Well I Declare: 6th March 2013

Well I Declare: 18th to 22nd December

Well I Declare: 18th to 22nd December

Well I Declare: 18th to 22nd December

The lead up to Christmas is an important time for punters who like to keep abreast of what is going on whilst buying presents/provisions and keeping some ‘ammunition’ for the Boxing Day racing extravaganza.

Last year’s results during the final five days before the break treated punters quite well, especially in the A/W sector as 44/47 winners were returned in single figures, statistics which included seventeen successful favourites (36.2% of races).

Conversely, there were thirteen winners sent off in double figures under the NH code, though 22/60 races went to a favourites of one description or another (36.7%).

Punters following stables endured a tough time however, as 81/107 races were secured by trainers who saddled just the one winner during the period.

[1 star relates to a clear favourite  /2 stars relates to a joint favourite / 3 stars is a co favourite of three or more]

Just three trainers in the A/W sector saddled two winners; Pat Eddery (8/1 & 5/2*), David Simcock (5/2 & 6/5*) and Phil Hiatt (9/2 & 7/2).

There was a slightly better trend under the NH code with eight trainers saddling at least two winners:

4--Donald McCain (7/1-7/1-11/8*-1/3*)

3--Tim Vaughan (14/1-9/4-4/7*)

3--Colin Tizzard (17/2-8/1-4/9*)

Two each for Nicky Richards (15/2 & 7/4*), John O’Shea (20/1 & 9/1), Brendan Powell (9/2 & 2/1), David Pipe (6/5* & 1/4*) and Emma Lavelle (10/1 & 2/5*).

 

A/W statistics since the end of the turf season--up to and including Monday 17th December:

No of races: 320

Favourite stats: 122 winners (includes joint & co favourites--38.1% of races)

Ratio of odds on favourites: 28/39 (71.8%)

 

Leading trainers:

9--M. Botti (2/5*--11/4--Evs*--7/2--11/2--5/4*--7/2--2/1*--3/1)

8--David (P.D) Evans (7/1--10/1--2/1--7/1--11/4--9/2*--2/1--2/1*)

8--John Ryan (9/2--33/1--3/1**--15/8--7/2--6/1--3/1*--5/4*)

8--J. Osborne (13/2--20/1--11/8*--5/4*--Evs*--11/4*--9/4--4/6*)

7--A. Balding (11/10*--4/5*--11/4*--11/4--4/1**--2/1--7/2*)

7--K. Dalgleish (9/1--9/2--15/2--11/8*--9/2--13/8*--5/4*)

7--J.S. Moore (4/1--20/1--8/1--4/1--5/1--7/4*--9/2)

7--Kevin Ryan (9/2--5/1--7/2**--4/1--11/10*--11/2--5/1)

6--M. Easterby (12/1--13/2--7/2--9/4*--13/2--6/5*)

6--R. Hannon (8/1--5/4*--6/1--7/2--7/2*--11/4)

5--G. Baker (8/11*--8/1--7/2**--20/1--7/2)

5--E. Dunlop (15/8*--11/4*--7/2--5/4*--11/2)

5--J. Gosden (4/1**--5/4--5/4*--3/1--5/6*)

5--Sir M. Prescott (4/9*--11/8*--8/11*--4/5*--10/11*)

5--Stuart Williams (7/2*--1/2*--4/1***--5/2*--15/8)

 

Most beaten favourites to date:

13--A. Balding (Evs--3/1**--3/1--10/3--4/6--5/4--7/4--7/2**--6/4--4/1***--3/1--2/1--11/8)

8--J. Osborne (11/4--9/2--15/8--3/1--13/8--1/4--5/2--5/1**)

6--B. Ellison (9/4--11/4--4/1**--7/2**--9/4--11/4)

6--J. Gosden (10/11--6/4--6/4--6/5--5/2--6/4)

6--Gary Moore (3/1--8/15--11/4--3/1--9/4**--11/4)

5--M. Botti (4/1--7/2**--11/8--11/8--4/1***)

5--C. Dore (11/8--5/1***--7/2**--7/2**--7/2**)

5--R. Fahey (5/1***--4/1--9/4--2/1--13/8)

5--M. Johnston (7/2--7/4--11/4--11/4--2/1)

5--John Ryan (9/2--5/2--7/2--3/1 & 5/1**)

 

Trainers still waiting for their first during the study period:

0/34--S. Dixon

0/21--D. Shaw

0/17--M. Channon

0/16--B.R. Millman

0/16--B. Powell

0/15--J. Gask

0/13--B. Baugh

0/12--Christine Dunnett

0/11--R. Ingram

0/11--O. Pears

0/10--M. Blanshard

0/10--P. Butler

0/10--Sir M. Stoute

 

Day by day analysis:  If you wonder why some of the winning trainers do not tally with the names above in the ‘run up to Christmas stats‘, the fixtures did not ‘overlap‘.  Ascot is the perfect example as last year‘s two day meeting at the Berkshire venue did not occur during the last five days before the break.

TUESDAY 18/12:

Catterick:

12.40: Keith Reveley (Flora’s Pride) has saddled the last two renewals of this event, whilst all six winners have carried 11-3 or less to victory.

1.10: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last eight renewals, whilst Donald McCain (Tick Tocker) has saddled two of the last four gold medallists.

1.40: Six-year-olds have secured three of the last four renewals, whilst seven of the eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3.

2.10: Only one of the last seven favourites has won, whilst six-year-olds have won three of the last four contests.

2.40: The last six winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, whilst eight-year-olds have secured three of the last four renewals.  Last year's successful (9/2) favourite was the first market leader to score since 2004.

3.10: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared all eight renewals thus far during which time, two favourites have obliged.  Six winners have scored at odds of 15/2 or less.

 

Folkestone:

12.30: Four and five-year-olds have won an aggregate of ten of the last eleven renewals (equal split) with five-year-olds having won four of the last five contests.  Seven of the last nine market leaders have finished in the frame though that said, last year’s 15/8 market leader was the first favourite to prevail since a 9/4 joint favourite scored back in 2003.

1.00: Eight-year-olds have secured four of the eight available toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include two of the three winners at 9/2 and 1/2.

1.30: Four-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals whilst all nine contests have been secured by horses ages six or less.  Six of the eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

2.00: Four of the last five winners have carried weights of 11-1 or less, as have seven of the thirteen horses which have finished in the frame (exact science).  Five of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winner) to date.

 

Lingfield:

Statistics since the end of the turf season:

Number of races at Lingfield: 111

Favourite stats (includes joint and co favourites): 46 (41.4% of races)

Ratio of Odds on favourites: 10/11 (90.9%)

 

Leading trainers at Lingfield:

4--Kevin Ryan (9/2--7/2**--11/2--5/1)

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3--R. Hannon (5/4*--7/2--11/4)

3--J.S. Moore (20/1--5/1--7/4*)

3--G. Moss (12/1--9/4--8/1)

3--J. Osborne (5/4*--9/4*--4/6*)

3--John Ryan (6/1--3/1*--5/4*)

3--Ian Williams (9/2--7/2--16/1)

3--Stuart Williams (7/2*--4/1***--5/2*)

 

Beaten favourites at Lingfield during the study period:

5--A. Balding (10/3--7/2**--6/4--4/1***--3/1)

3--C. Dore (5/1***--7/2**--7/2**)

3--J. Osborne (3/1--5/2--5/1**)

3--Stuart Williams (7/2**--4/1--6/4)

 

WEDNESDAY 19/12:

Newbury:

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.15:  Favourites have won seven renewals during the last decade.

Class 3 three-mile handicap chase due to be contested at 12.50: Nigel Twiston-Davies has won three of the six contests and the trainer only had Tullyraine engaged at the penultimate stage.  The last five winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3, with Tullyraine set to carry 11-5 on this occasion if the eight-year-old is offered the green light

Class 4 maiden hurdle event scheduled for 1.20: Nicky Henderson has as secured four of the last twelve renewals of this event with trainer holding three options at the five-day stage.  Five clear market leaders have obliged to date alongside a joint favourite.  Ten of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.  The last seven winners have scored at odds of 11/2 or less.

Class 4 two and a quarter-mile handicap chased scheduled for 1.50: Five of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Three mile Graduation Chase due to be contested at 2.25: The four favourites to date have secured three gold and one silver medal with each winner carrying weights of 11-4 or more.

Novice hurdle ‘qualifier‘ scheduled for 3.00: Five-year-olds have landed six renewals during the last eleven years whilst vintage representatives have secured eight of the last twelve available toteplacepot positions for good measure.  Four of the last ten renewals have been secured by favourites, during which time, seven winners have scored at odds of 11/2 or less. Nicky Henderson held three options earlier in the week for a race that the trainer has won four times during the last decade.

 

Ludlow:

General stats: Although Evan Williams leads the way in terms of the number of winners (42) at Ludlow during the last five years, Nicky Henderson (35) and Jonjo O’Neill (16) are not that far behind and this pair boast level stake profits at the track which Evan lacks.  Jonjo’s lack of winners compared to the other two trainers is offset by his far superior LSP figure which reads twenty-eight points at the time of writing.

 

Kempton:

Statistics since the end of the turf season:

Number of races at Kempton: 80

Favourite stats (includes joint and co favourites): 28 (35.0% of races)

Ratio of Odds on favourites: 6/11 (54.5%)

 

Trainers with winners at Kempton:

5--A. Balding (11/10*--11/4*--4/1**--11/4--7/2*)

3--G. Baker (8/11*--8/1--20/1)

3--J. Boyle (2/1--14/1--5/2*)

3--David (P.D.) Evans (7/1--2/1--9/2*)

3--J.S. Moore (4/1--8/1--9/2)

 

Beaten favourites at Kempton:

3--A. Balding (Evs--4/6--2/1)

3--Jo Crowley (4/7--6/4**--5/2**)

3--J. Gosden (10/11--6/4--6/4)

3--Gary Moore (11/4--9/4**--11/4)

3--J. Ryan (9/2--5/2--5/1**)

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Dan Kubler held three options at Lingfield this week at the time of writing with Mont Signal (12.50) having been confirmed as a runner on this card.  Daniel has saddled three winners at Lingfield from just seven runners to date, figures which have produced an LSP reading of eight points.

 

THURSDAY 20/12:

Exeter:

General stats: Kim Bailey held two entries for the scheduled 3.20 event, the trainer boasting an LSP figure of sixteen points via a 30% strike rate at the venue.

‘Peterborough Chase’ (transferred from Huntingdon) scheduled for 1.50: Although four favourites have won during the last decade, four renewals have slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded since Henrietta Knight’s grip on the contest gave way.

Mares novice chase scheduled for 2.50: All eight winners have scored at odds of 9/2 or less, stats which include five winning favourites.

 

Towcester:

General stats: Don Pooleoni was David Arbuthnot’s only potential runner on the card at the time of writing, David boasting a 6/15 ratio at Towcester in recent times.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Quite how Luke Morris has recorded a level stake profit (however minimal) from 949 rides at Kempton during the last five years only he will know!  A truly magnificent effort, whilst Jim Crowley’s 136 (1001 rides) winners at the venue during the period is another stat to behold.

 

FRIDAY 21/12:

Ascot:

Stats from the two-day fixture last year:

Races: 12

Winning favourites (includes joint and co favourites): 5

Odds on favourites: 1/2

Trainers with more than one winner:

3--P. Nicholls (11/4**--2/1--3/10*)

2--N. Henderson (2/1 & 11/10*)

2--D. Pipe (9/2 & 8/5)

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 12.45: Nicky Henderson has saddled two (four-year-old) winners of this event via four contests thus far.

Novice handicap chase scheduled for 1.20: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the seven renewals contested during the last decade.  Three favourites have prevailed during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 5/1.

Grade 2 Novice Hurdle due to be contested at 1.55: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last seven events, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.   Nicky Henderson was responsible for four of the twelve five-day declarations, the trainer having saddled two of the last six winners.

Nineteen furlong Grade 2 Novice Chase scheduled for 2.30: The biggest priced winners was returned at 13/2 via seven contests during the last ten years, statistics which include three successful favourites.

Twenty two furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.05: Five-year-olds have won all four renewals to date, whilst Jonjo O’Neill has saddled two gold medallists thus far.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 3.40: Four-year-olds have won five of the six recent renewals during which time, successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Given the sheer number of races contested at Lingfield, their statistics in the non handicap sector during the last five years makes for good reading: 2YO: 45%--3YO: 48%--Older horses: 44%.

 

Uttoxeter:

General stats: Save a couple of shillings this week for Benozzo Gozzoli who represents Simon Earle in the scheduled 1.45 event.  Simon has saddled four winners from just eight runners at the track and this was his only potential representative on the card at the time of writing.  Conversely, Donald McCain had seven runners involved at the five-day stage, the trainer having saddled forty-five winners here at Uttoxeter in recent times.  Dr Richard Newland’s 32% strike rate at the venue is also worth taking into consideration.

 

Wolverhampton:

Statistics since the end of the turf season:

Number of races at Wolverhampton: 105

Favourite stats (includes joint and co favourites): 40 (38.1% of races)

Ratio of Odds on favourites: 9/12 (75.0%)

 

Trainers with winners at Wolverhampton:

6--M. Botti (Evs*--7/2--5/4*--7/2--2/1*--3/1)

6--K. Dalgleish (9/2--15/2--11/8*--9/2--13/8*--5/4*)

6--M. Easterby (12/1--13/2--7/2--9/4*--13/2--6/5*)

5--J. Osborne (13/2--20/1--11/8*--11/4*--Evs*)

3--M. Appleby (8/1--6/1--9/2)

3--David (P.D.) Evans (10/1--2/1--2/1*)

3--J. Ryan (9/2--15/8--7/2)

 

Beaten favourites at Wolverhampton:

4--A. Balding (3/1**--3/1--5/4--7/4)

4--K. Dalgleish (6/4--3/1--5/4--6/5)

4--B. Ellison (11/4--4/1**--9/4--11/4)

4--R. Fahey (4/1--9/4--2/1--13/8)

3--M. Easterby (9/2***--100/30--7/2)

3--M. Johnston (7/4--11/4--2/1)

 

SATURDAY 22/12:

Ascot:

Three mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 12.55:  Just the two renewals to date though that said, five-year-olds have won both events whilst securing the forecast positions on each occasion (9/2 & 8/1--6/1 & 14/1).

Class 2 graduation chase scheduled for 1.30: Five year-olds trained by Paul Nicholls have won the last two contests, the trainer holding two such entries this time around.

Eight of the last eleven favourites have won the ‘Long Walk’ which is scheduled to be contested at 2.00.  That said, Big Bucks will not be in attendance this year due to breaking news at the time of writing, even though the nine-year-old was among the five-day acceptors.

Listed Silver Cup event scheduled for 2.35: The last six winners have carried weights of 11-1 or less, whilst last year’s successful (joint) favourite was the first market leader to oblige in a long time, the three previous scorers having prevailed at 33/1-25/1-12/1.  Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, statistics which include three of the last four contests.

Listed ‘Ladbroke’ event scheduled for 3.35: Five-year-olds have secured six of the nine renewals.  Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last eight winners, with the trainer holding four options at the time of writing.  Five of the last seven winners have scored at odds ranging between 12/1 and 33/1 during which time, just one (9/4) favourite obliged.

We still await the first successful favourite (following four renewals) of the scheduled closing event which is a seventeen furlong handicap chase, due off at 3.40 at the time of writing.  All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-1.

 

Haydock:

General stats: Donald McCain held nine options on the card earlier in the week, with the trainer have saddled more than three times the number of winners (35) as the next best potentially involved handler (Nicky Henderson with eleven winners) at Haydock on Saturday.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 12.10: The four favourites to date have secured two gold and two silver medals.  Three of the four winners carried weights of 11-5 or more to victory.

Two mile novice chase scheduled for 12.40: Two favourites have won via seven renewals to date, during which time the biggest priced winner was returned at 4/1.

‘Tommy Whittle Chase’ due to be contested at 2.15: Seven and eight-year-olds have won the last five renewals between them with the older vintage having the edge (3-2).  All five winners have carried 11-4 or less during which time, one successful (10/3) favourite has emerged.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Bellaney Express was John Quinn’s only potential runner on the card earlier in the week, the trainer boasting a 29% strike rate at the track in recent years, a ratio which has secured twelve points of level stake profit.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tom Dascombe boasts a level stake profit of fifty-four points via a 25% strike rate at Lingfield during the last five years.

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3 replies
  1. Gordon Roberts says:

    Very interesting facts onthe trainers of the winners. BUT please what do the stars mean and why one two and three? Can’t find an explanation anywhere.

    • matthew says:

      could you help with draw info for lingfield and kempton,ie if not possible in the articles,where is best place to look,thanks.

  2. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    For Graham and anyone else who was wondering:

    1 star relates to a clear favourite
    2 stars relates to a joint favourite
    3 stars is a co favourite of three or more….

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