Well I Declare, 18th September

Well I Declare: 18th to 22nd September

Well I Declare, 18th September

Well I Declare, 18th September

Last week’s highlighted trainers for St Leger week produced well over twenty winners including those at 20/1 & 16/1, notwithstanding the 25/1 St Leger winner Encke for Mahmood Al Zarooni. 

These are last year’s consistent winning trainers for the corresponding week Tuesday through Saturday:

 8--Richard Hannon

5--Mark Johnston

5--David Nicholls

4--Clive Brittain

4--Richard Fahey

4--Kevin Ryan

The highlights last year were Richard Hannon’s 84/1 four timer on the Tuesday, Sir Henry Cecil’s 299/1 treble on the Wednesday and Mark Johnston’s 95/1 treble on Thursday. 

That said, three trainers ran riot on Ayr Gold Cup day (Saturday) when David Nicholls ran away with the honours via a 1710/1 four timer!  Kevin Ryan’s 467/1 treble was also worthy of plenty of plaudits, whilst the 146/1 double secured by David Evans rewarded his supporters. 

The highlighted stats at the venues which staged at least two days of racing last year were as follows:

Yarmouth (Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday):

Six favourites won via twenty-three races (26.1%), whilst Mark Johnston secured a 34/1 double on the last day of the meeting twelve months ago.

Kempton (Wednesday/Thursday):

Richard Hannon’s pair of winners during the two-day fixture were returned at 16/1 & 9/1, whilst 3 market leaders won via fifteen contests (20.0%).

Ayr (Thursday/Friday/Saturday):

Richard Fahey was the leading trainer during the three-day fixture with four winners returned at 12/1-11/2-5/1-11/4*, Richard having secured an 83/1 double on the Friday.

Saturday doubles at Ayr were secured by David Nicholls (168/1--three winners during the three days) and Kevin Ryan (71/1).

Tim Easterby saddled one winner each day at 14/1-11/2-5/2*, whilst Alan Bailey won with two favourites at the meeting which were sent off at 5/2 & 7/4.

Eight favourites obliged via twenty three races (34.8%)

Newbury (Friday & Saturday):

66.7% of the fifteen races were won by favourites, whilst Mahmood Al Zarooni was the only trainer to saddle two winners (on separate days) at 4/6* & 9/2.

Day by day details:

TUESDAY 18/09:


General stats: Jamie Osborne is finishing the season in a much better form and his LSP figure of seventeen points at Folkestone via a strike rate of 21% should give the trainer confidence going to the venue on Tuesday.



General stats: David Simcock has declared his recent Newcastle winner White Nile at the meeting in an attempt to improve an already impressive 3/7 strike rate at Thirsk. 



General stats: I could recite lots of positive stats regarding more obvious trainers, though Laura Mongan deserves plenty of credit for producing a ratio of  29% (4/14), statistics which include a positive LSP figure of twenty-four points.

2.30: Sir Michael Stoute averages twelve juvenile winners a year judged on the last five seasons whereby his 2012 ratio of 3/38 is disappointing in the extreme.  Michael has saddled three of the last seven winners of this event however whereby his King’s Best newcomer Primadonna Girl could improve the stats on this occasion.   Seven of the last twelve renewals have fallen to the favourite whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 7/1.

3.00: The last ten winners have carried weights of 9-5 or less whereby the top pair of entries in the list are overlooked.  Four favourites have prevailed during the last nine years.

3.30:  Three-year-olds have won twelve of the thirteen renewals whereby the two four-year-olds in the line-up appear to have difficult tasks.  Clive Brittain saddled the winner twelve months ago, one of four winners during the corresponding week, two of the four gold medallists having scored at 16/1 and 10/1.  Clive saddles Atmanna with a chance in a disappointing line up, connections possibly having most to fear from Game All on this occasion.  Hugo Palmer’s Acclamation filly ran well from a wide draw at Lingfield at the first time of asking having been backed to run a half decent race.  Hugo should be congratulated for finding an obvious chance for the January foal in this grade/company.  Nine of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

4.00: Leading Newmarket yards have made a habit of farming this event, whilst three market leaders have won via the last twelve renewals, with six favourites finishing in the frame during the study period.

4.30: Eight of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2 whilst two favourites have won during the last decade.  Seven of the ten market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.




General stats: Ollie Pears saddles just one runner at Beverley on Wednesday when Throwing Roses contests the 2.00 contest.  Ollie boasts an LSP figure of forty-three points via twelve winners at the track during the last five years. 



General stats: Both of Mark Brisbourne’s runners have won at Sandown during the study period whilst two of his last three runners have scored at the time of writing.  Mark saddles one runner at Sandown on Wednesday, namely Silvas Romana in the 5.05 contest. 

2.20: Two of the six favourites have won, though the last three gold medallists were returned at 33/1-12/1-6/1.  Four of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame.

2.55: Nine of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (four winners).  Eight of the ten winners have been returned at odds of 6/1 or less, the ‘odd men out’ being 20/1 and 12/1 outsiders.

3.25: Favourites have won eight of the last ten renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last decade contests sent off at 5/1.

5.05: Four clear market leaders and a joint favourite have prevailed during the last twelve years, whilst eight of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

5.35: Although three of the last five favourites have finished in the money, the relevant scorers were returned at odds of 33/1--10/1--8/1--8/1--6/1. All eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-12.



General stats: Chris Wall’s runners should be noted at the seaside venue, the trainer boasting an LSP figure of 46 points via thirty winners during the last five years.



General stats: William Muir saddled four winners during the corresponding week twelve months ago and the trainer now boasts fifty-five points of level stake profits at Kempton during the last five years.




General stats: Seven pound claimer Shirley Teasdale has already lit up Ayr racecourse, boasting a strike rate of 29% (5/17), statistics which have produced an LSP figure of twenty-six points.



General stats: Henry Candy has one horse entered at the time of writing (Gouray Girl in the scheduled 4.40 event), the trainer boasting a strike rate of 29% via a ratio of 5/15 (five points of LSP into the bargain).

Six furlong apprentice handicap scheduled for 2.30: Alan McCabe potentially saddles Opus Dei in an event where the trainer has saddled a medallist of each colour despite there having been only two renewals to date.  The inaugural 7/2 favourite duly obliged before last year‘s 3/1 market leader could only finish fourth, missing out on a toteplacepot position.

Five furlong juvenile event due to be contested at 3.00: Market leaders have won seven of the twelve renewals to date, whilst ten favourites have snared toteplacepot positions in the process.  The biggest priced winner thus far started at just 13/2, whilst eleven of the winners were returned at 100/30 or less.

All aged one mile handicap scheduled at 4.00: Horses carrying weights of 9-1 or more have secured five of the last six renewals, whilst Michael Dods held two entries earlier in the week for a race in which he has saddled three of the last six winners.  Two of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include one winner.

Six furlong handicap for fillies due to be contested at 4.00: Five of the thirteen favourites (via twelve renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far (three winners).

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

6-4-1 (12 ran-good to firm)

14-8-15 (15 ran-good)

2-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-11-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (7 ran-firm)

6-4-3 (9 ran-good)

14-13-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-1-3 (9 ran-firm)

11-3-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

5-10-8-2 (17 ran-firm)

11-9-15 (15 ran-firm)

8-2-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

Seventeen furlong handicap scheduled for 4.30: All six winners to date have carried weights of 8-12 or more, whilst four of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners) via five renewals (one dead heat) to date.

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All aged ten furlong maiden event scheduled for 5.00: Three-year-olds have won eleven of the last twelve renewals, whilst six of the eleven favourites have won to date during the study period, whilst 10 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs)

3-2-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

12-8-3 (12 ran-good)

10-4-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

16-11-6 (17 ran-good to soft)

2-6-3 (8 ran-firm)

13-16-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

8-9-6 (12 ran-good to soft)

2-4 (5 ran-firm)

2-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

1-2-7 (8 ran-firm)

9-11-2 (8 ran-firm)

5-2-6 (11 ran-good to firm)



General stats: Ed Walker’s 7/11 stats are truly outstanding, especially having produced over fifty points of level stake profits in the process.  Peter Chapple-Hyam also does well with his runners here and his team are showing signs of coming back into top form. 



General stats: Michael Murphy’s 38% strike rate from the saddle hails from a ratio of 6/16, statistics which have produced an LSP figure of eighteen points.


FRIDAY 21/09:


General stats: Frankie Dettori (4/10) and Jim Crowley (3/5) are rare visitors to this part of the world and the two pilots have secured the thick end of an aggregate of fifty points of level stake profits.



General stats: Roger Varian has saddled five horses at Brighton in total: 2YO stats: 1/2--3YO stats: 2/3.



General stats: Rae Guest has enjoyed a purple patch of late and his Lingfield strike rate of 5/23 is backed up by an LSP figure of thirty-four points.



General stats: Ron Hodges (6/16), Ed McMahon (5/16) and Paul D’Arcy (4/15) are (respectfully)  ‘lesser’ trainers to consider, especially given their aggregate LSP figure of sixty points.

Six furlong juvenile event scheduled for 2.00: Fourteen of the last nineteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs)

7-11-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-7-10 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-3-2 (12 ran-good)

1-7-9 (12 ran-good)

9-12-3 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-13-5 (10 ran-good)

9-10-1 (11 ran-good)

6-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-10-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

10-16-6 (16 ran-good)

1-6-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

9-5-11 (10 ran-good)

16-1-3 (16 ran-good to firm)

7-3-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

20-8-3 (23 ran-good to firm)

13-17-20 (20 ran-good to firm)

10-15-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

Class 3 twelve furlong handicap scheduled for 2.30: Four renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded since the inaugural winner scored at 3/1 back in 2007.  Three-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests.

Nine furlong conditions event scheduled for 3.05: Five favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium, whilst eleven winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Juvenile Class 2 conditions event scheduled for 3.40: Marcus Tregoning does not saddle a great number of juvenile winners in a season as a general rule, whereby it is significant that the trainer attempts to win this race for the fourth time in the last ten years via two newcomers which were still in evidence at the five-day stage.  Four favourites have won of late (last year‘s 4/7 market leader was beaten however), whilst ten of the last sixteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

'Draw factor' (eight furlongs)

3-4 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-5-8 (10 ran-good)

7-5 (6 ran -good to firm)

1-7 (6 ran-good)

1-10-2 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-6 (7 ran-good)

2-8-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-5 (5 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-6-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-8-7 (8 ran-good)

3-2 (6 ran-good)

Seven furlong conditions event due to be contested at 4.15: Eleven different trainers have won this event during in as any years, whilst eight of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years (five winners).

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs)

3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-5-4 (8 ran--good)

6-2-3 (12 ran-good to firm)

9-11-3 (11 ran-good)

5-9-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-2-7 (13 ran-good)

6-3 (7 ran-good to firm)

5 (4 ran--good)

6-8-5 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-5 (7 ran-good)

Dubai Duty Free Cup (Listed event) schedule for 4.50: Five renewals have slipped by since the last successful favourite was recorded.  Saeed Bin Suroor has secured three of the last ten renewals with the trainer holding five options for the race at the time of writing.

Ten furlong Class 4 handicap scheduled for 5.20: Four-year-olds have secured eight of the last nine renewals.  Only two favourites have obliged during the last decade, with six gold medallists having been sent off at odds ranging between 14/1 & 25/1.



General stats: Ted Durcan has had an up and down season, having ridden the runner-up in the Epsom Derby, whilst still struggling for rides for former top employers.  Ted’s record at Wolverhampton includes a strike rate of 23%, which is backed up by twelve points of level stake profits.




General stats: Keith Dalgleish is back among the winners and a big race winner at Ayr cannot be far away given his racecourse ratio of 20% via sixteen winners, figures backed up by an LSP return of twenty-three points.

Ayr Gold Cup scheduled for 3.30: David Nicholls has saddled four winners during the last decade against Kevin Ryan’s pair of winners during the study period.  Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight contests.  The ten winners were returned at odds ranging between 11/1 and 33/1 with no successful market leaders recorded.  Eight of the eleven favourites secured toteplacepot positions.  Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2.

‘Draw details’ (six furlongs)

12-16-9-15 (26 ran-soft)

17-24-8-11 (26 ran-good)

15-6-9-3 (26 ran-good)

20-21-26-11 (27 ran-heavy)

22-6-9-18 (28 ran-good to soft)

6-16-9-26 (23 ran-good to soft)

2-4-27-3 (27 ran-good)

8-16-18-20 (24 ran-soft)

10-14-6-1 (26 ran-good)

16-10-15-18 (28 ran-good)



General stats: Jo Hughes raiders are invariably worth a second glance given her 2/4 strike rate, which is improved to 1/1 via her one juvenile raider to date.



General stats: The 5/15 ratio enjoyed by Patrick Chamings at Newbury is worth reporting, as is his fifteen points of level stake profit at the venue in recent years.




General stats: Andrew Balding and Ralph Beckett have produced an aggregate of two hundred and thirty-five points of level stake profits during the last five years via their combined total of twenty-eight winners at the venue.



General stats: Gerard Butler’s 23% strike rate via eighteen winners has produced an LSP figure of thirty-two points of level stake profits at Dunstall Park.

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