Well, I Declare! 01/06/12

Well I Declare, 1st June 2012

Well, I Declare! 01/06/12

Well, I Declare! 01/06/12

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Now, onto today's action: the highlight, of course, is the Oaks card from Epsom and we've the lowdown on that plus the vital draw stats for the meeting, but we're not done there! We've also got information about the racing at Brighton, Haydock, Newcastle, Pontefract and Stratford in a busy old day!

We start naturally with Epsom:

General stats: If you don’t particularly fancy any horse in a race at Epsom over the next few days, it might be worth considering whatever Seb Sanders partners, given Seb’s exceptional 12/38 strike rate at one of the toughest track to ride in the world, figures which have produced an LSP figure in excess of seventy-two points during the last five years.

Listed Princess Elizabeth event scheduled for 1.40: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last twelve renewals of this contest. Six of the last nine favourites have prevailed as have seven of the latest fourteen market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 7/1.

'Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

7-1-8 (8 ran-good)
5-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)
5-8-7 (8 ran-good)
6-8-5 (9 ran-good)
6-4-5 (10 ran-good to soft)
5-2-3 (10 ran-good)
4 (3 ran-good)
10-1-5 (8 ran-good)
4-5-1 (8 ran-good)
6-5 (6 ran-soft)
2-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)
3-4-7 (10 ran-good to soft)
2-1 (6 ran-good to soft)
3-5-6 (8 ran-good)


Class 2 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 2.15
: Four-year-olds have dominated this event, as vintage representatives have snared six of the last 14 renewals.  Three favourites have won during the study period, whilst five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

8-1-5 (11 ran-good)
10-5-3 (12 ran-good)
4-11-6 (10 ran-good)
5-2-1 (10 ran-good)
1-4-11 (12 ran-good to soft)
13-12-4-2 (17 ran-good)
10-8-15-14 (17 ran-good)
1-3-7 (11 ran-good)
6-7-2 (14 ran-good)
10-1-9 (11 ran-good to soft)
10-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)
14-7-6 (14 ran-good)
10-3-8 (15 ran-good)
3-8-10 (14 ran-good)
Diomed Stakes due to be contested at 2.50: Ten of the last fourteen winners have scored at 8/1 or less (three winning favourites).

'Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

1-8-6 (8 ran-good to firm)
8-2-9 (9 ran-good)
4-8-7 (8 ran-good)
5-8-4 (8 ran-good)
2-3 (5 ran-good)
2-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
1-4 (7 ran-good)
3-1-10 (11 ran-good)
9-11-3 (10 ran-good)
6-8-7 (9 ran-good to soft)
6-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
2-3 (5 ran-good)
4-2 (6 ran-good)
3-1-2 (10 ran-good)

 

Class 2 eight and a half furlong handicap scheduled for 3.25: Four-year-olds have called the shots in this race, as eight vintage representatives have won during the last fourteen years, statistics which include six of the last ten gold medallists. Two favourites have won during the study period, whilst seven of the last sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

4-12-17-15 (18 ran-good)
10-8-6 (14 ran-good)
12-3-8 (9 ran-good)
11-14-10 (14 ran-good)
4-9-14 (14 ran-good to soft)
15-2-1-12 (16 ran-good)
4-1-6 (11 ran-good)
8-11-7 (13 ran-good)
5-1-3-15 (16 ran-good)
1-10-5 (10 ran-soft)
3-9-2 (11 ran-good to firm)
3-10-16 (14 ran-good to soft)
9-8-5 (14 ran-good to soft)
15-14-7 (14 ran-good)

 

The Oaks scheduled for 4.05: Aidan O’Brien has saddled 18 horses in the second fillies classic of the season since the Irish trainer last tasted success with Alexandrova back in 2006.  The fact that five stable representatives have secured toteplacepot positions during the ‘negative period’ suggests that at least one runner from Ballydoyle should be included in the toteplacepot mix.

Only eleven of the ninety horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners) during the last fourteen years.  Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent seasons.  Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs--most recent renewal offered first):

7-12-2 (13 ran-good)
15-4-2 (14 ran-good)
5-2-9 (10 ran-good)
13-10-11 (16 ran-good)
11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)
5-3-10 (10 ran-good)
2-4-9 (12 ran-good)
3-6 (7 ran-good)
7-11-9 (15 ran-good)
13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)
10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)
5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)
5-4-8 (8 ran-good)

 

Seven furlong ‘Surrey Stakes’ due to be contested at 4.50: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won to date via fourteen renewals, taking into account that the favourite four years ago was withdrawn shortly before the off before a new market could be formed.  Nine of the fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

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'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

5-1 (6 ran-good)
1-3-6 (8 ran-good)
9-2-5 (9 ran-good)
3-9 (7 ran-good)
2-3-10 (9 ran-good to soft)
5-4 (6 ran-good)
7-2-9 (9 ran-good)
2-9-7 (9 ran-good)
3-5 (5 ran-soft)
6-7 (7 ran-good to firm)
5-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)
1-4 (6 ran-good)
1-5-9 (9 ran-good)

 

3YO Class 2 handicap over seven furlongs scheduled for 5.25: The last six market leaders have finished out of the frame since the last successful favourite obliged.  Three favourites have prevailed during the last decade.

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

7-8-9 (11 ran-good)
1-3-6 (10 ran-good)
9-13-5 (15 ran-good)
11-9-10 (11 ran-good)
1-9-4 (11 ran-good to soft)
3-8-12 (13 ran-good)
8-13-14 (14 ran-good)
8-14-11-4 (17 ran-good)
1-6-11-14 (16 ran-good)
6-12-3 (12 ran-soft)
The Derby (Saturday):

Aidan O’Brien has saddled two winners and eight placed horses during the last thirteen years and with five of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1, few of his runners in the Epsom Derby should ever be ignored.  Camelot looks like the being first odds on favourite to hopefully win the Epsom Derby since Shergar obliged back in 1989. Two beaten odds on chances have been recorded since Walter Swinburn struck gold, as both Entrepreneur (1997) and Tenby (1993) failed to deliver the goods. The last thirteen winners of The Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include four favourites of one sort or another.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-10-2 (12 ran-good)
3-14-10 (16 ran-good)
14-8-2 (17 ran-good)
10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-12-4 (13 ran-good)
6-11-3 (14 ran-good)
4-16-8 (20 ran-good)
9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)
10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
15-7-10 (15 ran-good)
1-5-17 (16 ran-good)
14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

 

Brighton:

General stats: Mahmood Al Zarooni had won with three of the six juveniles he had saddled this season at the time of writing and the trainer boasts 4/12 figures in the two-year-old sector at Brighton.  Please also note Brighton’s comments for Thursday’s meeting.

 

Haydock:

General stats: Roger Varian’s 37% strike rate at Haydock has produced the thick end of thirty points of level stake profits during his short career.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Luke Morris (2/7 at Newcastle) is a rare visitor to the North-East but Luke did have a couple of provisional bookings earlier in the week.

 

Pontefract:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor (11/34) and Ralph Beckett (5/17) boast exceptional figures at Pontefract and their entries should be treated with plenty of respect if the relevant horses are offered the green light on Friday. 

 

Stratford:

General stats: Anthony Honeyball (3/8) and Charlie Longsdon (13/54) are showing scant respect for the record of Paul Nicholls who has dominated this venue in recent years. 

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