Well I Declare, 17th to 21st July

Well I Declare, 17th to 21st July

Well I Declare, 17th to 21st July

Well I Declare, 17th to 21st July

I can never remember the Glorious Goodwood meeting not following 'King George' weekend.
The ‘King George' is being staged Saturday 21st July (this week) with Goodwood not starting until Tuesday 31st.

This self-confessed ‘traditionalist’ knew he was getting old but now it looks like I have finally arrived in the OAP lounge…and all in the name of the Olympics I’ll wager!

I have utilised last year’s stats for the three-day Ascot meeting in the Friday listings.  You might not be surprised to learn that John Gosden ruled supreme at the meeting for those of you whose memory failings (line mine) are an everyday occurrence!

Be lucky but perhaps more importantly, be observant!

My Day by day offerings:

TUESDAY 17/7:

Beverley:

General stats: Capitol Gain (2.00) is the only Brian Meehan raider on the card, the trainer boasting 3/11 stats at Beverley during the last five years, a ratio which has produced sixteen points of level stake profits down the years.

2.30 & 5.00 (Two divisions of the juvenile contest): Eleven of the last twelve winners have carried weights of 8-10 or less, whilst seven favourites have won in the last fourteen years though be warned, as winners have been returned at 33/1--20/1--20/1 via three of the last seven contests.  Nine of the fourteen favourites claimed toteplacepot positions.

3.00: John Wainwright landed a 186/1 double via the two divisions of this event last year and John saddles one of those gold medallists this time around in Media Jury. Four of the last eleven favourites have won, though just four other market leaders have finished in the frame during the last fourteen years.

4.00: Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more and last year’s winner Mojolika boasts definite claims providing the ground does not deteriorate overnight.  Markington has secured gold and silver medals via the last two renewals and can rarely be left out of the mix in this grade/company. Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged in the last thirteen years. Only three of the other favourites during the study period claimed additional toteplacepot positions.

5.30: The first three favourites obliged before the next market leader finished in the frame.  Last year’s 5/1 favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.

 

Ffos Las:

General stats: Ralph Beckett has his team in good form and his two runners on the card are attempting to build on Ralph’s 3/13 ratio at the Welsh venue.

 

Yarmouth:

General stats: Lyric Poet (8.50) represents Anthony Caron whose record here at Yarmouth stands at 2/5, statistics which have produced over one hundred points of level stake profits! Richard Fahey saddles three runners on the card, boasting a 26% strike rate at Yarmouth going into the meeting. 

5.50: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick whilst the last four winners have scored at odds of 9/2 or less.

6.20: The first three favourites won this selling Nursery event before last year's market leader finished fourth of seven at 100/30.  David Evans has secured two gold and one silver medal thus far and the trainer is represented by his Iffraaj gelding this time around.

8.50: Five renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded since the inaugural 4/6 market leader prevailed back in 2006.

 

Southwell:

General stats: The Blue Dog (7.00) represents shrewd cookie Michael Wigham who boasts a 30% strike at the venue.  That said, Saeed Bin Suroor rules supreme at Southwell, having saddled ten of his twenty-one runners to winning effect.

 

WEDNESDAY 18/7:

Catterick:

General stats: Rae Guest (2/6) and Ian Williams (2/8) have both been among the winners of late and their stats read well enough in the context of Wednesday’s meeting, which has failed to attract some of the trainers which lead the way at the Yorkshire venue.

2.10: Four of the seven favourites have won this event to date, with market leaders coming to this year's gig on a four-timer.  The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 6/1.

2.40: Three-year-olds have secured three of the last five contests, whilst just one (joint) favourite has prevailed since 2004. That said, the last five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

3.10: All ten renewals during the last decade have produced winners at odds of 10/1 or less, albeit just two market leaders obliged during the study period.  Tim Easterby has secured two of the last seven renewals and his raider Blue Shoes might well have won here at Catterick last week but for a deluge just before the off.

3.40: Eleven-year-old Eijazz has secured seven of his twelve victories to date here at this venue, statistics which include the last two renewals of this event.  Six contests have slipped by since the last successful (6/5) favourite was registered, whilst the last five winners carried a minimum burden of 9-5. Three of the last six winners have scored at 50/1-22/1-12/1.

4.10: Six of the last nine favourites have prevailed whilst all ten winners during the last decade have been sent off at odds of 10/1 or less. Two of the four favourites which failed to win their respective events secured toteplacepot positions.

4.40: Market leaders have claimed four of the nine renewals thus far, whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at 13/2.  David Nicholls has claimed two of the last five contests and the trainer is represented by Knight Vision on this occasion.

 

Sandown:

General stats: William Haggas boasts a 24% strike rate at Sandown during the last five years, stats which have produced over nineteen points of level stake profits.  Andrew Balding saddled a 23/1 double on the card last year with the trainer having declared two runners at this year’s meeting.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: This was originally scheduled to be a mixed meeting of all-weather and turf events, though with the grass track waterlogged at the time of writing, this is now an all-weather meeting in its entirety. 

 

Uttoxeter:

General stats: I swear that Dr Richard Newland’s runners have never been in better form, with his last eight runners having secured three gold and five silver medals.  Richard’s record of thirty points of level stake profits via a strike rate of 31% here at Uttoxeter during the last five years also makes for extremely positive reading. 

 

Worcester:

General stats: If you (rightly) thought that Tony McCoy’s recent strike rate of 27% here at Worcester was outstanding, consider Rachel Green’s incredible 10/19 ratio, stats which have produced eighty points of level stake profits. 

 

THURSDAY 19/7:

Bath:

General stats: Gabriel’s Lad was due to be ridden in the scheduled 7.35 event by Eddie Ahern who is not the most regular visitor to Bath races.  Eddie boasts a 22% strike rate at the track via fourteen winners in recent years, a ratio which has produced fourteen points of level stake profits.  Watch out for any additional rides that Eddie picks up at the meeting.

 

Brighton:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda (38%) and Saeed Bin Suroor (36% via far less runners) are trainers to keep on the right side, as his Neil Callan who rides this track as well any anyone. Neill boasts eighteen points of level stake profits via eighty-six rides at the track in recent times.

 

Doncaster:

General stats: Roger Varian (33%), Sir Henry Cecil (26%) and Luca Cumani (24%) all boast decent strike rates at Doncaster and held options at the meeting at the time of writing.

Maiden event for juvenile fillies due to be contested at 6.50: Favourites come into the contest on a hat trick, whilst three of the four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Juvenile Novice event over six furlong scheduled for 7.25: The last three market leaders have prevailed, albeit the first three favourites all missed out on toteplacepot positions, one of which finished behind 66/1 and 8/1 horses which dead heated back in 2008.

One mile Conditions event due to be contests at 7.55: The last three market leaders have prevailed, albeit the first three favourites all missed out on toteplacepot positions, one of which finished behind 66/1 and 8/1 horses which dead heated back in 2008.

Ten furlong Class 4 all aged handicap scheduled for 8.30: Only one of the three subsequent favourites finished in the frame following the success of the inaugural 3/1 market leader in 2008.  Four-year-olds have won three renewals to date, with just one beaten representative when the vintage missed out two years ago.

Ten furlong Class 5 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 9.00: Three of the four favourites have secured place money, though all three market leaders have been beaten from a win perspective since 2008 when the inaugural 6/4 'jolly' obliged.

 

Epsom:

General stats: Andrew Balding still boasts an impressive fifty-two points of level stake profits via a 23% strike rate  at Epsom during the last five years, with the trainer holding five options for the meeting earlier in the week. 

 

Hamilton:

General stats: Two riders who do not receive as many plaudits as others can be kept on the right side at Hamilton.  Amy Ryan boasts a 26% strike rate via eleven winners at the track, a ratio which has netted fifty-three points of level stake profits.  Jason Hart has ridden four winners via just twelve assignments at the venue.

 

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Leicester:

General stats: I’m sure that Saeed Bin Suroor would love the opportunity of improving his 41% strike rate at Leicester…if only the venue could stage a meeting sometime this year!

 

FRIDAY 20/7:

Ascot:

Stats from the three-day meeting last year:

19 races

Favourite details (19 market leaders): 6 winners--4 placed--9 unplaced

Two odds on favourites: Roger Charlton winner at 4/5 and Sir Michael Stoute trained loser at 10/11.

Fourteen of the nineteen winners were returned at 10/1 or less, eleven gold medallists being sent off at a top price of 11/2.  The other five winners were returned at 20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-12/1.

John Gosden led the way with four winners (20/1-16/1-11/2-15/8*), John securing a 316/1 treble on the Saturday which included his 11/2 ‘King George’ winner Nathaniel.

Quite how one of John’s runners was sent off as a 20/1 winner on the Sunday remains a mystery given his success on the second day of the meeting.

The only other handler to saddle more than one winner during the three days was retired trainer Barry Hills who secured events with 8/1 and 9/2 chances.

Sir Michael Stoute saddled four beaten favourites (10/11-6/5-6/4-11/4) of which just two reached the frame. Saeed Bin Suroor was the only other trainer to saddle more than one market leader (11/10 & 15/8), both horses missing out on toteplacepot positions.

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £24.70 (average dividend over the last ten years: £712.75)

Saturday: £462.30 (average dividend over the last ten years: £710.86)

Sunday: £332.70 (average dividend over the last ten years: £308.46)

 

Friday details at Ascot:

Juvenile maiden for fillies scheduled for 2.10: Five of the last twelve favourites have scored whilst twelve of the last fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  The last eleven winners have won at odds of 15/2 or less.

Two mile all aged handicap scheduled for 3.20: Four clear market leaders, one joint and one co favourite have won this event during the last fifteen years.  Just nine of the twenty-two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

One mile Class 3 all aged handicap scheduled for 5.05: Ten of the twelve winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst five market leaders have won via twelve renewals to date. Three of the other seven favourites additionally secured toteplacepot positions.

 

Haydock:

General stats: It is hardly surprising that seven pound claimer Natasha Eaton has secured a ride at the meeting already, given her 3/6 ratio at Haydock!  National was booked aboard Fleeting Echo in the scheduled 4.50 event early doors on Monday.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: George Baker is amassing a fair size yard now whereby his few runners at Newmarket are worth consideration.  George seemingly puts a great deal of planning into his declarations as his 3/11 ratio at Newmarket confirms.

Ten furlong Class 5 all aged handicap due to be contested at 5.40: Seven of the nine winners to date have carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (three winners).  Fourteen of the twenty-eight available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at 12/1 or more, statistics which include three winners at 16/1--16/1--12/1.

Seven furlong juvenile maiden for fillies scheduled for 6.10:  Five of the fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two winners. Eight of the last nine winners were returned at 25/1, 25/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1, 9/1 & 11/2, whilst two other horses have secured toteplacepot positions at 33/1 during the period alongside other outsiders.  Mahmood Al Zarooni comes to the gig on a hat trick and it’s worth noting that the trainer held four options at the penultimate entry stage.

Class 4 seven furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 6.45: Fifteen of the twenty toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying weights of 9-0 or more, whilst five of the eight favourites have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective (three winners).

Five furlong Conditions event scheduled for 7.15: Four clear market leaders and one co favourite have scored in the last fifteen years.  Eleven of the seventeen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions though it’s worth noting that four odds on favourites have been beaten in recent years.  The last fifteen winners have all been returned in single figures.

Three-year-old maiden event over one mile due to be contested at 8.25:  Six of the eleven favourites have scored to date whilst aside from two 25/1 winners, the biggest priced scorer was returned at 7/2.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Michael Appleby is rapidly making a name for himself and Michael’s 5/14 stats at this venue catch the eye, especially as the trainer has yielded thirty-four points of level stake profits into the bargain. 

 

Pontefract:

General stats: Ralph Beckett has saddled four gold and four silver medallists via his last sixteen runners at the time of writing and with the trainer having saddled five winners from just seventeen representatives at Pontefract in recent times, any horses from the yard offered the green light should be followed.

 

SATURDAY 21/7:

Ascot:

General stats: So few trainers manage to compile impressive strike rates at Ascot given the competitive nature of the sport at the Berkshire venue.  Clive Brittain has pulled so many rabbits out of hats down the years that his Shafaani (scheduled for the 2.10 contest) cannot be entirely ruled out of the equation, the trainer having produced over thirty points of level stake profits at Ascot in recent times. 

Ladies race scheduled for 1.35: Six of the last sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (no winners), whilst the returned prices of gold medallists included those at 33/1-33/1-20/1-20/1-20/1-14/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-11/1 during the study period.

Listed Winkfield Stakes scheduled for 2.10: Five of the six favourites have finished nearer last than first to date.

Group 2 ‘Summer Mile’ due to be contested at 2.45: Two of the five favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far (one winner).  Four-year-olds have secured three of the last four renewals.

Class 2 three-year-old handicap over one mile scheduled for 3.20: Sixteen of the twenty horses to have secured toteplacepot positions to date have carried weights of 9-3 or less, stats which include five of the six winners.  Horses towards the front end of the market have generally held the call via six renewals to date, even though all six favourites have been beaten. Four of the last five market leaders have finished in the frame.

Seven furlong International Stakes scheduled for 3.55: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last twelve renewals, whilst twelve of the last fourteen winners have scored at 9/1 or more.  Six of the last eight gold medallists have carried weights of 8-9 or more. Just one joint favourite has won via thirteen renewals to date, whilst only four of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Group 1 ‘King George’ scheduled for 4.35: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals of the ‘King George’ and although the trend was broken last year via Nathaniel’s (three-year-old) success, it was a messy race which unfortunately witnessed the demise of Rewilding.  Sea Moon potentially represents Sir Michael Stoute who has secured three victories during the last decade.  Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of two of the last five contests and St Nicholas Abbey is his main hope this time around. Eight of the last eleven favourites have prevailed, whilst the last thirteen gold medallists have emerged via the front four in the betting.

Mile and a half 3YO handicap scheduled for 5.10: All ten winners during the last decade carried a minimum weight of 8-13 and though only one favourite prevailed (last year) during the period, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 8/1.

 

Haydock:

General stats: As an owner, Mick Channon has enjoyed a great deal of success (5/16) with his horses at Haydock and McVicar was his only entry regarding his own colours at the track this week. 

 

Newmarket:

General stats: With three of David Brown’s last six runners securing the silver medal at the time of writing, few people would deny the trainer a winner.  David’s 25% record here on the July course suggests that if a winner for the trainer is imminent, it might well be here that David greets a representative in the area reserved for the gold medallist. 

 

Ripon:

General stats: Trainer Peter Salmon and jockey Adam Carter have identical stats of 2/5 at Ripon whereby any runners associated with the pair require attention.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: It remains to be seen if this mixed meeting will lose its turf events through water logging later in the week. 

 

Cartmel:

General stats: Harriet Graham’s 32% strike rate at Carmel via six winners at the Lake District venue makes for impressive reading. 

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Nicky Henderson still rules the roost at the Lincolnshire venue via a strike rate of 43%. 

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