Well I Declare: 21st to 25th August

Well I Declare, 21st to 25th August

Well I Declare: 21st to 25th August

Well I Declare: 21st to 25th August

We're all set for another action-packed week of racing, with York's Ebor meeting set to take centre stage from Wednesday onwards. Mal Boyle's got the inside line on this and all the week's other meetings starting with Tuesdays cards at Brighton, Warwick, Yarmouth and Worcester.

Northern based trainers will be hoping for better luck at one of their favourite meetings of the year, because although winners were saddled by Tim Easterby (33/1), Brian Ellison (25/1), Richard Fahey (8/1), Mick Easterby (6/1), David Barron (5/1) and Kevin Ryan (17/2 & 5/2*), only Kevin saddled two winners during the four days of sport twelve months ago.

Favourite punters were only rewarded in seven of the twenty-five events at the Ebor meeting last year, even though twenty-eight market leaders were returned via joint favourites.  Seven other ‘jollies’ finished in the frame, leaving fourteen market leaders finishing out with the washing.

Richard Hannon saddled four beaten favourites, with the two (Aidan O’Brien trained) odds on market leaders failing to oblige.  The average priced winner during the week was 13/2, with William Haggas, Sir Michael Stoute, Barry Hills and Richard Fahey also saddling two beaten favourites.

Aside from Kevin Ryan, only two other trainers visited the enclosure reserved for the winner on more than one occasion, with Mahmood Al Zarooni leading the way on the three winner mark (9/1-3/1*-11/4*--39/1 double on Saturday), whilst Michael Bell saddled 20/1 and 8/1 gold medallists.

The average priced winner via the eight juvenile events was 7/1 which was a little disappointing given the success of the first (and last) market leader in the two-year-old division.

No trainer saddled more than one juvenile winner, though five gold medallists were foaled in March, whilst Dutch Art was the sire of two of the victors.  Three of the juvenile market leaders finished in the frame, two of which hailed from Richard Hannon’s yard, his four beaten favourites all week hailing from his juvenile representatives.

For all the negativity reported, it’s worth noting that 16/25 winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

Toteplacepot returns last year:

Wednesday: £426.40 (average return of £428.76 during the last nine years)
Thursday: £841.20 (£338.78)
Friday: £780.60 (£695.74)
Saturday: £320.40 (£267.55 based on two-year figures), but first let's turn our attention to...


TUESDAY 21/8:

Brighton:

General stats: Nicole Nordblad (2/2) and Nathan Sweeney (1/1) protect their unbeaten records in the saddle at Brighton on Tuesday.

2.15: Three of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.

2.45: Seven of the last eight winners have carried weights of 9-3 or more, statistics which eliminate (at least) the bottom two horses in the handicap, possibly alongside course and distance winner Comadoir if the jockey successfully calls on his claim.  The previous eight renewals had all eluded market leaders before last year’s 15/8 favourite finally obliged.  That said, seven of the nine winners were returned at odds of 5/1 or less, though ‘only’ five of the 12 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions to date.

3.15: Four-year-olds have secured four of the last eight renewals with vintage representatives coming to the party on a hat trick on this occasion.  No favourite has obliged during the ten-year study period, though six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

3.45: Three renewals have slipped by since a favourite obliged, five of the previous six market leaders having scored.  Seven of the last nine favourites have finished in the frame.

4.15: The 2009 winner carried 9-7 to victory, whilst the other three gold medallists were burdened with 8-13 or less.  Two of the four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, though we still await the first successful favourite.

4.45: Four-year-olds have secured five of the nine available toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include all three winners (17/2-5/1-5/2). Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame to date via three renewals, statistics which include one (5/2) winner.

5.15: Favourites go into Brighton’s finale on a five timer having secured six of the last eight contests.

 

Warwick:

General stats: Darren Egan is already making a big name for himself as a jockey and with two winners from just five rides at Warwick, Darren will be doing his utmost to improve the ratio further still.  Ed McMahon boasts a 32% training record via eight winners, statistics which have produced a level stake profit of thirteen points.

 

Yarmouth:

General stats: Ed Walker (6/10) and George Baker (11/40) are (respectfully) two ‘lesser’ names to keep on the right side at the seaside venue.

 

Worcester:

General stats: Paul Nicholls boasts a 30% strike rate via twenty-two winners during the last five years.

 

WEDNESDAY 22/8:

York:

General stats: I don’t like repeating myself in the same column but Darren Egan boasts level stake profits of thirty-five points via a ratio of 3/10 on the Knavesmire. 

2.00: All three winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 whilst we still await the first successful market leader, albeit all three favourites have secured toteplacepot positions:

'Draw factor' (five and a half furlongs):

2011: 3-1-7-13 (19 ran-good to soft)
2010: 15-16-8 (15 ran-good)
2009: 18-13-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

2.30: Ten of the last twelve winners have been returned at odds of 7/2 or less (six winning favourites), whilst ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years.  Nine of the last ten winners were drawn five or higher.

3.05: Ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years (four winners).

3.40:  Four and five-year-olds have claimed eleven of the last fifteen renewals between them, with the four-year-olds leading their senior rivals 8-3 in the process.  Seven clear market leaders have won this event during the last fifteen years alongside a joint favourite.  Eleven of the sixteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

4.15: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame to date (one winner) whilst five-year-olds come into the race on a hat trick.

4.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals of this event, whilst securing seventeen of the thirty available toteplacepot positions.  Ten of the last twelve winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less.  Eight of the last fourteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which include four winners during the study period.

'Draw factor' (ten and a half furlongs):

2011: 4-15-7-9 (17 ran-good to soft)
2010: 9-12-10-15 (18 ran-good)
2009: 7-10-11-14 (17 ran-good to firm)
2007: 14-20-17-16 (18 ran-good)
2006: 14-3-1-18 (17 ran-good to soft)
2005: 4-18-13-12 (19 ran-good)
2004: 8-10-1 (11 ran-soft)
2003: 2-4-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
2002: 9-4-2 (9 ran-good)
2001: 16-7-2-17 (19 ran-good)
2000: 1-16-10-12 (17 ran-good)

 

Lingfield:

General stats: In case you missed the recent news, the Lingfield ‘carpet’ has been rolled up and will be ready to race on again in October.  There are not enough turf details available for me to give an accurate report.  I will keep a special eye on results to report over the coming weeks. 

 

Kempton:

General stats: For ‘new arrivals’ to this column, I am duty bound to offer Saeed Bin Suroor’s phenomenal 35% strike rate given that he has trained thirty-five winners at the venue during the last five years. 

 

Newton Abbot:

General stats: Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden eleven winners from just forty-five assignments which is a good ratio for one so young, especially given his LSP figure of thirty-eight points.  On the training front, Gary Brown (4/11) and David Bridgwater (3/8) are alternative options to the infamous pair of Henderson and Nicholls who generally rule the roost via sheer number of winners at Newton Abbot as you might suspect.  

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THURSDAY 23/8:

York:

General stats: Charlie Hills has saddled two winners from just nine opportunities since taking over the reigns towards the back-end of last year.  Marcus Tregoning has runners on Thursday’s card at the time of writing, the trainer boasting a 3/11 ratio in recent times which has produced an LSP figure of eight points. 

Premier Yearling Stakes scheduled for 2.00: Five of the last nine favourites have prevailed.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

2011: 19-11-2 (20 ran-good to soft)
2010: 15-10-5 (18 ran-good)
2009: 13-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)
2008: Race contested at Newmarket--not applicable
2007: 2-11-6 (20 ran-good)
2006: 11-9-16 (19 ran-soft)
2005: 10-18-15 (22 ran-good to firm)
2004: 12-17-19 (22 ran-good)
2003: 5-15-13 (22 ran-good)
2002: 17-18-21 (21 ran-good)
2001: 22-20-17(22 ran-good to firm)
2000: 4-10-3 (22 ran-good)
1999: 6-1-18 (21 ran-good to firm)
1998: 11-4-20 (22 ran-good)

 

Juvenile Lowther Stakes due to be contested at 2.30: Twelve of the last fifteen renewals have been won by horses starting at 15/2 or less, stats which includes six winning favourites.  Eight of the market leaders during the study period have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Class 2 all aged handicap over one mile scheduled for 3.05: Three and four-year-olds have claimed the last ten renewals between them, with the older horses leading 6-4 during the period.  Favourites have a fair record in this event, given the nature of the contest.  Ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years, statistics which include three winners.

Yorkshire Oaks scheduled for 3.40: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals, statistics which include four of the last six contests.  Eight favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, though just two of the other seven market leaders secured additional toteplacepot positions.

Galtres Stakes scheduled for 4.15: Three-year-olds have claimed ten of the last fourteen renewals of this event, statistics which include eight of the last eleven. Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  Eleven of the seventeen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via the last fourteen renewals.

Seven furlong handicap for fillies scheduled for 4.50: David Barron’s Shesastar won the inaugural race as the 5/1 favourite twelve months ago.  The defending champion was David’s only potential runner in the race earlier in the week.  Richard Fahey saddled the second and third horses last year and Honeymead was Richard’s only option at the time of writing.

 

Bath:

General stats: Marcus Tregoning boasts a ratio of 10/35 at Bath during the last five years which is backed up by a (minimal) level stake profit, black figures nonetheless. 

 

Folkestone:

General stats: Frankie Dettori rides this track as well as any other jockey as his recent 6/20 statistics at the course confirms.  Sir Michael Stoute’s 39% record at Folkestone suggests that the trainer will be appealing against the imminent closure of Kent’s only racecourse. 

 

Cartmel:

General stats: Floral Patches (scheduled to contest the mares maiden hurdle event which is set for 7.30) is Brian Ellison’s only potential runner on the card, the trainer having saddled four of his last seven runners at the venue to winning effect. 

 

Ffos Las:

General stats: Nicky Henderson’s 40% record is a phenomenal ratio given his twenty winners at the venue which only opened its doors to the public three years ago.  Other trainers to have made it pay in recent times are Anthony Honeyball (5/11) and Dr Richard Newland (4/9).  All three trainers held options for the meeting earlier in the week. 

 

FRIDAY 24/8:

York:

General stats: If John Dunlop’s fortunes are ever going to change this year it is likely to be here at York with the trainer still showing an impressive 28% strike rate via ten winners, gold medallists which have produced forty-nine points of level profit stakes. 

Class 2 mile and a half handicap scheduled for 2.00: Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston have both saddled two winners during the last five years, whilst the last six gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 8-12.  One clear and one joint favourite have won via nine renewals during the last decade, with four winners scoring at odds ranging between 33/1 and 50/1.  That said, four of the last six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Group 2 ‘Gimcrack Stakes’ scheduled for 2.30: Odooj was the only William Haggas declaration at the five-day stage, the trainer having saddled two of the last six winners of the race.  It’s worth noting that William was not represented on one occasion during the period, whilst the trainer saddled the 16/1 runner-up in 2009.  Only one favourite has obliged during the last nine years, albeit six of the last winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less. Seven of the eleven market leaders finished in the frame during the last decade.

Strensall Stakes scheduled for 3.05: Saeed Bin Suroor has won three of the last five renewals, whilst four of the last eight favourites have scored.  The biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 8/1 since the turn of the Millennium.

Nunthorpe Stakes due to be contested at 3.40: Five favourites landed the ‘Nunthorpe’ in successive seasons between 1999 and 2003, though the other ten market leaders failed to add to the record during the study period.  Just three of those beaten favourites managed to snare additional toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

2011: 11-15-7 (15 ran-good to soft)
2010: 11-13-2 (12 ran-good to firm)
2009: 2-11-9 (16 ran-good to firm)
2008: Race run at Newmarket--not applicable
2007: 13-7-16 (16 ran-good)
2006: 6-16-2 (14 ran-soft)
2005: 8-12-13 (16 ran-good to firm)
2004: 5-11-15 (12 ran-soft)
2003: 2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)
2002: 15-16-11 (17 ran-good to firm)
2001: 4-8-3 (10 ran-good)
2000: 1-14-10 (13 ran-good)
1999: 13-1-3 (16 ran-good)
1998: 2-4-8 (17 ran-firm)

‘Convivial Maiden’ over seven furlongs due to be contested at 4.15: One of the three favourites (via two renewals) has secured a toteplacepot position (no winners) in a race which has been revamped in recent years.

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

2011: 6-4-8 (17 ran-good to soft)
2010: 4-12-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

Six furlong Nursery contest scheduled for 4.50: Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less, whilst one clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored via ten renewals of this two-year-old handicap.  Four of the last five winners have emerged from stalls ten, eleven and twelve.

 

Goodwood:

General stats: Elaine Burke has sneaked an entry into Goodwood’s meeting which will escape many people, the trainer having scored with her only runner at the West Sussex venue to date.  Duke Of Aricabeau is scheduled to contest the 7.50 three-year-old Class 5 handicap in an attempt to add to Elaine’s previous 20/1 gold medallist at the track. 

 

Hamilton:

General stats: Amy Ryan’s 26% strike rate (via eleven winners) is even more impressive when you take the LSP reading of fifty-two points into account!

 

Newcastle:

General stats: I have talked about Sir Palomides before now and this is the only possible runner for William Haggas at Newcastle, the trainer boasting recent stats of 38% at Gosforth Park.  The Mr Greeley colt might be a winner at rewarding odds if given the green light by the trainer. 

 

Newmarket:

General stats: The best combined stats (strike rate and level stake profits) going into this week at Newmarket (relating to potentially represented trainers) belong to Mahmood Al Zarooni who boasts respective figures of nineteen and sixty-five. 

 

Ffos Las:

General stats: This is a mixed meeting which is to be applauded though that said, the card complicates the workload.  On the flat front, William Haggas boasts 5/12 figures, whereas under the NH banner, Anthony Honeyball (5/11) and Nicky Henderson (20/50) lead the way relating to potentially represented trainers on Friday. 

 

SATURDAY 25/8:

York:

General stats: Ron Harris has enjoyed a year to remember and his 25% strike rate here at York is testament to the trainer’s ability.  Only four winners can be reported though that said, the LSP figure of forty-four points catches the eye in no uncertain terms. 

Listed City of York Stakes scheduled for 2.00: Five favourites have won via the last fourteen renewals, whilst ten market leaders have reached the frame in the process.

‘Melrose’ 3YO Handicap scheduled for 2.30: Three of the ten renewals since the turn of the Millennium have been won by market leaders.

Group 2 Lonsdale event due to be contested at 3.05: The last ten winners have been returned at odds of 7/1 or less, whilst five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last fourteen contests.

Ebor Handicap scheduled for 3.40: The last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4. Two favourites have won via the last fourteen renewals with eight market leaders securing toteplacepot positions in the process.  Eight of the last ten winners have been drawn fourteen or higher, with only one winner drawn in single figures during the study period.

Roses Stakes scheduled for 4.15:  Three favourites have won via the last fourteen renewals, whilst eleven of the other twelve market leaders failed to reach the frame.

 

Goodwood:

General stats: Luca Cumani and Sir Henry Cecil both boast 21% strike rates which is commendable, whilst Roger Charlton’s ratio of 11/55 makes for decent reading, especially given the level stake profit of twenty-four points.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: As the ‘July season’ heads towards its end at Newmarket, Clifford Lines will be hoping to improve his 3/8 tally via Proud Chieftain who potentially represents the trainer in the scheduled 4.35 event.  

 

Redcar:

General stats: Ian Williams has his team in fine form (under both codes of the sport) at the time of writing and Ian’s 4/9 record at the Cleveland venue makes for impressive reading. 

 

Windsor:

General stats: Robert Eddery is chalking up good figures at the alternative royal venue via a 4/12 ratio, whilst other ‘unsung’ heroes to consider are Sheena West (3/11) and Tom Tate (2/3).

 

Cartmel:

General stats: I should have mentioned Harriet Graham regarding Cartmel’s Thursday stats, as the trainer held five entries over the course of the two days at the time of writing, Harriet boasting 6/20 figures during the last five years.

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