...are right here in Mal Boyle's "Well I Declare" feature.

Well I Declare 23rd November 2011

Our man with all the vital stats & info, Mal Boyle, is back again with all the declarations of note for the next 5 days.

Let's cut straight to the chase (forgive the pun!) and see what he's uncovered for us this week.


WEDNESDAY 23rd November: 

All this week's notable declarations...

All this week's notable declarations...

Fontwell:

 General stats: Andy Turnell is 3/13 with his runners at Fontwell in recent seasons, boasting a level stake profit of fourteen points for good measure.  Andy’s only runner today is Sablazo in the 1.15 event.


Kempton:

General stats: Favourites in the non handicap sector boast a 39% strike rate via 969 races during the last five years at Kempton. 2YO: 42%--3YO: 40%--Older horses: 35%.

5.35: Eight of the nine horses to secure toteplacepot positions have carried weights of 8-11 or more, stats which include all three winners.  The winners all carried 9-4 or more.

6.35: The last four winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-2 whilst all six favourites (via five renewals) have been beaten thus far.  Just two of the six market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Elaine Burke has two runners on the card, attempting to improve a 2/7 strike rate which has yielded an LSP of over fifty two points to date.

1.05: We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals.

1.40: The last six winners have scored at odds of 7/2 or less, stats which include four winning favourites.

2.10: This is the second division of the 1.40 event whereby the same stats apply.

2.45: Three of the five winners were returned at odds of 16/1-16/1-14/1, whilst we still await the first winning favourite.  The last three market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions however.

 

Wetherby:

General stats: Jason Maguire has won on six of his fifteen mounts since his comeback and with three bookings on today’s card, his recent strike rate suggests he will ride at least one winner.

1.30: Four-year-olds have won seven of the 11 renewals to date.  Ten of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners) whilst ten gold medallists started at odds of 8/1 or less. That said, the three shortest priced (odds on) favourites were beaten, albeit whilst finishing in the frame.

2.00: Thirteen of the fifteen available toteplacepot positions were claimed by horses carrying 11-0 or more, stats which include all six winners.

3.05: The four favourites have snared two gold medals, one silver and one bronze to date.

3.35: Five-year-olds lead four-year-olds 6-3 via the last ten contests.

 

THURSDAY 24th November:

Kempton:

General stats: Finalist (scheduled to contest the 6.40 event) is Dean Ivory’s only potential runner on the card.  Dean had saddled two of his last five horses to winning effect (12/1 & 6/1) at the time of writing and the trainer boasts an LSP of over seventy points at this venue.

 

Newbury:

General stats: As the three day Hennessy meeting starts, is as well to focus on the fact that just five trainers have saddled ‘double figures’ in terms of the number winners at Newbury during the last five years.  Strikes rates in brackets: 51 Nicky Henderson (23%)--48 Paul Nicholls (26%)--23 Philip Hobbs (15%)--18 Alan King (10%)--11 Tom George (19%).

Twenty one furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.30: We still await the first successful favourite via six renewals, though the last five winners have scored at odds of 9/1 or less.

Novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.35: Five and six years olds have shared the last five (of six) renewals of this event, notwithstanding thirteen of a total of nineteen available toteplacepot positions.  All six winners have carried weights of 10-12 or more to date.

Three mile novice chase scheduled for 2.10: I must draw attention to the fact that the last seven favourites have all been beaten at odds of 4/9-4/7-8/11-8/11-5/4--5/4-13/8.  Five of the last eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Paul Nicholls has won five of the eleven renewals to date and the trainer held two strong entries earlier in the week.

Two mile six handicap chase scheduled for 2.45: The last seven winners of this event have carried weights of 11-5 or more and we have up to 12 possible ‘qualifiers’ to assess this year in a currently 24- strong line up.  Six of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners).

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 3.20: Philip Hobbs has trained four of the six winners thus far, whilst five of the six winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less.   Tony Star was the only potential Philip Hobbs raider at the weekend.  Three of the seven market leaders (three winners) have secured toteplacepot positions this far.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.50: Four-year-olds have won all eight renewals, though only the last two contests have been open for other vintage representatives.

 

Taunton:

General stats: Paul Nicholls has saddled more than three times the number winners (56) than the next three trainers in the list have managed between them at Taunton in recent times, offering a 36% strike rate for good measure.

 

Uttoxeter:

General stats: Cresswell Crusader (scheduled to contest the 1.45 event) in Anthony Honeyball’s only intended runner on the card with the trainer boasting 3/9 figures at Uttoxeter thus far.  Rain would be welcomed by connections.

Class 4 two mile novice hurdle scheduled for 12.20: Five-year-olds have won five of the last six contests with vintage representatives coming to this year’s party on a four-timer.

Three mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.25: Six-year-olds have claimed four of the six contests, whilst five winners were returned at odds of 5/1 or less (two winning favourites).

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FRIDAY 25th November:

Doncaster:

General stats: Tony Carroll held three options for Friday at ‘Donny’ where the trainer has saddled five winners from just fourteen runners of late, boasting an LSP figure of 43 points.

 

Musselburgh:

General stats: Only three trainers have saddled ten or more winners at Musselburgh in the last five years: 14 Ferdy Murphy--11 Lucinda Russel--10 Jim Goldie.  Jim boasts the best LSP figure of the trio (12 points).

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 12.10: All seven winners have carried weights of 10-10 or more.

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.40: Just one favourite has obliged in this contest via six renewals which is a poor ratio given the type of event.

Class 5 maiden hurdle event scheduled for 1.50: Four-year-olds have secured four of the seven renewals thus far.

Class 4 two mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.25: Six and seven-year-olds have won all seven contests thus far (6YO lead 4-3).

Bumper event scheduled for 3.30: Favourites have won six of the seven renewals to date, the same stats that four-year-olds boast in the contest.

 

Newbury:

General stats: Swincombe Flame (12.30) should be worth keeping on the right side with trainer Nick Mitchell boasting decent figures at the track.  Oliver Sherwood had a couple of potential runners in the field in the same contest which also attract the eye.

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 1.00: Paul Nicholls has saddled just six runners in the last nine renewals of this novice hurdle event, and three of the Ditcheat raiders have snared gold, though his 1/4 favourite could only snared the silver medal twelve months ago.  Ranjaan was Paul’s only potential runner at the four-day stage.  Seven favourites have won during the last fourteen years, whilst twelve of the last fourteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.  Ten of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Two and a half mile novice chase scheduled for 1.35: Nicky Henderson has secured three of the last ten renewals and the bang in form trainer held two options at the penultimate stage.

Four favourites have won during the last fourteen years, whilst the last thirteen winners have scored at 10/1 or less.  Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Two and a quarter mile novice chase event scheduled for 2.10: Paul Nicholls (three) and Alan King (two) have won five of the last six renewals between them with both trainers ‘double handed’ at the penultimate stage.  Three favourites has won to date via eight renewals, whilst the biggest priced gold medallist thus far was returned at 7/1.  Five of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame.

‘Pertempts’ three mile qualifier scheduled for 2.45: Five of the six favourites to date secured toteplacepot positions (four winners), with market leaders coming to this year’s gig on a four-timer.

‘Jim Joel Trophy’ scheduled for 3.15: Seven-year-olds have won six of the last thirteen contests.  Paul Nicholls (three) and Nicky Henderson (two) have secured five of the last seven contests between them.  Four of the last 10 favourites have won, whilst six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period.  Thirteen of the last fourteen winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Class 3 Maiden Hurdle scheduled for 3.50: Four-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals of the toteplacepot finale with local trainer Nicky Henderson coming into the contest on a hat trick this time around, having secured three of the last ten renewals.  Six of the ten favourites have won to date, the other four starting prices being returned at 50/1-16/1-8/1-11/2.  Seven of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Graham Gibbons had three booked rides over the two day meeting at the time of writing which makes for interesting reading, given Graham’s astounding LSP figure of 121 points at the venue!

 

SATURDAY 26th November:

Bangor:

General stats: Only three trainers have saddled more than thirteen winners at Bangor in recent times (Strike rate in brackets): 51 Donald McCain (16%)--28 Jonjo O’Neill (15%)--24 Alan King (23%).

 

Newbury:

General stats: The Hales colours have been worn to winning effect four times via just nine runners at Newbury of late.  Neptune Collonges is his only potential runner on the card and if you think an outsider might oblige in the ‘Hennessy‘, the ‘top weight’ (subject to riders’ claim) is worth consideration, given that he was just a 14/1 chance in the race when brought down twelve months ago.

Amateur riders’ handicap chase event scheduled for 12.20: All four winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less, whilst three of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners).

Class 3 novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.55: Paul Nicholls has saddled three winners in the last eight years and with the trainer continually securing the headlines on Saturdays for a number of reasons, Prospect Wells (his only option for this event) can go close.  Favourites have won five of the last eight contests, whilst twelve of the fifteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions (eight winners).

‘Fulke Walwyn’ event scheduled for 1.30: The last nine winners have carried weights of 10-11, whilst just one of the twelve favourites has won this contest to date, with five market leaders having finished in the frame.

‘Gerry Fielden’ event scheduled for 2.05: Seven of the last eight winners have carried weights of 10-13 or less, whilst eight of the last thirteen favourites have reached the frame (four winners).

Grade 2 ‘Long Distance Hurdle’ scheduled for 2.35: BIG BUCKS comes into the race on a hat trick, whilst DUC DE REIGNIER ‘boasts’ a colour of each medal in the contest during the last three years.  Nine of the last 12 favourites have won this World Hurdle ‘trial’, whilst 12 of the last 14 winners were returned at 6/1 or less.  12 of the last 14 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Hennessy Gold Cup scheduled for 3.10:  Six and seven-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals of the Hennessy Gold Cup between them, with seven-year-olds leading 4-3 in recent times.  Paul Nicholls has saddled the of the last eight winners, whilst securing an additional four toteplacepot position in the process.  Four favourites have won the Hennessy Gold Cup in the last 14 years, though just two of the other 10 market leaders has additionally secured a toteplacepot position.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: There will be more inferior outsiders on the card than Karen McLintock’s raider Bygones Of Brid in the ‘Fighting Fifth’ event.  Karen has saddled all three hurdle runners at Newcastle to winning effect thus far and it’s worth recalling that her inmate finished second in the Scottish Champion Hurdle last time out. Two 25/1 winners have emerged in the race in the last eight years.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 1.45: Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals during which time, the biggest priced gold medallists was returned at 8/1.

‘Fighting Fifth’ scheduled for 2.20: Five-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals, though only the rank outsider Stormy Weather was set to represent the vintage this time around.

‘Rehearsal Chase’ scheduled for 3.30: Only one of the last six renewals was secured by a market leader.

 

Towcester: 

General stats: Jonjo O’Neill has found the time to potentially declare five runners at the track on Saturday.  Well clear in terms of the number of winners he has saddled at Towcester (29) over his fellow trainers, Jonjo boasts an LSP figure of 32 points for good measure.

Mares novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.00: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion.

Novice hurdle qualifier scheduled for 1.35: Five-year-olds have dominated this race as well of late, securing six of the last eight contests.

Three mile handicap hurdle contest scheduled for 2.45: Just one market leader has obliged via the last seven renewals.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.50: We still await the first winning favourite via five contests, with four-year-olds having secured the last four contests.

 

Wolverhampton: 

General stats: Remember those Graham Gibbons stats I offered for Friday’s meeting, as well as recalling the Keith Dalgleish and Jeremy Noseda positive calls in recent weeks from a training perspective.

 

SUNDAY 27th November:

Carlisle:

General stats: Tom Tate has won with two of the four runners he has saddled at Carlisle in recent years, with Kudu Country (scheduled to contest the 1.20 event) being his only entry on the card at the time of writing. 

Novice hurdle qualifier scheduled for 12.50: Five-year-olds have secured four of the seven renewals to date.  Only two favourites have obliged, with the other five gold medallists returned at odds ranging between 12/1 and 40/1.

Two mile and one furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.00: Five of the last six winners carried weights of 10-11 or less.

Amateur riders’ event scheduled for 3.30: Six of the last seven winners have carried a maximum weight of 10-12.

 

Leicester:

General stats: ‘Local’ trainer Anabel Murphy held four options on the card earlier in the week, having saddled two of her three runners at Leicester to winning effect thus far. 

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.40: Favourites have won four of the last eight contests, whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at 11/2 during the study period.  Five-year-olds have won five renewals since the turn of the Millennium.

 

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