Well, I Declare!

Well I Declare, 1st May 2012

Well, I Declare!

Well, I Declare!

As you're all too well aware, the recent deluge has led to the racing programme being decimated. Mal Boyle has taken this into consideration in this week's editon of "Well, I Declare!"

As the rain continues to cause havoc, I am offering some training stats to offset a reduced normal service this week because I do not believe in wasting my time or yours.

Juvenile stats--trainers:

Don’t become preoccupied with Richard Hannon’s two-year-olds having made a slow start to the season because as the stats below show, Richard was a tad tardy out of the traps this time last year.  Just remember how the winners started to flow from May onwards, stats which you can find below the opening work.


Last year’s leading juvenile trainers on the 1st May 2011:

7/17 Richard Fahey (last year’s final total: 45/323--this year’s stats to date: 2/6)

7/47 David Evans (last year’s final total: 25/291--this year’s stats to date: 2/12)

4/11 Tom Dascombe (last year’s final total: 22/170--this year’s stats to date: 0/14)

4/15 Richard Hannon (last year’s final total: 126/736--this year’s stats to date: 2/12)

4/21 Mick Channon (last year’s final total: 43/376--this year’s stats to date: 4/21)

3/6 David Barron (last year’s final total: 12/67--this year’s stats to date: 0/1)

2/9 Stan Moore (last year’s final total: 19/151--this year’s stats to date: 0/7)

2/11 Tim Easterby (last year’s final total: 27/255--this year’s stats to date: 1/12)

2/12 Bill Turner (last year’s final total: 5/58--this year’s stats to date: 5/12)

2/16 Alan McCabe (last year’s final total: 13/119--this year’s stats to date: 0/2)


Richard Hannon’s monthly juvenile totals last year:

April: 4/15

May: 11/62

June: 15/93

July: 21/137

August: 17/129

September: 28/133

October: 22/112

November: 6/34

December: 2/21


Selection of trainers stats during the month of May 2011.

Figures are offered from both a positive and a negative viewpoint to assist punters during the month:

Richard Fahey: 27 winners

2YO: 9/32

3YO: 8/39

4YO+: 10/76


Mark Johnston: 27 winners

2YO: 8/35

3YO: 14/72

4YO+: 5/58


Richard Hannon: 21 winners

2YO: 11/62

3YO: 6/83

4YO+: 4/24


Mick Channon: 19 winners

2YO: 10/41

3YO: 7/60

4YO+: 2/15


Andrew Balding: 12 winners

2YO: 1/4

3YO: 5/31

4YO+: 6/36


John Gosden: 12 winners

2YO: 0/4

3YO: 9/48

4YO+: 3/12


Sir Henry Cecil: 10 winners

2YO: 0/1

3YO: 6/29

4YO+: 4/16


Luca Cumani: 10 winners

2YO: ---

3YO: 6/35

4YO+: 4/20


Sir Michael Stoute: 10 winners

2YO: ---

3YO: 9/33

4YO+: 1/16


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Roger Varian: 10 winners

2YO: 0/1

3YO: 7/29

4YO+: 3/8


Jeremy Noseda: 9 winners

2YO: 3/10

3YO: 5/17

4YO+: 1/7


Brian Meehan: 8 winners

2YO: 2/22

3YO: 5/39

4YO+: 1/16


Mahmood Al Zarooni: 8 winners

2YO: 0/8

3YO: 8/28

4YO+: 0/1


Michael Bell: 6 winners

2YO: 0/4

3YO: 5/33

4YO+: 1/11


Willie Haggas: 5 winners

2YO: 0/4

3YO: 5/29

4YO+: 0/14


Saeed Bin Suroor: 4 winners

2YO: 0/3

3YO: 2/10

4YO+: 2/16


Now back to the normal service--good luck with all your bets this week!


TUESDAY 01/05:


General stats: Vertibes (the trainer’s only runner on the card) represents Marcus Tregoning who boasts a 28% strike rate at the venue.  The Verglas gelding was also in at Leicester on Thursday at the time of writing. 



General stats: Timmy Murphy has just one booked ride all the way up at Sedgefield on Tuesday and it’s worth noting the pilot has ridden three of his five mounts at the track in recent years to winning effect.  The horse in question this time around is Shanen who (due to contest the 8.15 event).
***Shanen was a 5/1 winner!***



General stats: Represented trainers Vic Dartnell and Kim Bailey both boast strike rates of 23% at Exeter during the last five years, boasting an aggregate of over forty two points of level stake profit.
***Kim Bailey's only runner was a winner at evens!***



General stats: Roger Varian (31%), Charlie Hills (29%), Mahmood Al Zarooni (27%) and John Gosden (24%) lead the way from a strike rate perspective given the represented trainers at Lingfield on Tuesday. 



General stats: Ryan Moore has won on two of the six three-year-olds he has ridden for Harry Dunlop and the duo are represented by Mitch Rapp (7.05).




General stats: Flying Applause (3.15) is the only Roy Bowring runner on the card, the trainer having saddled three of his thirteen runners at Pontefract to winning effect. 



General stats: This is a Hunter Chase meeting whereby the majority of trainers are not regular visitors to Prestbury Park.  Philip Hobbs and Ian Williams held entries at the time of writing, both handlers boasting 13% strike rates at Cheltenham in recent times. 



General stats: Simon Shirley-Beaven has a few horses entered up this week, one of which (Rapidolyte De Ladalka) was due to run at Kelso at the time of writing where the trainer has saddled five winners via just eleven runners of late.

Kempton (Ascot’s transferred meeting):

2.00: All ten winners have scored at 6/1 or less, whilst four favourites have prevailed to date.  Last year’s beaten 1/4 favourite burned some figures however.  Seven of the 12 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

2.35:  ‘Fancied’ horses had won all ten previous renewals (top priced winner of 8/1), before a 16/1 chance came and upset the apple-cart twelve months ago.  Five favourites have won, whilst eight of the 12 market leaders have finished in the frame.

3.10: Six-year-olds had the best record in this event having secured four of the first seven renewals before a lone 16/1 vintage representative finished out of the frame last year.  Four of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners), though it’s worth noting that a 4/9 favourite in a ’win only’ contest was turned over two years ago.

3.45: Thirteen of the last fourteen favourites have been beaten in this ‘Sagaro Stakes’, with just four of the fifteen market leaders finishing in the frame in the process. That said, twelve of the last fourteen winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

4.20: Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more.  Two of the last eight favourites have won, though the successful pair were the only market leaders to prevail during the study period. That having been said, fancied runners have performed well in the main, with ten of the last fourteen favourites having secured toteplacepot positions.  Seven of the last eight winners have scored at odds ranging between 13/8 and 11/2.

4.55: Four-year-olds have secured 12 of the 21 available toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include four of the six winners.  Three of the six market leaders have reached the frame (one winner).



General stats: Charlie Mann has saddled ten winners via thirty six runners at Southwell during the last five years, producing an LSP figure of sixteen points for good measure.




General stats: Mark Johnston raids one of his furthest ‘outposts’ to good effect, boasting a strike rate of 31% whilst enjoying over forty points of level stake profits during the last five years.  David Simcock’s runners are also worth plenty of respect.


General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor will be hoping that the meeting survives this morning’s inspection given his 39% strike rate at the track. 



General stats: Julie Camacho has a couple of runners earmarked for the meeting over the next couple of days, the trainer having saddled four of her nine runners at the course to winning effect. 



General stats: Rebecca Curtis and Jim Best both enjoy a 32% strike rate here, though the runners of lesser known trainers such as David Richards (3/5) and Barry Leavy (3/9) are worth consideration. 


FRIDAY 04/05:


General stats: Peter Chapple-Hyam doesn’t send many runners here as his 2/5 record shows but the trainer held two options earlier in the week.



General stats: Boxing Shadows potentially represents Bryan Smart who absolutely excels with his juvenile runners at Musselburgh via a 49% strike rate.  Bryan has saddled seventeen juvenile winners here, stats which are miles clear of at any other track in Britain as far as Bryan is concerned. 



General stats: John Berry saddled an 8/1 winner at Sandown the other day (his only runner all week) and John’s lone entry here at the time of writing was Asterisk, the trainer having saddled two of his three runners at Bangor to victory of late. 



General stats: Andy Turnell (4/11) boasts decent stats at Fontwell, albeit Paul Nicholls (33%) and Nicky Henderson (32%) tend to dominate races when they are represented.



General stats: Jeremy Noseda (33%) and Saeed Bin Suroor (31%) boast decent strike rates with Roger Varian (4/11) and Roger Butler (4/12) breathing down their respective necks, albeit via far less runners. 




General stats: Aidan O’Brien has saddled no less than twenty-eight horses in the 2000 Guineas during the last 13 years (the trainer has won three of the last seven renewals), winning four renewals in total whilst claiming an additional two toteplacepot positions in the process. The important factor to remember relating to Aidan’s four winners during the study period is that they all came here and won at Newmarket without a prep run, as do potential raiders Camelot and Power this time around.  Last year’s lone stable representative was Roderic O’Connor who (like the other eleven beaten runners) was run off his feet by Frankel, though the Galileo colt won the Irish 2000 Guineas next time out. 

Nine furlong Class 2 handicap scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds come to the party having won four of the last five contests, whilst securing nine of the last available eighteen toteplacepot/each way positions. Six of the seven winners of the race have carried weights of 9-0 or less.  Three of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner) to date.

‘Jockey Club Stakes’ scheduled for 2.30: Four and five-year-olds have won the last eleven renewals between them with the older representatives having secured six victories, tempered by the fact that four-year-olds come to this particular gig on a four-timer.  Dandino was last year’s only four-year-old representative when winning at odds of 7/4.  Favourites have won six of the last eight renewals.

The 2000 Guineas due off at 3.10: Just two of the last thirteen renewals have been secured by favourites, though six market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Palace House Stakes scheduled for 3.45: Eight of the last fourteen winners of this sprint event have been boxed in the four lowest numbers, though people seem totally bamboozled in matters relating to the stall positions since the changes last year.  Four of the last eleven favourites have won, whilst seven of the fifteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Listed ‘Newmarket Stakes’ scheduled for 4.55: Only one favourite has obliged during the last decade, whilst seven of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

One mile three-year-old handicap event scheduled for 5.30: Six renewals have slipped by since a successful favourite was registered.  The previous three market leaders were also beaten given stats for the last decade.  At the start of the week, I can report that Mark Johnston has saddled sixteen three-year-old handicap winners in 2012 which puts MJ nine clear of his nearest rival (David Evans).



General stats: With a lack of potential meetings this week, this might be the time to home in Roger Varian who has enjoyed a great start to his career.  Roger boasts stats of 5/13 here on Town Moor, whilst other courses where the trainer did well during his first campaign include Bath (2/3), Haydock (8/23), Lingfield (Turf: 2/3--A/W: 5/16), Redcar (1/1), Salisbury (3/9) and Wolverhampton (4/11).



General stats: Peter Hedger is an unlikely name to consider here but his 4/10 stats (forty five points of level stake profits) demand plenty of respect, whilst Mahmood Al Zarooni’s 29% strike rake speaks for itself. 



General stats: It’s obviously easier to establish good strike rates from fewer runners but that said, it’s worth giving the horses saddled by Andrew Balding (2/4), David Simcock (2/6), Derek Shaw (2/7) and Robert Cowell (2/7) a second glance. 



General stats: John Quinn has saddled seven of his eighteen runners to winning effect at Hexham, whilst the Maurice Barnes LSP figure of one hundred and thirty nine points defies belief!



General stats: Rebecca Curtis raids plenty of courses to great effect and Uttoxeter is one of them, given the trainer’s 32% strike rate since Rebecca applied for her license. 


SUNDAY 06/05:


General stats: Mahmood Al Zarooni was the only trainer to saddle more than one winner at the two day meeting last year, having saddled a 4/1 winner on the Saturday before securing an 84/1 ‘different day’ double via a 16/1 chance on the 1000 Guineas card.

One and a half mile Class 2 handicap scheduled for 2.05: Seven of the last nine winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less, whilst four and five-year-olds have won the last seven renewals between them.  Four of the thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners).

Group 3 ‘Dahlia Stakes’ scheduled for 2.35: Sir Michael Stoute has farmed this race of late, winning the four of the last five contests with every horse during the period returned as favourite for its respective event.  Eight of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include four winners.

1000 Guineas scheduled for 3.15: Although nine of the last eleven winners of the 1000 Guineas have been returned in double figures, the biggest priced winner recorded in the last fourteen years was a 20/1 chance.  Eight of the fifteen market leaders have reached the frame during the study period (five winners). If you want to go further back to the last twenty five years (twenty six market leaders), the stats are as follows: nine winners—-four placed—-twelve unplaced. All three odds on favourites won during the extended study period, though the last of them prevailed back in 1996.

Class 2 six furlong handicap due to be contested at 3.50: Five-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals during which time all eight winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less.  Four-year-olds have won three of the last four contests.  Seven of the seventeen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners) during the study period.

Two-year-old maiden event scheduled for 4.25: Richard Hannon has won three of the last nine renewals of this juvenile event, whilst three of the trainer’s other six representatives finished in the money. Eight of the last eleven winners have scored at odds of 15/2 or less (including two favourites).  Nine of the thirteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the period.

3YO ‘Pretty Polly’ contest due to be contested at 5.00: All fourteen winners during the study period have scored at 8/1 or less (seven winning favourites), whilst ten of the sixteen market leaders finished in the frame.



Kevin Ryan saddled a 19/1 double on last year’s card when both winners were returned at odds of 7/2.



Mick Channon secured a 134/1 double at Salisbury twelve months ago when saddling winners at 14/1 and 8/1.

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5 replies
  1. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Thanks for taking the time and trouble to write KJ….hope you back lots of winners today!


    • Mal Boyle
      Mal Boyle says:

      Thanks for the plaudits guys but I can only report the facts–win, lose or draw.

      That’s the difference between ‘tips’ and trends in my book, it’s just a case of whether you believe in either method.

      Thanks to the thick end of fifty years being involved with the sport, I know which way my bread is (potentially) buttered!

      Thanks for remaining loyal to the column because win, lose or draw, I only try and uncover actual facts.

      Good luck….Mal.

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