Well, I Declare! 19th to 23rd June 2012

Well I Declare, 19th to 23rd June 2012

Well, I Declare! 19th to 23rd June 2012

Well, I Declare! 19th to 23rd June 2012

Royal Ascot has come around again and I hope that some of the information below helps you to have an enjoyable and successful week!

The following stats are based on last year’s results at the meeting which some readers might like to take into account.

30 Races (total of 32 market leaders): 10 winning favourites which produced a level stake profit of 2.2 points.

Two of the three on market leaders won, the short priced favourite (4/11) being the odd one out!

Average price of the six winners on each day (via percentages):

Tuesday: 85/40 (three successful favourites)

Wednesday: 10/1 (No successful market leaders)

Thursday: 4/1 (three winning favourites)

Friday: 13/2 (two market leaders won)

Saturday: 18/5 (two favourites prevailed)


Average priced winner during the entire week: 4/1

Trainers who saddled four winners or more in 2011:

4--Aidan O’Brien (4/1*-5/2*-11/8*-4/6*)

3--Richard Hannon (12/1-11/1-11/8)

2-- Tom Dascombe (8/1 & 4/1**)

2--James Fanshawe (25/1 & 15/2)

2--John Gosden (12/1 & 11/4*)

2--M. Johnston (12/1 & 7/2*)

2--Hughie Morrison (20/1 & 8/1)

 

Doubles on the day:

Tuesday: None

Wednesday: Richard Hannon (155/1)

Thursday: Hughie Morrison (188/1)

Friday: John Gosden: (47/1)

Saturday: James Fanshawe (220/1) & Aidan O’Brien (9/2)

 

Trainers who saddled at least two beaten favourites during the week:

4--Aidan O’Brien

2--Richard Hannon

2--Sir Michael Stoute

 

Juvenile sector (6 races):

Winning trainers:

Aidan O’Brien (4/1* & 5/2*)

David Brown (9/4*)

Mick Channon (16/1)

Richard Hannon 12/1)

Kevin Ryan (6/1)

 

Trainers of beaten two-year-old favourites:

Jim Bolger (5/4)

Paul Cole (4/1)

Brian Meehan (6/5)

 

Day by day facts and figures for your perusal:

 

TUESDAY 19/06:

Royal Ascot:

Last year’s toteplacepot dividend on Tuesday: £40.20

Average toteplacepot dividend for Tuesday over the last 10 years: £1515.95

2.30: Queen Anne Stakes: Four-year-olds have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals, although five-year-olds have won three of the last five contests. Two favourites have scored in the last fifteen years, whilst six market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

3.05: King’s Stand Stakes: Six of the last nine renewals have been won by overseas raiders, whilst five-year-olds come to the gig having won two of the last three contests. Two of the last five favourites have won, whilst nine of the last eighteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions going back further in time.

3.45: St James’s Palace Stakes: Aidan O’Brien has won six of the last twelve renewals of the feature race on day one of the royal meeting, whilst it should not be forgotten that his 20/1 representative Zoffany made Frankel pull out all the stops twelve months ago.  Aidan’s runners this time around are Power and Wrote.

Market leaders have won nine of the last thirteen contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last 14 years was an 8/1 chance.  Eleven of the fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

4.25: Coventry Stakes: Aidan O’Brien has won six of the last fourteen renewals of the Coventry Stakes, whilst six clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won this event during the study period.  Twelve of the seventeen market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  Aidan saddles Cristoforo Colombo and Lines Of Battle on this occasion. Richard Hannon has saddled two of the last three winners and though the trainer has declared four runners, Sir Prancealot stands out from the crowd.

Starting prices stats in the last nine years:
7/1 or less: Eight winners—-5 placed—-20 unplaced
15/2 or more: One winner—-13 placed-—101 unplaced
28/1 or more: No winners-—3 placed—-52 unplaced.

5.00: Ascot Stakes: Bookmakers might need a ‘result’ by the time this race comes around and with four of the last eight winners having scored at 33/1--25/1--20/1--20/1, the layers have every hope of retrieving any losses which they have incurred during the afternoon.  Four-year-olds towards the top of the weight fit positive trends, whilst Six of the fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 13 years (one winner).  Although nine winners during the study period were returned in double figures only two extreme outsiders (given the nature of the contest--25/1 or more) have prevailed.

5.35: ‘Windsor Castle‘:  Mick Channon has saddled winners at 14/1 & 5/2 and placed runners returned at 25/1--12/1--10/1--3/1 via a total of 12 raiders in recent years.  Mick has opted for Pay Freeze and Bungleinthejungle to be his representatives this year.  Three favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst seven of the fourteen market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed toteplacepot positions.
Starting price stats in the last nine years:
3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-2 unplaced
Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 1 winner--2 placed—24 unplaced
8/1 or more: 5 winners—-14 placed-—110 unplaced

 

Brighton:

General stats: Only one 9/4 (joint) market leader had prevailed during the first races on the card whereby the successful 3/1 favourite in the finale might have been a life saver for some investors.


Thirsk:

General stats: The trainer/jockey team of Tim Easterby and David Allan secured a 13/1 double on last year’s card via 100/30 and 9/4 winners at Thirsk. Tim has declared six runners at the meeting this time around.


Newton Abbot:

General stats: It remains unknown just how many fingers punters had intact via burned hands because by the time the last race recorded a winning 5/6 market leader, horses had prevailed at 80/1-28/1-6/1-6/1-11/4 earlier on the card. 

 

WEDNESDAY 20/06:

Royal Ascot:

Last year’s toteplacepot dividend on Wednesday: £393.10

Average toteplacepot dividend for Wednesday over the last 10 years: £699.02

2.30: Jersey Stakes: Seventeen of the last twenty four available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses in single odds figures, despite that fact that favourites have a poor recent record in the contest.  The last ten favourites have all been beaten, though five of the relevant market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.

3.05: Windsor Forest Stakes:  Four-year-olds have a good record in this event, boasting fourteen horses that have claimed toteplacepot positions from the twenty four available places to date, statistics which include six of the eight winners. Six of the ten market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (two winners).

3.45: Prince Of Wales’s Stakes: Four and five-year-olds have won all twelve renewals since the turn of the Millennium in of one of the feature races of the entire week.  Four-year-olds come to the ‘Prince of Wales gig’ on a six-timer on this occasion. Five of the last fifteen favourites have won, whilst eleven market leaders have reached the frame in the process.

4.25: Royal Hunt Cup: Twelve of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, whilst five of the last sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winner--three years ago).

5.00: ‘Queen Mary’: Four clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last 15 renewals, whilst twelve of the eighteen market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

Starting prices in the last six years:
11/2 or less: 5 winners—-7 placed—-10 unplaced
6/1 or more: 4 winners—-11 placed—-109 unplaced
22/1 or more: 1 winner-—3 placed-—61 unplaced

5.35: Sandringham Handicap: Ten of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, whilst two clear, one joint and one co favourite have obliged of late. Twelve of the nineteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

Hamilton:

General stats: Kevin Ryan upset the majority of punters in the first race on the card last year when saddling a 33/1 winner of the opening event.  Kevin redressed the situation when securing a 109/1 double at the meeting by firing in a 9/4 favourite in the fourth event.  Kevin saddles just two runners at the meeting this week.

 

Ripon:

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General stats: Punters will be happy if there is a repeat prescription on the card this time around as last’s year’s corresponding meeting produced four winning favourites, the other two gold medallists having been sent off as 5/1 chances.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Punters looking for compensation for losses at the royal meeting earlier in the day (all six favourites were beaten at Ascot) were in trouble by the fifth race as the first four gold medallists had scored at 25/1-12/1-15/2-15/2.  Fortunately, two of the last three market leaders obliged at 5/2 and 5/2 with a third 15/2 chance scoring on the card in between the successful favourites. 

 

Worcester:

General stats: Racegoers at Worcester probably wondered why punters had bothered trying to search out winners at Royal Ascot, given that the ever reliable Paul Nicholls landed a 15/1 double at the NH venue via winners at 100/30 and 11/4.  Paul held six options at the four-day stage this time around.

 

THURSDAY 21/06:

Royal Ascot:

Last year’s toteplacepot dividend on Thursday: £209.20

Average toteplacepot dividend for Thursday over the last 10 years: £880.03

2.30: Norfolk Stakes: Nine of the sixteen favourites during the last fourteen years claimed toteplacepot positions (four winners).  Eight of the last eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (statistics include four winners and three market leaders which finished second).
‘First three in the betting’ in the last nine years: 7 winners—8 placed—12 unplaced
Starting prices in the last seven years:
4/1 or less: 6 winners—5 placed—6 unplaced
9/2 or more: 3 winners—13 placed—68 unplaced
25/1 or more: 1 runner in the frame (second)—33 unplaced

3.05: Ribblesdale Stakes: Just two clear winning favourites has been recorded since 1998, ’recent’ scorers having been recorded at 25/1—22/1—14/1—12/1—10/1.  Twelve of the seventeen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

3.45: Ascot Gold Cup: Eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last fifteen years, statistics which include six successful favourites during the period. Aidan O’Brien has won five of the last six contests with an 8/1 representative having been beaten a neck in the year (2010) in which the trainer missed out.

4.25: Brittania Handicap: The last eight winners of the ‘Britannia’ have carried weights of 8-10 or more.  The record of favourites in this event is plenty good enough given the competitive nature of the contest on an annual basis. Three clear market leaders have prevailed in the last fifteen years, alongside a joint market leader back in 1999.  Six of the nineteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

5.00: Group 3 event--formerly the ‘Hampton Court’: Four favourites has won via twelve renewals, though the first market leader was withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed back in 2000. No other favourites have finished in the frame.

5.35: King George V Handicap:  Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of three of the last ten with the trainer holding six options at the five-day stage. The last ten winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less, whilst ten of the eighteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years (three winners).

 

Leicester:

General stats: Ex champion jockey Kieren Fallon sent favourite backers home with smiles on their faces via a 6/1 double in the last two events on the card, albeit the last race winner was returned as a 2/1 joint market leader.

 

Ripon:

General stats: Ruth Carr saddled the last two winners on the card in 2011 via 13/2 and 3/1 gold medallists, stats which equate to a 25/1 double. Ruth held two options for the meeting earlier in the week.

 

Warwick:

General stats: The only successful market leader on an eight race card twelve months ago obliged at odds of 4/9 whereby favourite backers did not fair well at the meeting via level stake losses of 6.56 points.

 

Ffos Las:

General stats: Seven different winners in the trainer ranks on last year’s card, though Donal Fahy enjoyed a great day in the saddle by riding a 194/1 double.

 

Fontwell:

General stats: The kingpins of NH racing both held entries at Fontwell on Thursday as Nicky Henderson (38% strike rate via fourteen winners during the last five years) and Paul Nicholls (35% via 31 gold medallists) potentially went head to head at the meeting at the time of writing. 

 

FRIDAY 22/06:

Royal Ascot:

Last year’s toteplacepot dividend on Friday: £2568.10

Average toteplacepot dividend for Friday over the last 10 years: £810.95

2.30: Albany Stakes: Seven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions via ten renewals to date (two winners). Horses foaled in February or March have won the last nine renewals whilst claiming an additional eleven toteplacepot positions.
‘First three in the betting’ in the last nine years: 3 winners—-7 placed—-17 unplaced.

3.05: ‘King Edward VII’: The best race for favourite backers throughout the five days, with nine of the last fifteen market leaders having prevailed, with the biggest winning price recorded at 9/1 during the study period.  Three of the other six market leaders finished out of the frame.

3.45: Coronation Stakes: The biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was an 8/1 chance, during which time seven market leaders have won, albeit those figures include three joint favourites.  Ten of the last nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

4.25: Wolferton Handicap: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last twelve renewals of this Class 1 handicap contest whilst eleven of those winners carried weights of 9-5 or less during the study period. Six of the last seventeen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two successful clear market leaders and one joint favourite.

5.00: Queen’s Vase: Eight of the last fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.  Fourteen of the last fifteen winners were returned at odds of 7/1 or less. Mark Johnston (for those of you who like to keep records) has secured five of the last eleven renewals though the trainer was not represented at the five-day stage.

5.35: Buckingham Palace Handicap: <p><b>5.35</b> Seven of the ten winners to date have carried weights of 8-12 or less. We still await the first winning favourite following ten renewals. Horses have scored at 33/1--25/1--25/1--14/1--12/1--12/1--12/1--10/1--8/1--8/1, whilst just three market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

Ayr:

General stats: Jim Goldie saddled a 41/1 treble (winners at 7/2-3/1-11/8), whilst Brian Ellison won with gold medallists returned at 7/1 & 5/2 (27/1 double) twelve months ago.  Jim looks like he is going for gold this year as no less than sixteen inmates were included at the meeting at the four-day stage!

 

Goodwood:

General stats: Clive Cox saddled the first two winners on last years card when securing a 20/1 double via winners at 7/1 and 11/8. Clive had four representatives potentially involved on Monday night when I last looked at the situation.

 

Newmarket (July):

General stats: The last two favourites bailed punters out of trouble on last year’s card, the first five winners having scored at 25/1-14/1-11/1-6/1-7/2.

 

Redcar:

General stats: Michael Dods snared the thick end of a 9/1 double via 7/2 & 6/5 winners at last year’s corresponding meeting. Michael held three options for Friday’s card at the time of writing.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Alan Swinbank is something of a dark horse at the Lincolnshire venue boasting nearly nine points of level stake profits during the last five years.  Alan’s strike rate stands at 34% via fourteen winners at the venue.

 

SATURDAY 23/06:

Royal Ascot:

Last year’s toteplacepot dividend on Saturday: £262.70

Average toteplacepot dividend for Saturday over the last 10 years: £495.15

2.30: Chesham Stakes: 11 of the last 13 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with five winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.  If I could point you in the way of one horse this week it would probably be Jalaa from Richard Hannon’s stable which has won this race twice in the last four year.  I cannot recall a juvenile race at the meeting in recent years in which Richard held just one entry at the penultimate stage.  Jalaa was an impressive winner of his Leicester maiden and was convinced that the Street Cry colt would be far better on a sound surface; hence the reason for opting for this event rather than the ‘Coventry’ which was on the trainer’s mind after the race.  The ground should have dried out considerably during the week according to local weather forecasters.
‘First three in the betting’ in the last nine years: 6 winners—-8 placed—-15 unplaced.

Starting prices stats in the last nine years:
7/1 or less: 8 winners—-8 placed—-15 unplaced
15/2 or more: 1 winner—-10 placed-—72 unplaced

Foaling stats in the last nine years:
January: 2 winners & 4 places
February: 4 winners & 2 places
March: 1 winner & 8 places
April: No winners & 4 places
May: 2 winners

3.05: Hardwick Stakes: Four favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, whilst ten of the last sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions. Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last six winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and the trainer held two options earlier in the week.

3.45: Golden Jubilee Stakes: Thirteen of the last fourteen favourites have been beaten, whilst seven of the last fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

4.25: Wokingham Handicap: The four-year-olds represent a vintage that has snared seven victories in this contest in the last thirteen years, whilst five-year-olds have won six times during the last fourteen years.  Seven of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners). The last five winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less, as have twelve of the last twenty horses to have finished in the frame. Johnny Murtagh has ridden the last winners of the contest (15/2 & 9/2*).

5.00: Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap: Mark Johnston has saddled two of the last three winners and the trainer held six options at the penultimate entry stage. Eight of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst four-year-olds have won five of the last seven contests. Eight of the last fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winning favourite).

5.35: Queen Alexandra Stakes: Eight of the last ten winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less. Four of the last twelve favourites have prevailed, with another four market leaders finishing in the frame. Paul Nicholls held one entry at the time of writing (American Trilogy) which made for interesting reading.

Ayr:

General stats: Richard Fahey saddled a 1133/1 treble on last year’s Ayr card on the final day of the Royal Ascot meeting via winners returned at 20/1--11/1--7/2. Richard will struggle to equal the achievement this time around with just four possible runners potentially engaged at the time of writing.

 

Haydock:

General stats: Richard Fahey was also in (27/1) double form at Haydock saddling winners at 7/1 and 5/2.  Barry Hills was also among the winners at 7/2 and 1/4 (9/2 double) whereby son Charlie will be under pressure to beat dad’s effort twelve months on.  Both trainers were well represented at the five-day stage with Charlie seemingly intent on saddling winners with brother Michael already booked aboard several of his raiders.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourites scored on last year’s six race card.  The other gold medallists obliged at 5/1 and 12/1.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourites scored on last year’s eight race card.  The other winners prevailed at 3/1-13/2-7/1-8/1.

 

Redcar:

General stats: Three of the eight favourites won on last year‘s card, the other winners having scored at 5/2-3/1-7/1-9/1-12/1.