Well, I Declare! 24/4/12

Well I Declare, 24th April 2012

Well, I Declare! 24/4/12

Well, I Declare! 24/4/12

There's another very busy week ahead of us and picking a winner can often be like treading through a minefield. Thankfully, we have an expert to guide us in the form of Malcolm Boyle, who has kindly gone through all the upcoming racecards to point us in the right direction.

TUESDAY 24/04:

Towcester:

General stats:  Robert Thornton boasts an LSP figure of seven points via an impressive 28% strike rate at Towcester.  In the training ranks, Alan King and Nicky Henderson rule the roost, though ‘new kids on the block’ James Turner and Nick Kent are worth keeping on the right side. 

This is a new meeting at Towcester whereby no trends are in place.

 

Southwell:

General stats:  This is the replacement venue for the Newcastle’s abandoned meeting which was called off last week because of a waterlogged track.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Mark Johnston has saddled an incredible 92 winners at the track during the last five years whilst a trainer at the other end of experience has started well enough, given Peter Charalambous has saddled four of his twelve runners at Dunstall Park to winning effect.

This is another new meeting whereby you might want to take a look at the Irish work I offer every week (click here for further details).  It’s Punchestown Festival time and anything would be an improvement on Tuesday’s fayre this side of the Irish Sea. 

 

WEDNESDAY 25/04:

Catterick:

General stats: Mick Channon has his busy yard in good order as is usually the case at the start of the season and his 22% strike rate at Catterick is worth bearing in mind as you sift through the declarations.

 

Epsom:

General stats: Five trainers have saddled two winners at this meeting since the track re-opened in 2009 after the new stand was erected. ‘Team Hills’, Chris Wall, Andrew Balding, Richard Hannon and John Gosden being the trainers in question.  Seven of the eight races during the study period were secured by favourites (38.9%).

2.15: Four-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals whilst four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame (two winners) to date.

2.50: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals of the ’Great Met’, whilst six of the last 12 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners).

3.20: Ten of the last fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (eight winners).

3.55: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen renewals of this Class 2 event whilst the last five gold medallists have carried weights of 9-3 or more.  Ten of the last sixteen market leaders have finished in the frame (six winners).

4.30: Twelve of the last thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (seven winners).

5.00: Five of the six winners to date have carried weights of 9-1 or more to victory, whilst five of the six market leaders have finished in the frame (four winners) to date.

 

Hereford:

General stats:  Nicky Henderson generally rules the roost at Hereford though other handlers worth keeping on the right side include Gary Moore (5/16), Warren Greatrex (4/13) and Alastair Lauderdale (3/8).

 

Perth:

General stats: General stats:  Aidan Coleman has ridden five winners at Perth via just twelve rides, whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies has long since ruled the roost in the trainer sector at the venue.  That said, Gordon Elliott also raids this track to good effect these days. 

 

Kempton:

General stats: Twice Red is Mandy Rowland’s only runner all week at the time of writing whereby her Kempton stats of 7/33 are worth a second glance, especially as Mandy has saddled two of her three winners this month to winning effect. 

 

THURSDAY 26/04:

Beverley:

General stats:  Frankie Dettori was due to ride at Beverley on Thursday, the jockey having ridden four winners from just seven opportunities in the last five years.  Willie Haggas saddled four winners during an eight runner spell towards the end of last week and boasting a 33% strike rate here via 5/15 figures, Willie’s horses should be kept on the right side if inmates receive the green light. 

Ten furlong ’Rapid Lad’ handicap scheduled for 2.40:  Four-year-olds have secured three of the last four renewals, whilst six of the seven winners have carried a maximum weight of nine stones.

Class 4 mile and a half handicap event scheduled for 3.10: All four favourites have finished out of the frame.

Seven and a half furlong Class 3 handicap scheduled for 3.45: Mark Johnston was responsible for four of the sixteen penultimate stage entries at the weekend, having secured four of the last seven contests.  Six favourites have prevailed during the last decade.

Class 5 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 4.20: Favourites of one description or another have secured four of the last five renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last decade was an 8/1 chance.

Eight and a half furlong maiden event scheduled for 4.55: Five of the last eight contests have been secured by favourites, whilst three-year-olds have won every renewal during the last decade.

 

Brighton:

General stats:  Ryan Moore boasts a 27% strike rate at Brighton via seventeen winners, whilst trainer Stuart Williams (11/45 stats alongside an LSP figure of nine points) held two options at the meeting earlier in the week. 

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There is no history attached to the Brighton meeting.

 

Perth:

General stats:  Aidan Coleman has ridden five winners at Perth via just twelve rides, whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies has long since ruled the roost in the trainer sector at the venue.  That said, Gordon Elliott also raids this track to good effect these days. 

Three and a quarter-mile Hunter Chase (Perthshire Challenge Cup) event scheduled for 4.05: Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame (one winner).

Class three two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.40: Venetia Williams was not represented in the race twelve months ago have saddled three successive winners between 2008 and 2010.

 

Uttoxeter:

General stats:  Simon Earle has won with three of the eight runners he has saddled at Uttoxeter. 

There is no history attached to the Uttoxeter meeting.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Don Cantillon (6/21) and John Butler (4/11) are two underrated trainers whose horses should come under consideration. 

 

FRIDAY 27/04:

Doncaster:

General stats: Roger Varian (5/11), Sir Henry Cecil (10/35) and Mark Buckley (3/6) all held entries at the five-day stage. 

Only two races on the Doncaster card have any history and even then, just two renewals have been contests in both cases.

 

Sandown:

General stats:  Leading trainers at this meeting during the last three years in terms of the flat events on the mixed cards: 4--Richard Hannon and Sir Michael Stoute, 3--John Gosden and 2 --Luca Cumani & Clive Cox.

Class 2 five furlong handicap scheduled for 1.15: Favourites have won four of the six renewals to date.  All six winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more.

‘Esher Cup’ scheduled for 1.50: Last year’s winning favourite brought an end to a barren spell for investors as the previous eight renewals had witnessed the demise of market leaders.  John Gosden has saddled tow of the last three winners and the trainer was ‘double handed’ at the five-day stage.

Group 2 one mile event scheduled for 2.20: Richard Hannon comes into the race on a five-timer, having saddled six of the last eight winners.  Richard was responsible for three of just ten entries at the penultimate stage.

Ten furlong event for maiden fillies scheduled for 2.55: The first four favourites had won this event before last year’s 9/4 market leader finished out of the frame.

One mile conditions event scheduled for 3.30: Four favourites have obliged during the last decade during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 6/1.

Class 3 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 4.05: Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston were both represented at the penultimate entry stage, each having saddled a couple of winners during the last seven years.

 

Chepstow:

General stats: James Best has ridden three winners form just eight assignments at Chepstow to date, whilst Jennie Candlish (26%) leads the represent trainers at the venue from a strike rate perspective.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.40: Five-year-olds have won secured five of the seven contests to date, whilst three of the last four favourites have obliged.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 5.15: Four of the last five winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more, whilst five renewals have slipped by since a successful market leader was recorded.  Six-year-olds have won three of the last five events.

Three mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 7.00: Twelve of the twenty-seven five-day declarations sat below the original handicap weights at the penultimate entry stage.

Class 5 maiden hurdle scheduled for 8.05: Five of the last ten events were secured by favourites.

 

Perth:

General stats:  Aidan Coleman has ridden five winners at Perth via just twelve rides, whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies has long since ruled the roost in the trainer sector at the venue.  That said, Gordon Elliott also raids this track to good effect these days. 

Class 4 maiden hurdle event scheduled for 2.00: Seven-year-olds have won the last four renewals, whilst three favourites prevailed during the period with a 7/2 chance scoring on the other occasion.

Three mile seven furlong handicap chase event scheduled for 2.35: The last nine winners have been returned at odds ranging between 5/1 and 25/1 with winning favourites conspicuous only by their absence.  Only two market leaders have finished in the frame during the last seven years.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.10: Six-year-olds have secured six of the last nine renewals, whilst vintage representatives come to the party on a four-timer.  Tutchec was potentially the only raider from the Nicky Richards stable, the yard having won this event three times in the last years.

Three mile three furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.50: Six-year-olds have secured four of the seven renewals, whilst favourites have won five contests thus far.  Five of the last six winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-12.

Four-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals in the closing bumper contest which is scheduled to be contested at 5.25.

 

Plumpton:

General stats:  Alan King’s return to form was highlighted by his Scottish Champion Hurdle success last week and Alan’s 37% strike rate here at Plumpton stands the closest inspection, especially given his LSP figure of nearly seventeen points.

Two mile five furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.35: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 via six contests.  The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 9/2 whilst three favourites have prevailed.

 

SATURDAY 28/04:

Doncaster:

General stats: Please take Friday’s general stats into account whilst I can also report good (5/12) figures for David Lanigan on Town Moor, with the stable having horses entered for Saturday at the time of writing. 

 

Haydock:

General stats: Four of the last nine runners saddled by Willie Haggas had won at the time of writing and with the trainer boasting 34% stats at Haydock in recent times, anything offered the green light by Willie should be kept on the right side.    

 

Leicester:

General stats:  Although Saeed Bin Suroor and Jeremy Noseda are two obvious trainers to consider at this venue via their fine figures, David Barron is another trainer to respect at Leicester.  Three of David’s last nine runners had won at the time of writing and his 40% strike rate at the Oadby venue warrants close inspection. 

 

Ripon:

General stats: Tom Tate has failed to make his usual fast start to the season but I’ll wager his yard will soon be firing in the winners and what better place to get the ball rolling than here at Ripon where Tom boasts an LSP figure of thirteen points via a 21% strike rate.

 

Sandown:

General stats: David Pipe is the only trainer (three gold medallists) to have saddled more than one NH winner at this mixed meeting during the last three years. Please refer to Friday’s general comments relating to flat trainer trends.

Scheduled 1.30 event: There are no trends for this event but I cannot let the contest slip by without praising the Sandown Executive for naming a race in the honour of trainer Josh Gifford who is sadly missed in racing circles throughout the land.

Class 2 nineteen furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.00: ‘Team Pipe’ have secured three of the eight renewals to date.  Two favourites have prevailed thus far whilst the last five gold medallists were burdened with a maximum weight of 11-3.

Class 3 Gold Cup Chase scheduled for 3.10: The last five winners have carried weights of 10-13 or less whilst eight-year-olds have secured four of the last eight contests.

‘Gordon Richards Stakes’ scheduled for 4.20: Four and five-year-olds have each won four renewals during the last decade during which time, two clear and one joint favourite have prevailed.  Only four the twelve favourites during the study period secured toteplacepot positions.

Class 2 one mile handicap scheduled for 4.50: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-4 during the last decade during which time, winning favourites have been conspicuous by their absence.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: With seventeen entries at the Punchestown Festival, one might have thought that Nicky Henderson might have swerved the smaller meetings this week but sure enough boasting a 34% strike rate at the venue, Nicky has found time to declare two potential runners at the five-day stage.

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1 reply
  1. Mondo Ray says:

    Anyone know what’s happened to Festival Trends? I’ve been trying to find out why I’ve not had access since last week, but my replies to the site and an email to Gavin have all been highlighted as undeliverable by DAEMONMAILER. Any info?

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