boasting a great record at this two-day meeting, John’s raider deserves plenty of respect.  Five favourites have won this trial for the 1,000 Guineas in recent times, whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the fourteen year study period.

4.45: Seven of the sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the last thirteen years, statistics which include three winners.

5.20: John Gosden has declared his Galileo colt Shantaram who will be John’s fifth runner in the race, the trainer having saddled 20/1 and 7/1 winners in the contest thus far.  We still await the first successful market leaders following four renewals.

 

Cheltenham:

General stats: Last year’s stats at this two day meeting: 3 winners--P. Hobbs (15/2--9/2--Evens*)--2 winners---Paul Nicholls (11/4 & 11/10*)---Favourite record: 7/14

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.00: Six of the last nine renewals have been secured by the favourite whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 7/1.  Paul Nicholls has saddled three winners during the study period.

Three and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.35: All four favourites had finished out of the frame (via three renewals) before last year’s successful 2/1 market leader stopped the rot. Nine of the twelve horses to have secured toteplacepot positions carried a minimum weight of 11-3.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3/10: Philip Hobbs has saddled tow of the last three winners and the trainer held three options for this year’s renewal at the time of writing.

Grade 2 Silver Trophy Chase scheduled for 3.45: Favourites have won five contests during the last decade during which time, Paul Nicholls has saddled four gold medallists.  Eight-year-olds come to this year’s gig on a four-timer.

Three mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.20: Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 10-11 or more, whilst favourites have secured four of the last seven contests.  Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last seven renewals with six year’s old coming into the race on a four-timer on this occasion.  Nine winners during the last decade have won at odds of 9/1 or less.

Class 2 novice chase scheduled for 4.55: Although ‘only’ three favourites have won during the last decade (market leaders come to the part on a hat trick this time around), the biggest priced winner during the last decade was returned at just 6/1.  Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals and with nine of the fourteen penultimate entries hailing from the vintage, seven-year-olds were 8/15 to extend the run before form was taken into consideration.

Conditional jockeys/Amateur riders event scheduled for 5.30: All four winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more whilst favourites come into the race on a hat trick.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Respectfully, I am not sure exactly who P.A.Deal is but this is a lucky owner at the track and no mistake. Three of his four runners have snared gold medals to date!  His only runner on the card is Kozmina Bay (6.50). 

 

THURSDAY 19/04:

Newmarket:

General stats: Five trainers saddled two winners during the two day meeting: Mahmood Al Zarooni: 6/1 & 4/1---Richard Hannon: 25/1 & 100/30---Barry Hills: 6/1 & 11/4*---Mark Johnston: 9/4 & 7/2*---Richard Fahey: 4/1 & 14/1.  Favourite record: 4/16.

Juvenile event scheduled for 1.50: Four favourites have won during the last fourteen years, whilst nine market leaders snared toteplacepot positions during the period.  The biggest priced winner during the last decade was an 11/1 chance (last year).

‘Wood Ditton’ scheduled for 2.25: Nine of the seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (five winners) during the fourteen year study period.

‘Tattersalls Millions’ event scheduled for 3.00: All three favourites have finished out with the washing behind winners returned at 25/1 (Richard Hannon), 9/1 (Michael Bell) and 8/12 (John Gosden).

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Listed ‘Abernant Stakes’ scheduled for 3.35: Four-year-olds have won five renewals during the last 14 years, whilst claiming sixteen of the forty one available toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Three market leaders have prevailed (within the last eight years), whilst seven of the fifteen favourites have reached the frame during the study period.

Group 3 ‘Craven Stakes’ due to be contested at 4.10: Nine of the fifteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions (six winners) during the study period.  Favourites have won four of the last five renewals (the other winner scored at 9/4) with market leaders coming into this year’s event on a four-timer.

‘Earl of Sefton’ event scheduled for 4.45: Four-year-olds have claimed eight of the last fourteen renewals whilst securing over half (20/35) of the available toteplacepot positions.  Ten of the sixteen market leaders have reached the frame (three winners) during the study period.

Three-year-old maiden event for fillies scheduled for 5.20: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last eight winners and with Ryan Moore already booked to ride Albanka (Michael’s only option in the contest at the penultimate entry stage), the Giant’s Causeway filly will be on my short list, albeit she lacks big race entries at this moment in time.  Nine winners during the last decade have been returned at odds of 15/2 or less, stats which include three successful favourites.

Eight renewals have slipped by since a favourite obliged in the closing one and a quarter-mile handicap contest which is scheduled for 5.50.  Mark Johnston has secured two of the last three contests with the trainer holding four options for this year’s event at the time of writing.

 

Ripon:

General stats: John Gosden (3/7), Sir Henry Cecil (4/11), William Haggas (8/27) and Brian Meehan (5/17) all boast good ratios at Ripon and held options at the meeting at the time of writing.

 

Cheltenham:

General stats: Last year’s stats at this two-day meeting: 3 winners--P. Hobbs (15/2--9/2--Evens*)--2 winners---Paul Nicholls (11/4 & 11/10*)---Favourite record: 7/14.

Two mile five furlong handicap chase scheduled for 2.35: The last three winners have scored at 33/1-14/1-10/1 whilst three other winners during the last decade were returned at odds ranging between 10/1 and 12/1).  Seven of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, stats which include three successful favourites.

Class 2 (Ian Williams) handicap chase scheduled for 3.45: Philip Hobbs leads Paul Nicholls 3-2 during the last decade whilst nine-year-olds have secured six of the ten contests.  Three favourites have scored since 2004 which in the context of this competitive event is a decent record.  Five of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame whilst all ten gold medallists scored at odds of 17/2 or less.

Three mile Class 2 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.20: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals whilst the only successful favourites during the period emerged in the last two years.  Only three of the twelve favourites secured toteplacepot positions.

Conditional jockeys’ event scheduled for 4.55: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions, stats which include one successful market leader.

Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-4 via nine renewals of the closing mares bumper event.  Nicky Henderson has secured three of the last seven contests.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: In a busy week at Newmarket, it was a little surprising to find a lone Sir Henry Cecil entry on the card as Lord Nandi potentially represents the stable in the 7.35 event.  Henry boasts a strike rate of 24% (9/37) at Wolverhampton which has produced a level stake profit of nearly thirteen points. 

 

FRIDAY 20/04:

Newbury:

General stats: Three trainers saddled two winners at last year‘s two day meeting: Richard Hannon (8/1 & 4/1**)---John Gosden (7/1 & 4/1*)---Sir Henry Cecil (3/1 & 1/4*). Favourite record: 4/16.

Juvenile event scheduled for 2.10: Eight of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners).

Seven furlong 3YO handicap event scheduled for 2.35: Two of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (no winners).

3YO maiden fillies event scheduled for 3.15: Six of the last eight market leaders have won whilst eleven of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen years.

Ten furlong 3YO maiden fillies event scheduled for 3.50: Ten of the last eleven favourites have been beaten, though nine of those market leaders at least managed to reach the frame.

3YO conditions event scheduled for 4.25: Four favourites have prevailed which is not a bad record at all, though nine of the other ten market leaders missed out on toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

Bath:

General stats: In a potentially busy week for the trainer, Marcus Tregoning has found time to enter Lady Rosamunde for the scheduled 5,00 event, Marcus having saddled ten of his last thirty three runners at Bath to winning effect. 

 

Ayr:

General stats: Four trainers saddled two winners at last year‘s two day meeting: Paul Nicholls (9/2** & 1/10*)---Nicky Henderson (11/2** & 5/4*)---Ferdy Murphy (14/1 & 11/1)---Howard Johnson (9/2 & 4/1). Favourite record: 6/14.

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last nine winners and the trainer was also responsible for the only successful three favourites to oblige during the last decade.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.25: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four contests.

Four favourites have obliged via seven renewals of the closing three-mile handicap hurdle which was due to be contested at 5.35:

 

Fontwell:

General stats: Kim Bailey has enjoyed a fine season and the trainer sneaks under the radar here via a 26% strike rate, given that (respectfully) more successful handlers tend to rule the roost here at Fontwell, none more so than Paul Nicholls whose strike rate of 34% heads the list. 

 

Southwell:

General stats: Charlie Mann’s 30% strike rate is worth a second glance, especially as the trainer has produced a level stake profit of nearly nineteen points in the process.

 

SATURDAY 21/04:

Newbury:

General stats: Three trainers saddled two winners at last year‘s two day meeting: Richard Hannon (8/1 & 4/1**)---John Gosden (7/1 & 4/1*)---Sir Henry Cecil (3/1 & 1/4*). Favourite record: 4/16.

‘John Porter’ event scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests.

‘Fred Darling’ scheduled for 2.35: Mick Channon has saddled four winners during the last decade and Mick held three entries at the five day stage.

‘Greenham Stakes’ scheduled for 3.10: Richard Hannon has saddled four winners during the last decade with Richard only potentially being represented by Bronterre this time around.

Newbury Spring Cup scheduled for 3.45: Four-year-olds have won nine renewals during the last fourteen years whilst claiming twenty-eight toteplacepot positions in the process!  Five of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via 13 renewals in the last 14 years (one winner).

(draw details--eight furlongs)

10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)

12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)

20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)
11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)
11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)
13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)
22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)
26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)
14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)
20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)
6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)
14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)
1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Three of Ralph Beckett’s last four runners have won at the time of writing and it’s worth noting that Ralph has amassed a small LSP figure at Nottingham via a 20% strike rate during the last five years.

Five furlong fillies handicap scheduled for 5.30: Only one favourite has obliged via the last eight contests during the decade.

Three-year-old handicap scheduled for 7.00: All ten winners during the last decade carried weights of 8-13 or more to victory.

3YO maiden event scheduled for 7.30 over a mile and a quarter: Sir Henry Cecil has won with the last two runners he has saddled in the contest and Ian Mongan was already jocked aboard Henry’s only option (Romantic) for the contest at the time of writing.

Class 6 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 8.00: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last five contests.

Class 3 three-year-old contest scheduled for 4.25: Three of the last four winners have scored at 40/1-18/1-10/1 whilst just one favourite has obliged via the last seven renewals.

 

Thirsk:

General stats: Tony Coyle has won with his only two runners at Thirsk to date whereby Thatcherite (Tony’s only entry on the card) catches the eye in the scheduled 2.10 event.  Other trainers to keep on the right side include John Dunlop, John Gosden and Derek Shaw.

Class 5 six furlong maiden event scheduled for 2.40: Only one successful favourite to report via the last nine renewals.

Class 3 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 3.15: Winners at 181/-14/1-12/1-12/1 have accompanied the only successful favourite in this contest to date via just the five renewals.

Seven furlongs conditions event scheduled for 3.50: We still await the first winning favourite following five renewals of the race.

 

Ayr:

General stats: General stats: Four trainers saddled two winners at last year‘s two day meeting: Paul Nicholls (9/2** & 1/10*)---Nicky Henderson (11/2** & 5/4*)---Ferdy Murphy (14/1 & 11/1)---Howard Johnson (9/2 & 4/1). Favourite record: 6/14.

‘Future Champion Novice chase’ scheduled for 2.15: The biggest priced winner during the last decade was returned last year at 8/1, whilst three favourites scored during the period.  Paul Nicholls saddled winners at 7/2-3/1-9/4, the latter named gold medallist having been returned as joint favourite.

Scottish Champion Hurdle scheduled for 2.50: All ten winners during the last decade carried weights of 10-13 or less.

Scottish Grand National scheduled for 3.25: Only four of the thirteen favourites during the last decade finished in the frame (no winners).

Novice handicap chase scheduled for 5.10: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last eight contests with vintage representatives going into this year’s event on a five-timer.

Nicky Henderson comes into the closing bumper event on a hat trick, whilst three of the last four favourites have prevailed. 


Bangor:

General stats: Tom Symonds held eight entries at Bangor on Saturday, the trainer having saddled two of his four runners at the track to winning effect. 

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Peter Charalanbous is among the winners and his 4/10 strike rate at Dunstall Park demands plenty of respect. 

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