Malcolm Boyle marks your card for the week...

Well I Declare, 17th August 2011

Wednesday again, so it's time for Malcolm Boyle

Malcolm Boyle marks your card for the week...

Malcolm Boyle marks your card for the week...

to mark your card with this week's noteworthy declarations. Here we go...

WEDNESDAY:

York:

2.30: Ten of the last eleven winners have been returned at odds of 7/2 or less, stats which include five successful favourites.

3.40: Favourites come into the race on a five-timer, whilst four and five-year-olds have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals.  It took a horse of the class of Sea The Stars to win on behalf of three-year-olds two years ago.

4.15: Five of the last six winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less, whilst just one clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored via nine renewals to date. Tim Easterby (NEARLY A GIFT) is the only trainer to have won the race twice.

4.50: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals of this event, whilst securing fourteen of the twenty six available toteplacepot positions.  Nine of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less.

Folkestone:

5.55: Three of the last five contests have been won by favourites, during which time the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/2.

7.30: The last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-5 or less, during which time six of the last seven gold medallists were burdened with a maximum of 9-2.  Four favourites have won via the last eleven renewals though that said, the last successful market leader scored back in 2007, despite their being two divisions of the contest the following year. 

THURSDAY:

York:

2.00: Five of the last eight favourites have prevailed (the other five were beaten relating to the history of this event), whilst nine of the 14 market leaders to date have secured toteplacepot positions.

2.30: Twelve of the last fourteen renewals have been won by horses starting at 15/2 or less, stats which includes six winning favourites.  Eight of the market leaders during the last fourteen years have claimed toteplacepot positions.

3.05: Three and four-year-olds have claimed the last nine renewals between them, with the older horses leading 5-4 during the period.

3.40: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last twelve renewals of this Yorkshire Oaks event, stats which include three of the last five contests.  Seven favourites have prevailed in the last fourteen years, though just two of the other seven market leaders secured an additional toteplacepot position.  Last year’s 85/40 favourite Sariska refused to race which contributed to last year’s decent toteplacepot dividend.

4.15: Three-year-olds have claimed nine of the last thirteen renewals of this event, stats which include seven of the last ten gold medallists.  Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via the last thirteen renewals.

Fontwell:

5.20: Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals, stats which include three of the last four winners.

5.50: We still await the first successful favourite following winners returned at 25/1--16/1--6/1--11/4.

7.30: Only one favourite has prevailed via seven contests since the turn of the Millennium.

Hamilton:

2.55: The last four winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, during which time three favourites have scored.

Stratford:

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 2.10: Five of the last eight renewals have been won by favourites, during which time the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.

FRIDAY:

York:

Class 2 handicap scheduled for 2.00: Six of the last nine winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less whilst three favourites have won during the last thirteen renewals.  Seven of the fourteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

‘Gimcrack’ scheduled for 2.30: Three favourites have prevailed in the last fourteen years, whilst seven of the 15 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

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Strensall Stakes scheduled for 3.05: Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled three of the last four winners and the trainer’s only entry at the five-day stage was INVISIBLE MAN.

‘Nunthorpe’ scheduled for 3.40: Five favourites landed the ‘Nunthorpe’ in successive seasons between 1999 and 2003, though the other nine market leaders failed to add to the record during the study period.  Just three of those beaten favourites managed to snare additional toteplacepot positions.

Draw details for the ‘Nunthorpe’ since the turn of the Millennium (middle to high numbers best):

2010: 11-13-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

2009: 2-11-9 (16 ran-good to firm)

2008: Race run at Newmarket--not applicable

2007: 13-7-16 (16 ran-good)

2006: 6-16-2 (14 ran-soft)

2005: 8-12-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

2004: 5-11-15 (12 ran-soft)

2003: 2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

2002: 15-16-11 (17 ran-good to firm)

2001: 4-8-3 (10 ran-good)

2000: 1-14-10 (13 ran-good)

Sandown:

Nursery event scheduled for 2.10: Favourites come into the opening contest on a five-timer with leading juvenile trainer Richard Hannon having held three options earlier in the week.

Class 5 handicap scheduled for 3.40: Five-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals during which time, favourites have won two renewals.

Class 5 juvenile maiden scheduled for 3.15: Just one favourite has prevailed during the last decade with four scorers returned in double figures.  Richard Hannon has saddled the last two winners of this event (25/1 & 12/1) and with four penultimate stage options, the trainer looked intent on completing a hat trick.

Mixed vintage handicap scheduled for 3.50: Three-year-olds have won the last four contests.

3YO event for fillies scheduled for 4.25: Market leaders have won five of the last eight renewals, with favourites coming to the gig on a five-timer on this occasion.  The biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at just 8/1.

Class 4 3YO handicap (10 furlongs) scheduled for 5.00: All five winners have carried weights of 9-4 or more, whilst we still await the first successful favourite.

SATURDAY:

York:

City of York Stakes scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals (including three of the last four contests).  Four favourites have won via the last thirteen renewals, whilst nine market leaders have reached the frame in the process.

Melrose Stakes scheduled for 2.35: The last eight winners carried weights of 9-3 or less, whilst John Dunlop has won two of the last six renewals.  John’s only option earlier in the week was MASARAAT.  Three of the last ten favourites have won (via six renewals) during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at 8/1. The bigger picture tells us that three of the 10 renewals since the turn of the Millennium have been won by market leaders.

Lonsdale Cup scheduled for 3.10: Four-year-olds come to the party on a four-timer, whilst four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last thirteen renewals.  Eleven of the fourteen market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Ebor Handicap scheduled for 3.40: Two favourites have won during the last thirteen renewals, whilst eight of the market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.  Although this distance suggests that the draw should not make too much difference to the result, only one horse drawn in single figures has won via the last 10 renewals.  High numbers appear to hold the call these days.

Roses Stakes scheduled for 4.15: Three favourites have won via the last thirteen renewals, though ten of the other eleven market leaders all failed to reach the frame during the study period.

Sandown:

Solario Stakes scheduled for 2.45: Richard Hannon was responsible for no less than six of the twelve five-day stage declarations earlier this week.  Three of the last five favourites have won, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 8/1.

Atalanta Stakes scheduled for 3.20: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled two of the last five winners and HEAVENLY DAWN was his only option earlier in the week.  The last nine winners have scored at 17/2 or less, stats which include two successful favourites.

Five furlong mixed vintage handicap scheduled for 3.55:  The last five winners have carried 8-13 or more to victory, whilst just one of the last six renewals was won by a market leader.

Nursery event scheduled for 5.05: The last four winners have won at 16/1--14/1--10/1--7/1.

SUNDAY:

Folkestone:

Juvenile event scheduled for 2.10: Mick Channon was the only trainer with two options at the five-day stage, whilst all four favourites have finished in the frame to date (two winners).

Seven furlong event for fillies scheduled for 3.10: Three of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions without winning their respective events.

Seven furlong seller scheduled for 3.40: Four-year-olds have won the last three renewals of this event.  All four favourites have finished in the frame to date (two winners).  Bookmakers will be looking for a result this time around with all four winners having scored at 4/1 or less thus far.

Mixed vintage six furlong handicap scheduled for 4.10: Two of the five favourites (winners of their respective events) have finished in the money.  All four winners have been returned at odds of 7/1 or less.

Handicap for filles scheduled for 5.10: The last four market leaders have all finished out of the frame since a 7/4 favourite won the inaugural event.

Newton Abbot:

Listed handicap chase scheduled for 3.00: The last six winners have been returned in double figures (ranging between 10/1 & 20/1) since the 100/30 favourite obliged in the first running of the contest back in 2004.

Handicap Chase (three and a quarter miles) scheduled for 3.30: Seven-year-olds have won all four renewals thus far.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.00: Successful four and five-year-olds have equally split the four contests to date.

- Malcolm Boyle

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