Well, I Declare! 22/05/12

Well I Declare, 22nd May 2012

Well, I Declare! 22/05/12

Well, I Declare! 22/05/12

Ahead of yet another busy week of racing, Mal Boyle's back with us with his insights on the week's forthcoming fixtures.

He's got all the pertinent stats and details of all the meetings, be they jumps, flat or all-weather: there's always an angle to pursue!

TUESDAY 22/05:

General stats: Neil Callan has six booked rides at Brighton where the jockey boasts a 23% strike rate during which time, Neil had produced an LSP figure of over twenty-one points. Lydia Pearce has saddled three of her seven runners to winning effect, whilst David Simcock is another trainer whose runners should be treated with plenty of respect.  

2.00: Four-year-olds have won the only two renewals (of three in total) in which the vintage was represented, whilst two of the three favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner).

2.30: Three-year-olds had won this race since the old king died until a five-year-old reared its ugly head by upsetting the apple-cart twelve months ago, whilst four of the last eleven favourites have scored (including three of the last five market leaders), The biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at just 6/1.

3.30: Four of the last six favourites have won this event whilst the other gold medallists were returned at 7/1 and 9/2.

4.30: Five-year-olds have won three of the last five contests whilst three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame via six renewals to date (one winner--last year)

General stats: Art News (5.15) is an outsider to consider given Gary Moore’s 3/6 ratio at Nottingham in recent years.  The Dansili gelding is Gary’s only runner at the track today where Saeed Bin Suroor usually rules the roost.

General stats: Folk Tune (6/15) is John Quinn’s only runner on the Towcester card, the trainer having saddled three of his five runners at the course to winning effect during the last five years.

General stats: James Fanshawe heads the list of represented trainers at Kempton today via a 21% strike rate which is backed up by an LSP figure of nearly thirty-eight points.  James’ Haafhd newcomer Wijaya (5.15) is the only stable representative on today’s card.


General stats: Ralph Beckett’s last twenty runners have secured three gold and four silver medals between them and boasting a 27% strike rate here at Chepstow, Ralph’s two runners on the card are worth noting.

General stats: With an LSP figure in excess of fifty points to boast at Sedgefield, Lucy Alexander is building her reputation as a fine addition to the ranks of professional riders. Lucy has four booked rides on the card in the hope on improving her decent 7/26 strike rate at the venue.

General stats: Rachael Green is tearing up the rule book in the best possible way as she continues to ride with tremendous purpose and ambition.  Rachael has ridden nine winners here at Worcester via just sixteen opportunities (56% strike rate)! Rachael has produced an LSP figure of nearly eighty points in the process.

Hunter Chase event scheduled for 5.50: All three favourites have prevailed to date.

Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 6.20: Market leaders have won three of the last six contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1.

Bumper event scheduled for 7.20: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals during which time, just two favourites have scored.  Four winners were returned at odds ranging between 12/1 and 20/1.

NH Novice hurdle contest due to be contested at 7.50: Five favourites have obliged during the last decade, whilst five-year-olds have secured three of the last six renewals.

Class 5 two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 8.20: The market leaders have obliged during the last decade whilst six-year-olds have secured four of the last six renewals.

General stats: Three of Roger Charlton’s last five runners had won at the time of writing and the trainer has a good record at a venue which on this occasion stages a mixed (Turf & A/W) meeting.

General stats: La Estrella (3.50) is Don Cantillon’s only runner all week at a track where the trainer boasts a 43% strike rate via a ratio of 12/28.


General stats: Mahmood Al Zarooni boasts a ratio of 10/35 (29% strike rate), whilst producing seven points of level stake profits in the process.  The relevant blue colours should be noted during the three-day meeting which starts on Thursday.  

Six furlong juvenile event scheduled for 2.00: Richard Hannon has won seven of the last twelve renewals of this juvenile event, stats which include the last four gold medallists! Ten of the last twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners).  The last eight winners have scored at odds ranging between 4/9 and 7/1.

Nine furlong Class 4 handicap due to be contested at 2.35: Ten of the last thirteen winners have carried 9-0 or less, whilst six of the last fourteen favourites have finished in the frame (two winners).

Ten furlong Listed event for fillies scheduled for 3.45: Three of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed whilst eight market leaders finished in the frame during the study period.

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Two mile handicap scheduled for 4.20: Nine of the last eleven gold medallists having carried 9-1 or less. Just three of the twelve favourites have made the frame during the study period (one winner).  Four of the last eight winners have scored at 25/1, 22/1, 20/1 and 16/1.

General stats: Another three-day meeting which starts ‘today’ and trainers to keep on the right side include Roger Varian (35% strike rate) William Haggas (33%), William Jarvis and Alistair Whillans who boast 30% figures apiece.  This quartet of handlers all held entries on Thursday at the time of writing.  

General stats: The combined ratios of Richard Price stand close inspection at Salisbury, with Richard offering a strike rate of 31% (5/16) having produced an LSP figure of twenty-three points.  Richard Hannon saddled a 111/1 treble at last week’s Salisbury meeting via eight runners.  

General stats: Ryan Clark might only have eight winners to his name this season at the time of writing, though Ryan has ridden three of his six mounts here at Sandown to winning effect.  Sir Mark Prescott saddled a winner at Baden Baden on the quiet last week and this is the time of year when SMP moves into top gear.  Mark’s 36% strike rate at Sandown in recent years is worth a mention in dispatches.

Juvenile maiden for fillies over five furlongs scheduled for 6.00: Five favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium though only three of the other eight market leaders have additionally secured toteplacepot positions. Richard Hannon has saddled three of the last nine winners, with the trainer holding four options at the time of writing.

One and three-quarter mile 3YO handicap scheduled for 6.30: All seven winners have carried 8-9 or more, whilst Mark Johnston was responsible for three of the twelve penultimate entry stage runners, having been the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this contest thus far. Six of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (one winner--last year).

One and a quarter-mile 3YO handicap scheduled for 7.35: Seven of the last nine winners have carried weights of nine stones or more during which time, winning favourites have been conspicuous only by their absence.

Class 5 handicap for fillies over nine furlongs scheduled for 8.40: Three-year-olds have won all six renewals of this toteplacepot finale, whilst five of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

General stats: For all that we have emerging young jockeys on the threshold of decent careers, it defies belief that Tony McCoy and Richard Johnson continue to dominate the sport in terms of the sheer number of winners ridden.  ‘Dickie’ just holds the strike rate edge here at Wetherby having boasted a 46% figure in the last five years which sits two spots above Tony’s ratio.

FRIDAY 25/05:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott heads Friday’s list of trainers (22% strike rate) whilst David C Griffiths is the ‘new kid on the block’ to note at Catterick as two of his six runners have scored at the venue thus far.

General stats: Ahtoug (4.20) was Mahmood Al Zarooni’s only runner at Goodwood on Friday at the time of writing, with seven entries in total for the meeting at a track where the trainer’s current strike rate stands at 29% via a 10/29 ratio.  

General stats: Roger Varian (35%) and William Haggas (33%) head the list of trainer’s for the middle day of Haydock’s three day meeting.

Class 5 3YO handicap scheduled for 2.20: Six of the nine toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying weights of 9-2 or less (stats include two winners at 14/1 & 9/4), whilst the three favourites thus far have secured two gold and one bronze medal.

Juvenile event for fillies scheduled for 2.55: Three of the five favourites to date (via four renewals--two winners) have secured toteplacepot positions.

Class 4 one mile handicap scheduled for 4.05: The inaugural market leader duly obliged before both favourites finished down the field in the two divisions staged last year.

Mixed vintage maiden event scheduled for 4.40: Three-year-olds come to the gig on a five-timer which is par for the course in these mixed vintage events.  All five market leaders have prevailed thus far!

General stats: Colin Teague and Richard Guest lead the way via an aggregate LSP reading of over one hundred and eighty points, whilst Bryan Smart often saddled winners at the Edinburgh venue.  

General stats: Alan McCabe (3/13) and Ralph Beckett (2/6) don’t send too many horses to the east coast venue but both trainers were represented on Friday at the five-day stage.

General stats: Robert Thornton and Timmy Murphy rarely leave Towcester ‘empty handed’, whilst the strike rates of trainers John Quinn (60%) and David Arbuthnot (40%) are impressive to say the least.


General stats: Three of the last eight runners saddled by William Haggas had won at the time of writing with two others additionally reaching the frame.  Willie boasts a 32% strike rate here on the Roodee via 8/25 figures.

General stats: Robert Cowell completes the Goodwood ‘jigsaw’ this week having saddled two of his nine runners to winning effect at the beautiful venue thus far. Robert held two just entries this week at the venue.

Listed ‘Festival Stakes’ scheduled for 2.45: Three favourites have scored via nine renewals during the last decade.  Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests.

Mile and a half Class 2 handicap due to be contested at 3.20: Four-year-olds have won the last three (of four) renewals, vintage representatives having secured a 1-2-3 on each occasion! We still await the first successful favourite.

Class 4 juvenile maiden event over six furlongs scheduled for 3.55: Richard Hannon has secured the last four contests, with the trainer responsible for 4/22 entries at the five-day stage. The biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1 via nine renewals during the last decade.

Twelve furlong Listed event scheduled for 4.25: Two favourites have obliged via five renewals, the last two of which were secured by Saeed Bin Suroor who held three options for this year’s event at the penultimate entry stage.

Class 4 six furlong handicap scheduled for 5.00: Just one of the three market leaders has finished in the frame thus far (no winners).

Seven furlong finale for fillies scheduled for 5.35: The last three winners have scored at 33/1-16/1-12/1.  Just two winning favourites have been recorded via the last nine renewals, with a 100/1 chance prevailing back in 2004 when representing none other than Richard Hannon who has saddled seventy-five winners at Goodwood during the last five years.  In terms of turf tracks, Richard has only saddled more winners (eighty) at Windsor than he has achieved at the West Sussex venue.

General stats: David Elsworth is another trainer (refer back to Thursday/Friday general stats) to add into the mix via his 28% strike rate at Haydock.

Class 3YO handicap scheduled for 2.00: Eight of the nine toteplacepot positions to date were secured by horses carrying weights of 8-11 of more, stats which includes all three (7/1-9/2-2/1) winners.

One mile ‘Silver Bowl’ event: Four favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium with the last 11 winners having scored at 15/2 or less, which is a remarkable stat given the competitive nature of this contest.

Group 2 Temple Stakes over five favourites scheduled for 3.00: Four of the last ten renewals have been secured by favourites.

Class 4 six furlong handicap scheduled for 3.30: All four winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst all three market leaders had obliged before last year‘s favourite secured the silver medal.

Class 3 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 4.40: Last year’s successful 7/4 favourite was the first market leader to oblige at the sixth attempt.

Class 4 one mile handicap scheduled for 5.15: Two favourites have obliged during the last decade during which time, four-year-olds lead with five-year-olds 4-3. These two vintages have secured the last available nine win and place positions as well as eighteen of the twenty-nine opportunities during the decade.

General stats: I rarely home in on amateur riders but Sarah Brotherton’s 4/12 ratio at Newbury demands attention.  Roger Charlton’s LSP reading of eighty-eight points at Newbury during the last five years raises an eyebrow or three.  

General stats: John Hills (3/9), Sylvester Kirk (3/10) and Marcus Tregoning (3/11) do not raid the Knavesmire consistently, though all three trainers were potentially represented at York on Saturday.

General stats: Alan Jarvis (3/9) and Mahmood Al Zarooni (4/12) both boast 33% strike rates at another mixed (Turf & A/W) meeting at Linfgfield this week.


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